Thursday: Trump's Iran 'Peace Deal' Is a 12-Night War

Rush LindellWelcome back. And buddy, do we have a lineup tonight.

ReaganWe do. Twelve nights of strikes and counting.

Rush LindellTwelve. CENTCOM just wrapped number 12 against Iran, Washington's still calling this diplomacy. I've got a word for that.

ReaganSave it for the segment.

Rush LindellFine. But we're also getting into the price tag on this war. Pentagon numbers that'll make your eyes

ReaganWow.

Rush Lindellwater.

ReaganAnd the human cost. What's actually happening to the troops living on those- on those Gulf bases right now.

Rush LindellPlus, Rubio's out there promising Iran will pay a price. We'll see if that's a strategy or just a talking point.

ReaganStick around for the parody segment too; Rush has a toll booth bit for the Strait of Hormuz.

Rush LindellOh, it's coming.

ReaganBut first...

Rush LindellThis hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since nineteen ninety seven.

ReaganAll right, let's get to the top story.

Rush LindellCENTCOM confirms strike number twelve last night. 'Last night-twelve straight nights-that's not diplomacy-that's a war we're just not calling by its name.

ReaganRush, before you run with that, I want to talk about how many separate waves we're actually counting here, because the number's not as clean as twelve nights.

Rush LindellHere we go. Before we get started, a quick reminder. We love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. Twelve nights! twelve, Reagan!

ReaganI can count, Rush.

Rush LindellCENTCOM just wrapped strike number twelve on Iran, hitting boats, missile depots, radar sites, air defenses-every single night since-since when?--since we had a peace deal.

ReaganTo be fair, the memorandum of understanding never actually stopped combat operations outright.

Rush LindellOh, come on!" Trump stood back and fiddled. In February, an announced major combat operations against Iran per ABC News-massive joint strikes with Israel. Then June arrives; both sides sign an MOU.

ReaganAimed at ending the war, according to that same ABC News reporting.

Rush LindellEnding it! And instead we get night after night after night of bombs! This isn't a peace process with hiccups; this is a war wearing a name

Speaker 3tag!

Rush LindellA name tag!

ReaganMeasured: Rubio addressed this directly; he told reporters the price Iran pays keeps climbing every night until Tehran "comes to its senses."

Rush LindellComes to its senses, like they're a teenager who missed curfew!

ReaganSure, but that's Rubio framing this as pressure diplomacy, not abandoning the MOU.

Rush LindellPressure diplomacy with drone storage facilities getting flattened for the

Speaker 3twelfth time.

Rush LindellA twelfth straight night?

ReaganI didn't say I bought it; I said that's the Administration's framing.

Rush LindellSo which is it? Is this diplomacy having a rough week or is it just a war that somebody slapped a press release on?

ReaganActually, small thing, CENTCOM's own release from Sunday says that wave was the ninth night—not part of this current run. So we're not even talking one continuous streak, we're talking multiple waves stacked. Act back to back.

Rush LindellPah, which is somehow worse.

ReaganWhich is somehow worse? Multiple restart points and nobody's calling it what it is.

Rush LindellSo who exactly saw this coming? All right; receipts time. Back at the MOU signing I called it the "paper ceasefire," said it wouldn't survive contact with reality.

ReaganYou did say that-and it collapsed.

Rush LindellI don't want right, Reagan; I want a trophy! Dead on arrival months ago!

ReaganYou said "dead on arrival." You didn't say "a dead American service member and Twelve straight nights of bombing.

Rush LindellDetails.

ReaganNot details. Predicting a handshake falls apart isn't the same as predicting the shape of the war that replaces it.

Rush LindellCome on.

ReaganI'm conceding the collapse, not the casualty count.

Rush LindellFine. Partial credit. I'll take it.

ReaganBut Iran's own supreme leader is out there this week calling Trump's signature on that MOU worthless and devoid of credibility.

Rush LindellSay that again. I love it.

ReaganTheir words. After the strike. Strikes resumed; Khamenei basically told his own people the ink was dead.

Rush LindellSo even Tehran's calling it the paper ceasefire now.

ReaganThey agree it broke. Whether it was ever real to begin with, that's a different fight.

Rush LindellIt wasn't real. It was a photo op with a shelf life.

ReaganOr it was real and neither side could hold it. Cause and effect aren't the same claim.

Rush LindellEither way, we called the funeral before the body dropped. DROPPED.

ReaganYou called the funeral; I'm not signing off on you naming the cause of death.

Rush LindellNoted councillor, now that funeral's racking up a bill nobody in Washington wants to read out loud. Forget the diplomacy talk for a second. Let's talk sticker price.

ReaganDefense Secretary Hegseth put a number on this campaign this week: roughly $37.5 billion,

Rush LindellWow!

Reaganaccording to Gulf News.

Rush Lindell$37.5 billion for a war nobody's calling a war.

ReaganAnd that's just dollars. Recent tallies put at least 13 American service members dead. Three hundred eighty one wounded over roughly forty days of hostilities.

Rush LindellThirteen families got a knock on the door.

ReaganMy real problem, Rush, there's been no formal war declaration, no Article One vote. Congress hasn't authorized this spending. It's running night after night on executive say so.

Rush LindellSo what-we pause strikes and take a floor vote while missiles are inbound?

ReaganI'm not saying stop the strikes, I'm saying thirty seven billion in sustained spending? Dink deserves a floor debate. The War Powers Resolution gives the White House a ninety day clock before it needs congressional sign off. We're well past that.

Rush LindellCongress could have voted any time. They chose not to. That's on them, too.

ReaganIt doesn't erase the authorization question.

Rush LindellFine, debate it. But don't pretend the alternative is free. Look away for six months and watch what Tehran does with that runway.

ReaganFair worry.

Speaker 4Look, strength costs money; weakness costs more—it sends the bill later, with interest, in American lives.

ReaganPoetic, still doesn't balance a budget.

Speaker 4Speaking of hedging against what's coming, if you're watching costs climb during wartime, you start looking for

Speaker 3trouble.

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Rush LindellThirty-seven billion buys strikes. It doesn't buy back the soldiers stationed at that base in Jordan. Make sure you text RUSH to 43343.

ReaganWhich is where the real cost shows up next, not in a spreadsheet, but in rotation, with troops absorbing the retaliation.

Rush LindellYeah, let's go there. Beyond the price tag, there's a human toll here.

ReaganThere is. NBC News reported Iran hit that Kuwaiti power and desalination plant twice in two days, and our troops on those bases are living through the blackouts too.

Rush LindellPicture a soldier standing next to a generator that just took a direct hit. That's the reality behind the blackout headlines.

ReaganAnd it's not always the missile that gets them. CENTCOM confirmed a service member at Erbil Air Base Their base died during a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian drone.

Rush LindellClean up duty, and it's still fatal.

ReaganExactly. The Pentagon says nearly a hundred troops have been hurt since this started. Ninety-six per cent are back on duty by their own count.

Rush LindellDoesn't exactly settle my stomach.

ReaganMine either. Readiness isn't just a casualty count. Ask commanders in the Pacific how they feel about pulling destroyers and air

Speaker 3wings off patrol.

Reaganand air wings toward the Gulf, while Beijing watches every move.

Rush LindellSo we're stretched thin everywhere at once.

ReaganThat's the quiet debate inside the Pentagon about whether twelve plus nights of streaks borrows readiness from somewhere else. Nobody's answering it on camera.

Rush LindellNobody wants to.

ReaganAnd underneath all of it is rotation fatigue and a VA system about to inherit whatever these units bring home. That's the cost nobody puts on a chart. chart.

Rush LindellI'll say this straight, Reagan-that gets me more than any dollar figure could.

ReaganIt should; you can borrow money, you can't borrow a soldier's third rotation back.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly why Rubio's out there promising Iran will pay a price.

ReaganWords are cheap when somebody else writes the check.

Rush LindellBuilding on that, Rubio's got the line of the day, Iran will pay a price.

ReaganAccording to ABC News, he said, Iran is begging every single day, both directly and indirectly, to make a deal.

Rush LindellBold strategy, threaten a country we're already bombing with more bombing.

ReaganCNBC has got the flip side. Rubio flat out says Iran's still not ready to make one it'll... It'll actually keep.

Rush LindellThat's the tell right there. They want the cameras off, the war keeps going.

ReaganThe Hill reported his other warning, letting Iran control traffic through Hormuz sets a dangerous global precedent.

Rush LindellOh yes, the toll booth of doom. Every tanker pays the Ayatollah tax.

ReaganAnd CNBC's got Trump vowing to bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant even in Tehran for... For every ship I ran hits.

Rush LindellI love it! New nickname-the infrastructure reckoning.

ReaganCute, but nicknames aren't a strategy Rush. Tough talk without an exit plan is just noise.

Rush LindellSo far, name the off ramp. What's the actual end state? Iran blanks.

ReaganThat's a hope; hope isn't a plan.

Rush LindellFair, but hope's cheaper than what we've already spent.

ReaganWait till you hear how Iran is actually- actually running that tollbooth.

Rush LindellLadies and gentlemen, welcome to the Strait of Hormuz Turnpike. Please have your exact change ready.

ReaganOh, we're doing this.

Rush LindellCash, oil, or your firstborn son.

ReaganThe IRGC as toll collectors. I actually hate how well that tracks.

Rush LindellThat guy spent weeks threatening to shut the whole Strait down, but they never actually close it. They just idle there like a guy blocking the In the fast lane, checking his phone.

ReaganIt's extortion dressed as strategy. Fine, bit's over, here's what's actually happening.

Rush LindellGo ahead, ground me.

ReaganCNBC reported today that Houthi rebels are now claiming strikes on two Saudi oil tankers. That's a second front opening up, separate from the Iran fight entirely.

Rush LindellWait, the Houthis are back in this?

ReaganAccording to CNBC, yes, and Secretary Rubio's... Rubio's own comments in that piece suggest Iran still isn't ready to cut a deal.

Rush LindellSo the toll booth's got a partner franchise now.

ReaganBasically, and gulfnews.com is reporting something quieter, but honestly scarier, an Arab diplomat granted anonymity describing gulf states as increasingly pessimistic there's any off-ramp left at all.

Rush LindellOoh, that's not a headline, that's a mood.

ReaganIt is, and here's why the joke matters. 20% Fifty per cent of the world's oil moves through that Strait; you don't need a full closure to spike prices, you just need enough uncertainty that shippers reroute or insurance premiums triple.

Rush LindellSo the bit, the toll booth, isn't that far off from the real economics.

ReaganNot remotely. Every day this drags without an exit, that's the actual toll-paid at the pump, not at some checkpoint.

Rush LindellYeah, okay, comedy's fun till you remember who's writing

Speaker 3it.

Rush LindellIn the check.

ReaganWhich is everyone buying gas this month.

Rush LindellBuilding on that, here's my verdict, and I'm not softening it: This is a war, full stop.

ReaganGo on.

Rush LindellTwelve nights of strikes, a widening front with the Houthis, dead paper where a peace deal used to be-call it whatever the State Department wants-a war is a war.

ReaganHold on, before you slam that gavel down, Iran's own Interior Ministry put out a statement saying diplomacy isn't dead; they claim messages are still moving back and forth!

Rush LindellMessages, sure, while the missiles are doing the talking.

ReaganI'm not saying trust it; I'm saying we don't get to declare total certainty when the other

Speaker 3half of the data isn't in.

Rush LindellThe other side is publicly leaving the door cracked.

ReaganA cracked door and a burning building are not the same thing, Reagan.

Rush LindellFair, but it's the caveat that keeps him honest.

ReaganFine-noted; still calling it a war.

Rush LindellNext episode, I want eyes on the Houthi front, if that widens past tanker strikes.

ReaganOil markets move fast.

Rush LindellExactly; twenty per cent of the world's oil already routes through that stretch of water.

ReaganSo same time tomorrow we find out if the toll booth's still open.

Rush LindellOr if the whole road is on fire.

ReaganAll right, Twelve Nights of strikes, Reagan, and my paper ceasefire call held up cracked the second Tehran opened its mouth.

Rush LindellSure, the deal cracked, but predicting a handshake failing isn't the same as predicting

ReaganMm

Rush Lindellbody

Reagan-hmm.

Rush Lindellcounts. That gap matters.

ReaganFair enough. Still, a war dressed up as a press release is a war.

Rush LindellIran's Interior Ministry says diplomacy is still breathing. We'll see who's right.

ReaganWe'll see. Next time we're watching the Houthi front those tanker strikes could move oil fast.

Rush LindellFast and loud, worth tracking.

ReaganThat's the hour. Rubio's rhetoric, my soap box, and Reagan keepin' me honest.

Rush LindellSomebody's got to.

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Rush LindellNew episodes every weekday. Thanks for spending the hour with us.

ReaganStay sharp. See you tomorrow.