Tuesday: Georgia Hands Trump His Report Card

Rush LindellGeorgia is voting right now. Tonight, two big GOP runoffs, and the results are going to tell us a lot. Welcome to the Rush Lindell Show. I'm Rush Lindell.

ReaganAnd I'm Reagan. And Rush, this is one of those nights where the returns actually mean something beyond just who wins a primary.

Rush LindellThat's exactly right. We've got Burt Jones versus Rick Jackson for governor, Trump's guy against a billionaire who spent over $80 million of his own. of his own money trying to buy this thing.

ReaganAnd the Senate side might Collins versus Derek Dooley; Trump versus Kemp, basically-in candidate form.

Rush LindellProxy war-in June-in Georgia-again.

ReaganI mean"--

Rush LindellAnd the person watching all of this very

ReaganRight

Rush Lindellcarefully and very happily is Jon Ossoff sitting on thirty one million dollars cash on hand while Republicans hand him free opposition research.

ReaganLook, the math on the Senate majority makes Georgia a load-bearing seat for Republicans in November. What happens tonight shapes how much runway they have left.

Rush LindellSo we're going to break down both races. We're going to talk Trump's endorsement record, what it actually means when the scoreboard is live. We'll get into the Ossoff situation, which I'll be honest, is a gift that keeps giving.

ReaganAnd I want to push back on some of the easy narratives. There's a pattern people are reaching for, and I think it's worth... Worth pressure testing before we just declare Georgia a disaster.

Rush LindellOh, she'll make me earn it.

ReaganEvery time.

Rush LindellAJC and NBC News have live precinct results coming in as we talk. First up, what's actually on the ballot tonight and why it matters? Before we dive in, a quick reminder. We love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. So here's what's going on tonight in Georgia-and I mean tonight: votes are being counted right now, two races, two GOP nominations on the line, governor and US Senate-both decided by runoff.

ReaganThe AJC is tracking live precinct results across every county. This is not a preview anymore-it's decision night.

Rush LindellOn the governor's side, you've got Burt Jones, the sitting lieutenant governor, Trump's guy. against Rick Jackson, billionaire health care executive who dropped over $80 million of his own money into this race.

ReaganWow.

Rush Lindell$80 million!

ReaganAnd NBC News noted Jackson spent that without ever actually getting Trump's endorsement. He ran as a Trump-style outsider. The escalator entrance, the rags-to-riches biography, the whole aesthetic, just no stamp.

Rush LindellThe Vibes Without the Receipt

ReaganExactly.

Rush LindellAnd none of this happens if Brian Kemp isn't term limited out. He leaves and suddenly there's a power vacuum big enough to park eighty million dollars in. Jackson walks right through the door.

ReaganThat's the structural story. Kemp's absence didn't just open a seat; it scrambled the whole field. Brad Raffensperger and Chris Carr ran, neither made the runoff.

Rush LindellWhich tells you something about the gravity Jackson brought. He didn't win outright. Right, but he forced the Trump-endorsed lieutenant governor into overtime. That alone is a headline.

ReaganOn the Senate side, according to CBS News, it's Mike Collins against Derek Dooley, son of UGA coaching legend Vince Dooley. Whoever wins faces Jon Ossoff in November.

Rush LindellAnd Trump just endorsed Collins days before today. So you've now got two races where the president put his name on the line. Two runoffs, one night.

ReaganWhich sets up the actual question worth asking:

Rush LindellQuintin Tio, does a Trump endorsement still move voters when $80 million is coming at you from the other direction? So Jackson pulls out over a hundred million dollars – CNN is reporting that number now – descends from a glass elevator like a bargain basement Trump, runs wall-to-wall MAGA ads, and still can't get the man himself to pick up the phone. That's the whole play right there.

ReaganThe Glass Elevator is actually extraordinary. NBC News reported he did it deliberately, echoing Trump's escalator moment from 2016. He wanted the brand without the stamp.

Rush LindellI'm calling him Glass Elevator Rick because that's exactly what he is-Trump aesthetics, no Trump endorsement-and you know what? That distinction may cost him a governor's mansion.

ReaganThat said, Rush, is the "endorsement" the real variable here, or is a hundred million dollars in spending just too much for any endorsement to overcome?

Rush LindellReagan, that is the question tonight. Trump endorsed Jones back in August—Jones held on through the primary and here we are in a runoff.

ReaganRight, because eighty three million dollars in ads can move numbers even when the man at the top is against you. That is genuinely a stress test.

Rush LindellAnd now flip to the Senate lane—Trump stayed completely neutral through the whole primary—Collins at forty percent, Dooley at thirty percent—then drops an endorsement on Truth Social at midnight. Night two days before the runoff—called Dooley a nice person who nobody knows.

ReaganThat's not an endorsement of Collins; that's a dismissal of Dooley.

Rush LindellSame thing, different direction—and here's what makes the Senate race sharper: Kemp is all in on Dooley; Trump versus Kemp, one lane, one night. That's a factional fight, not just a primary.

ReaganWhich is why the Senate result may actually tell us more about who runs Georgia

Speaker 3than any other state.

ReaganRuns Georgia Republicans going forward than the governor's race does.

Rush LindellPaper beats scissors, or scissors beats paper. We find out tonight. And speaking of that Collins-Dooley fight, the Senate race has its own complications that go well beyond the endorsement matchup. So on the Senate side, same night, different mess entirely.

ReaganCollins came in first in May with about 40% to Dooley's 30%. But NBC News notes Trump didn't endorse Collins until days before tonight's runoff. That is a long time to leave your own guy hanging.

Rush LindellTwo days out, Sunday night, classic.

ReaganAnd the subtext of this whole race, Kemp-backed Dooley. So you've got Kemp's machine in one corner. A Trump stamp in the other. It's not really Collins versus Dooley; it's a Kemp versus Trump proxy fight playing out in the Senate lane.

Rush LindellWhich is a great way to arrive at a general election against a well funded incumbent very Very healthy.

ReaganRight, and MS NOW reported this morning that a prominent Georgia Republican strategist anonymously said if you went to a laboratory and tried to create the worst general election candidate for this state and environment possible, you couldn't do better than Mike Collins.

Rush LindellFrom inside the tent? That's a Republican saying that about the Republican who just got Trump's endorsement.

ReaganThat's the concern in a nutshell. Collins is a firmly MAGA brand. Trump won Georgia in 2024, but midterms are different math entirely, which

Rush LindellAnd Trump basically said in the endorsement, I don't know Derek Dooley, and neither does anyone. He dismissed his own party's governor-backed candidate in one sentence.

Reagantells you everything about where Kemp stands with this White House right now.

Rush LindellSo Republicans either rally behind a nominee their own strategists are nervous about. Or they hand Jon Ossoff a gift.

ReaganAnd Ossoff has been watching this circus for months, stacking cash the whole time. That's exactly where we go next.

Rush LindellSo while Republicans were busy lighting each other on fire, Ossoff was cashing checks. Thirty-one million dollars in bank as of March.

ReaganWow.

Rush LindellFourteen million raised in Q1 alone. The AJC called it a Georgia fundraising record. A record!

ReaganAnd the GOP's top contenders were at that same point measuring their hauls in the single-digit millions.

Rush LindellPocket change. He's not just ahead, he lapped him. And here's what kills me about this. Ossoff is the most exposed Democrat on the Senate map, only Democrat defending a seat in a state Trump won in 2024. That's the guy who should be sweating.

ReaganLook,

Rush LindellInstead, he's got a war chest that dwarfs the entire Republican field.

Reaganthe structural vulnerability is real. Trump won Georgia. Ossoff has to defend that ground. But MS. NOW reported it plainly. Republicans lost months fighting each other while Ossoff... Ossoff just kept building. Every week of that primary, every week of this runoff was free time for him. Free time and free money because nothing motivates Democratic small-dollar donors like a Republican's circular firing squad.

Rush LindellHe didn't earn this advantage. He didn't earn this advantage. The GOP handed it to him.

ReaganThat's fair, and the Senate leadership fund is already committed to $44 million against Ossoff, so the cavalry is coming, but you cannot spot someone $31 million and expect And expect an easy race.

Rush Lindell44 million, okay, and Ossoff's average donation, 38 bucks. He's got 400,000 people writing him checks. That's not just money, that's an army.

ReaganWhich is why the nominee tonight actually matters. You need a candidate who can consolidate, not one who gives Ossoff a villain to fundraise against.

Rush LindellAnd based on everything we've covered tonight, that's not a guarantee.

ReaganNot even close.

Rush LindellThe smarter play, pick someone who can actually win a general. Georgia Republicans have had some interesting ideas about that.

ReaganYou could say that. There's a pattern here that goes back a few years.

Rush LindellOh, there is absolutely a pattern and it rhymes. So speaking of Georgia Republicans and free gifts to Jon Ossoff, let me run you through the highlight reel. 2021, Republicans had two Senate seats to defend. Winning either one kept the majority. They lost both. And part of the reason Trump spent the runoff campaign telling GOP voters the election was rigged. You know what happens when you tell your own people their vote doesn't count? They don't vote.

ReaganThe Atlanta Journal-Constitution actually reported that Republican turnout dipped and flip the Senate. That's not a theory.

Rush LindellTen twenty twenty two—Trump hands Warnock a gift wrapped in a Heisman Trophy. Herschel Walker—great guy, legendary player—loses to Raphael Warnock by nearly three points. Wikipedia has the margin at two point eight percent, and the Georgia Public Broadcasting data showed roughly one in two. One in ten Kemp voters just skipped Walker on the ballot entirely.

ReaganTo be fair, some of that was candidate specific baggage; you can't put everything on the endorsement.

Rush LindellReagan, a guy who hadn't held office, never run for anything, whose personal life became a Senate debate. That's not candidate baggage. That's a carry on, a checked bag and something they found at security.

ReaganOkay, fair.

Rush LindellThe pattern is real. Football player, billionaire, fraud claims right before a runoff,

ReaganMm-hmm.

Rush LindellGeorgia Republicans keep bringing a name to a knife fight, and then acting surprised when the knife wins.

ReaganBut here's where I push back. The pattern doesn't mean Collins or the governor nominee is automatically doomed tonight. Patterns break, candidates matter.

Rush LindellCompletely agree. The question is whether tonight is the first page of a new chapter. were just another entry in a very long book.

ReaganAnd that answer matters a lot more than people realize. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority right now, defending 22 of 35 seats this cycle. Georgia isn't optional.

Rush LindellIt's the only state Trump won in 2024 where a Democratic senator is on the ballot. You cannot leave points on the field, not here, not this year. Ha, ha, ha, ha. So what does all of this actually mean tonight for the map for November for the majority?

ReaganLet me put the math on the table. Republicans hold fifty three forty seven right now. They can lose two seats net and still hold fifty one. Georgia isn't optional insurance. It's a load bearing wall.

Rush LindellAnd here's the thing that nobody on the Republican side wanted to say out loud six months ago. This was supposed to be their easiest pickup.

ReaganAccording to Time magazine, Georgia is the only state Trump won in twenty twenty four where a Democratic senator is up for reelection. One state. That's it.

Rush LindellOne-and they spent five months turning it into a demolition derby.

ReaganAnd now whoever walks out of tonight's runoff is going up against someone sitting on thirty one million dollars cash on hand, per AJC reporting from April. The Cook Political Report already shifted Georgia to Lean Democrat this spring. Spring!

Rush LindellCook shifted it to "lean" Democrat on a red Trump One State. That's not a red flag, that's a five alarm fire.

ReaganLook, the race is still competitive. Ossoff won his seat by one point two points in twenty twenty one, and the electorate in a regular November cycle is structurally tougher for him. That's real. But he's been campaigning full time while Republicans were busy taking shots at each other.

Rush LindellEvery dollar spent in this runoff was a dollar not saved. Saved for Ossoff-every attack ad between Collins and Dooley is a clip Ossoff's team is going to run in October.

ReaganIf Democrats...

Rush LindellLose Georgia? U.S. polling data analysis says they'd need to sweep Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire just to hit 50. That's the backup plan. It's not a plan.

ReaganSo tonight isn't just about who wins a runoff. Tonight tells us how damaged the winner's walking in.

Rush LindellAnd whether the party can consolidate around them fast enough to close a $31 million gap before November.

ReaganThat's the report card Republicans should be reading tonight. Not the celebration, the damage assessment. So the verdict is in or nearly there. If Trump's picks hold tonight, Burt Jones and Mike Collins are your nominees. Two-for-two on endorsements, that's the scorecard.

Rush LindellIt is, and Jones winning is actually the cleaner story. Trump-endorsed incumbent lieutenant governor beats a billionaire. That tracks.

ReaganGlass Elevator Rick spent a fortune, and if it wasn't enough, that's on him.

Rush LindellCollins, though, is where it gets complicated. He wins tonight, which Trump gets credit for. But Republican operatives are already worried, openly worried, that the race shifts from being about Ossoff's voting record to being about Collins himself.

ReaganThey created exactly the candidate their strategists said you couldn't manufacture in a lab, and now they have to win with him.

Rush LindellThat's the thing: the party base chose him. They own that.

ReaganSo here's my question, and I want an honest answer: can Collins consolidate Kemp's wing? Being fast enough? Ossoff's got a $31 million head start and the donor infrastructure to double it before October.

Rush LindellThat is the only question that matters. Kemp supporters don't despise Collins, they just didn't choose him. That's a workable gap, if the nominee moves fast.

ReaganFast means immediately, not after a victory lap. Day one.

Rush LindellRight, and the first post-runoff fundraising number will tell you if that consolidation is happening. is happening or not, watch that filing.

ReaganThat's what I'm watching too.

Rush LindellMm-hmm.

ReaganFirst general election poll. First fundraising quarter. Those are the actual truth tellers here, not the speeches.

Rush LindellAnd on the Democratic side, Ossoff doesn't need to do anything tonight except not make news. He's already positioned.

ReaganWhich, knowing Georgia Republicans, they'll try their best to help him with.

Rush LindellLook, the math is brutally steep, but the path exists. It just requires the party to behave like adults for five straight months.

ReaganFive whole months I'll believe it when I see it Keep watching tonight

Speaker 4All right, Georgia runoff night, two races, one verdict, and the verdict is: Trump's endorsement still costs something to fight.

Rush LindellWhat tonight proved is that Ossoff's thirty-one million dollar advantage didn't come from nowhere. Republicans handed it to him one bruising primary week at a time.

Speaker 4Glass Elevator Rick spent eighty three million dollars trying to buy the look without the receipt. Seat will see if that was enough

Rush LindellAnd the Senate race, Collins versus Dooley, that Kemp versus Trump proxy fight finally has a winner. Now comes the hard part.

Speaker 4The hard part being, you know, actually beating Ossoff in November

Rush LindellRight. Watch the first post-runoff fundraising filing. That's your real November indicator.

Speaker 4Bottom line, Georgia is winnable, but only if Republicans stop donating to Ossoff's cause by fighting each other.

Rush LindellThat's the show. If this episode made you think, subscribe, leave a five-star review, and send it to someone who needs to hear it.

Speaker 4New episodes every weekday. We'll be back tomorrow. Thanks for riding with us.