Wednesday: Trump Hits 33 and MAGA Starts Flinching

Rush LindellWelcome in. I'm Rush Lindell.

ReaganAnd I'm Reagan. Good to have you with us.

Rush LindellOh, man, we've got a stacked hour tonight. Fresh polling just dropped, and it is not pretty for the White House.

Reagan33%, that's the number everybody's talking about this morning.

Rush LindellI'm sure the press shop already has a spin ready.

ReaganWe'll get into whether that's noise or something real.

Rush LindellAnd the MAGA base, cracking or just letting off steam?

ReaganWe've argued that one before, Rush. Tonight we test it against new numbers.

Rush LindellSettle is a strong word.

ReaganWe'll see.

Rush LindellAnd over in the Middle East, support for the Iran war is sliding fast among Trump's own voters. I've already got a name for it.

ReaganOf course you do.

Rush LindellWait for it.

ReaganSave it for the segment.

Rush LindellFine. But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

ReaganGood partner to have around when the polling's this shaky.

Rush LindellSo Reagan, one poll or a pattern?

ReaganFive pollsters say pattern, Rush. Let's start there.

Rush LindellBefore we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. 33.

ReaganThere it is.

Rush LindellReuters and Ipsos poll released Tuesday, 64% disapprove. That's the number. That's the whole segment right there.

ReaganDown two points in two weeks, and it's the floor of this entire second term.

Rush LindellThe floor. Not a bad week, the floor.

ReaganBefore you run with that, this was an online survey, 1,166 adults, margin of error three. One poll isn't a verdict.

Rush LindellAh, here we go. Reagan's already reaching for the asterisk.

ReaganI'm reaching for accuracy. But fine, the Washington Times ran the historical context, and 33 ties his own floor from December 2017. First term, he climbed out of that one.

Rush LindellWait, the exact same number?

ReaganThe exact same number. Mm-hmm.

Rush LindellSo he's been here before, survived it, and got reelected anyway. Doesn't exactly sound like a five-alarm fire to me.

ReaganExcept Forbes has him opening this term at 52% in the New York Times average. That's a 19-point slide from where he started, not where he's always been.

Rush Lindell19 points is a number. It's not a-

ReaganA crisis?

Rush LindellI was gonna say trend, but go ahead, take the bait.

ReaganIt's not the size that should worry you, it's the shape. One poll, sure, ignore it, but Reuters, Financial Times, AP-NORC, five separate outfits are all clustering in the low to mid-30s.

Rush LindellFive pollsters agreeing is called an industry, not evidence.

ReaganThat's a bit much, even for you.

Rush LindellI said what I said.

ReaganGas prices and an Iran war nobody thinks is ending. 80% of the country expects that fight to drag on, per that same Reuters number.

Rush LindellNow, that's real. That's the part that moves the needle, not some online panel of 1,000 people typing on their phones.

ReaganSo which is it? Noise or a pattern five different rooms full of pollsters keep finding?

Rush LindellI say noise, you say pattern. Let's see who's still saying that in November.

ReaganSpeaking of what people were saying weeks ago, didn't somebody on this show call this exact erosion venting?

Rush LindellSpeaking of arguments we've had, three weeks back, the Alex Jones callers demanding impeachment. My line was venting.

ReaganMine was structural. Let's actually grade it, no vibes.

Rush LindellGo ahead, grade me.

ReaganPartial credit. The Iran venting was real, but identification numbers moved too, Rush.

Rush LindellMoved how much?

ReaganNBC News polling, covered by Newsweek, has Republicans picking MAGA over the party label dropping from 57% in April to 50% in December.

Rush LindellWow. Seven points. That's a real slide.

ReaganAnd Politico's poll found more than a third of 2024 Trump voters won't even call themselves MAGA Republicans.

Rush LindellA third of his own voters won't wear the hat. Meanwhile, The Daily Beast slapped "Bombshell" on this like it's a movie trailer.

ReaganBombshell or not, the number under it is real. Just 15% now say they approve strongly, down from 19.

Rush LindellComing soon to a theater near you, MAGA Crumbles Part 2.

ReaganFunny, but it doesn't erase your point on venting.

Rush LindellFine. Venting explains a dip. It doesn't explain people dropping the brand entirely.

ReaganThat's the difference. Venting snaps back with the next cycle. Nobody re-adopts a label they already walked away from.

Rush LindellI'll take that. Half take. The floor still holds above 45.

ReaganThen put your number on March.

Rush Lindell45. You?

ReaganBelow 40. Mark it down.

Rush LindellDeal. Loser buys the coffee.

ReaganIf the base is softening, the honest question is what's doing the softening?

Rush LindellNot cable shouting matches. Something colder.

ReaganSomething that shows up on a gas receipt.

Rush LindellForget identity labels for a second. There's a number that should scare the RNC more than any label fight.

ReaganWhich one?

Rush LindellReuters and Ipsos found 38% of voters trust Democrats to handle the economy. Only 35% trust Republicans. First Democratic edge on that question in about a decade.

ReaganThree points. That's inside the poll's own margin of error.

Rush LindellNobody at the pump is running a significance test, Reagan. They're doing math on $40 to fill a tank that used to cost 30.

ReaganFair, but three points inside the noise isn't a landslide. It's a coin flip with better branding.

Rush LindellCall it what you will. Forbes ties the slide to two specific shocks, the Liberation Day tariffs and the Iran war. Gas prices have climbed since that conflict started.

ReaganThat's the exact timeline Forbes drew. Hard to argue with the receipts.

Rush LindellCost of living beats every culture war fight on the ballot every single time. Doesn't matter what the panels are screaming about on cable.

ReaganI'd frame it differently. Voters aren't switching ideology, they're assigning blame to whoever's holding the wheel when the bill shows up.

Rush LindellAnd right now, that's Republicans.

ReaganWhich is exactly why the war stops being foreign policy and starts being a household budget story.

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Rush LindellAnd just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

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ReaganSo if voters are blaming the pump on the war-

Rush LindellThen the war itself stops being background noise real fast

ReaganWhich is where this actually gets uncomfortable for the White House.

Rush LindellAll right. Building on that gas pump pain, here's the number that stops me cold. 80%.

Reagan80% of what?

Rush Lindell80% of the country, according to Forbes off that Reuters/Ipsos read. They think this Iran fight will go on for an extended period of time. Only 16% think it wraps in a few weeks.

ReaganWow. And that 80 includes 71% of Republicans. Same Forbes number.

Rush LindellRight. And before you even get to the AP-NORC read, approval of his Iran handling dropped six points since June. Among Republicans, 71 down to 61.

Reagan10 points in two months.

Rush Lindell10 points. And back in March, half this show was saying MAGA loves this war.

ReaganYou said loves, I said tolerates.

Rush LindellSemantics. Watch this. The Hill, citing Politico's numbers, has Trump voters willing to keep fighting if prices rise, dropping from 50% in May to 37 in July.

Reagan13 points is real movement, but careful what you're measuring. That's a price objection, not a mission objection.

Rush LindellI'm calling it the sticker shock slide. Write it down. We're calling it that in March.

ReaganAnother prediction to keep you honest.

Rush LindellI like being on record.

ReaganYou like being loud on record.

Rush LindellPfft. Same thing on this show.

ReaganOpposing the cost isn't opposing the cause. Two different numbers, and the coverage is about to treat them as one.

Rush LindellOh, don't get me started on how they're covering these polls. Watch this. I'm doing the four network read on the exact same poll.

ReaganOh, no.

Rush LindellChannel one, Trump in freefall. Channel two, GOP cracks widen. Channel three, is this the end? Same two-point wobble. Same margin of error.

ReaganFour gyrons, one data set.

Rush LindellAnd channel four is running Trump surges because they found a subgroup where he's up three.

ReaganThat's the racket. But don't let the theater fool you. Gallup, Reuters and Ipsos-

Rush LindellMm-hmm

Reagan... AP-NORC, YouGov. Four different shops, four different samples, same direction.

Rush LindellDown.

ReaganDown. Four separate methodologies drawing the same line.

Rush LindellWhat gets me is the same outlets that spent 2024 telling us polling was broken-

ReaganAre now treating one Reuters/Ipsos online sample of 1,166 adults like scripture.

Rush Lindell1,166 people.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellSuddenly it's carved in stone.

ReaganThe inconsistency's real, and I won't defend the coverage, but sloppy coverage doesn't erase a consistent number underneath it.

Rush LindellFine. Trend's real. I still don't think half these anchors know what margin of error means.

ReaganProbably not. Doesn't change the math.

Rush LindellSpeaking of math-

ReaganWait till you hear what this does to House seats.

Rush LindellBuilding on that, let's talk seats, not vibes. Cook Political Report already tips the House back to Democrats.

ReaganFive points on the generic ballot. Historically, anything over three flips control.

Rush LindellBut where's the enthusiasm gap, Reagan? Republicans still sit at 87% approval inside their own party. That's not crumbling. That's Tuesday.

ReaganThat's normal polarization. The number that worries strategists isn't the base-

Rush LindellHmm

Reagan... it's independents.

Rush LindellGo on.

ReaganIndependents approvals near 34%. Back in 2018, before Democrats picked up 41 seats, independents had Trump around 36%, two points below now.

Rush LindellTwo points below the number that produced a wave.

ReaganRight. AP-NORC has it sharper. Forty-two percent say their vote is against Trump. Twenty-two percent say it's for him. Twenty percent still undecided.

Rush LindellUndecided is the whole ballgame. Approval measures feelings. Turnout counts who actually shows up in November.

ReaganFeelings drive turnout, though. Nobody knocks doors for a candidate they're lukewarm on.

Rush LindellI've watched enthusiasm gaps evaporate by October. The base comes home. Eighty-seven doesn't move. It just gets louder.

ReaganThen explain the independent exodus. That's not base turnout. That's the group deciding the margin.

Rush LindellMargin's my whole point. Small margins, big swings. One good week, and this number crawls back.

ReaganMaybe. But right now, the math favors Democrats retaking the House, and every week this holds locks it in tighter.

Rush LindellWe'll see who's right when the votes get counted, not the pollsters. Building on that seat math, what actually pulls his number back up?

ReaganOne condition, really. Either the Iran war winds down or gas drops under three bucks. Pick one.

Rush LindellOr maybe nothing does. Maybe thirty-three just becomes home.

ReaganCould be. But there's still one card the White House hasn't lost.

Rush LindellImmigration.

ReaganExactly. AP-NORC's summer read had immigration running ahead of the economy and Iran as the strongest issue left for him, even with enforcement numbers sliding.

Rush LindellThe last lever they've got.

ReaganAnd they'll pull it hard between now and November.

Rush LindellAll right. On record, my Labor Day number, thirty-five. Two points up, because second-term presidents rarely stay this low for long.

ReaganI'll take the other side. Thirty-one, maybe lower. The independent bleed we flagged doesn't reverse just because gas eases a little.

Rush LindellFour points apart. That's an actual bet.

ReaganWrite it down. Loser buys lunch.

Rush LindellDeal. And if I'm wrong, I'll say so on air. No dodging.

ReaganSame. Labor Day. Hold us to it.

Rush LindellSo there it is, thirty-three.

ReaganSame number Trump hit back in December twenty seventeen. He climbed out of that hole then.

Rush LindellMaybe, but the Iran war numbers moving against him now feel different.

ReaganWe flagged five pollsters landing in that same range. Hard to call that noise.

Rush LindellFine. I say the numbers stuck through Labor Day.

ReaganI say it ticks up two points once gas prices ease.

Rush LindellWe'll hold each other to that.

ReaganGood hour, Rush.

Rush LindellEvery hour is a good hour here. If you're new, subscribe, leave five stars, tell a friend who needs this.

ReaganNew episodes drop every weekday.

Rush LindellThanks for riding with us today.

ReaganSee you tomorrow.