Tuesday: $100 Oil, Split Votes, One Bad Prediction

Rush LindellWelcome back to the Rush Lindell Show. I'm fired up today, folks.

ReaganAnd I'm here to keep him honest. Good to be back, everybody.

Rush LindellBig one today. Congress just split down the middle on two Iran war powers votes. And Reagan, I've got thoughts.

ReaganShocking.

Rush LindellI know, I know. But stick around. We're going to dig into whether either of these votes actually changes anything on the ground.

ReaganWe're also tracking the money side of this war. Oil's pushing past a hundred- 100 barrel gas is creeping toward four bucks, and that's landing right in the middle of midterm season.

Rush LindellWhich means some Republicans are getting nervous and crossing lines they don't normally cross.

ReaganWe'll name names.

Rush LindellOh, we will. But first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997.

ReaganGood partner to have when the ground under this economy keeps shifting.

Rush LindellThat's exactly right. Now, Reagan before- And before we referee any of it, I want to start with the floor vote itself, because I think most people misunderstand what Congress actually did here.

ReaganFair enough, so walk me through it.

Rush LindellNo, you walk me through it. What actually happened on that floor? Before we dive in, a quick reminder: we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. 49, 47. Say it with me. Forty-nine to Forty-seven.

ReaganThe Senate Vote on the Van Hollen Resolution

Rush LindellTwo votes, two votes short of forcing Trump to end this thing by law. Meanwhile the House goes the other direction, two fourteen to two oh eight, telling him the same thing with zero teeth.

ReaganRoll calls numbers, and they check out. Jayapal's concurrent resolution: passed. Non-binding. It's a strongly worded letter with a bill number.

Rush LindellA letter that got a majority. That's the headline nobody's saying out loud. Most of Congress on the record wants troops home.

ReaganSure, but...

Rush LindellAll right, roll the tape back three weeks.

ReaganTo the night you said the cease fire wouldn't survive August?

Rush LindellI said it wouldn't survive the summer; there's a difference.

ReaganThree weeks isn't much of a difference, but go on.

Rush LindellFine, I was loose on the calendar, but I called it dead on arrival, and it's dead.

ReaganBeing directionally right isn't the same as being right; you need the how, not just the doom.

Rush LindellI called doom, doom showed up.

ReaganDoom always shows up eventually-that's weather, not analysis.

Rush LindellWow! Ouch, Reagan!

ReaganAccording to CNBC's reporting, Secretary Rubio said Iran wasn't serious about the talks, days before Trump pulled the plug. That's the piece you missed-the deal never had enforcement teeth.

Rush LindellHmm. Fine, I'll take that one. I thought Tehran would cheat on inspections. Turns out there was never a mechanism to cheat on.

ReaganYou also called for a slow draw-down once the cease fire held. The casualty trajectory went the entirely other way.

Rush LindellI put a caveat on that one: "Unless Iran struck first." They struck first, so technically....

ReaganTechnically doesn't get you credit for the outcome.

Rush LindellOh, fair; I'll eat that, too; but there's got receipts, too; I've got the line where I said Tehran would break it within thirty days of any strike pause.

ReaganAnd?"--

Rush LindellThey broke it in twenty eight.

ReaganSure; my miss, since we're keeping score, I thought House Republicans would hold the line against any war powers vote.

Rush LindellFour of them didn't. Stripes named Congressman Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania as one of the four who crossed over.

ReaganI underestimated how many members are fielding calls from families who watched caskets come home.

Rush LindellSo we're even-I get the collapse, you get the defections.

ReaganGrade recorded. Same panel, next mess.

Speaker 3There will be a next one, and speaking of costs nobody predicted-

ReaganJust costs nobody predicted.

Speaker 3Oil just cracked two digits.

ReaganThat's the bet everybody's paying for, whether they're watching Congress or not.

Speaker 3Flip that CTA scorecard into dollars at the pump and this war stops being abstract fast.

ReaganABC News says Brent crude hit about a hundred dollars and sixty cents a barrel this week.

Speaker 3A hundred bucks up nearly twenty nine per cent in a single month-the Dow dropped five hundred twenty five points that same day.

ReaganThat's the market pricing in fear, not just barrels.

Speaker 3And somewhere out there a guy who promised gas under three bucks

Speaker 4a gallon will be elected.

Speaker 3Three bucks is awfully quiet right now.

ReaganAXIOS cited AAA data: the national average is near or above four dollars a gallon. This war opened at two dollars ninety eight cents back in late February.

Speaker 3A dollar a gallon since February-you feel that filling your tank, not watching cable news.

ReaganYou do. But separate two things-there's a war premium and there's structural supply, not the same animal.

Speaker 3Tell that to the guy at the pump, Reagan.

Speaker 5I will because it matters. The Houthis claim strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Hormuz is blockaded again. That's real barrels not moving.

Speaker 3So it's not just headlines spooking traders?

Speaker 5Some fears baked in, sure, but rerouted tankers and war risk insurance stack real cost on real cost.

Speaker 3So when some senator promises prices drop like a rock Rock the second we pull out.

Speaker 5That's not how oil markets work. You can't unblockade a strait with a press release.

Speaker 3Instant Relief from Politicians-Shocking!

Speaker 5Every single time.

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Speaker 5Okay, I'm listening.

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Speaker 5Wait, wait, wait. Below spot? That's not how this usually works.

Speaker 3I know, right? And Lear's covering the shipping and the taxes on top of it.

Speaker 5So what's the catch?

Speaker 3Limit one per person, new customers only, and it's a twenty-four hour offer, full stop.

Speaker 5Twenty-four hours; so this isn't a think it over kind of deal.

Speaker 3No, it is not; here's why that below spot number matters: spot price doesn't even include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead.

Rush LindellSo buying at spot is already a good deal.

ReaganBuying at spot is a good deal; buying below spot almost never happens.

Rush LindellAnd this isn't some obscure bullion piece nobody's heard of.

ReaganThe Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognized coins on the planet, backed by the U.S. government for weight and purity—one ounce of point nine nine nine fine silver.

Rush LindellIRA-eligible too, if you're thinking long term.

ReaganIRA-eligible, and it's fully insured shipping. straight to your door.

Rush LindellA tangible asset you can actually hold, not a line on a screen.

ReaganGo to www.RushCoinOffer.com right now. I mean right now because it's a 24-hour offer.

Rush LindellThe URL goes dark after that.

ReaganWhen it's gone, it's gone. www.RushCoinOffer.com

Rush LindellBack to barrels, because $4 gas is about to explain some very sudden convictions on Capitol Hill. HILL

ReaganFunny how a primary challenge clarifies a senator's feelings on war powers. I'm calling them the Fantastic Four of Fiscal-wait, wrong issue-the Foreign Policy Four.

Rush LindellCatchy; but consistency isn't a conspiracy Rush. Massie's voted this way on every war powers measure since twenty nineteen.

ReaganSure, but Collins, she's up for reelection in a state that hasn't gone red in decades and suddenly she finds her constitutional conscience?

Rush LindellOr she's voted for war powers limits before, too. You don't get to assume the worst motive just because the timing's convenient for her.

ReaganFine, fine; but CNN's reporting Trump called the Republicans who backed earlier resolutions losers who made his job harder.

Rush LindellWhich tells you everything about how he views dissent: not as principle, just inconvenience.

ReaganAnd here's the kicker: Gregory Meeks is threatening to force another vote. and drag the Administration into court over ignoring Congress entirely.

Rush LindellThat's the real fight, not who gets a nickname on Truth Social whether the executive branch has to answer to anybody.

ReaganI'll give you that one. Insults are cheap; contempt of Congress is expensive.

Rush LindellAnd Meeks is betting a judge agrees with him.

ReaganWe'll see if that bet pays off, because Trump's Truth Social feed didn't stop at losers. So Trump's out here running foreign policy like a vending machine now. One shot at a tanker, one bridge comes down. That's the actual math he posted.

Rush LindellA power plant for a missile! Very precise exchange rate for a man who doesn't do decimals.

ReaganRight? And Tehran didn't blink. They promised to hit regional energy and infrastructure right back. So now we've got two governments trading real estate over Truth Social. Sure.

Rush LindellAnd Euronews reported Trump told Axios he's close to deciding on something he called a "massive attack" bigger than anything so far.

ReaganBigger than ever before. I don't know if that's a war plan or a movie trailer.

Rush LindellComing this fall!

ReaganAnd get this, he says the tanker damage gets paid for with Iranian money the U.S. already controls, like he's running an insurance claim out of the Situation Room.

Rush LindellWhich is a real policy position, apparently.

ReaganHe's also pledging the U.S. will hold Tehran responsible for the Houthi strikes on those Red Sea tankers per CNBC, so now we own two fronts by post.

Rush LindellOkay, the bit's funny, but strip the jokes out: is any of this actually strategy, or is it just vibes with a countdown clock?

ReaganThat's the uncomfortable part: nobody's laughing if the Bridge Post turns into the Act. The actual order.

Rush LindellWhich brings up the question nobody in Washington wants to answer out loud.

ReaganWhich is who's actually allowed to give that order in the first place.

Rush LindellBecause posting a Doctrine isn't the same as having the authority to run it.

ReaganWith that vote map settled, let's talk about what these resolutions actually do-nothing, legally. Come on!

Rush LindellNo, listen, the House resolution is Concurrent; Concurrent resolutions don't go to the President, they don't carry force of law; it's Congress writing itself a strongly worded letter.

ReaganAnd the Senate one?

Rush LindellJoint resolution, binding if it passed, but even if it clears both chambers, Trump vetoes it, and overriding takes two thirds. That threshold isn't close.

ReaganSo Congress littered on a message, not a power.

Rush LindellExactly the distinction. And here's what bugs me; both parties like it this way. Nobody's touched the actual lever which is appropriations. Cut the funding, the war stops. Nobody's filing that bill.

ReaganBecause that's the one vote that actually cost you something back home.

Rush LindellMm-hmm. Right. Roll call's coverage of the Senate vote noted Senator Van Hollen. Macallan framed this as Congress finally taking responsibility.

ReaganResponsibility? Responsibility looks like a signature on a funding bill, not a press release.

Rush LindellI'd push back slightly: symbolic votes do build a record, but if responsibility doesn't include the money, it's a word, not a policy.

ReaganA fig leaf with a hundred ninety co sponsors!

Rush LindellThat's one way to put it.

ReaganSo if the institution won't use its own power

Rush LindellThen the check moves somewhere else, and there's only one place left that actually votes on this in November.

ReaganForget the vote count. The real test is whether Trump's own voters stick around.

Rush LindellNewsNation citing Politico poll, only 37% of Trump supporters still back the war if it raises prices.

Reagan37? That was 50 back in May.

Rush Lindell50 in May, 37 now, 13 points gone in two months.

ReaganThat's not a crack. That's a fault line.

Rush LindellAnd the Hill's reporting GOP... GOP senators are now openly questioning whether Hegseth can actually manage this war!

ReaganWhen your own party's asking if the secretary knows what he's doing, that's a problem bigger than messaging.

Rush LindellSo, here's what I'm watching: Does the next war powers vote pick up more than four House Republicans?

ReaganI've got my eye on the Bab el-Mandeb—if that strait closes—gas prices stop being a talking point.

Rush LindellAnd I want the actual pump price on November first, not a poll about it.

ReaganSame. Numbers don't wobble; polls do.

Rush LindellGrade us on that next time.

ReaganWell, the big lesson tonight—grading our own predictions is brutal, huh?

Rush LindellBeing directionally right isn't the same as being right. I own that on the defections count.

ReaganAnd I own the ceasefire call. Wrong mechanism, not just wrong timing.

Rush LindellThat's the takeaway, really. This war keeps punishing certainty. Both sides of the aisle.

ReaganWhich is why we keep score out loud instead of pretending we nailed it.

Rush LindellExactly the point of doing this show.

ReaganAlright, if you like tonight, subscribe, leave us five stars, and drag a friend into the fight with you.

Rush LindellNew episodes every weekday. We'll be tracking those approval numbers and Hegseth doubts closely.

ReaganAnd, Reagan, next time no mercy on my predictions.

Rush LindellNone promised.

ReaganFair enough. Thanks for spending the hour with us.

Rush LindellSee you tomorrow.