Monday: The Supreme Court Is About to Light Everything on Fire

Rush LindellYou know what nobody wants to say? June at the Supreme Court is more consequential than any session of Congress this decade. The 14th Amendment, the Second Amendment, Title IX, presidential firing power, all of it dropping before summer recess.

ReaganCBS News has been tracking the term's remaining cases, and the scope is genuinely striking: birthright citizenship, transgender athlete bans, gun rights for drug users, the independence of federal agencies.

Rush LindellTwenty-three cases, all of it due before these nine people pack up and go on vacation.

ReaganAnd the term was already a blockbuster before today: the court struck down Trump's tariffs, weakened the Voting Rights Act. This is the encore.

Rush LindellAnd here's what gets me: the rulings still on the table aren't procedural housekeeping; they're the ones that reshape the country. Trump versus Barbara on birthright citizenship. The trans athlete. Fleet bands out of West Virginia and Idaho. A Second Amendment case the NRA and the ACLU somehow ended up on the same side of.

ReaganThat last one deserves more than a sentence.

Rush LindellOh, it's getting a whole segment, trust me.

ReaganAnd on the executive power side, Trump v. Slaughter goes after a 1935 precedent that's protected independent agency heads from getting fired by the president. If the court guts it, that touches the FTC, the NLRB, the FCC.

Rush LindellAnd possibly the Fed, which is where it gets genuinely interesting.

ReaganThat's the fault line we'll walk through.

Rush LindellPlus, and I'm not going to oversell this, we close with a mock nickname draft for all nine justices based on their oral argument performances this term.

ReaganYou'll oversell it.

Rush LindellProbably. First up, the Fourteenth Amendment and what a hundred and twenty eight years of precedent may or may not survive. Before we dive in, a quick reminder. We love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. All right, here's what's going on right now, and I want you to listen closely. Twenty-three cases, that's what's sitting on the Supreme Court's docket before these justices pack up for the summer. Twenty-three, and they've got to get through all of them by late June, maybe early July.

ReaganAnd these aren't routine cases. CBS News ran through the list. Birthright citizenship, transgender athlete bans, gun rights, presidential firing power. The 14th Amendment, the Second Amendment, Title IX, all in the same month.

Rush LindellJust a light docket, nothing major. NPR confirmed 23 cases left out of 58 argued this term. The court already took down Trump's tariffs. already weakened the Voting Rights Act, and they're not done.

ReaganThat's the part people aren't fully tracking — the blockbusters that already landed, those are the warm-up.

Rush LindellRight — and here's what gets me. This isn't a normal end-of-term sprint. Every major case left has Trump's fingerprints on it. Every. Single. One.

ReaganMm-hmm.

Rush LindellYou've got the president's ability to fire Fed governors. You've got his executive order rewriting... Hitting birthright citizenship, you've got state trans-athlete bans his administration is backing.

ReaganU.S. news pointed out several of these decisions could upend election processes heading into the midterms, so the stakes aren't just constitutional, they're immediate.

Rush LindellAnd whatever comes down stays down. That's the thing about Supreme Court rulings. There's no press conference, no walk back, no, the president didn't mean it that way.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellFive votes and it's settled law.

ReaganWhich is why conservatives either bank a generational win in the next few weeks or they watch this court punt on the things that matter most.

Rush LindellYeah, and punting has consequences, too. The culture war conversation heading into summer gets rewritten either way.

ReaganEither way, the country gets an answer.

Rush LindellSo here's the question I want you sitting with when the Court takes up a century old understanding of who gets to be an American. American, how far are five justices willing to go? All right. Birthright citizenship. Executive Order 14160, Day 1 of Trump's second term. The order says children born here to parents who were in the country illegally or on temporary visas no longer get automatic citizenship. Every court that's seen it has blocked it. Every single one.

Speaker 3And the Library of Congress analysis makes clear why: the government is fighting a one hundred twenty eight year old Supreme Court precedent, United States v. Wong Kim Ark (eighteen ninety eight), born in San Francisco to Chinese parents who couldn't naturalize. Court said he was a citizen, full stop.

Rush LindellThat case is the wall; and you know what nobody wants to say out loud: the government has to convince five justices to read Wong Kim Ark differently than nearly every court has for over a century. That's the ask.

Speaker 3The hinge is "subject to the jurisdiction thereof." The Government's argument is that parental immigration status determines whether a child falls under that phrase. It's a narrow, originalist reading, but the oral argument signals did not go their way.

Rush LindellTrump flew up and sat in that court room on April first for over an hour.

Speaker 3Wow!

Rush LindellApril Fool's Day! I'm not editorializing—that's just the date.

Speaker 3The skepticism from the justices, including Trump appointees, was pretty hard to miss. A ruling is expected by late June or early July.

Rush LindellHere's my read: If the court upholds this order, even on narrow statutory grounds, it's the biggest immigration ruling in a century. Two hundred fifty thousand U.S.-born children a year are affected by this question. Now,

Speaker 3here's where I push back, not on the policy debate, but on the mechanism: an executive order rewriting a constitutional clause is a significant ask; if Congress wants to define subject to the jurisdiction differently, that's a legitimate fight, but five justices doing it through an EO feels like a shortcut that creates its own problems.

Rush LindellI hear that; the legal path is messy, and the ruling hasn't dropped yet. We're waiting. But the Fourteenth Amendment is the thread running through this whole term. Citizenship clause here, Equal Protection clause next, because the trans athlete cases rest

Speaker 4on it.

Rush LindellJust on that same amendment. Same amendment, different battle ground. These two cases, West Virginia vs. BPJ and Little vs. Hecox, hit the court January thirteenth, trans athlete bans, and SCOTUSblog reported the conservative majority looked ready to uphold them.

ReaganThat reading is pretty well supported. The question at oral arguments wasn't really whether the bans survive, it's how broadly the court writes the ruling.

Rush LindellAnd that is where I want my victory lap, Reagan. Nearly 30 states have these laws on the books. A clean ruling validates all of them at once.

ReaganOkay, hold on, because the Idaho case has a wrinkle worth flagging. Lindsey Hecox's actually tried to voluntarily dismiss her case. The district court said no, but that mootness question doesn't just disappear.

Rush LindellSo the court might sidestep Idaho entirely?

ReaganPossibly. West Virginia may be the only ruling we actually get. Yet which matters because the two laws are written differently.

Rush LindellThey couldn't just let us have the clean sweep.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellI know, I know, the law is complicated-fine.

ReaganBut here's what conservatives should actually want precision on: both cases hinge on equal protection under the Fourteenth, the same clause we just finished unpacking on birthright, a sweeping ruling that defines sex categorically. could generate precedent that travels well beyond athletics.

Rush LindellYou're saying win the battle, lose the

ReaganThe broader equal protection war, potentially, yes. The justices who seemed skeptical of a sweeping decision weren't all on the left; even Gorsuch questioned where the line is.

Rush LindellGorsuch?

ReaganRight. CBS News flagged this, too. The term isn't just about one culture war headline, the structural implications of how the court writes this opinion And matter as much as the outcome.

Rush LindellSo Reagan says win, but read the fine print.

ReaganI'd take the W. I just want to understand what we actually won.

Rush LindellFair enough, and speaking of coalitions that make zero sense, wait until you hear who's on the same side in the next case, the NRA, the ACLU, together. I am not making that up. Okay, weed, guns, and the most unlikely coalition in Washington

ReaganI genuinely love this one.

Rush LindellSo here's the setup. A Texas man, Ali Hemani, FBI searches his home. They find a Glock 19, roughly 60 grams of marijuana, and some cocaine.

ReaganWow.

Rush LindellFederal law says drug users can't own guns. Felony charge. The Fifth Circuit throws the whole thing out. Unconstitutional.

ReaganAnd that law, 18 U.S.C. 922(g). (g) is the same statute that got Hunter Biden convicted.

Rush LindellSame exact law. And you know who's now defending it before the Supreme Court? The Trump DOJ. You cannot make this up.

ReaganSeriously.

Rush LindellThe NRA hates this law. The ACLU hates this law. And the Trump administration is standing up there arguing to keep it.

ReaganTo be fair, the Second Amendment principle here is real. Still, separate from the comedy, the ACLU's argument is that unlawful user is so vague it invites discriminatory enforcement, and they're right about that.

Rush LindellOh, I agree, the principle is solid; I just enjoy the image of the NRA and ACLU filing briefs on the same side. That doesn't happen.

ReaganAccording to reporting from the Trace, several justices at oral arguments in March seemed skeptical the ban even clears constitutional review. you, especially for marijuana users.

Rush LindellSo the court appears ready to side with Hemani, maybe on narrow grounds. Maybe they rule he wasn't proven dangerous. But the bigger question is how far they go.

ReaganRight, because if they strike it down broadly, you're talking about millions of Americans in legal weed states who currently can't own firearms under federal law.

Rush LindellAnd here's the kicker. Hunter Biden was pardoned before... For any of this mattered for him; so he skated; the guy who started the conversation walks free and the court might fix the law anyway.

ReaganThe legal system doing its job just slower than the pardon.

Rush LindellMuch slower. All right, from one man's Glock to the President's power over an entire bureaucracy, that's a different kind of firepower.

Speaker 3Now from there, presidential power over the bureaucracy. This one doesn't get the headlines, but it might be the most consequential ruling of the entire term.

ReaganI'd argue it absolutely is. So the case is Trump versus Slaughter. Trump fired FTC Commissioner Rebecca Humphreys, no cause given, and she sued. The statute says you can only remove an FTC commissioner for inefficiency, neglect, neglect of duty, or malfeasance, that protection has been law since nineteen thirty five.

Speaker 3Humphrey's Executor, ninety one years old!

ReaganNinety one years, and the court is now being asked to overrule it outright. If it does, the president gains at-will removal power over the FTC, the NLRB, the FCC, the alphabet soup of agencies that have operated independently since the New Deal.

Speaker 3Agencies that answer to nobody elected. Nobody voted for the FTC. Nobody chose these commissioners. That's exactly the problem.

ReaganNow, here's where I push back slightly. The independence was the point. Congress designed it that way deliberately to insulate regulatory decisions from election cycle politics.

Speaker 3Sure, and Franklin Roosevelt didn't like it either. The 1935 court slapped him down. But Roberts, Roberts at oral argument. Called Humphrey's Executor, a dry husk of whatever people used to think it was. That's the Chief Justice.

ReaganYeah, that's not subtle signaling.

Speaker 3Right.

ReaganThe court signaled in Slaughter it's likely going Trump's way. Then comes the harder case, Trump v. Cook.

Speaker 3The Fed Reserve angle.

ReaganLisa Cook, Fed governor, Trump fired her over mortgage fraud allegations, by the way, via Truth Social, and the court went cold. And cold. Conservative justices who were ready to torch Humphreys and slaughter suddenly got very cautious when the Fed was on the table.

Speaker 3Because the Fed is different. The court has already signaled it sees the Fed as uniquely structured. You break Fed independence, markets don't wait for an appeal.

ReaganExactly. So the court may split the ruling. Gut Humphreys for the FTC and the NLRB.

Rush LindellI'll be-but carve out the Fed.

ReaganWhich means we could get one ruling that reshapes eighty years of administrative law and leaves the most consequential question half answered.

Rush LindellThe most consequential case of the term, and half the country has never heard either name in it?

ReaganAnd speaking of names, we've got nine justices who've been asking questions all term long. I've been taking notes. I have thoughts.

Rush LindellOh no

ReaganOh, yes, we'll get into those next. All right-I've been taking notes all term, nine justices, every argument, and I've got nicknames for all of them.

Rush LindellThis is going to go well.

ReaganAll right, Roberts first-Chief Justice John Roberts-I'm calling him Serenity now, because he makes that face every time a colleague goes three minutes over on a question nobody asked.

Rush LindellSo does SCOTUSblog actually described that face. That's real.

ReaganIt's documented. Next, Clarence Thomas barely speaks during argument-maybe seven thousand words all term, seven thousand-I'm calling him Silent but Deadly.

Rush LindellMmm, accurate.

ReaganGorsuch: He raised his voice at a veteran appellate attorney this term for mischaracterizing the other side: "I'm calling him 'the Referee.'

Rush LindellHe does have that energy.

ReaganKavanaugh: chatty, friendly, always checking on the lawyers. Flight Attendant: Is there anything else I can get you?

Rush LindellStop!

ReaganBarrett: Sharp, fast, does not wait for you to finish The Guillotine.

Rush LindellThat one I'll allow.

ReaganNow the liberal side—Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson—the three of them spend oral argument trying to minimize losses—they're not winning cases this term, they're negotiating the size of the defeat—I'm calling them, and I'm proud of this, the Loss Mitigation Team.

Rush LindellThat's actually not wrong.

ReaganJackson talks the most out of any justice on the bench,

Rush LindellWow.

Reaganby a mile, so she's Overtime. Sotomayor is the Dissent Factory. Kagan is the... I

Rush LindellThe smart one.

Reaganwas going to say the strategist, but...

Rush LindellShe's the one the other two are waiting on to write the dissent that'll age well. That's not a nickname. That's actually her job.

ReaganYeah, that one landed.

Rush LindellYou had eight good ones. I'll take it.

ReaganAll right, Reagan's taken the wheel, so here's the cheat sheet: the Court drops rulings any day between now and the end of June. No announcements in advance; you wake up Thursday morning and it's there or it isn't, and then maybe it's early July. U.S. news reported the justices have pushed major rulings into July in recent years.

Rush LindellSo what does a conservative win actually look like when these land?

ReaganGreat question. Let me tell you what it does not look like. It does not look like a five-word headline that says, Court Upholds Birthright Citizenship. That tells you nothing. You need to know, did they rule on the merits of the Fourteenth Amendment, or did they just block the executive order on procedural grounds? Those are completely different outcomes with completely different consequences two years from now.

Rush LindellThat's the honest caveat here, Rush: a narrow ruling? one that dodges the constitutional question can actually create more legal uncertainty than a clean loss would. If the Court punts on Birthright Citizenship, that fight doesn't end, it just migrates back down to the lower courts and takes another decade to resolve.

ReaganSame with the trans athlete cases. If Idaho gets tossed on mootness, which we talked about, West Virginia controls. But how broadly did they write it? Did it, did they touch Equal Protection or did they keep it narrow to Title IX? That's the sentence in the ruling that actually matters.

Rush LindellAnd the Humphreys Executor case-if Roberts writes a carve out for the Fed and torches everything else, the headline will say "Court Expands Presidential Power." But the real question is where the carve out ends. That line gets litigated for the next twenty years.

ReaganSo here's what I want you to do. When these rulings drop, skip the chyron, find the actual holding, ask did the majority rule on the constitutional question, or did they find a narrower exit that one sentence tells you everything.

Rush LindellRead past page one.

ReaganRead past page one. That's it. The Court doesn't owe you a clean answer, but you owe the real one. Go find it. All right, that's the show—Twenty-three cases, four constitutional battlegrounds, and one very uncomfortable nickname draft.

Rush LindellFor the record, the nickname draft was entirely Rush's idea.

ReaganGuilty. Look, the bottom line today is this. The rulings dropping out of this court in the next few weeks aren't abstract. They land on real people, real policy, and real elections.

Rush LindellThat's the frame I'd carry out of this episode. Whether it's birthright citizenship, the trans athlete bans, or what happens to independent agency heads, you've got the tools now to read those opinions when they drop. Procedural punt versus constitutional decision. Narrow versus sweeping:

ReaganRight.

Rush Lindellthat distinction matters.

ReaganFive votes and it's settled law. That's not dramatic, that's just how it works. So pay attention.

Rush LindellPay attention and subscribe, so you don't miss the episode where we actually have answers.

ReaganNew episodes every weekday. If you got something out of today, leave us a five star review, hit subscribe, tell a friend. Reagan, always a pleasure.

Rush LindellThanks, Rush. We'll see you next time.

Speaker 3Mm-hmm.