Wednesday: Trump Hits 33 and MAGA Starts Flinching

Rush Lindell: Welcome in. I'm Rush Lindell. Reagan: And I'm Reagan. Good to have you with us. Rush Lindell: Oh, man, we've got a stacked hour tonight. Fresh polling just dropped, and it is not pretty for the White House. Reagan: 33%, that's the number everybody's talking about this morning. Rush Lindell: I'm sure the press shop already has a spin ready. Reagan: We'll get into whether that's noise or something real. Rush Lindell: And the MAGA base, cracking or just letting off steam? Reagan: We've argued that one before, Rush. Tonight we test it against new numbers. Rush Lindell: Settle is a strong word. Reagan: We'll see. Rush Lindell: And over in the Middle East, support for the Iran war is sliding fast among Trump's own voters. I've already got a name for it. Reagan: Of course you do. Rush Lindell: Wait for it. Reagan: Save it for the segment. Rush Lindell: Fine. But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997. Reagan: Good partner to have around when the polling's this shaky. Rush Lindell: So Reagan, one poll or a pattern? Reagan: Five pollsters say pattern, Rush. Let's start there. Rush Lindell: Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. 33. Reagan: There it is. Rush Lindell: Reuters and Ipsos poll released Tuesday, 64% disapprove. That's the number. That's the whole segment right there. Reagan: Down two points in two weeks, and it's the floor of this entire second term. Rush Lindell: The floor. Not a bad week, the floor. Reagan: Before you run with that, this was an online survey, 1,166 adults, margin of error three. One poll isn't a verdict. Rush Lindell: Ah, here we go. Reagan's already reaching for the asterisk. Reagan: I'm reaching for accuracy. But fine, the Washington Times ran the historical context, and 33 ties his own floor from December 2017. First term, he climbed out of that one. Rush Lindell: Wait, the exact same number? Reagan: The exact same number. Mm-hmm. Rush Lindell: So he's been here before, survived it, and got reelected anyway. Doesn't exactly sound like a five-alarm fire to me. Reagan: Except Forbes has him opening this term at 52% in the New York Times average. That's a 19-point slide from where he started, not where he's always been. Rush Lindell: 19 points is a number. It's not a- Reagan: A crisis? Rush Lindell: I was gonna say trend, but go ahead, take the bait. Reagan: It's not the size that should worry you, it's the shape. One poll, sure, ignore it, but Reuters, Financial Times, AP-NORC, five separate outfits are all clustering in the low to mid-30s. Rush Lindell: Five pollsters agreeing is called an industry, not evidence. Reagan: That's a bit much, even for you. Rush Lindell: I said what I said. Reagan: Gas prices and an Iran war nobody thinks is ending. 80% of the country expects that fight to drag on, per that same Reuters number. Rush Lindell: Now, that's real. That's the part that moves the needle, not some online panel of 1,000 people typing on their phones. Reagan: So which is it? Noise or a pattern five different rooms full of pollsters keep finding? Rush Lindell: I say noise, you say pattern. Let's see who's still saying that in November. Reagan: Speaking of what people were saying weeks ago, didn't somebody on this show call this exact erosion venting? Rush Lindell: Speaking of arguments we've had, three weeks back, the Alex Jones callers demanding impeachment. My line was venting. Reagan: Mine was structural. Let's actually grade it, no vibes. Rush Lindell: Go ahead, grade me. Reagan: Partial credit. The Iran venting was real, but identification numbers moved too, Rush. Rush Lindell: Moved how much? Reagan: NBC News polling, covered by Newsweek, has Republicans picking MAGA over the party label dropping from 57% in April to 50% in December. Rush Lindell: Wow. Seven points. That's a real slide. Reagan: And Politico's poll found more than a third of 2024 Trump voters won't even call themselves MAGA Republicans. Rush Lindell: A third of his own voters won't wear the hat. Meanwhile, The Daily Beast slapped "Bombshell" on this like it's a movie trailer. Reagan: Bombshell or not, the number under it is real. Just 15% now say they approve strongly, down from 19. Rush Lindell: Coming soon to a theater near you, MAGA Crumbles Part 2. Reagan: Funny, but it doesn't erase your point on venting. Rush Lindell: Fine. Venting explains a dip. It doesn't explain people dropping the brand entirely. Reagan: That's the difference. Venting snaps back with the next cycle. Nobody re-adopts a label they already walked away from. Rush Lindell: I'll take that. Half take. The floor still holds above 45. Reagan: Then put your number on March. Rush Lindell: 45. You? Reagan: Below 40. Mark it down. Rush Lindell: Deal. Loser buys the coffee. Reagan: If the base is softening, the honest question is what's doing the softening? Rush Lindell: Not cable shouting matches. Something colder. Reagan: Something that shows up on a gas receipt. Rush Lindell: Forget identity labels for a second. There's a number that should scare the RNC more than any label fight. Reagan: Which one? Rush Lindell: Reuters and Ipsos found 38% of voters trust Democrats to handle the economy. Only 35% trust Republicans. First Democratic edge on that question in about a decade. Reagan: Three points. That's inside the poll's own margin of error. Rush Lindell: Nobody at the pump is running a significance test, Reagan. They're doing math on $40 to fill a tank that used to cost 30. Reagan: Fair, but three points inside the noise isn't a landslide. It's a coin flip with better branding. Rush Lindell: Call it what you will. Forbes ties the slide to two specific shocks, the Liberation Day tariffs and the Iran war. Gas prices have climbed since that conflict started. Reagan: That's the exact timeline Forbes drew. Hard to argue with the receipts. Rush Lindell: Cost of living beats every culture war fight on the ballot every single time. Doesn't matter what the panels are screaming about on cable. Reagan: I'd frame it differently. Voters aren't switching ideology, they're assigning blame to whoever's holding the wheel when the bill shows up. Rush Lindell: And right now, that's Republicans. Reagan: Which is exactly why the war stops being foreign policy and starts being a household budget story. Rush Lindell: And speaking of budgets getting squeezed, this is exactly why I like having something in my hand that doesn't answer to any of this. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes. Reagan: Here's what you need to know. Priced below spot. Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, new customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear. This is a 24-hour offer only. Rush Lindell: And just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens. Reagan: This isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand. Rush Lindell: Go to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.com. Reagan: So if voters are blaming the pump on the war- Rush Lindell: Then the war itself stops being background noise real fast Reagan: Which is where this actually gets uncomfortable for the White House. Rush Lindell: All right. Building on that gas pump pain, here's the number that stops me cold. 80%. Reagan: 80% of what? Rush Lindell: 80% of the country, according to Forbes off that Reuters/Ipsos read. They think this Iran fight will go on for an extended period of time. Only 16% think it wraps in a few weeks. Reagan: Wow. And that 80 includes 71% of Republicans. Same Forbes number. Rush Lindell: Right. And before you even get to the AP-NORC read, approval of his Iran handling dropped six points since June. Among Republicans, 71 down to 61. Reagan: 10 points in two months. Rush Lindell: 10 points. And back in March, half this show was saying MAGA loves this war. Reagan: You said loves, I said tolerates. Rush Lindell: Semantics. Watch this. The Hill, citing Politico's numbers, has Trump voters willing to keep fighting if prices rise, dropping from 50% in May to 37 in July. Reagan: 13 points is real movement, but careful what you're measuring. That's a price objection, not a mission objection. Rush Lindell: I'm calling it the sticker shock slide. Write it down. We're calling it that in March. Reagan: Another prediction to keep you honest. Rush Lindell: I like being on record. Reagan: You like being loud on record. Rush Lindell: Pfft. Same thing on this show. Reagan: Opposing the cost isn't opposing the cause. Two different numbers, and the coverage is about to treat them as one. Rush Lindell: Oh, don't get me started on how they're covering these polls. Watch this. I'm doing the four network read on the exact same poll. Reagan: Oh, no. Rush Lindell: Channel one, Trump in freefall. Channel two, GOP cracks widen. Channel three, is this the end? Same two-point wobble. Same margin of error. Reagan: Four gyrons, one data set. Rush Lindell: And channel four is running Trump surges because they found a subgroup where he's up three. Reagan: That's the racket. But don't let the theater fool you. Gallup, Reuters and Ipsos- Rush Lindell: Mm-hmm Reagan: ... AP-NORC, YouGov. Four different shops, four different samples, same direction. Rush Lindell: Down. Reagan: Down. Four separate methodologies drawing the same line. Rush Lindell: What gets me is the same outlets that spent 2024 telling us polling was broken- Reagan: Are now treating one Reuters/Ipsos online sample of 1,166 adults like scripture. Rush Lindell: 1,166 people. Reagan: Right. Rush Lindell: Suddenly it's carved in stone. Reagan: The inconsistency's real, and I won't defend the coverage, but sloppy coverage doesn't erase a consistent number underneath it. Rush Lindell: Fine. Trend's real. I still don't think half these anchors know what margin of error means. Reagan: Probably not. Doesn't change the math. Rush Lindell: Speaking of math- Reagan: Wait till you hear what this does to House seats. Rush Lindell: Building on that, let's talk seats, not vibes. Cook Political Report already tips the House back to Democrats. Reagan: Five points on the generic ballot. Historically, anything over three flips control. Rush Lindell: But where's the enthusiasm gap, Reagan? Republicans still sit at 87% approval inside their own party. That's not crumbling. That's Tuesday. Reagan: That's normal polarization. The number that worries strategists isn't the base- Rush Lindell: Hmm Reagan: ... it's independents. Rush Lindell: Go on. Reagan: Independents approvals near 34%. Back in 2018, before Democrats picked up 41 seats, independents had Trump around 36%, two points below now. Rush Lindell: Two points below the number that produced a wave. Reagan: Right. AP-NORC has it sharper. Forty-two percent say their vote is against Trump. Twenty-two percent say it's for him. Twenty percent still undecided. Rush Lindell: Undecided is the whole ballgame. Approval measures feelings. Turnout counts who actually shows up in November. Reagan: Feelings drive turnout, though. Nobody knocks doors for a candidate they're lukewarm on. Rush Lindell: I've watched enthusiasm gaps evaporate by October. The base comes home. Eighty-seven doesn't move. It just gets louder. Reagan: Then explain the independent exodus. That's not base turnout. That's the group deciding the margin. Rush Lindell: Margin's my whole point. Small margins, big swings. One good week, and this number crawls back. Reagan: Maybe. But right now, the math favors Democrats retaking the House, and every week this holds locks it in tighter. Rush Lindell: We'll see who's right when the votes get counted, not the pollsters. Building on that seat math, what actually pulls his number back up? Reagan: One condition, really. Either the Iran war winds down or gas drops under three bucks. Pick one. Rush Lindell: Or maybe nothing does. Maybe thirty-three just becomes home. Reagan: Could be. But there's still one card the White House hasn't lost. Rush Lindell: Immigration. Reagan: Exactly. AP-NORC's summer read had immigration running ahead of the economy and Iran as the strongest issue left for him, even with enforcement numbers sliding. Rush Lindell: The last lever they've got. Reagan: And they'll pull it hard between now and November. Rush Lindell: All right. On record, my Labor Day number, thirty-five. Two points up, because second-term presidents rarely stay this low for long. Reagan: I'll take the other side. Thirty-one, maybe lower. The independent bleed we flagged doesn't reverse just because gas eases a little. Rush Lindell: Four points apart. That's an actual bet. Reagan: Write it down. Loser buys lunch. Rush Lindell: Deal. And if I'm wrong, I'll say so on air. No dodging. Reagan: Same. Labor Day. Hold us to it. Rush Lindell: So there it is, thirty-three. Reagan: Same number Trump hit back in December twenty seventeen. He climbed out of that hole then. Rush Lindell: Maybe, but the Iran war numbers moving against him now feel different. Reagan: We flagged five pollsters landing in that same range. Hard to call that noise. Rush Lindell: Fine. I say the numbers stuck through Labor Day. Reagan: I say it ticks up two points once gas prices ease. Rush Lindell: We'll hold each other to that. Reagan: Good hour, Rush. Rush Lindell: Every hour is a good hour here. If you're new, subscribe, leave five stars, tell a friend who needs this. Reagan: New episodes drop every weekday. Rush Lindell: Thanks for riding with us today. Reagan: See you tomorrow.