Thursday: Lock In Your Picks, Doubt the Polls

Rush LindellPens out. Not pencils, pens. Because by Tuesday night, somebody in this room is gonna be eating their words, and I want it on tape.

ReaganSomebody? Interesting. You assume it's me.

Rush LindellI assume nothing. I know things.

ReaganMm-hmm. Hold that thought, Rush.

Rush LindellThis is the show where we sign our midterm calls in ink. I'm Rush Lindell, and that's Reagan, who thinks a spreadsheet has feelings.

ReaganSpreadsheets have no feelings. That's the appeal. Rule one: every pick goes on the record. No edits after Tuesday. No, "Well, what I meant was..."

Rush LindellRush goes gut and fundamentals. Reagan goes math.

ReaganAnd you, the listener, vote on whose map looks smarter.

Rush LindellBrought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

ReaganNow the backdrop. The creator brief for this show says almost 40 million ballots are already in.

Rush Lindell40 million, before Election Day.

ReaganDemocrats lead that early vote, and Texas has seen record turnout.

Rush LindellOh, man, and the pundits are already spiking the football on that.

ReaganHold the football.

Rush LindellBefore the picks, lay out the battlefield, Reagan. Seven toss-ups. Go.

ReaganSeven states, and every one of them is a coin still spinning in the air. Cook Political Report had them as toss-ups as of October 22nd: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.

Rush LindellNow, look at that list, listener. Six of the seven sit in Republican hands.

ReaganRight. Michigan is the only one a Democrat holds, so Republicans are defending almost the entire board.

Rush LindellOh, man, and they still can't relax.

ReaganWhich is the part I'd slow down on. Fox News power rankings call Senate control itself a toss-up, six days out. That's the whole chamber, not one race.

Rush LindellFox, mind you, not exactly the Democratic National Committee newsletter.

ReaganNo, and Fox did move one race in its final update. Ohio went from toss-up to lean Democrat.

Rush LindellWait. Ohio?

ReaganOhio.

Rush LindellBrown against an appointed senator, Husted, and a rating agency decides the appointed guy is behind. I have thoughts, strong ones.

ReaganI know you do. Hold on one second. Fox kept Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas in the toss-up column, so Ohio is the outlier, and one rating isn't a result.

Rush LindellFair, but a rating that moves is a rating that smells something.

ReaganMaybe. The page doesn't say why it moved, so I won't guess. Let's get to the early vote.

Rush LindellOh, the early vote. Everybody on cable treats it like a crystal ball.

ReaganThe Election Lab reported on October 28th that registered Democrats are outpacing registered Republicans. Spectrum News carried that.

Rush LindellRegistered. Good word, Reagan. Not how they'll vote, not who the independents break for.

ReaganAgreed. It tells you who showed up, not what they did in the booth.

Rush LindellExactly. I just don't think the hill is the whole mountain. It's a hunch wearing a hiking boot. You're the numbers person, so give me the baseline before I embarrass myself.

ReaganGladly. It's a market price on who controls the Senate, not a race-by-race model, and it's less dramatic than you'd like.

Rush LindellIt always is. Go.

ReaganRush, you've got your gut. I've got a number. Kalshi traders put Democrats at about 64% to win Senate control, one week out.

Rush Lindell64. Cute.

ReaganCute, but read it right. 64 doesn't mean Democrats win. It means traders see roughly a one in three chance they don't.

Rush LindellOne in three? That's my odds of finding a parking spot outside the studio, and I find one every day.

ReaganIt's market pricing, people putting money down. It's not a poll, and it's not an official forecast.

Rush LindellMoney down. You mean the same crowd that bets on whether it rains in Tulsa?

ReaganA crowd with a financial reason to be right. That's my baseline. Your gut has to beat it.

Rush LindellOh, my gut doesn't need to beat anything. My gut walks in already holding the trophy. Look at Maine.

ReaganPlease.

Rush LindellSusan Collins, Survivor Susan, faces Troy Jackson, who only has the job because Graham Platner withdrew. A replacement candidate, Reagan. That's a pinch hitter in the ninth inning.

ReaganFair. The swap is real. Jackson replaced Platner after Platner withdrew. But a late replacement doesn't tell you the vote. It tells you the ballot changed.

Rush LindellIt tells me chaos.

ReaganChaos is a prior, Rush. So is gut. You've seen 100 Collins races in your head, and you're averaging them.

Rush LindellAveraging. My gut doesn't average. My gut sniffs.

ReaganSniffing is a method. I'll allow it. But a method that never loses isn't a method. It's a mood.

Rush LindellA mood with a trophy. Write that down.

ReaganThen sniff Iowa for me.

Rush LindellOpen seat, Hinson versus Turek. No incumbent to hide behind, nobody to blame, just two people and a prayer.

ReaganAnd a market that has to price that without an incumbent anchor.

Rush LindellWait. So you admit the math is guessing, too?

ReaganI admit the math is guessing with a seat belt on.

Rush LindellOh, that's good. I'm stealing that.

ReaganYou can't steal what you'll get graded on.

Rush LindellGrade me. Grade me hard. Gut versus seat belt, in ink.

ReaganThen here's the rule: every pick gets one sentence of reasoning, and we keep a running tally. No more warm-ups.

Rush LindellOne sentence is generous. Let's go. First picks go on the record. Texas first, Talarico versus Paxton. Reagan, you've got the numbers, so hit me.

ReaganNewsweek has the late October polls, and they're a naught. Fox News has them tied at forty-nine apiece.

Rush LindellTight. Beautiful. Useless, but beautiful.

ReaganTexas Public Opinion Research has Talarico up fifty-one to forty-seven. Newsweek also says Emerson and Nexstar have Talarico narrowly ahead.

Rush LindellNarrowly. That word is doing a lot of lifting.

ReaganIt is, because Newsweek says all of them sit within or near the margin of error. Fox's own margin is two and a half points.

Rush LindellSo a four-point lead is a coin flip wearing a suit.

ReaganClose enough. Fair?

Rush LindellFair. Now, Ohio. Sherrod Brown is challenging Husted, who was appointed to the seat. Nobody ever voted him in.

ReaganKalshi's piece quotes ABC News on Husted's trouble: affordability and data centers. People feel the electric bill.

Rush LindellOh, man, the data center bill. Nobody campaigns on that.

ReaganNot on purpose.

Rush LindellAn appointed senator, a bill people can feel, and a challenger. That's a rough week for Husted.

ReaganRough, not fatal. One report on his trouble isn't a result, but it's why I'm leaning where I'm leaning.

Rush LindellLeaning. Listen to her. She leans. I stand.

ReaganThen stand somewhere specific. Pick.

Rush LindellOkay. Ink time. Pen's out again, Reagan. I'm taking Paxton in Texas.

ReaganReason?

Rush LindellTexas is Texas. Tied polls in that state break one way when the curtain drops, and my gut has a long memory.

ReaganA long memory of what exactly?

Rush LindellOf Texas never reading the memo the pollster sent. That's all you get.

ReaganI'm taking Talarico. Every poll we just read has him tied or ahead, and I'll follow the data until it embarrasses me.

Rush LindellIt will?

ReaganMaybe. Ohio, I'm saying Brown. Husted's problems are the kind that show up in a kitchen, not a cable segment.

Rush LindellWait. I'm with you on that one. Brown. A man appointed to a seat wearing an electric bill like a necktie.

ReaganScoreboard note: Ohio, we agree.

Rush LindellWrite it down before I change my mind. Iowa, Hinson. Open seat, Republican state, and I don't need a spreadsheet for that.

ReaganTurek, narrowly. I don't love it. The seat is open, so there's no incumbent to anchor anything, and I'd rather ride the market there.

Rush LindellNarrowly, you stole my word.

ReaganBorrowed. Maine?

Rush LindellCollins. She survived every wave anyone's ever promised. A new opponent doesn't change my gut one bit.

ReaganHmm. I'm picking Jackson, not by much, and I'll admit, that's the shakiest call I'm making.

Rush LindellShakiest call, out loud, in ink. Write that down, listener. She said it herself.

ReaganI did, and it's still going on the board.

Rush LindellSo the tally, split on Texas, Iowa, and Maine, together on Ohio.

ReaganThree splits, one agreement, all in ink.

Rush LindellThree more Senate calls coming up, and then the governor's race. Michigan, Alaska, Kansas. Three picks, no flinching. Reagan, you go first because I wanna watch you wriggle.

ReaganNo wriggling. Michigan, I'm taking the Democrats, and I'll say my confidence out loud, about 60%. Alaska, I'm taking the Democrat too at fifty-five. Kansas, Republican, also fifty-five.

Rush LindellFifty-five? That's the number you give a waiter when he asks if you want dessert.

ReaganIt's an honest number. Make that call 20 times at 55%, and I expect to be wrong about nine of them. I'd rather tell you that now.

Rush LindellNine wrong calls in ink. You're braver than you look.

ReaganI'm calibrated, and there's a reason for the caution. A Fox analyst said undecided voters average about 10% in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas.

Rush Lindell10%? Meaning what exactly?

ReaganMeaning in those states, the undecideds average about a tenth of the voters six days out. In a close race, that's enough to swing the whole thing.

Rush LindellOh, I love that. Undecided voters, mythical creatures. Everybody's heard of them. Nobody's met one.

ReaganSomebody's gotta be in that 10% rush.

Rush LindellFine. They exist. They're in Kansas, eating pie, ignoring us. I still don't hedge. Michigan, I'm saying Republican. Alaska, Republican. Kansas, Republican. Ink.

ReaganMichigan is the only one of the seven a Democrat holds, and you're flipping it?

Rush LindellFlipping it, and I'm not whispering. Everybody keeps promising me a wave. Some waves turn out to be puddles.

ReaganA puddle? I'm giving 60%, but go on. All three Republican?

Rush LindellAll three, 0% doubt. My doubt went on vacation.

ReaganHold on. Alaska's got noise around it. The CBS live updates published today carry an Alaska Senate ballot controversy while early voting continues.

Rush LindellWhat controversy?

ReaganThe headline flags it, and I'm not going to invent details the page doesn't give me, so I'll just say it's one more reason my Alaska number stays low.

Rush LindellSee, that's the difference. You see a headline and shave five points off your confidence. I see a headline and sharpen the pen.

ReaganAnd if the controversy matters?

Rush LindellThen I'm a genius with a footnote. Next.

ReaganLocked in then. You, three Republicans at full volume. Me, Michigan at 60, Alaska for the Democrat, and Kansas for the Republican, both a hair above a coin.

Rush LindellReagan, a hair above a coin is a coin.

ReaganA coin with a slight lean, which by the way, is how a lot of the polling has been behaving all week.

Rush LindellOoh, now you've woken me up because the polls and the early vote hype need a talking to.

ReaganOh, they've earned it.

Rush LindellLights are up, and welcome to the Early Vote Hype Desk. Breaking news, folks. Somebody voted early in Texas. Cue the siren.

ReaganSomebody did. Newsweek reports record early voting in Texas.

Rush LindellRecord. You hear that word? Record. That's cable news Viagra, Reagan.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellI'm in character. The anchor is a man named Chad Thunderdome, and he has a map that glows.

ReaganChad's map is glowing because somebody plugged it in.

Rush LindellChad disagrees. Chad says long line, blue wave. Chad says short line, red wall. Chad says line is a line, and he gets paid by the line.

ReaganFine. That one's good.

Rush LindellOh, man. Thank you. Hold on. I've got an alert. A Democratic lead in early ballots. Chad is standing up. Chad is sweating through a very nice jacket.

ReaganAnd Chad has a graphic for it. Chad has a graphic for everything.

Rush LindellA flaming eagle. The eagle has a countdown clock. The clock just says, "Soon."

ReaganSoon is not a unit of time.

Rush LindellChad's producer is screaming in his ear. He wants a man in a line, "Sir, sir, who are you voting for?" And the man says, "I'm just here for the coffee." Cut to commercial.

ReaganHonestly, that's the most reliable interview Chad has done all week.

Rush LindellChad says the early vote tells him everything. Chad says that about every election.

ReaganChad says a lot.

Rush LindellChad's chyron just flashed, "Early vote changes everything," all caps, also red.

ReaganChad's chyron says that every time ballots come in. A lead in early ballots is a lead among people who've already voted, and Tuesday still brings its own electorate.

Rush LindellChad's expert panel is next. Three guests, one opinion, and every one of them is certain.

ReaganCertain is cheap. Now the part Chad never airs. Newsweek says the Texas polls sit within or near the margin of error.

Rush LindellSo the polls say it's a coin flip, and the turnout says it's a record. Neither one says who wins.

ReaganWhich is a very quiet headline. And here's what should bother you. Our own brief notes that Texas polls missed by between 3.6 and 4.7 points in recent statewide races.

Rush LindellSay the range again, slowly for the people in the back.

Reagan3.6 to 4.7.

Rush LindellThat's a lot of room for a poll to be wrong in a race this tight.

ReaganRight, which means a two-point lead in Texas is a rumor with a decimal point.

Rush LindellA rumor with a decimal point. I'd put that on a mug, but I'm too busy. Chad, wrap it up.

ReaganChad can't wrap it up. Chad's map is still glowing.

Rush LindellChad lives in the glow. Okay, sponsor read next, and then we're back for Ohio and the House.

ReaganAnd Chad doesn't get a vote on either.

Rush LindellReagan, I'm gonna tell you something about Ohio, and you're not gonna like it.

ReaganI already don't.

Rush LindellTrump carried that state by 8 to 11 points in each of his runs, every time. Ohio is red the way the sky is up.

ReaganFair. And MultiState rates the governor's race lean Democrat anyway, Acton over Ramaswamy.

Rush LindellLean Democrat in Ohio. Say it slowly.

ReaganThe RealClearPolling average of seven polls has Acton up about 4.3.

Rush LindellSeven polls. Sure.

ReaganAnd they're not bunched together. The spread runs from Ramaswamy plus two to Acton plus eight.

Rush LindellOh man, that's a 10-point swing between pollsters. That's not a measurement, that's a mood ring.

ReaganIt's a wide range, I'll give you that. But Suffolk, fielded October 21st through the 26th, has Acton plus four, right on the average.

Rush LindellRight on the average of a mess.

ReaganThe middle of a mess is still the middle, Rush.

Rush LindellHold on. Markets?

ReaganPolymarket gives Acton roughly 80%.

Rush Lindell80? Who's trading that? People who've never been to Ohio?

ReaganPeople putting money behind it, which is more than a mood ring does.

Rush LindellMoney is a poll with a wallet. Doesn't make it smarter.

ReaganThen what's your case? Fundamentals say Ramaswamy by how much?

Rush LindellDoesn't matter how much. Ohio doesn't flip a governor's race because a Suffolk phone rang. I'm taking Ramaswamy. Pens down.

ReaganMine goes the other way. Acton. The average has him ahead, Suffolk lands right on that average, and the market isn't close to a coin.

Rush LindellYou're betting against 8 to 11 points of history.

ReaganI'm betting that a governor's race isn't a presidential one. Ohio voters have split their tickets before.

Rush LindellTicket-splitting, the last refuge of the pollster.

ReaganAnd the first refuge of the person who wants to be right.

Rush LindellHuh. Okay, that one stings. Still Ramaswamy.

ReaganStill Acton. Both in ink.

Rush LindellNow, speaking of things in ink or in metal, my friends at Lear Capital are doing something I have never seen before. They're selling a one-ounce silver American Eagle below spot price.

ReaganBelow spot?

Rush LindellThat's right. Below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganOkay, what's the catch?

Rush LindellHere's what you need to know. Priced below spot, Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, new customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear. This is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganI've owned a coin or two. I like holding something that doesn't need a login.

Rush LindellAnd just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganAnd it's not some obscure piece.

Rush LindellRight. The silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganWhere do they go?

Rush Lindellwww.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a twenty-four-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganFine. My pick is Acton, and my medal is silver. Now the House, and the final tally.

Rush LindellNasco coming right up. House time. Reagan, I've got a stack of paper here, and the stack says Republicans hold the House, writing it in ink.

ReaganBefore you sign anything, there's a USA Today Network piece by Maria Francis that rounds up the current polls, predictions, and forecasts for both chambers. It's a roundup. It doesn't hand anybody a verdict.

Rush LindellWhich is why I don't need it.

ReaganYou just said you had paper.

Rush LindellI have gut paper. Different stock.

ReaganMine goes the other way. I'm calling the House for Democrats and Senate control for Democrats too. My picks flip Texas, Iowa, Maine, and Alaska, hold Michigan, and agree with yours on Ohio, so I can defend it, even if the margin is thin.

Rush LindellA defense. She's brought paperwork.

ReaganRush, it's a pick, not a prenup. And yours?

Rush LindellRepublicans keep the House. Republicans keep the Senate. Six of the seven toss-ups go my way on my board. Brown in Ohio is the only one I'm conceding. No hedge.

ReaganFine. Read the board back so nobody can say we wobbled.

Rush LindellRush, House Republican, Senate Republican, Ramaswamy for governor.

ReaganReagan, House Democrat, Senate Democrat, Acton for governor. On the seven Senate seats, we split on five and agree on two, Ohio and Kansas, and we split the House, Senate control, and the governor's race. That's a very loud disagreement for two people who share a studio.

Rush LindellShare it, Reagan? I've got a line of masking tape down the middle.

ReaganWhich brings us to grading. After Tuesday, we put the maps side by side, count what landed, and nobody gets to say they meant something else.

Rush LindellAnd you at home vote. Whose map looks smarter? Mine, built on instinct and fundamentals, or hers, built on the averages?

ReaganBe fair when you vote. Don't reward the loudest voice.

Rush LindellThen you're voting for me, because the loudest voice is also right.

ReaganThe scoreboard has a different opinion on that, historically.

Rush LindellWe'll see, Reagan. Tuesday night, we find out. Signed in ink, Reagan, ink. I want everybody to picture the pen. No pencil, no eraser, no little asterisk in the margin.

ReaganThere are asterisks, Rush. I wrote them in myself. Mine just happen to be honest ones.

Rush LindellThe footnote lady strikes again.

ReaganThe hedge is simple. A lot of undecided voters are still sitting out there, and any call in a close race could flip in the last few days. I'd rather say that now than explain it later.

Rush LindellFine. Me? I'll explain nothing. I'll just gloat or hide.

ReaganYou'll gloat. You've been rehearsing it.

Rush LindellOh, I have a whole bit ready. Speaking of which, listener, this part is yours.

ReaganVote. Whose map looks smarter, his gut or my math? Tell us, and we'll grade both of us after the votes are counted.

Rush LindellAnd be fair about it. Vote for the map, not the host you like better.

ReaganNobody likes you better, Rush. That's the problem.

Rush LindellOuch. Okay. Business. Subscribe, leave us a five-star review, and tell a friend who argues about politics at dinner.

ReaganNew episodes every weekday. Bring us your best insults and your worst predictions.

Rush LindellMine will be framed on my wall by Wednesday.

ReaganNext to the pen.

Rush LindellNext to the pen. See you next time.