Tuesday: Cook Moves 18 Races, Is the House Gone?

Rush LindellEighteen races. Eighteen. In one morning, a handful of handicappers slid a pile of House seats to the left, and the whole commentariat fainted onto the same couch.

ReaganYou make it sound like a flash mob.

Rush LindellIt is a flash mob, Reagan, with spreadsheets.

ReaganMm, we'll see about that.

Rush LindellWelcome to the show. I'm Rush Lindell, and this is the House episode, since we've covered the Senate to death.

ReaganAnd I'm Reagan, brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

Rush LindellHere's the number. Cook Political Report now projects a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats.

ReaganWhich Axios says works out to 224 to 234 seats in the chamber. Cook's update is dated October 9th.

Rush Lindell224. Hold on. That's a majority with a bow on it.

ReaganIt is. And you call it herd behavior.

Rush LindellPundits stampede, Reagan. One guy moves, everybody moves.

ReaganOr the math moves them. I've got Cook's arithmetic, and it's less dramatic than you'd like.

Rush LindellOh, she's got arithmetic.

ReaganWave or stampede? That's question one. Question two: can the Republicans' cash stop the slide?

Rush LindellAnd at the end, we each pick the five seats that decide the House, and you out there judge who wins.

ReaganBumper. First, what Cook actually moved.

Rush LindellOkay, the actual moves. Five seats went from toss-up to lean Democratic: Iowa, Pennsylvania, Washington. And Reagan, the headliner is Miller-Meeks getting a rematch with Bohannan.

ReaganOh, she's been here before. Same two names on the ballot, and Cook decides the ending looks different this time.

Rush LindellRematch, sequel, nobody asked for it, and the critics already hate it.

ReaganFair.

Rush LindellQuick translation for the folks in the car. Toss-up means the rater won't pick a side. Lean Democratic means the rater is picking one, just not shouting about it.

ReaganRight. So going from toss-up to lean Democratic is a rater saying, "We used to shrug. Now we lean." That's a change of mind, even if it's a polite one.

Rush LindellNow flip the ledger. Axios reports four seats went the other way on the scale, lean Republican to toss-up. Iowa again, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia.

ReaganIowa twice. Think about that. One state is feeding both columns.

Rush LindellHold on. That's the part I want on a billboard. Iowa is drowning and swimming at the same time.

ReaganWait. Who are the incumbents sitting in the water? Because The Hill listed them.

Rush LindellNine names: Miller-Meeks, Nunn, Mackenzie, Perry, Fitzpatrick, then Huizenga, Wittman, Hill, Spartz.

ReaganHmm. Those are not backbenchers hiding in the cheap seats.

Rush LindellPerry, Fitzpatrick, Wittman. You ready for this? Every one of them is Republican, and every one of them just got a worse number from Cook.

ReaganAnd the move isn't a one-off. Axios had an earlier Cook projection, September 25th, with Democrats most likely gaining 5 to 15 seats.

Rush LindellSo the floor was five.

ReaganThe floor was five. Now it's nine. The ceiling climbed, too, from 15 up to 19.

Rush LindellSure. Roughly two weeks and the forecast got more dramatic. You know what else moved in two weeks? Absolutely nothing in my house.

ReaganBoth ends went up, Rush. That's the part the joke skips. The whole range shifted, not just the headline number.

Rush LindellOkay, I'll give the ledger its due, but here's what's bugging me. Five seats one way, four the other, that's nine. The headline says 18. Where's the rest of the pile?

ReaganGood question, and I only have the races these sources name. I'm not gonna make up the rest. That's the ledger, then. Now, the real question is what it means.

Rush LindellRight. Math or stampede, Reagan? Let's fight about it. Reagan, I'll say it plain. Raters watch each other. One shop moves a race, the next shop checks its own map, and suddenly everybody's discovered the same sunrise. Picture the group chat. Nobody wants to be the last shop still holding the old rating on a seat everyone else just moved.

ReaganSure. They watch each other.

Rush LindellThank you.

ReaganI'm not finished. Watching each other doesn't create the voters. Somebody still has to be unhappy out in those districts, and I'll grant you the incentive. It's real. But a rater who moves a seat for no reason burns the only thing they sell, which is credibility.

Rush LindellOh, unhappy. Always conveniently unhappy right when the pundits need a headline. Oh, man, the crystal ball has a weather vane on top. And notice the timing. The herd never stampedes toward the boring ratings. It runs toward the dramatic ones.

ReaganFine. Then use the math. Cook editor Aaron Covey said Democrats need only 20% of the toss-ups to reach a majority.

Rush LindellOnly 20%. That's the whole sales pitch?

ReaganThere's a condition. The seats already rated as favoring Democrats all have to break their way.

Rush LindellAh, the fine print.

ReaganWhich you'd be shouting about if it were the other side's pitch. The Hill attributes that statement to her, and it's the basis for my argument.

Rush LindellHold on. Same Hill story ties the shift to Trump being unpopular on the economy and the Iran war. Reagan, that's a narrative. Bad mood in, bad ratings out.

ReaganOr it's a cause.

Rush LindellSay more.

ReaganIf voters sour on the economy and a war, raters moving seats is the effect, not the stampede. You can read the same paragraph as proof of your story or mine.

Rush LindellI'll take my reading. It has better lighting.

ReaganThen try this one. The Washington Post summary of the October nine update says polling and the work of prognosticators, like Cook, suggest Democrats are likely to take back the House in November.

Rush LindellPolling and prognosticators, two groups that all went to the same conference.

ReaganPolling isn't a rater, it's a separate measurement, so it's polling plus ratings, not ratings alone.

Rush LindellMm. Okay. That one stings a little.

ReaganOnly a little?

Rush LindellI have a reputation to protect. I'm giving you the polling. I'm not giving you the districts.

ReaganGood, because the districts are where a map either holds or doesn't. That's where a herd would get caught, if there is one.

Rush LindellEnough theory. Let's walk the districts, starting in Iowa. Iowa 1, Bohannan against Miller-Meeks. Third time, folks. Third. They've seen each other more than most married couples see each other at breakfast.

ReaganAnd the last one was a squeaker. The 19th News says Bohannan lost by just under 800 votes in 2024.

Rush Lindell800 votes. That's a church bake sale crowd.

ReaganIt's a high school gym on a Friday night, Rush. Not even a full one.

Rush LindellFine, a half-empty gym. Here's my point. A candidate who lost by that little and came back a third time knows every porch in the district.

ReaganMm. But that cuts both ways. Miller-Meeks knows the porches, too.

Rush LindellWait, you're defending her?

ReaganI'm saying a rematch is no free pass. Cook's October 9th update has this rematch among the seats it moved from toss-up to lean Democratic. Cook sees something. I'd like to hear what it is before I buy it.

Rush LindellOh, you'll hear it, because next door in Iowa 3, it gets worse for Republicans.

ReaganNunn.

Rush LindellNunn, facing Trone Garriott, and the 19th News says Trump carried that seat by four points.

ReaganFour. That's a cushion you could lose in a bad news cycle.

Rush LindellHold on. Four points of Trump margin, and Nunn is on the list of Republicans whose race has moved.

ReaganWhich is exactly where I'd slow down. Four points is a margin. It isn't a result, and I won't tell you which direction that race moved because the sources I have don't say.

Rush LindellSure, but you don't end up on a rating shift list when you're comfortable.

ReaganFair. Now, Pennsylvania.

Rush LindellAh, Pennsylvania. Perry and Fitzpatrick.

ReaganBoth on the Hill's list of nine Republican incumbents whose races moved. Axios adds that Pennsylvania has seats shifting from toss-up to lean Democratic.

Rush LindellAnd notice what neither of them gives us.

ReaganWhich is?

Rush LindellThe why. We get names, we get the ratings, and then we get silence. Which district? What moved? You tell me.

ReaganI can't. The sources don't say, so I won't. I'd rather be vague than invent a reason.

Rush LindellShe admits it. Stop the tape.

ReaganDon't get used to it.

Rush LindellBumper. Next up, Michigan and Virginia, and what Cook did there.

ReaganAnd where Rush has to explain why that's not math.

Rush LindellMichigan 10, Detroit suburbs, open seat, and the 19th News says Hines faces Bouchard. Two names. That's the whole file I've got, and I'm telling you, Reagan, it's plenty.

ReaganIt's an open seat, Rush. No incumbent to blame, no incumbent to lean on. That matters when a rater is deciding how nervous to be.

Rush LindellHold on. Huizenga is a Michigan incumbent, too.

ReaganHe is. The Hill lists nine GOP incumbents whose races moved, and Huizenga is on it.

Rush LindellAnd Virginia?

ReaganWittman, same list. Axios says the lean Republican seats that went to toss-up include Michigan and Virginia.

Rush LindellOkay. Okay. You want a sketch? I've got a sketch.

ReaganI was afraid of that.

Rush LindellPicture the rating agency of nervous pundits. Morning meeting, one guy whispers, "Toss-up." Everybody writes it down. Nobody looks up. Then the stampede starts. Hooves, clipboards. Somebody yells, "Lean Democratic," and 40 analysts sprint toward a spreadsheet.

ReaganNice sketch.

Rush LindellThank you. I do the hooves myself.

ReaganI could tell, but the toss-up moves have names on them, Rush. Huizenga, Wittman, those are seats, not a feeling in a conference room.

Rush LindellOoh, you're quick today.

ReaganAnd you still haven't told me which of those districts the herd got wrong.

Rush LindellI'm working on it. Give me a week and a whiteboard.

ReaganYou'd need a barn.

Rush LindellOkay. That one's fair. Hold that thought, because I need to tell you about something I actually care about. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganWait, below spot? Say that again.

Rush LindellBelow spot. Priced below spot. Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person. New customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganWhy is that rare?

Rush LindellBecause spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganAnd it's a coin people know.

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand. I like that last part. Go to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. That's www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganSpeaking of cash, Rush, Republicans have a record pile of it. Can it stop this slide?

Rush LindellOh, now you've got my attention. Okay, the money, and I love this part because the Republicans brought the checkbook to the party.

ReaganThey did. Axios reported the NRCC raised thirteen and a half million dollars in August.

Rush LindellThirteen and a half in one month.

ReaganAnd it ended that month with eighty-nine million in cash on hand. The DCCC had seventy-six million.

Rush LindellThirteen million more in the bank. Say it with me, Reagan. That's a lot of yard signs.

ReaganAxios called it the largest NRCC lead at this point in a cycle, so nobody can say the Republicans are broke.

Rush LindellNobody. Oh, man, and they're not hoarding it either.

ReaganNo. AdImpact data show the NRCC had already spent sixteen point nine million dollars on ads. That's across thirty-nine districts.

Rush LindellThirty-nine.

ReaganAgainst three point seven million for the DCCC in thirteen districts.

Rush LindellSo one side is carpet bombing, and the other is mailing postcards.

ReaganFair, though Democrats are being selective, and the Republicans are spreading across three times the districts.

Rush LindellWhich tells you where the fear is. You don't buy ads in thirty-nine districts because you feel good.

ReaganMm. Now, here's what I'd want you to sit with. Cook's analysis, as Mediaite relate it, said a large Republican ad campaign was a key factor in the shifts.

Rush LindellWait, the Republican ads move the races toward Democrats?

ReaganThe campaign was meant to hurt Democratic candidates and help Republicans distance themselves from Trump, and Cook says the spending has not yet moved the needle.

Rush LindellUgh, not yet.

ReaganThat's Cook's own hedge, and I'll respect it.

Rush LindellI'll respect it too. I'll even concede it. The money hasn't worked. Seventeen million bucks, and the needle's still sitting there like a sleeping dog.

ReaganThank you.

Rush LindellBut there's still time, weeks. Ad money doesn't land like a bomb. It lands like rain. You don't judge the flood on the first drizzle.

ReaganSure, but Rush, you're asking me to bet on the rain after it's been falling for weeks without a result. Add the math, where Democrats need only a fifth of the toss-ups, and a slide that money hasn't slowed starts to look like a slide.

Rush LindellHold on. That's the whole case?

ReaganIt's two things pointing the same direction. That's more than a vibe.

Rush LindellDangerous. You're getting persuasive.

ReaganDon't tell anyone.

Rush LindellSo the cash isn't stopping it yet, and the math says it doesn't have to, which brings us to the guy who says he's already counting the votes. So is Jeffries posturing, or does he have the numbers? Hakeem Jeffries is on the road, Reagan, and he's got a line he'd like you to remember.

ReaganCBS News reported Sunday, October 11th, that he said Democrats are on the verge of taking back control.

Rush LindellOn the verge. Man's measuring the drapes.

ReaganWhere was he saying it?

Rush LindellNew Jersey and Pennsylvania, and CBS says Texas is next in the coming days.

ReaganWhich tells you something. You don't go to Texas to defend. You go to unseat Republican incumbents.

Rush LindellOr you go to Texas for the barbecue and call it strategy.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellFine, fine. But I'll tell you what I'm hearing, a victory lap before the race. Jeffries is the ribbon cutter. Scissors out. Nobody's built the building.

ReaganOkay, but a man with a ribbon usually has a building somewhere. Newsweek ran the Cook update under a headline about eighteen races shifting, and it put the forecast at two hundred twenty-four to two hundred thirty-four Democratic seats.

Rush LindellWait, both ends of that range are a Democratic majority?

ReaganBoth ends. So "on the verge" isn't a wild reach for him. It's sitting inside the forecast.

Rush LindellForecast. Weeks out. A forecast is a weather report, Reagan. Ask anybody who's been rained on at a wedding.

ReaganI'll give you that. A range is not a promise. It backs his confidence. It does not back certainty, and he knows the difference, even if his speeches don't.

Rush LindellHis speeches don't know the difference.

ReaganPoliticians never say probably. Nobody has ever filled a rally with probably.

Rush LindellPut it on a yard sign, "Probably Jeffries." Sell millions.

ReaganYou'd lose the room.

Rush LindellSo he's not lying. He's just early on the victory lap.

ReaganEarly and holding a number that points his way. That's more than most people get to say.

Rush LindellHmm. I hate that you're fair about this.

ReaganYou'll live. So you've mocked the man. I've defended the range.

Rush LindellNow the part you've been waiting for, five seats each, and we're grading each other. No mercy.

ReaganMine are better. I'm saying it now.

Rush LindellFive seats. Five. I've had this list since the shower, Reagan, and I'm reading it with conviction. These are opinion picks, not forecasts. Nobody at Cook signed off on them. Mine are Iowa 1, Michigan 10, Perry, Huizenga, and Hill. Iowa 1 is Miller-Meeks versus Bohannan, round three, and a challenger who keeps coming back after a loss that close earns a spot. Michigan 10 is Hines against Bouchard, an open seat in the Detroit suburbs, so no incumbent is holding it down. Perry, Huizenga, and Hill are all on the Hills list of nine Republican incumbents whose races moved, and that's reason enough for me to pick them.

ReaganMine are Iowa 1, Iowa 3, Wittman, Fitzpatrick, and Spartz. Iowa 1 overlaps with yours, so we agree on one. Iowa 3 is Nunn against Trone Garriott in a seat Trump carried by four points. If Democrats win there, the slide is real. Wittman is the Virginia seat, one of the lean Republican seats that moved to toss-up. Fitzpatrick is a Pennsylvania incumbent on that list, and Spartz is on it too. For those last two, the rating move is all I can responsibly point to.

Rush LindellGreat time. Go ahead, grade me.

ReaganB-plus. Iowa one and Michigan ten are strong, and I like that you took the open seat. But Perry, Huizenga, and Hill are on your list because they're on the shifted list, and I can't verify more than the rating move on any of them.

Rush LindellHopes, not reads. I'm wounded. Fine, my turn. Iowa one and Iowa three are bold, and Wittman is a smart reach into Virginia. But Wittman, Fitzpatrick, and Spartz are three incumbents from the list, and that's a lot of names with one reason between them. I give you a B-plus too.

ReaganFair. Same reason as mine.

Rush LindellListeners, you judge. Email us, tell us who won, and I'll save you the trouble. I did, easily.

ReaganOf course you did, before a single vote. It's yours to judge, listener.

Rush LindellOkay, listener, it's down to you. I said herd. I'll say it again, slower, so the cattle in the back can hear.

ReaganAnd I said math. I'll take that fight on any Tuesday.

Rush LindellNotice she says Tuesday like it's a threat.

ReaganIt's a calendar fact, Rush.

Rush LindellFine. If the herd turns out to be right, I'll be the first to say so, quietly, in a closet.

ReaganYour herd called. It wants its hooves back.

Rush LindellThat's mine. You stole the herd.

ReaganI'm only borrowing it. I'll return it with the House still undecided.

Rush LindellNow listen, if you liked this, subscribe right now. Thumb out. Do it.

ReaganLeave a five-star review and tell one friend who argues about politics at dinner. New episodes land every weekday.

Rush LindellJudge us. Be brutal. I can take it.

ReaganHe really can't.

Rush LindellI r- I really can't. Tomorrow, Reagan, bring snacks.

ReaganBring your own.