Tuesday: $100 Oil, Split Votes, One Bad Prediction

Rush Lindell: Welcome back to the Rush Lindell Show. I'm fired up today, folks. Reagan: And I'm here to keep him honest. Good to be back, everybody. Rush Lindell: Big one today. Congress just split down the middle on two Iran war powers votes. And Reagan, I've got thoughts. Reagan: Shocking. Rush Lindell: I know, I know. But stick around. We're going to dig into whether either of these votes actually changes anything on the ground. Reagan: We're also tracking the money side of this war. Oil's pushing past a hundred- 100 barrel gas is creeping toward four bucks, and that's landing right in the middle of midterm season. Rush Lindell: Which means some Republicans are getting nervous and crossing lines they don't normally cross. Reagan: We'll name names. Rush Lindell: Oh, we will. But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997. Reagan: Good partner to have when the ground under this economy keeps shifting. Rush Lindell: That's exactly right. Now, Reagan before- And before we referee any of it, I want to start with the floor vote itself, because I think most people misunderstand what Congress actually did here. Reagan: Fair enough, so walk me through it. Rush Lindell: No, you walk me through it. What actually happened on that floor? Before we dive in, a quick reminder: we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. 49, 47. Say it with me. Forty-nine to Forty-seven. Reagan: The Senate Vote on the Van Hollen Resolution Rush Lindell: Two votes, two votes short of forcing Trump to end this thing by law. Meanwhile the House goes the other direction, two fourteen to two oh eight, telling him the same thing with zero teeth. Reagan: Roll calls numbers, and they check out. Jayapal's concurrent resolution: passed. Non-binding. It's a strongly worded letter with a bill number. Rush Lindell: A letter that got a majority. That's the headline nobody's saying out loud. Most of Congress on the record wants troops home. Reagan: Sure, but... Rush Lindell: All right, roll the tape back three weeks. Reagan: To the night you said the cease fire wouldn't survive August? Rush Lindell: I said it wouldn't survive the summer; there's a difference. Reagan: Three weeks isn't much of a difference, but go on. Rush Lindell: Fine, I was loose on the calendar, but I called it dead on arrival, and it's dead. Reagan: Being directionally right isn't the same as being right; you need the how, not just the doom. Rush Lindell: I called doom, doom showed up. Reagan: Doom always shows up eventually-that's weather, not analysis. Rush Lindell: Wow! Ouch, Reagan! Reagan: According to CNBC's reporting, Secretary Rubio said Iran wasn't serious about the talks, days before Trump pulled the plug. That's the piece you missed-the deal never had enforcement teeth. Rush Lindell: Hmm. Fine, I'll take that one. I thought Tehran would cheat on inspections. Turns out there was never a mechanism to cheat on. Reagan: You also called for a slow draw-down once the cease fire held. The casualty trajectory went the entirely other way. Rush Lindell: I put a caveat on that one: "Unless Iran struck first." They struck first, so technically.... Reagan: Technically doesn't get you credit for the outcome. Rush Lindell: Oh, fair; I'll eat that, too; but there's got receipts, too; I've got the line where I said Tehran would break it within thirty days of any strike pause. Reagan: And?"-- Rush Lindell: They broke it in twenty eight. Reagan: Sure; my miss, since we're keeping score, I thought House Republicans would hold the line against any war powers vote. Rush Lindell: Four of them didn't. Stripes named Congressman Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania as one of the four who crossed over. Reagan: I underestimated how many members are fielding calls from families who watched caskets come home. Rush Lindell: So we're even-I get the collapse, you get the defections. Reagan: Grade recorded. Same panel, next mess. Speaker 3: There will be a next one, and speaking of costs nobody predicted- Reagan: Just costs nobody predicted. Speaker 3: Oil just cracked two digits. Reagan: That's the bet everybody's paying for, whether they're watching Congress or not. Speaker 3: Flip that CTA scorecard into dollars at the pump and this war stops being abstract fast. Reagan: ABC News says Brent crude hit about a hundred dollars and sixty cents a barrel this week. Speaker 3: A hundred bucks up nearly twenty nine per cent in a single month-the Dow dropped five hundred twenty five points that same day. Reagan: That's the market pricing in fear, not just barrels. Speaker 3: And somewhere out there a guy who promised gas under three bucks Speaker 4: a gallon will be elected. Speaker 3: Three bucks is awfully quiet right now. Reagan: AXIOS cited AAA data: the national average is near or above four dollars a gallon. This war opened at two dollars ninety eight cents back in late February. Speaker 3: A dollar a gallon since February-you feel that filling your tank, not watching cable news. Reagan: You do. But separate two things-there's a war premium and there's structural supply, not the same animal. Speaker 3: Tell that to the guy at the pump, Reagan. Speaker 5: I will because it matters. The Houthis claim strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Hormuz is blockaded again. That's real barrels not moving. Speaker 3: So it's not just headlines spooking traders? Speaker 5: Some fears baked in, sure, but rerouted tankers and war risk insurance stack real cost on real cost. Speaker 3: So when some senator promises prices drop like a rock Rock the second we pull out. Speaker 5: That's not how oil markets work. You can't unblockade a strait with a press release. Speaker 3: Instant Relief from Politicians-Shocking! Speaker 5: Every single time. Speaker 3: Oil's getting squeezed by a war nobody saw coming. And speaking of squeezed markets, I want to tell you about something my friends at Lear Capital just rolled out. Speaker 5: Okay, I'm listening. Speaker 3: They're selling the one ounce silver American Eagle below spot. Oh, spot price; below what silver is actually trading for right now. Speaker 5: Wait, wait, wait. Below spot? That's not how this usually works. Speaker 3: I know, right? And Lear's covering the shipping and the taxes on top of it. Speaker 5: So what's the catch? Speaker 3: Limit one per person, new customers only, and it's a twenty-four hour offer, full stop. Speaker 5: Twenty-four hours; so this isn't a think it over kind of deal. Speaker 3: No, it is not; here's why that below spot number matters: spot price doesn't even include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Rush Lindell: So buying at spot is already a good deal. Reagan: Buying at spot is a good deal; buying below spot almost never happens. Rush Lindell: And this isn't some obscure bullion piece nobody's heard of. Reagan: The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognized coins on the planet, backed by the U.S. government for weight and purity—one ounce of point nine nine nine fine silver. Rush Lindell: IRA-eligible too, if you're thinking long term. Reagan: IRA-eligible, and it's fully insured shipping. straight to your door. Rush Lindell: A tangible asset you can actually hold, not a line on a screen. Reagan: Go to www.RushCoinOffer.com right now. I mean right now because it's a 24-hour offer. Rush Lindell: The URL goes dark after that. Reagan: When it's gone, it's gone. www.RushCoinOffer.com Rush Lindell: Back to barrels, because $4 gas is about to explain some very sudden convictions on Capitol Hill. HILL Reagan: Funny how a primary challenge clarifies a senator's feelings on war powers. I'm calling them the Fantastic Four of Fiscal-wait, wrong issue-the Foreign Policy Four. Rush Lindell: Catchy; but consistency isn't a conspiracy Rush. Massie's voted this way on every war powers measure since twenty nineteen. Reagan: Sure, but Collins, she's up for reelection in a state that hasn't gone red in decades and suddenly she finds her constitutional conscience? Rush Lindell: Or she's voted for war powers limits before, too. You don't get to assume the worst motive just because the timing's convenient for her. Reagan: Fine, fine; but CNN's reporting Trump called the Republicans who backed earlier resolutions losers who made his job harder. Rush Lindell: Which tells you everything about how he views dissent: not as principle, just inconvenience. Reagan: And here's the kicker: Gregory Meeks is threatening to force another vote. and drag the Administration into court over ignoring Congress entirely. Rush Lindell: That's the real fight, not who gets a nickname on Truth Social whether the executive branch has to answer to anybody. Reagan: I'll give you that one. Insults are cheap; contempt of Congress is expensive. Rush Lindell: And Meeks is betting a judge agrees with him. Reagan: We'll see if that bet pays off, because Trump's Truth Social feed didn't stop at losers. So Trump's out here running foreign policy like a vending machine now. One shot at a tanker, one bridge comes down. That's the actual math he posted. Rush Lindell: A power plant for a missile! Very precise exchange rate for a man who doesn't do decimals. Reagan: Right? And Tehran didn't blink. They promised to hit regional energy and infrastructure right back. So now we've got two governments trading real estate over Truth Social. Sure. Rush Lindell: And Euronews reported Trump told Axios he's close to deciding on something he called a "massive attack" bigger than anything so far. Reagan: Bigger than ever before. I don't know if that's a war plan or a movie trailer. Rush Lindell: Coming this fall! Reagan: And get this, he says the tanker damage gets paid for with Iranian money the U.S. already controls, like he's running an insurance claim out of the Situation Room. Rush Lindell: Which is a real policy position, apparently. Reagan: He's also pledging the U.S. will hold Tehran responsible for the Houthi strikes on those Red Sea tankers per CNBC, so now we own two fronts by post. Rush Lindell: Okay, the bit's funny, but strip the jokes out: is any of this actually strategy, or is it just vibes with a countdown clock? Reagan: That's the uncomfortable part: nobody's laughing if the Bridge Post turns into the Act. The actual order. Rush Lindell: Which brings up the question nobody in Washington wants to answer out loud. Reagan: Which is who's actually allowed to give that order in the first place. Rush Lindell: Because posting a Doctrine isn't the same as having the authority to run it. Reagan: With that vote map settled, let's talk about what these resolutions actually do-nothing, legally. Come on! Rush Lindell: No, listen, the House resolution is Concurrent; Concurrent resolutions don't go to the President, they don't carry force of law; it's Congress writing itself a strongly worded letter. Reagan: And the Senate one? Rush Lindell: Joint resolution, binding if it passed, but even if it clears both chambers, Trump vetoes it, and overriding takes two thirds. That threshold isn't close. Reagan: So Congress littered on a message, not a power. Rush Lindell: Exactly the distinction. And here's what bugs me; both parties like it this way. Nobody's touched the actual lever which is appropriations. Cut the funding, the war stops. Nobody's filing that bill. Reagan: Because that's the one vote that actually cost you something back home. Rush Lindell: Mm-hmm. Right. Roll call's coverage of the Senate vote noted Senator Van Hollen. Macallan framed this as Congress finally taking responsibility. Reagan: Responsibility? Responsibility looks like a signature on a funding bill, not a press release. Rush Lindell: I'd push back slightly: symbolic votes do build a record, but if responsibility doesn't include the money, it's a word, not a policy. Reagan: A fig leaf with a hundred ninety co sponsors! Rush Lindell: That's one way to put it. Reagan: So if the institution won't use its own power Rush Lindell: Then the check moves somewhere else, and there's only one place left that actually votes on this in November. Reagan: Forget the vote count. The real test is whether Trump's own voters stick around. Rush Lindell: NewsNation citing Politico poll, only 37% of Trump supporters still back the war if it raises prices. Reagan: 37? That was 50 back in May. Rush Lindell: 50 in May, 37 now, 13 points gone in two months. Reagan: That's not a crack. That's a fault line. Rush Lindell: And the Hill's reporting GOP... GOP senators are now openly questioning whether Hegseth can actually manage this war! Reagan: When your own party's asking if the secretary knows what he's doing, that's a problem bigger than messaging. Rush Lindell: So, here's what I'm watching: Does the next war powers vote pick up more than four House Republicans? Reagan: I've got my eye on the Bab el-Mandeb—if that strait closes—gas prices stop being a talking point. Rush Lindell: And I want the actual pump price on November first, not a poll about it. Reagan: Same. Numbers don't wobble; polls do. Rush Lindell: Grade us on that next time. Reagan: Well, the big lesson tonight—grading our own predictions is brutal, huh? Rush Lindell: Being directionally right isn't the same as being right. I own that on the defections count. Reagan: And I own the ceasefire call. Wrong mechanism, not just wrong timing. Rush Lindell: That's the takeaway, really. This war keeps punishing certainty. Both sides of the aisle. Reagan: Which is why we keep score out loud instead of pretending we nailed it. Rush Lindell: Exactly the point of doing this show. Reagan: Alright, if you like tonight, subscribe, leave us five stars, and drag a friend into the fight with you. Rush Lindell: New episodes every weekday. We'll be tracking those approval numbers and Hegseth doubts closely. Reagan: And, Reagan, next time no mercy on my predictions. Rush Lindell: None promised. Reagan: Fair enough. Thanks for spending the hour with us. Rush Lindell: See you tomorrow.