Texas Showdown: The Senate Seat MAGA Could Actually Lose, May 12

RachelMm-hmm

JordynWelcome to Red Flag. I'm Rachel and Jordyn is here and oh, we have. Have receipts today. So many receipts. Texas-sized receipts. Okay, so get this. I mean, we're two weeks out from the May 26th runoff. And Cornyn's own words, his actual pre-primary warning that a Paxton nomination would be a GOP massacre in Texas, are sitting right next to polls showing Democrat James Talarico leading both Republicans in general election head-to-head. Heads.

Speaker 3Deadpan warned them in writing. Out loud! and yet here we are." According to Texas public opinion research, Talarico leads Cornyn forty four to forty one and leads Paxton by five points, forty six to forty one.

JordynTotally fine. Nothing to see here.

Speaker 3Chuckling, we're also going to dig into Paxton's background: securities fraud indictment, impeachment acquittal, divorce filed on biblical grounds. And somehow the guy is still leading in the primary.

JordynSo here's the plot twist. University of Houston's Hobby School has Paxton at 48, Cornyn at 45 among likely runoff voters. Dead heat.

Speaker 3And then there's Trump, who promised an endorsement in early March and has now been silent for 10 weeks while the whole thing just burns, which is its own kind of answer.

JordynWe run the receipt check on that promise, the SAVE America Act gambit, Cornyn's same day filibuster flip then reversal,

Speaker 3Well?

Jordynall of it.

Speaker 3CNN reporting three insiders no longer expect Trump to weigh in at all.

JordynAnd we close with Friendly Fire, where we admit what the left got right this week. Spoiler: it's a lot. Playfully, it pains me to say it, but yeah, May 26th is close. Let's get into it. Cold open right now. If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.

Speaker 3a sitting Republican senator about his own party's likely nominee.

JordynSaid that out loud at a campaign stop in Texas.

Speaker 3In Fort Worth.

JordynI mean, here's the thing, Jordan. He wasn't wrong. According to Texas Public Opinion Research, Democrat James Talarico is leading. Getting both Cornyn and Paxton in head-to-heads right now.

Speaker 3Talarico leads Cornyn 44 to 41, leads Paxton 46 to 41, and that's the TPOR data from April, which is remarkable.

JordynA separate University of Texas poll has it even wider, seven points over Cornyn, eight over Paxton. In Texas? In Texas! Texas hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Eight. Phil Gramm is a senator. The Berlin Wall is still standing. I mean, that's the last time.

Speaker 3Okay, so to be fair, no Democrat has won a statewide race there since 1994. The math isn't in their favor. But the polling is saying something else is happening.

JordynNo, and the Cook Political Report still calls the seat likely Republican.

Speaker 3But the independents are breaking for Talarico by over 20 points in some of these polls.

JordynRight, right, right. And the guy who called the fire alarm is the same. Same senator currently begging voters to pick him over the impeached attorney general.

Speaker 3Very relatable pitch.

JordynVote for me or we all die" is a real campaign strategy, I guess.

Speaker 3Oh, man, so the actual question isn't just who wins the runoff on May twenty sixth, it's how you get here in the first place.

JordynNo, the question is how you end up here, in a state that's been reliably Red for three decades, with two Republican candidates, where one's warning the other is unelectable and the polling is backing him up-how does that happen? They requires a little background. So who are these two guys, actually?

Speaker 3Right. Let's start with Cornyn, because he is the textbook definition of a Senate lifer, in office since 2002, former majority whip, one of McConnell's closest allies. Twenty-three years of institutional investment. Twenty-three years in the Senate, and he's going to lose it to Ken Paxton? Maybe? The spending numbers are genuinely wild. According to the Texas Tribune, satellite groups backing Cornyn dropped around sixty million dollars in the primary alone. Sixty million dollars! And he still couldn't close it out in March. He led Paxton by one and a half points, barely squeaked it out, and here's the tension: the gun bill. Cornyn co-authored the bipartisan Safer Communities Act after Uvalde, first major gun safety legislation in decades.

JordynStates, he staked his primary campaign on principle. For which he got booed off the stage at the Texas Republican Convention. Yeah, loudly. So that's your establishment guy. And then there's Ken Paxton.

Speaker 4Oh, Ken Paxton.

JordynWhere do you even start with him? He's been indicted for securities fraud since 2015, never actually gone to trial.

Speaker 4Eleven years.

JordynThen in May 2023, the Texas House impeached

Speaker 3He impeaches him one twenty one to twenty three, his own party; bribery, abusive office, all tied to his relationship with a donor named Nate Paul who was already under FBI investigation.

JordynI mean, Nate Paul allegedly paid for home renovations, found a job for someone Paxton was allegedly having an affair with, right? So Paxton goes to trial before the Texas Senate in September twenty twenty three, and the Senate acquits him. him on all sixteen articles, because they needed a two thirds vote, couldn't get there-only two Republicans crossed over. Right, and this is where it gets surreal: his wife, Angela, also a state senator, who had to sit through the entire impeachment trial, filed for divorce last July. Quietly, on biblical grounds. On biblical grounds, which, according to Texas Monthly, is evangelical shorthand for adultery. or adultery. So we've got securities fraud, impeachment, an FBI investigation that got quietly dropped, divorce on biblical grounds, and he's leading in the polls. I mean, leading by eight points, that April TPOR poll from Houston Public Media, after all of that, and I mean all of it.

Speaker 4I mean, I don't know what to do with that.

RachelI don't either. That's the part that doesn't compute. And the one person who could probably tip this thing one way or the other has

JordynTrump.

Rachelnot said a word. Not one endorsement over two months since the primary, which is notable and raises a whole question about what's actually happening there.

JordynThat's the part that doesn't add up, and that's exactly where we're going next. So here's the receipt. March 4th, after the primary, Trump posts on Truth Social, I will be making my endorsement soon and will be asking the candidate that I don't endorse to immediately drop out of the race.

RachelThat's not a soft hint. That's a declaration. And the fact that the Texas Tribune had it confirmed same day tells you Trump wanted this on the record, which makes the silence since even stranger. That was 10 weeks ago.

JordynSoon. No endorsement. Zero. I mean, according to CNN, three people close to the race say they no longer expect one at all, though he could still surprise everyone by May 26th.

RachelOkay, but here's where this actually gets genuinely wild, because while Trump sat on his hands, Paxton was not sitting on his. He was playing a completely different game.

JordynOh, he was not.

RachelPaxton posted that he'd consider dropping out, but...

Jordynonly if Senate Republicans killed the filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act.

RachelWow.

JordynThat's the condition. Kill a 60-year procedural norm or I stay in the race. And Cornyn, who had defended the filibuster for 24 years, who literally said nuking it would be tantamount to breaking the Senate, writes an op-ed in the New York Post saying, sure, whatever changes are necessary, let's do it. Within hours! Within hours, he then walked it back on camera. The Texas Tribune had both on record same day. So in one news cycle, Cornyn was for the filibuster, then against it, then for it again. And that's, yeah, that's the tension I can't shake about this whole thing. And Paxton saw all of this and posted, and I love this quote, in one week I made him more conservative than in the past 20 years. 24 years. And Cornyn's comeback was that Paxton is like a rooster crowing thinks he's the reason the sun came up.

RachelI mean, that's a good line. That's a genuinely good line. But here's the thing, Rachel. It doesn't change the underlying fact. Cornyn reversed a 24-year position because one guy with a securities fraud indictment threatened his stay in a race. CNN reported that the White House viewed Paxton's gambit as a, quote, genius move. They weren't wrong. And this is where Trump's silence stops being a quirk and starts being a structural problem. Brookings put out analysis today on intra-party tensions heading into 2026. Their read is that these primaries are the early test of whether Trump's grip on the party is holding or starting to fray.

JordynAnd Texas is right at the center of that test. Trump has endorsed 286 candidates this cycle in Republican primaries. He's weighed in on 19 of 33 Senate races, one of which he has conspicuously avoided.

RachelAnd that avoidance, it's doing something.

JordynConspicuously.

RachelA Republican strategist told CNN flatly, it's a mess. Which, yes.

JordynAnd the mess has a deadline. May 26th. So now flip this around. Who actually benefits in November from all of this?

RachelThat is exactly the question, because the polling on who wins a coin flip in the general is not reassuring for Republicans on either side of the.

JordynOut of this.

Speaker 3Hmm

JordynSo here's the number that stops me cold every time I look at it. Houston Public Media cited the Tea Party poll, 24% of Cornyn voters would rather send a Democrat to Washington than let Paxton represent the party. 24%. Sit with that for a second. One in four Cornyn supporters would rather send a Democrat to Washington than let Paxton represent the party.

RachelAnd the flip side, if Cornyn wins, only 10% of And of Paxton voters, say they defect.

JordynRight! So the asymmetry is the whole ball game: Cornyn losing hurts the general; Paxton losing barely does. The NRSC saw this coming; they put it in a memo: "Cornyn wins the general, Paxton puts the seat at risk." And the Tribune's Gabby Birenbaum reported that the Cornyn supporting super PAC's own polling memo said a Paxton nomination creates "measurable risk across every tier of the Texas ballot.

Rachelballot.

JordynEvery. Single. Tier. Senate, House, State House.

RachelA seat Texas Republicans haven't lost since 1988. Democrats last won it when George H.W. Bush was running for president.

JordynWhich is a while ago.

RachelYeah, slightly.

JordynSo here's where I get stuck, though. The TPOR data has Paxton up 53 to 36 among non-college voters, 52 to 34 among Latino Republicans. At

RachelWow.

Jordynleast. I mean, those are real voters making a real choice. That's the tension I can't shake. You've got Senate leaders waiving electability warnings and the voters are just not listening. Or they're listening and they just don't care, which is a different problem. Hmm. I'm on both sides a little bit here because there's something uncomfortable about saying voters made the wrong choice. To be fair, though, nobody actually laid the math out that directly. No, some people absolutely did.

RachelYeah.

JordynCornyn literally used the word massacre back in March, cold open. Yeah. So if the party knew and the voters voted how they voted anyway, at what point does the party own the outcome? Quietly. That's the question nobody's willing to say out loud. And the primaries in two weeks, May 26th, whatever answer they've got, they're about to live with it. And the fracture this race is exposing, it's not confined to Texas.

RachelThe education split, the realignment, that's the national party doing the sorting right here in one runoff, which is kind of exactly what we're heading toward.

JordynSure.

RachelHere's what zooms this out for me. Wesley Hunt took 13.5% in that primary, refused to endorse either candidate, says he's following Trump's lead, fine, but the University of Houston poll shows his voters breaking 54 to 35 for Paxton, and that's the thing that actually matters.

JordynSo Hunt's sitting on his hands and his voters are already deciding without him.

RachelRight, which means whoever owns those Hunt voters probably wins the runoff. Runoff, and right now Paxton is winning them.

JordynOkay, but here's what's genuinely interesting to me: the education breakdown in that uh Hobby School poll.

RachelOh, this is where it gets genuinely interesting.

JordynI mean, voters without a four-year degree favor Paxton by 17 points. College-educated voters flip to Cornyn by 10.

RachelA 27-point swing inside the same primary inside the same party.

JordynIn Texas! Jordan, that's not a Texas quirk. That's the national realignment just showing up in one race.

RachelNodding, Brookings put out their intra-party tensions piece today. Piece today, and this is exactly the framing that's been sitting with me. These primaries are stress tests. The question isn't just who wins Texas. It's whether the MAGA coalition can actually consolidate around someone and still win in November. That's the tension.

JordynAnd so far, the answer in this race is yeah, no.

RachelWell, we don't know yet. Runoffs May 26th. But the pattern Brookings is flagging, and honestly, it's the pattern. The pattern I keep seeing across 2026 is this. MAGA-aligned candidates have been winning primaries. The real question is whether they can convert those victories when the electorate expands. And the party has been warned about this exactly. Super PAC memo, the defection math, they knew. They knew and they voted anyway. So here's the uncomfortable place we land. The critics who've been saying for years that Republican primary voters Others will always choose ideological purity over electability. They're not right this time. And that's not coming from people in my corner of the political spectrum, which is notable. No, it really does not, which is actually what we have to get into next. So here is the friendly fire admission – and I mean, I hate that we have to do this. The left has been saying for years – and look, they're not wrong – primary voters pick ideological purity, the party scrambles in November, and spends a fortune defending seats they should never have had to fight for.

JordynTexas is that argument, in real time.

RachelAnd I can't say they're wrong. That's the part that stings. But yours is worse, Jordan – the filibuster flip.

JordynI know, I know. The critique that politicians ditch institutional principles for short-term self-preservation, that is a left-coded argument, and this week it is 100% accurate about Cornyn. A 24-year position reversed and then unreversed within a single news cycle. Times and NBC both call it self-preservation, not principle. I mean, I hate that I'm nodding. I hate that I agree with the people who said this. So here's what to watch on election. On election night, May 26th, early voting starts May 18th. Right. Three things. First, turnout among Hunt's voters. If that 54 to 35 Paxton lean actually shows up, it's over fast. Second, the education split. College versus non-college turnout. That's your real tell for whether this actually replicates nationally. And third, watch the margin. The University of Houston Hobby School has it at 4. At forty eight forty five if Cornyn closes that gap it means the electability argument still has some pull inside a MAGA primary. And if it doesn't then the critics were right and we'll say so. Okay, so here's where we land. A sitting senator literally used the word massacre to describe what happens if his own primary opponent wins the nomination.

RachelAnd then the voters went ahead and put that opponent up by eight points anyway.

JordynDeadpan. Red flag. MULTIPLE.

RachelThe TPOR poll had Talarico leading both of them in the general, independents breaking hard. That twenty four per cent defection number is the one I can't shake.

JordynNodding. And Trump still hasn't weighed in. Ten weeks, and soon.

RachelWow.

JordynThe silence is its own answer.

RachelMay twenty sixth: watch Hunt voter turnout, watch those undecideds and watch whether Cornyn's money actually moves the needle.

JordynThree signals-one night. We'll be here.

RachelMm-hmm.

JordynIf this episode made you think, share it with one friend who's been biting their tongue at Thanksgiving. Subscribe wherever you listen, leave a rating, and help us find more people in that politically homeless space. Thanks for sticking with us through this one, Rachel. We'll reconvene on the other side. See you on the other side of May twenty sixth, Jordyn. Later everyone!