Tuesday: Trump Called Off the Same Iran Strike Twice

Rush LindellWelcome back to the show. I'm sitting across from Reagan here, who keeps me honest, as always.

ReaganThat's the job description.

Rush LindellIt is. We've got a stacked hour.

ReaganWe do. Trump called off the biggest strike plan in Pentagon history twice, then turned around and called Tehran unbelievably duplicitous.

Rush LindellTwice! You can't make this up. And Iran's over there saying we're not talking to Washington. We're talking to Oman about a shipping route.

ReaganWhich raises a real question about who's actually driving this.

Rush LindellOh, we're going there. And we lost somebody who mattered today in that fight: Lindsey Graham, seventy one years old.

ReaganOne of Israel's loudest defenders in that chamber. We'll talk about what his voice meant and who fills that silence now.

Rush LindellPlus two Senate votes on this war. One passed, one failed by a single vote. VOTE.

ReaganA one vote margin on a war-stick around for that math.

Rush LindellThat math-I like that. But first-this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since Nineteen Ninety Seven.

ReaganAll right-Iran, whiplash and a straight answer on what's actually happening at Hormuz.

Rush LindellLet's start there. Before we get into it, a quick reminder: We love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. Same strike package, called off twice in one week.

ReaganThe one Trump says would have been the biggest attack since World War II?

Rush LindellBiggest since World War II, and he pulls the trigger back not once, but Twice, because Saudi Arabia calls, the UAE calls, Qatar calls, and get this, Iran calls too.

ReaganAccording to Spokesmancom's reporting Sunday, that's the exact. Act Sequence: "Gulf Allies Plus Tehran itself asking for the pause.

Rush LindellAnd then Monday morning-boom! Truth Social-Iranian leadership is unbelievably duplicitous.

ReaganRich, considering he'd just done them a favor twenty four hours ago.

Rush LindellI'm naming this thing the Snooze Button Strike-On Off, on off-somebody keeps hitting it every few days!

ReaganLaughing, Write it down-you're bringing that back.

Rush LindellGuarantee it!

ReaganBut here's what breaks the tantrum story: Iran's foreign ministry spokesman, Baghaei, went on record: We are not currently negotiating with the United States.

Rush LindellOnly Oman.

ReaganRight, a transit corridor through Hormuz. Not a peace deal. Spokesmancom had that Monday flat denial. Nothing with Washington.

Rush LindellSo who's lying?

ReaganMaybe neither. Maybe they're describing two different rooms.

Rush LindellFair. CNN's live coverage into Tuesday has Trump saying he's under zero time pressure, calling this Iran's last chance before his word decapitation and claiming Hormuz reopens as phase one of some deal.

ReaganDecapitation and no rush, same breath.

Rush LindellRight.

ReaganThat's a lot of temperature from a man who just stood the strike down.

Rush LindellAnd Globalsecurity's Day 158 update backs it up. Up no U.S. strike inside Iran reported since August Fifth; fifth quiet night running.

ReaganSo the guns are quiet; I'll give Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha this much; their tankers and pipelines sit right next to this. Asking for restraint isn't weakness, it's self preservation.

Rush LindellSure, but restraint toward what end? What's the actual American objective now? Last chance isn't a strategy.

ReaganCanceling a strike twice can be leverage. It can also be a tell you never meant to pull it. The difference won't show up in a Truth Social post.

Rush LindellBait. It shows up at Hormuz.

ReaganExactly. And if that strait doesn't move, somebody's paying for the indecision. Probably not in Washington.

Rush LindellSo where do you think that bill actually lands? Speaking of whiplash-the second Trump said the strikes were off, oil prices dropped instantly.

ReaganWhich tells you the market's not pricing supply right now-it's pricing one man's mood.

Rush LindellCrew, doing the electric slide every time he posts, I'm calling it the Mood Barrel.

ReaganCute nickname, but the mechanism's real: traders are hedging Truth Social, not tankers.

Rush LindellAnd while that's happening, six Saudi-operated tankers just- just rerouted clean around Africa, dodging the Houthi blockade in the Red Sea.

ReaganThat's two extra weeks per voyage, minimum. Fuel, crew, insurance-it all stacks fast.

Rush LindellAnd get this:

ReaganMm-hmm.

Rush LindellGlobalSecurity's Day One Fifty Eight Update says another vessel, the Minoan Pioneer, took an unidentified projectile northeast of Khasab, lost power, fire aboard.

ReaganOne crew member's missing-that's the human cost sitting underneath every barrel count.

Rush LindellReuters had Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser putting an actual number on it: two point six billion barrels of crude knocked out of global supply since this thing started.

ReaganWorth taking seriously, though a barrel count from one executive is one data point, not the whole ledger. Iran's held the strait since February twenty eighth. And every day that continues ensures reprice the risk.

Rush LindellFive months of that gets baked into freight, into premiums, into what you pay at the register. And nobody in Washington calls it a war cost!

ReaganThey call it inflation-same math, friendlier name.

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Rush LindellAnd understand how rare that is—spot price doesn't even include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead, buying at spot is already a deal; buying below spot almost never happens.

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Rush LindellSo if six tankers around Africa, one tanker hit, a crew member missing, and Iran still sitting on the Straits since February.

ReaganThat's a war finding new routes. It hasn't slowed down at all.

Rush LindellAnd that's the receipt we should be checking against everything the show's predicted lately.

ReaganWhich is exactly what we're about to do. Building on that grocery bill, let's grade ourselves, Reagan; three weeks running I called this war winding down.

Rush LindellReceipts, please. You don't get to declare victory on vibes.

Reagan(Fine.) Item one, mediators: Armand's carrying real weight on Hormuz transit deal, and CNN reports Trump himself credits Persian Gulf allies for talking him off two separate strike orders this week.

Rush LindellThat part earns a passing grade. A Hormuz arrangement is closer than it was back in June-I'll give you that one clean.

ReaganMm-hmm.

Speaker 3Thank you-see, I told-

Rush LindellDon't get comfortable, here's where you failed.

Speaker 3Go ahead, dock me!

Rush LindellYou predicted a cease fire that holds, but that requires both sides to admit out loud they're talking, Iran's foreign ministry per CNN still insists it's only negotiating a transit route with Oman, not Washington, not a deal.

ReaganTehran would rather eat glass than sate negotiation.

Rush LindellFair; and Global Security's day one fifty eight tracker confirms five straight nights with no US strike inside Iran which backs your pause instinct. Instinct isn't the same as the prediction you made.

ReaganSo, Partial credit?

Rush LindellPartial credit. My rule for anyone grading a war from home: a prediction you can't check against something specific? Thick was never a forecast; it was a mood.

Speaker 3Brutal; fair though.

Rush LindellI try.

Speaker 3Now flip that on its head-because nobody grades themselves on cable.

Rush LindellSame panel, every network-zero memory from Sunday to Monday.

Speaker 3Oh, we're doing that bit next? Buckle up.

ReaganSharply breaking now Iran deal imminent. Countdown clock on screen. Sixty days and counting.

Speaker 4It's been imminent since spring.

ReaganThat's the bit; Sunday Chiron imminent, Monday Unbelievably duplicitous, Tuesday same for retired generals, zero memory of Monday.

Rush LindellI'm not doing the accents with you.

ReaganSources tell us-sources always tell us.

Rush LindellRush.

ReaganFine, fine; but CNN ran imminent on this exact story again Sunday. Same word, different Sunday for months now.

Speaker 4And nobody's pulled the tape.

ReaganNot the Chiron?

Speaker 4The Chiron's cheap feeder-the problem is nobody on that panel gets asked why what they predicted in May never happened.

ReaganYeah!

Speaker 4That question takes four minutes and it never airs.

ReaganBecause the answer makes everybody look bad-including us.

Rush LindellSo the countdown that matters isn't on the deal, it's on how long before anyone in that business asks a second question.

ReaganSpeaking of nobody following up, there's a story Cable's already buried that we're not burying.

Rush LindellSpeaking of nobody following up, there's a story Cable's already buried that we're not burying.

ReaganLINDSEY GRAHAM Building on that, we need to slow down. Quietly, Lindsey Graham died Saturday night, seventy one years old.

Rush LindellThe Senate's most relentless War Hawk, gone right as the war he championed reignited.

ReaganAl Jazeera reported his office said it was a brief and sudden illness, and that he passed Saturday evening.

Rush LindellCBS News reported the DC Medical Examiner's preliminary finding was an aortic dissection.

ReaganAnd ABC7 Los Angeles noted he'd just gotten back from Ukraine. One day before he was scheduled on Meet the Press!

Rush LindellHe was going to defend this war on camera; that interview doesn't happen now.

Speaker 3The one thing I keep sitting with, Reagan, whatever you thought of the man's position, he showed up, put his name on it, out loud, every week.

Rush LindellCompare that to right now-who in the Senate is standing in front of a camera defending or restraining this war on record?

Speaker 3Nobody. Silence!

Rush LindellI'll give both sides their due: the case for him, hawkishness needs someone willing to own it, not hide behind a committee vote;

Speaker 3Right.

Rush Lindellthe case against, maybe the party had a He had already drifted toward restraint before he died, and he was the last man arguing a position his own base was leaving behind.

ReaganSo which is it-a messenger they lost or a message they'd already dropped?

Rush LindellI don't know yet, but cables barely touched this connection; the loudest voice for this specific war gone mid war. That's not an accident of coverage.

ReaganThat's discomfort.

Rush LindellDiscomfort with what?

Reaganwith asking who's left to answer for it. And that question doesn't wait for cable to

Rush LindellIt lands in Congress's lap, on paper, in actual votes.

Reaganvotes that already happened and votes that are about to.

Speaker 3So the numbers here matter. Congress actually did something in June: the Senate passed a War Powers resolution, fifty to forty eight, the first time both chambers landed on the same side, all war. Crossover votes, right? For Republicans, Cassidy, Collins, Paul, and Murkowski broke with the president. Al Jazeera called it a rare rebuke to Trump. And the White House's response? Told CNN the resolution carries no force of law. So it passed and nothing changed. Symbolic, my favorite word in this town." Then July thirtieth a follow-up vote fails fifty to forty nine. The Washington Post called it the second such failure in two weeks. Two in a row? Two in a row." And NPR cited Pentagon figures while that vote sat on the floor: eighteen U.S. troop deaths since February, roughly five hundred wounded.

ReaganMy problem is, Congress wants credit for opposing this war without owning what stopping it would cost; fair enough, but a losing vote still lands on the record, compare that to silence. So we've gone from the strike Trump can't stop canceling to a Senate that

Rush LindellIt can't decide, either. Article One gives Congress the war power, using it symbolically still counts as exercising it.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellThat's the parallel; a Congress that won't authorize this war and won't stop it is choosing to watch from the sideline three months before an election. Bystander government has a ring to it. Unflattering. Also accurate. At least somebody's keeping score.

Speaker 3Shifting away from Capitol Hill, while every camera's locked on Hormuz, CBS reported a seventh round of Lebanon-Israel talks just opened in Rome, US-mediated, barely a mention anywhere.

Speaker 4Seventh round—nobody's covering the process, only the flash point.

Speaker 3Exactly—and it matters because attention's are resource. Adversaries watching us are counting how long we can stare at one door.

Speaker 4I'd frame that as a question not a

Speaker 5reply.

Speaker 4Not a verdict. Are Beijing and capitals in Latin America actually testing how thin our munition stocks run on a second front? We don't have hard evidence yet, just a real question worth asking.

Speaker 3Fair, but capacity questions don't wait for proof; that's the whole point of asking them now.

Speaker 4Agreed so what would move me three things by next week?

Speaker 3Go!

Speaker 4one Does commercial traffic actually move through Hormuz again, insurers included? two Does anyone in Tehran say the word 'negotiation' out loud, not 'transit route' or 'Oman' as a proxy? three Does the Senate schedule another war powers vote before midterms or did July thirtieth kill the appetite for good?

Speaker 3I'll put my name on all three. Traffic

Speaker 5-

Speaker 3Traffic moves partial by Friday, Tehran holds the line, no negotiation, not this month, and the Senate sits on its hands till September.

Speaker 4Bold. Write it down.

Speaker 3I always do-hold me to it next week-that's the deal.

Speaker 4We will. Rome's quiet talks might end up mattering more than Hormuz ever does.

Rush LindellSo that's the show-trumpeting Snooze Button Strike again, Reagan?

Speaker 4The Snooze Button Strike stole my favorite nickname of the year.

Rush LindellDamn right; and the real headline underneath all that noise-

Speaker 4Is We Lost Lindsey Graham This Week Seventy-one years old. Gone just like that.

Rush LindellYeah, whatever you thought of the man, he never hid from a camera on this war.

Speaker 4That's the piece missing now-someone on record willing to be wrong. Wrong in public.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly why you keep listening to us; we're not hiding either.

Speaker 4If you liked what you heard, subscribe, leave us five stars, tell a friend.

Rush LindellNew episodes every weekday. We'll be tracking Hormuz, the War Powers Fight, all of it.

Speaker 4Thanks for spending the hour with us.

Rush LindellGo live your life. We'll handle the outrage. See you tomorrow. And I'll see you next time. And I'll see you next time.