Thursday: Early Votes In, GOP Panic or Real Problem?

Rush LindellSeven hundred thousand ballots already in the box, and half of Washington is running around like somebody pulled a fire alarm.

ReaganHalf of Washington? You count it.

Rush LindellI estimate. It's my gift. Welcome to the show. I'm Rush Limbaugh, this is Reagan, and we are brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997.

ReaganThanks, Rush. For the record, that number is more than seven hundred thousand ballots cast across 30 states, per the creator brief we're working from.

Rush LindellThirty states, and the panic merchants say it's doom for the GOP.

ReaganHold on. Somebody says doom, somebody says mirage. Two questions: Is the gap real?

Rush LindellMm-hmm.

ReaganAnd is it just Republicans saving their vote for Election Day?

Rush LindellPanic, Reagan. Pure panic over a skewed sample. I will say it with a straight face for the next hour.

ReaganYou'll try. I've seen your poker face.

Rush LindellWounded, truly.

ReaganHere's the plan for the listener. We go state by state, we argue it out, and at the end, we grade each other.

Rush LindellGraded by the one person who can't stand losing. What could go wrong?

ReaganBefore either of us claims anything, how big is that pile really?

Rush LindellCue the bumper. Let's go count it. Reagan, I'll start with a number everybody's waving around. A tiny slice. That's what we're looking at.

ReaganA slice of what, though? Let's get the source on the table first. Michael McDonald, the University of Florida election scholar, posted on October first that at least six hundred ninety-two thousand one hundred and four people had voted as of September thirtieth.

Rush LindellOh, the tracker guy.

ReaganHe points to his U.S. Elections Project tracker, yes, and that's roughly in line with the figure you've been scoffing at.

Rush LindellRoughly? Doing a lot of work in that sentence.

ReaganIt's a check, Rush, not a victory lap. His count lands a little under the round number we've been using.

Rush LindellSo the pile is a pile. Fine, I'll give you the pile.

ReaganThank you. Now, CNN had an earlier count. Its October first piece said more than five hundred and fifty thousand Americans had voted across 29 states.

Rush LindellTwenty-nine, not 30. Somebody's counting states like I count calories.

ReaganDifferent snapshots. States keep coming online as ballots go out. The more interesting part is what CNN wrote next, "Signs of a Democratic advantage in motivating voters," a trend it said has played out in polling all summer long.

Rush LindellAll summer. Hold on. Hold on.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellPolls all summer, and now a few hundred thousand early ballots get to be the confirmation? That's a pep rally grading its own homework. It's a sliver of the electorate, and the sliver is the part of the electorate that votes before the leaves turn.

ReaganI'll concede the sliver. Early voters aren't everybody, and nobody should call an election off a few hundred thousand ballots.

Rush LindellThank you.

ReaganDon't get comfortable. I'm not finished.

Rush LindellComfortable is my natural state. Go on.

ReaganBut a slice that points one direction is still worth reading. If it leaned all over the place, you'd shrug. It doesn't lean all over the place, and it matches what the polls were already saying.

Rush LindellMatches the polls. That's the part you want me to be scared of.

ReaganI want you curious. You don't have to be scared.

Rush LindellCurious is how it starts. Then I'm in a bunker with a spreadsheet.

ReaganThen bring snacks, because the headline number only tells us how many. It doesn't tell us which party asked for the ballots in the first place.

Rush LindellAh, and that's where the states come in.

ReaganIowa, Pennsylvania, Maine, North Carolina. Who's requesting? Okay, the request shares. Democrats hold a bigger share of ballot requests in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina than they did in 2024. All four.

Rush LindellFour states. I'm already sweating.

ReaganYou're always sweating, Rush. A tip on the numbers, though. A summary of CNN's reporting lists them. Iowa, 67% Democratic.

Rush LindellSixty-seven percent in Iowa. Corn country.

ReaganPennsylvania, 66.

Rush LindellHold on. Pennsylvania is the one that keeps me up at night.

ReaganMaine, 57, and North Carolina, 42.

Rush LindellForty-two? That's the lowest number on your list, and you read it like a eulogy.

ReaganIt's a Democratic share of requests, and it's up from 2024. That's why it's on the list.

Rush LindellSo walk me through it. Is 42 a bad number or a fine number? Because I can't tell from your face.

ReaganIt's a share of requests, not a forecast. It's the smallest of the four, but the comparison is to 2024, and on that comparison, it's up. Same for the other three.

Rush LindellSo the story is the direction, not the size?

ReaganFor now, yes, and with Iowa and Pennsylvania as high as they are, even you should sit up straight.

Rush LindellBut a request isn't a vote, Reagan. Somebody can ask for a ballot and leave it on the kitchen counter.

ReaganTrue, and that's why I'm calling these requests and nothing more. They tell you who asked, not who sent it back.

Rush LindellSo it's an invitation list, not a guest count.

ReaganThat's a fair way to put it. Still, an invitation list that leans further toward one party than it did in 2020 is worth noticing, even if nobody has counted the guests yet.

Rush LindellFine. Fine. Now, you know what else is up? My blood pressure, my need for silver, and my sponsor's patience. So let me tell you about Lear Capital.

ReaganOf course you're doing this now.

Rush LindellI do it now because I'm telling you. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganBelow spot. Okay, that does get my attention.

Rush LindellHere's what you need to know. Priced below spot. Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, new customers only, free shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a twenty-four hour offer only.

ReaganWhich is a short fuse.

Rush LindellAnd just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganFair. What is the coin exactly?

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world. Backed by the U.S. government for weight and purity, one ounce of point nine nine nine fine silver, IRA-eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganHold in your hand, unlike a mail-in ballot, which you can't tell is counted yet.

Rush LindellHa. Go to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a twenty-four hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. That's www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganRight. Back to the Request Shares. There's one more line in that same summary, and it complicates things for everybody. Hold that thought.

Rush LindellOoh, a cliffhanger. But first, Reagan, give me a minute, and I'll tell you why you shouldn't trust a single one of these samples. Okay, listen to me. One listener, you. Here's what the panic crowd won't tell you. CNN's own tracker says early voters are typically older and less Republican than the full electorate.

ReaganOlder and less Republican. Keep going.

Rush LindellSo you open the doors at nine AM, you count the first twelve people in line, and they're all holding coupons for the early bird special, and the headline says the whole country is turning blue.

ReaganThe early bird special.

Rush LindellI'm calling them the early bird brigade. They see a robin on the lawn in March and declare summer is canceled.

ReaganFine, that one's good.

Rush LindellThank you. Now, the second Half. The same CNN tracker says Republicans usually prefer to vote in person early or on Election Day. Democrats in recent years have been more likely to vote before Election Day.

ReaganHold on.

Rush LindellSo of course, the early pile leans Democratic. That's not a signal, that's a calendar. You're reading a clock and calling it a poll.

ReaganI'll give you the timing point, Rush. CNN's tracker says it, and it's a real caveat about who has voted so far. Nobody serious disputes it.

Rush LindellThank you. Then we're done. Pack it up.

ReaganWe're not done. What does it prove?

Rush LindellIt proves the sample is lopsided.

ReaganLopsided, sure, but a lopsided sample tells you who showed up early. It doesn't tell you the people waiting for Election Day will fill the gap. That's an assumption, and you're treating it like a result.

Rush LindellIt's an assumption with history behind it.

ReaganHistory says Republicans vote later. It doesn't say how many of them will bother turning up at all.

Rush LindellOoh, there it is.

ReaganRight. Your own argument needs a Republican surge that hasn't happened yet. Can you point to one?

Rush LindellI can point to a calendar. You want me to point to November?

ReaganI want a number.

Rush LindellA number for what? The people who decided haven't voted yet. That's my whole point.

ReaganAnd it's mine too. You can't count them, and the Panic crowd can't either, so the honest answer is we don't know yet.

Rush LindellCareful. Wait for it, because somebody in this studio is about to find a number neither of us expected.

ReaganAnd it doesn't flatter either of our stories.

Rush LindellWell, that's rude. Go ahead then. Reagan, you said there was a line in that summary that complicates things. Wait for it. I'll say it.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellThose Democratic request shares we just ran through, above twenty twenty-four, sure. But a summary of CNN's reporting says they're still below twenty twenty-two levels in most of those states.

ReaganHmm.

Rush LindellBelow twenty twenty-two? The year the red wave was supposed to drown everybody, and mostly didn't.

ReaganI'll take the hit. That's the number that cuts against the Democratic story, and nobody on their side wants it on a banner.

Rush LindellSay it again, slowly, for the people in the back.

ReaganYou're ahead of twenty twenty-four in most of those states and still behind twenty twenty-two in most of those states. Fine, Rush, you get that one.

Rush LindellI get that one. Put it on a plaque.

ReaganEnjoy it. The twenty twenty-two comparison is a fair knock because that was a midterm, the same kind of race we're in now.

Rush LindellNow, that's the nicest thing you've ever said about twenty twenty-two.

ReaganHold on. Take the plaque down for a second.

Rush LindellOh, here it comes.

ReaganThe comparison people keep reaching for is twenty twenty-four because that's the last time a presidential ticket was on the ballot with Trump's name. Being above that baseline is movement. Same source adds that Virginia areas that backed Harris are voting faster than heavily Trump areas.

Rush LindellFaster, not more. Faster is the whole point of my argument, Reagan. Faster is a clock.

ReaganThen the clock is pointing somewhere. A summer of polls and this early data are leaning the same direction, even if neither one is a landslide.

Rush LindellA lean. She's down to a lean.

ReaganI'm down to what the numbers hold. They don't hold a wave. They don't hold nothing either.

Rush LindellSo are we done? Is it panic or a real problem?

ReaganIt's not panic over nothing, and it's not a collapse. It's a soft signal in one direction, and the fair test is whether the next batch of numbers keeps leaning the same way.

Rush LindellThat's the most diplomatic surrender I've ever heard.

ReaganIt's not a surrender. The polls have flagged turnout for months, and I'd like to show you what they actually said.

Rush LindellOh, man. Here come the polls. Bring 'em. Reagan, you've had your coffee. Go ahead. Tell me why a sample I think is cooked should keep me up at night.

ReaganRush, you're right about the sample. Early voters aren't the whole electorate, and nobody should pretend they are, but I won't pretend the polls went quiet either.

Rush LindellHere it comes.

ReaganCNN said the Democratic advantage in motivating voters is a trend that has played out in polling all summer long, all summer. That's months of surveys, not one weird week of mail.

Rush LindellPolls and early ballots are cousins, Reagan, cousins who share a bad habit of asking the same eager people.

ReaganMaybe, but when two different kinds of evidence lean the same way, you don't get to wave off both because each has a flaw.

Rush LindellHmm.

ReaganAnd the early ballots weren't built to match the polls. They're just there, matching them anyway.

Rush LindellOh, so the coincidence is the evidence?

ReaganSometimes, yes. Then there's Virginia. A summary of CNN's reporting says areas that backed Harris are voting faster than heavily Trump areas.

Rush LindellFaster again? Wait, that's a speed, not a size.

ReaganAgreed. It tells you who's early, not who wins, but it fits what the polls said about who's fired up, and that's my whole point.

Rush LindellSo you're not saying wave. You're saying smoke.

ReaganSmoke with a fire alarm that's been going off since June. Ignoring it isn't toughness, Rush. It's a decision to not look.

Rush LindellOuch. Fine, I'll give you this much. If my side shrugs off a whole summer of polling because the mail looks weird, that's not a strategy. That's a nap.

ReaganThank you.

Rush LindellAnd I'll say it plainly, once. The polls could be off, the mail could look weird, and somewhere in the middle is the truth.

ReaganThe middle is a perfectly respectable place to live, Rush. It just requires looking at both instead of picking a favorite.

Rush LindellBut I'm not done being suspicious. Some states barely have anything in the bank yet.

ReaganRight, and that's the honest next question. Before anybody scores anybody, where is the data too thin to call?

Rush LindellReagan, I'll give you a Nevada pop quiz. Every single voter in that state gets a ballot mailed to them. How many were back as of October 1st?

ReaganGo on.

Rush LindellAbout 1,500. The Nevada Independent's early voting blog says that's all that was in, and it calls state-level early reads premature. 1,500. My neighborhood bake sale has bigger turnout.

ReaganOkay, I'll take that one at face value. Nobody should read a state off 1,500 ballots.

Rush LindellThank you.

ReaganBut the same blog has a detail you'll like less. Mail ballots are roughly half the Nevada vote, and most come in before Election Day.

Rush LindellHold on. That helps me, which means Nevada is exactly where early data matters, later.

ReaganLater, not now. And the blog also says Republican turnout has generally beaten Democratic turnout in recent midterms there.

Rush LindellOoh, so the one state we can't read is the one that leans my way.

ReaganLeans, historically. Different word from will.

Rush LindellFine. Michigan. Yahoo's write-up of the state numbers says about 200,000 absentee ballots were back as of October 6th.

ReaganExactly 201,909, and that's a 30% increase over the same point in 2022.

Rush Lindell30%. Reagan, that's a headline.

ReaganWait for the second half of the sentence. The report gives no party breakdown at all.

Rush LindellSay that again.

ReaganNo party breakdown. It shows more people using mail ballots, not which party is doing the using.

Rush LindellSo it's a big number wearing no jersey.

ReaganMm-hmm. More than two million absentee ballots had been requested there, so the volume is coming either way.

Rush LindellAnd a volume number can't pick a side. I'll take that.

ReaganOne more place to watch. NPR's Morning Edition is heading to Maine, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Michigan to hear what voters say is shaping their choices.

Rush LindellTalking to actual voters, radical stuff. I may have to try it.

ReaganBring a microphone.

Rush LindellAnd snacks. Voters are friendlier when there are snacks.

ReaganThey're friendlier when somebody actually listens. That's the whole trick.

Rush LindellAll right. We've both been swinging for a while. Somebody has to keep score.

ReaganThen let's hand out grades, Rush. You first, and be honest.

Rush LindellLadies and gentlemen, welcome to the Thursday Scoreboard, two contenders, one microphone, zero referees.

ReaganYou've been saving that voice all show, haven't you?

Rush LindellSince the first Segment. Reagan, you score me first out of 10, and be gentle. I bruise.

ReaganYou do not bruise. Rush, I'll give you a Seven.

Rush LindellA Seven?

ReaganYour Skewed Sample point earned five of those. Early voters really do skew older, and Republicans really do tend to vote later. I took that seriously. But you lose points for treating a hunch about Election Day as if it were Already counted.

Rush LindellA hunch? I have a thesis.

ReaganYou have a hope with good posture.

Rush LindellOh, that's going on a mug. Fine. Seven, I'll take it, and I'll complain later.

ReaganYour turn.

Rush LindellOh, man. Okay. Reagan, coming to the scale, I'm giving you a Seven, too.

ReaganSeriously? A matching Seven?

Rush LindellWait for it. You get full marks for sticking with the polls. Ignoring months of polling would be a mistake, and you made me say that out loud, which hurt.

ReaganIt should have.

Rush LindellBut you lose three for leaning on request shares that sit below 2022 in most of those states. A wave doesn't come in smaller than the last one.

ReaganFair. Above 2024 is still movement, though.

Rush LindellMovement, sure. A tide? Show me the tide.

ReaganA tide needs more than we have. Nevada is thin. Michigan has no party breakdown, so neither of us gets to claim those.

Rush LindellRight, which makes this a split decision.

ReaganSeven to seven. Nobody gets the belt.

Rush LindellThe judges are shaking their heads and eating nachos. It's a participation ribbon.

ReaganSeven apiece, and November's still wide open.

Rush LindellOkay, cue the bumper. Time to wrap this thing up.

ReaganGladly. I need a nap from all that arithmetic.

Rush LindellSeven apiece, two hosts, 14 points, and not one referee who will admit a thing. I'm fine with that.

ReaganFair, and the stat that cuts against the Democratic story is still sitting there, Rush, above 2024, below 2022. Nobody gets to wave that around without the footnote.

Rush LindellFootnote accepted, framed, hung in the hallway.

ReaganYour hallway has a lot of my footnotes.

Rush LindellOh, it's a gallery now. Listen, if you've made it this far, do us a favor. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

ReaganLeave a five-star review. It helps more than you'd think.

Rush LindellIt's free, it's easy, and it makes me feel loved.

ReaganThat last part is the real incentive.

Rush LindellAnd tell a friend. Pick the one who argues with the radio. New episodes every weekday.

ReaganRush, you do realize that friend is you?

Rush LindellReagan, I'm the radio. Goodnight, everybody.

ReaganI'll be here Election Day, checking the actual count.