Tuesday: Iowa's Gap, Georgia's Million, Real Warning?

Rush LindellThe ballots are in. Actual ballots, Reagan. Not polls, not vibes, not some guy on cable with a whiteboard.

ReaganYou sound like a man who's been waiting to say that all morning.

Rush LindellSince sunrise. I'm Rush Lindell. This is the show where Reagan keeps me honest, brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leaders since 1997.

ReaganFair. Back on October 8th, we argued panic or problem for Republicans, and all we had was surveys.

Rush LindellNow we have lines out the door. Early in-person voting opened in Iowa and North Carolina, and Democrats are far ahead of their 2024 pace.

ReaganAnd Georgia has passed 940,000 in-person ballots in week one.

Rush Lindell940,000. Say it slowly, it sounds even scarier.

ReaganOr it sounds like people voting early. That's the whole fight.

Rush LindellEarly voters are a skewed sample. I'll die on that hill.

ReaganHold on. The pattern held from the polls to the primaries, and I'll make that case.

Rush LindellOh, you will.

ReaganCount on it, and I'll bring the evidence, not just the adjectives.

Rush LindellBring it. I dare you.

ReaganHere are the rules: each of us grades the other's read at the end, and then you, the listener, pick the winner.

Rush LindellNo curve, no mercy.

ReaganBumper music then. First stop is Iowa and that headline gap.

Rush LindellRoll it. Iowa, day one. Roughly 150,000 absentee ballot requests and more than 17,000 votes actually cast.

ReaganWhere's that from?

Rush LindellCBS 2 Iowa, citing the Iowa Secretary of State, and they say Democrats outpace Republicans and no party voters.

ReaganOkay, so there's your gap.

Rush LindellHold on. Same story, same paragraph. CBS 2 Iowa calls that a common early voting trend. Common. Reagan, the people who show up on day one always look like that. They're the true believers. They'd vote at midnight if you let them.

ReaganHmm, fair.

Rush LindellThank you.

ReaganI'll even give you more. 17,000 votes is thin. One day tells you who was standing at the door when it opened and nothing about who's coming Thursday.

Rush LindellSay it again, slower, for the folks on the left.

ReaganBut Rush, you're hiding behind the word common. The topic framing for this show cites a 23-Point Democratic gap in Iowa early voting. Common trends are usually a few points. 23 is a canyon.

Rush LindellIs it? Which day? Which ballots?

ReaganThat's my point. If the trend is routine, why is the margin this big?

Rush LindellBecause the sample is tiny and lopsided. You take a handful of eager voters, you hold them up, and you call it a map of the state.

ReaganAnd if Republicans were equally eager, they'd have shown up in that same handful.

Rush LindellOr they're the type who vote on Election Day wearing a hat, a day late and proud of it.

ReaganMaybe, but you can't wave away a gap that size by calling it common.

Rush LindellWatch me. I'm doing it right now.

ReaganYou are, badly.

Rush LindellBoldly. There's a difference.

ReaganHere's what I'd want to see next: not just who requested, but who actually returned. A request is an intention. A vote is a fact.

Rush LindellNow, that's a fair test, and I'd take it. 150,000 requests next to 17,000 votes tells me this story has barely started.

ReaganFine. The Iowa number is a headline, not a verdict. I'll give you that much, and you give me that it's not nothing.

Rush LindellI give you it's not nothing. I do not give you a wave.

ReaganWait, North Carolina is where this gets harder for you, isn't it? The pace there is a different story.

Rush LindellBummer. Fine. Let's go see if my skewed sample survives a state that actually moves. North Carolina. Iowa gave us a day. North Carolina gives us a pace, and the pace is ugly for my side if you read it the way Reagan wants to.

ReaganWhich way is that?

Rush LindellFace value. ABC11 reported this week that North Carolina voters are heading to the polls well ahead of the last midterm election. Well ahead.

ReaganAnd Democrats are far ahead of their own 2024 pace there, both things at once.

Rush LindellOh, I saw it. I'm not gonna pretend I didn't.

ReaganThen here's my problem with the shrug, Rush. A higher pace overall tells you people are showing up. It doesn't tell you who they are.

Rush LindellHold on. Say that again slowly.

ReaganTurnout up? Fine. Whose turnout?

Rush LindellThat's my point exactly. You just made it for me. A surge is a surge. It's a bigger crowd at the door, and nobody checked the guest list.

ReaganExcept the guest list is the one thing we do have. Democrats are ahead of where they were in 2024. That's a partisan signal, not a generic one.

Rush LindellAhead of their own early pace. Doesn't mean ahead of Republicans on Election Day. Some of those folks just moved their vote up a few weeks.

ReaganAnd some of them might be voters who showed up for the first time. You can't rule that out either, Rush. Neither of us can see inside the line.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly why I keep saying skewed. We're both guessing at the guest list.

ReaganMaybe. I'll give you that it's possible.

Rush LindellPossible. She said possible. Mark the tape.

ReaganDon't get comfortable. Bumper's coming, and Georgia's next.

Rush LindellBumper. On to Georgia and its million-vote pace. Georgia. Fox 5 Atlanta says more than 940,000 ballots were cast in week one. On pace for a million. A million, Reagan. Somebody alert the marching band.

ReaganYou're mocking it, but you're also not disputing it.

Rush LindellOf course not. Turnout is real. I'm not gonna stand here and say Georgians are faking it.

ReaganThank you.

Rush LindellI'm saying a million is a headline with no party label stapled to it. Big number, zero information.

ReaganHold on. That's my line, and I'll tell you why. Volume is not a partisan breakdown. 940,000 people voted. That tells me Georgians showed up. It doesn't tell me for whom.

Rush LindellWait, you're agreeing with me?

ReaganOn that one sentence, yes. Enjoy it.

Rush LindellI'm framing it.

ReaganHere's what I'd actually want from Georgia, the partisan breakdown. A raw count says how many. It can't say how many Democrats, how many Republicans, or how many people who don't normally vote in a midterm.

Rush LindellAnd until somebody shows me that, a million is just a big room. Could be your people, could be mine, could be folks who show up for every election just to complain about the parking.

ReaganNow, the loud version of this story comes from Daily Kos. Emily Singer wrote on October 19th that early voting has begun in half the country and that there are already flashing red warning signs for Republicans.

Rush LindellFlashing red. Oh, man. Subtle.

ReaganIt's an advocacy outlet's read, Rush. That's a point of view, not a neutral data set, and I'd say the same if a conservative site wrote the mirror image.

Rush LindellYou would. It's the annoying thing about you.

ReaganBut I won't wave it off either. A partisan outlet can still be pointing at something. The question is whether the thing it points at survives a neutral look.

Rush LindellAnd I say it doesn't. Look, a Democratic site sees a Georgia crowd and sees a Republican crisis. Same crowd, same lines, and I could write the opposite headline before lunch.

ReaganThen write it. What's the headline?

Rush Lindell"Million Georgians vote. Both parties claim them."

ReaganHonestly, that one's the most accurate thing anyone has published this week.

Rush LindellThank you. I'll be here all night. Bumper. Now, Texas, where the numbers cut both ways.

ReaganThey do, and Texas has a record in it that comes with a catch.

Rush LindellTexas, everybody's favorite state to call a bellwether and then be wrong about.

ReaganKRLD's day one roundup has Dallas County at 76,079 voters. Day one in 2024 was about 56,300.

Rush LindellWhoa.

ReaganHarris County had at least 104,201 ballots. The old midterm day one record from 2018 was about 63,000.

Rush LindellThat's not a record. That's a demolition. I'll give you Harris. Reagan, I'm a man of conviction, not a man of denial.

ReaganThank you, but Collin County complicates your side too, Rush.

Rush LindellOh, here we go.

ReaganCollin had 34,522 voters. That beats 2022, but it's below its roughly 43,000 on day one in 2024.

Rush LindellBelow 2024. Write that down. Hold on. That's mine.

ReaganIt's one suburban county. It's below a presidential year, which is a higher bar for any midterm.

Rush LindellYou concede my point and then take it back in the same breath.

ReaganMixed picture. Two counties up big, one down from the last presidential year.

Rush LindellAnd Dallas beat its own 2024 day one in a midterm year. That's the one I can't spin, and it's killing me.

ReaganNo, you can't, but in fairness to you, one day in three counties can't tell us what's happening in the rest of a state that size.

Rush LindellFine. Now the money. The Houston Chronicle says Governor Abbott has put more than $25 million into boosting Republican turnout in Harris County.

Reagan"Even though polls forecast a down year for the GOP," the paper says.

Rush LindellSo, which is it? Is the record Democrats rushing out, or is it Republicans getting dragged out by $25 million of persuasion?

ReaganMm, both fit, and nobody in that day one number is wearing a party jersey.

Rush LindellRight, which means every caller's about to claim it. Reagan, take the hotline.

ReaganOh, no. Fine. Bellwether hotline, you're on the air.

Rush LindellLongtime listener. My county is the bellwether, always has been. Once a lawn sign here predicted a whole election.

ReaganWrong. My county's the bellwether. We ran out of parking, which is the most accurate indicator of anything.

Rush LindellSir, my county has a diner, and the diner votes first.

ReaganMy county has two diners.

Rush LindellAnd they all lose on the air at the same time. Every county is the bellwether until it isn't.

ReaganEventually, somebody calls in with an actual number.

Rush LindellDangerous. No, no, no. Get rid of that guy.

ReaganHe's gone.

Rush LindellBumper. Okay, Reagan, there's a stat sitting under all of this that makes both of our stories wobble.

ReaganThe one about Democrats and mail voting?

Rush LindellThat's the one.

ReaganIt's gonna hurt us both.

Rush LindellReagan, I've got a number for you, and I want you to hold it like a hot plate.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellThe NBC News Decision Desk, working with Penn, looked at North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots than in past cycles.

ReaganFewer? Okay.

Rush LindellBut they're sending them back faster. NBC says 20% of Democratic-requested ballots are already returned. At this point in 2022, it was 15.

ReaganHmm. So a smaller pool emptied quicker.

Rush LindellSmaller pool, quicker drain. Fewer people asked, and the ones who asked are voting like their hair's on fire.

ReaganAnd that cuts against me, Rush. I've been reading early ballots as a mood ring. NBC's authors say this makes early vote enthusiasm harder to read.

Rush LindellOoh, they said it. Write that down.

ReaganI'm writing it down. It hurts.

Rush LindellWait, I'm not done. I get to enjoy this for exactly four seconds because it cuts me too.

ReaganGo on. Enjoy it.

Rush Lindell"Mirage" was my whole line. Early voters are a skewed crowd. They just showed up first.

ReaganAnd now?

Rush LindellNow the crowd itself is changing shape. Who's even in the line? Hold on. That's a worse problem for me than for you.

ReaganLet me spell out why it's so slippery. Fewer requests could mean fewer Democrats are interested, or it could mean the people still asking are the most motivated ones. Faster returns fit either story, and the numbers alone don't tell us which.

Rush LindellSo the same data says cooling off and heating up, depending on which half of the sentence you love. That's not a statistic. That's a Rorschach test.

ReaganLet me add Pennsylvania. Votebeat's October 20 piece has data as of October 19th. Democratic mail ballot requests are down fourteen percent from 2022.

Rush LindellDown? Okay.

ReaganAnd Republican requests are up eleven percent.

Rush LindellHuh. That's your enthusiasm story walking out the back door.

ReaganMaybe. Against 2024, though, Democrats are down about a third, and Republicans and independents are down about half.

Rush LindellHalf. Everybody's down. So is nobody voting by mail anymore?

ReaganCompared with 2024, a lot fewer people are asking, yes. 2024 was a different animal.

Rush LindellFine. So why are Democrats asking less? Somebody scared them off?

ReaganThat's the obvious guess, a Trump-driven chilling effect. Votebeat calls the evidence on that inconclusive, and the headline says his mail voting restrictions didn't even go into place.

Rush LindellSo the ghost story has no ghost.

ReaganThe evidence doesn't show one, and I won't build a case on a ghost either.

Rush LindellI hate that you're being fair right now.

ReaganThen you'll love this part. I can't call Iowa a warning anymore without a footnote. You can't call Georgia a mirage without one.

Rush LindellTwo footnotes. We're a law review now.

ReaganWe each lost our favorite sentence.

Rush LindellBumper. Time to grade each other, and I'm bringing a red pen. Okay, Reagan, your claim is that the pattern holds from the polls to the primaries. My grade, B-minus.

ReaganMinus. Not even a plain B.

Rush LindellYou've got a consistent story, but every time I check a piece of it, the piece is thin. One day here, one county there. A pattern made of thin slices is still thin.

ReaganFair. Slices are all anyone has this early. Now, yours, Rush, the skewed sample case.

Rush LindellGo ahead. I'm ready.

ReaganC-plus.

Rush LindellC-plus? I'm being graded like a sophomore.

ReaganYou're right that early voters aren't everybody. Nobody serious disputes that. But you keep saying skewed without ever telling me which way it skews this year. Skewed toward what? You never say.

Rush LindellBecause nobody knows.

ReaganExactly. That's the hole. A skew you can't point to is an excuse, not an argument.

Rush LindellOuch. Hold on. Then the mail data cuts you, too.

ReaganIt does. I said so.

Rush LindellAnd here's the part I like. The NBC authors, that Decision Desk and Penn team, warn the mail ballot shift could change the election night red and blue mirages.

ReaganWhich means the night itself might look different than it used to. Ballots counted in a different order, a different early picture.

Rush LindellSo the warning lands on both of us. I can't call it a mirage, and you can't call it a wave.

ReaganMm, a caution with both our names on it.

Rush LindellLet me defend the minus, since you flinched. Iowa was day one. Georgia gave us volume with no party label, and Texas split down the middle. That's a pattern with holes in it.

ReaganAnd let me defend the plus. Iowa's gap is big enough that calling it common doesn't explain it by itself, and North Carolina's pace is well ahead of the last midterm. You kept the doubt alive, which counts. You just never filled it in.

Rush LindellFine. Now the scorecard. Our own Senate and House picks from earlier in the season are sitting out there waiting for election day to grade them.

ReaganOh, they're watching us quietly, like a hall monitor.

Rush LindellI'd like the record to show I'm not nervous.

ReaganNoted. Your voice just went up half an octave.

Rush LindellBumper. Sponsor read first, then the limits, and the verdict. Reagan, before we get to the verdict, I have to tell you about the one thing in my life that's been steady all year. It's not my knee. It's not my producer. It's silver.

ReaganSilver. Of course.

Rush LindellHold on. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one-ounce Silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganBelow spot. Okay. That got my attention.

Rush LindellHere's what you need to know. It's priced below spot, so Lear's selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, New customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a twenty-four-hour offer only.

ReaganSo what's the catch?

Rush LindellI'll tell you how rare it is. Spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganAnd it's a coin people know.

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world. Backed by the US government for weight and purity, one ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA-eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganI like holding things. Data never lets you.

Rush LindellGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. It's a twenty-four-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. That's www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganSpeaking of things that are gone, our certainty. Let's be honest about what we've got. Iowa was day one. Texas was day one. Georgia is a week.

Rush LindellSnapshots, not a movie.

ReaganAnd a snapshot is only worth what the camera caught. Ours caught who showed up early, not who's still coming.

Rush LindellWhich is the one thing we agree on today. Write it down. I'll deny it tomorrow.

ReaganAnd the sources don't match. County clerks, a state office, local TV, a national analysis, all counting different things on different days.

Rush LindellPlus one outlet in the pile is an advocacy shop. I'll say it. Daily Kos wants the headline it wrote.

ReaganFair. And I'll own that its read was a read, not a count.

Rush LindellOh, that hurts you.

ReaganA little.

Rush LindellSo what changes your mind? Give me one line.

ReaganParty breakdowns of who actually voted in Georgia and North Carolina that show Republicans keeping pace with their own 2024 turnout. Show me that, and I drop the warning.

Rush LindellMine's simple. If Democratic early numbers stay this far ahead right up to the last day after the early crowd runs out, I stop saying they're just voting sooner.

ReaganThat's a real concession, Rush.

Rush LindellDon't get used to it.

ReaganWouldn't dream of it.

Rush LindellNow it's your turn, listener. You heard the pattern case and the skewed sample case. Who won? Reagan or me? Vote and be kind.

ReaganOr be honest. He can take it.

Rush LindellBumper's coming, then we wrap this up. Reagan, final answer. Did I keep the grade honest?

ReaganYou handed me a B minus, and I'll frame it. Your skew case is still waiting on a direction, Rush. Fix that by election day, and I'll upgrade you.

Rush LindellUpgrade? She's offering me an upgrade.

ReaganConditional upgrade.

Rush LindellFine. And you at home, the vote's still yours. Pick one and tell us.

ReaganWhoever you pick, we both ended up with a footnote on our favorite sentence. Mine on Iowa, yours on Georgia. That's where this landed.

Rush LindellThe law review stays open, and the home monitor checks our picks on election day.

ReaganSubscribe so tomorrow's show lands on your phone. Leave a five-star review if we earned it, and tell one friend who argues about politics at dinner.

Rush LindellNew episodes every weekday. Tomorrow, we're back with whatever the ballots did overnight.

ReaganAnd if the Democratic lead holds, Rush owes me lunch.

Rush LindellNobody agreed to lunch.

ReaganBumper's rolling anyway.