Friday: Trump Loves the Inflation. Your Wallet Doesn't.

Rush Lindell: What nobody wants to say? Five words. Five words that may be the most politically self-destructive sentence uttered in the Oval Office this decade: Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: I love the inflation. That's the President of the United States on the record as CPI just hit 4.2%, a three-year high. Speaker 3: Set it with a smile, too. Rush Lindell: Like a man who just found a twenty in an old jacket. Meanwhile, grocery bills are climbing, wages aren't keeping up, and CNBC is running the quote on a Chiron. Speaker 3: Mm-hmm. Rush Lindell: This is the show today. Speaker 3: And look, there's actually a case buried in there! Energy is driving the bulk of that headline number, the Iran war is a real variable, and core inflation is sitting at two point nine. The White House has a defense; whether it holds up is a separate question. Rush Lindell: That's the question. Does he have a defensible economic argument, or did he just hand every critic a quote that will outlive this news cycle? We're going to work through both sides of that. Speaker 3: We'll break down the May CPI print, what's actually in it, and what the Tariff-to-Price pipeline looks like now that retailers have stopped absorbing the hit. Rush Lindell: And then there's Marjorie Taylor Greene calling the line a punch in the gut on CNN and gifting Democrats a ready-made campaign ad heading into the midterms, which is a sentence I did not expect to write this week. Speaker 3: Wild week. Rush Lindell: Wild week. We'll also get into what this means for swing district Republicans six months from November. From November, trap or opening? Speaker 3: And we close on what a principled conservative accountability case actually looks like—not the talking points—the real argument. Rush Lindell: Four-point-two per cent.--I love the inflation. Let's find out if those two things can coexist. The show starts right now. Before we dig in, a quick reminder: we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. I love the inflation. That's the quote. Oval Office, reporters standing right there, BLS just dropped a CPI reading of 4.2 percent year over year, the first time it cracked 4 percent since 2023. And that is what the President of the United States said. Speaker 3: I mean, you almost have to respect the audacity. Rush Lindell: He didn't stumble into it, either. He went further. Time reported he said inflation is going to come down like a rock. Rock, once the Iran war ends; so that's the argument. This is war inflation, temporary, not his fault. Speaker 3: And look, that argument has a real economic basis: energy accounts for more than sixty percent of the CPI increase according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If you end the conflict, energy prices ease, the headline number drops. That logic is not crazy. Rush Lindell: The logic isn't crazy, the sentence is crazy. Speaker 3: Yeah, Speaker 4: the sentence is a problem. Rush Lindell: You know what nobody wants to say; a President can have a defensible economic read and still hand every political opponent a loaded weapon and then act surprised when they pull the trigger. Speaker 3: The Hill reported that even Marjorie Taylor Greene said this quote is going to bite him. That's not a Democrat talking; that's his own base flagging the optics. Rush Lindell: When Marjorie Taylor Greene is the voice of restraint, hold on, let that land, you stepped in something. Speaker 4: The White House is now running two stories simultaneously. Prices are up sharply, but trust us, they'd be worse without us. That's a very hard sell at a grocery store. Rush Lindell: CNBC put it straight: Elevated prices have cost the average household more than three thousand one hundred dollars. That's not a data point, that's a Speaker 5: kick. Rush Lindell: That's a kitchen table number; people feel that. Speaker 3: And the question that actually matters-the one the White House framing does not answer-is how much of that pain is war, and how much was already baked in before a single missile flew. Rush Lindell: Yeah, and that's exactly where the CPI report gets interesting. So let's actually look at what four point two percent means when you break it down. The BLS data shows energy accounted for over 60 percent of the entire monthly increase. Strip that out, core inflation, food and energy excluded, sits at two point nine percent annually, which is the number the White House is going to quote every single time. Exactly. And on a spreadsheet, that argument has some merit. All right, but here's my problem with it: the person filling up a tank and buying ground beef doesn't live on a spreadsheet. Speaker 6: Right. Right. Rush Lindell: Nobody sits at the dinner table going, well, Core is 2.9, so I'm fine. No, and the grocery aisle is where this gets specific. AEI's analysis shows ground beef prices were up roughly seventeen point nine percent and coffee up roughly thirty one point nine percent between January and late In late twenty twenty five. Those aren't one time shocks; tariffs are a contributing factor AEI names directly. Wake coffee up thirty one percent? Nearly thirty two percent. Brazil faces a fifty percent tariff on its exports to the US. And we get roughly a third of our coffee beans from Brazil. There's nowhere else to source it at that scale. So you've got energy driving the headline number and groceries quietly doing their own damage underneath it. Speaker 7: And the White House gets to point at the headline and say, "See? Energy, Iran, War." Right. And that argument is not wrong, but it conveniently ignores what was already baked in before the first missile flew. The Tax Foundation estimates current tariff policy, what's left after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA levies in February, still amounts to roughly seven hundred dollars per household this year. a year, seven hundred dollars on top of energy, on top of energy. So the question isn't whether the Iran war pushed prices up, it did. The question is what floor prices were already sitting on before it did. And that floor was built in Washington, which is exactly where the next conversation goes because the pipeline from tariff policy to your shopping cart is more direct than most people realize. Rush Lindell: So while Washington points at Tehran for every price spike, retailers have been running their own quiet little experiment. Let me call it what it is, the delayed pain tour. Reagan: That is unfortunately accurate. Rush Lindell: The whole 2025 story was absorption. Retailers swallowed the tariff costs, kept prices steady, protected their margins just long enough. Now that inventory's gone. Reagan: And the Federal Reserve actually documented this. Fed researchers published a note in April. They found tariffs implemented through November 2025 I've raised core goods PCE prices by three point one percent through February twenty twenty six, and they're direct about Rush Lindell: Wow. Reagan: it. That figure, quote, explains the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre pandemic rates. Rush Lindell: Wait, entirety? Not contributed to, Not was a factor in. Reagan: Entirety. Dollar for dollar. Rush Lindell: So the receipt was always coming; it just took a year to arrive. arrive. Reagan: Morningstar's got a similar read. Durable goods, electronics, appliances, tools—they're projecting a cumulative 4.5% increase over the 2025 to 2027 window. We're in the middle of that window right now. Rush Lindell: And this is the distinction the White House does not want voters drawing: Iran is real-energy costs from that conflict are real-but energy and goods inflation are two different animals running in the same direction. Reagan: Right; and when you blend them together into one headline number you can blame one and ignore the other. That's the whole strategy. Rush Lindell: You know what that press release would look like: "This appliance price increase was brought to you by the Iran war." Some restrictions apply. Tariff contribution not included. See shells for details. Reagan: Rush. Rush Lindell: I'm serious. That's the gift receipt version of inflation policy. Reagan: The problem is some people inside the coalition are starting to notice the receipt, and one of them just went on CNN to say so. Rush Lindell: Someone inside the coalition just noticed the receipt and went on CNN to say so. Reagan: And not just anyone, Marjorie Taylor Greene. Rush Lindell: Marjorie Taylor Greene on CNN with Kaitlan Collins agreeing with the Democratic attack line. I want everyone to sit with that for a second. Reagan: The Hill covered it. Her exact words. Rush Lindell: Wow. Reagan: He basically just handed the Democrats a great Big Big Campaign Ad for the twenty twenty six Midterms. Rush Lindell: Campaign ad-handed to them-free of charge-no production budget required. Reagan: She also called it, and I'm reading this directly, a punch in the gut to every single American struggling to pay their bills. Rush Lindell: She called it a punch in the gut, which means the most loyal corners of the MAGA coalition are now using the exact same language as the DNC. THE TALKING POINTS MEMO. Reagan: And that's the real story, not the optics of which channel she chose. Republican operatives have been saying this privately for months. Greene just said it out loud, on camera, to a national audience. Rush Lindell: Wait, wait. She also reminded everyone that MAGA spent four years screaming about Biden inflation, their words, at the top of their lungs. Reagan: Right. So the argument that this president gets a pass because Because it's his inflation, that doesn't survive contact with the base's own history. Rush Lindell: You know what nobody wants to say? When MTG is your early warning system, you don't have a messaging problem. You have a substance problem. Reagan: That's the signal worth watching. This isn't Greene going rogue for attention. It's a data point about where base tolerance for economic pain actually sits. And that tolerance appears to have a ceiling. Rush Lindell: Which brings us to November, because every swing district Republican now has to answer one question. Reagan: Do you love it too? Rush Lindell: Good luck with that one. So the question every swing district Republican is waking up with right now: What do you run on in November? Because that Oval Office moment follows you onto every debate stage. Reagan: And the numbers make it worse. Brookings had Trump's approval on handling inflation at just 30 percent as of late April, first time since 2010 that Democrats poll higher on the economy than Republicans. Rush Lindell: Thirty percent! You know what I call that? The survival crouch. That's the posture every Republican Speaker 3: Republican in a swing district is doing right now—head down, arms up—hoping the quota doesn't land on them. Reagan: I get the visual, but I actually think there's an opening there for a candidate who gets out in front of it, proactively. You don't have to love the inflation; you can say you don't. Speaker 3: You think a Republican in a Biden-to-Trump district can criticize the White House on kitchen table economics and survive the primary? Reagan: I think a Republican who doesn't is handing over the general. Girl.--Look at what Brian Fitzpatrick said; CNBC quoted him directly. Speaker 3: Mm-hmm. Reagan: When half of America is living paycheck to paycheck, the word "ballroom" should not be in anyone's vocabulary. Speaker 3: He said that out loud. Reagan: He did, and Fitzpatrick represents a swing district in Pennsylvania; he's not committing political suicide; he's trying to survive. Speaker 3: Okay, fair Reagan: Yeah. Speaker 3: ; but here's my problem: Fitzpatrick can pull that off because he has a brand. The freshman in a marginal district? No brand, no runway-I love the inflation is now the default Republican position in every Democrat ad from now until November. Reagan: Which is exactly why the ones who establish distance early have a shot-not separation from the party-separation from the moment. Speaker 3: That's a real distinction, I'll give you that. Reagan: The voters who need convincing aren't asking for a party switch; they're asking for one Republican to look them in the eye on grocery prices. grocery prices. Speaker 3: And the White House's answer to all of this? Still pointing at Biden, which we need to get into that because that clock has an expiration date on it, and I think the May CPI data just punched it. Rush Lindell: The White House's current answer to everything-and I mean everything-is some version of "prices would be worse under a Democrat." That's the whole defense. That's the clock they're running. Reagan: Right, and the numbers in some categories actually support that framing: Biden averaged 5% inflation annually; the comparison isn't invented. Rush Lindell: Right, but you can't win a grocery run with a history lesson. Nobody at the checkout counter cares what Joe- Speaker 3: Joe Biden would have done. Reagan: Which is exactly what happened to Biden and Harris. They ran the transitory argument until it stopped working; now the same logic is running in reverse. Speaker 3: CNBC's Q1 2026 All-America Economic Survey had Trump's net approval Rush Lindell: on the economy at negative 21, Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: his lowest ever across both terms. That clock I mentioned? Reagan: It's not ticking anymore. Rush Lindell: It expired right there in the poll. Reagan: The comparison to Biden isn't wrong on the merits, but leading with a dead man's economic record when CPI just crossed Four-point-two percent is a losing argument. Rush Lindell: You know what nobody wants to say? The White House isn't even making an affirmative case. They're just pointing backwards and hoping voters don't look forward. Reagan: And voters are looking forward. They're doing it at the grocery store, at the At the Pump, CNBC reported elevated prices have cost the average household more than three thousand one hundred dollars by one estimate. That's not Biden-era money, that's now. Rush Lindell: The "blame Biden" clock had a stamp on it the day I took office; the May CPI print just punched it. So, if that argument is done-and I think it is-the question becomes what does a credible conservative case actually look like from here? Reagan: That's exactly where we're going. Rush Lindell: So where does that leave us? The better-than-Biden clock has expired. The question now is what conservatives actually do with that. Reagan: The policy picture is not fixed. The Section 301 tariffs expire July 24th. The USTR has two Section 301 investigations running, and those could replace them with something permanent. No time cap, no rate ceiling. That's a real fork in the road. Rush Lindell: And that fork is exactly where the right needs to show up with a real argument, not a press release. Reagan: The credible conservative case isn't complicated: separate the tariff-driven goods inflation from the war-driven energy spike, they're different problems with different levers, then demand a real timeline from the White House, not when the war ends, an actual timeline, because when the war ends is not a fiscal policy. Rush Lindell: When the war ends is what you say when you don't have Speaker 5: a clue. Rush Lindell: Don't have a policy! Reagan: And stop treating CPI like a political football. This administration spent years calling out Democrats for doing exactly that. The argument that the number matters when it's going down, and doesn't matter when it's going up, that's not a governing philosophy; that's a scoring system. Rush Lindell: Right; and voters who put this Administration in office on a lower prices mandate deserve better than a shrug and a smile from the Oval Office. Reagan: The opening is there for any Conservative willing to take it: name the two inflations, demand the time line, hold the line on what the number actually Speaker 3: Mm Reagan: means Speaker 3: -hmm. Reagan: -that's accountability. Rush Lindell: That's also why this show exists, Reagan. Reagan: It is. Rush Lindell: And a President walks into the Oval Office, CPI hits a three year high at Four-point-two percent, and he says, I love the inflation. Somebody has to say that's not a win. That's a confession. Reagan: Yeah, it is. Rush Lindell: We'll be right back. All right, that's a wrap on today's show. And what a show! Four words define this whole thing. I love the inflation. Reagan: Four words, Oval Office, CPI at 4.2%, the gift that keeps giving. Rush Lindell: To Democrats, apparently. That was Marjorie Taylor Greene's point, and she's not wrong. Reagan: Look, we separated the two inflations today. Energy-driven war inflation is real and potentially... Potentially temporary. Tariff driven grocery pain that was baked in before the first missile flew. Rush Lindell: And the White House's better than Biden defense? Speaker 4: Hmm. Rush Lindell: We walked through exactly why that clock ran out. Reagan: The principled case isn't complicated: demand a real policy timeline. Stop treating CPI as a political prop. Rush Lindell: Accountability isn't disloyalty. Say it loud enough and maybe someone in a swing district hears it. Reagan: That's the show. Rush Lindell: Subscribe, leave us five stars, tell a friend who needs to hear this. New episodes every weekday. We'll be back tomorrow. Reagan: Yeah, thanks for writing this one out with us. See you then.