They Folded in 24 Hours: Senate's War Powers Cave, Jun 30

Rachel: Hmm Jordyn: Welcome back to Red Flag; I'm Rachel, and Jordyn, I have to say this week's episode practically wrote itself. Yeah, if by wrote itself you mean a sitting senator got called a lunatic by the president, had a screaming match, flipped his boat within twenty four hours, and somehow called it a win. Speaker 3: That is exactly what I mean. Jordyn: Just another Tuesday in the United States Senate. Okay, so the set-up: the Senate voted fifty forty eight to advance an Iran War Powers Act resolution. Speaker 4: War Powers Resolution-and then same week reversed to forty seven fifty two one against. Jordyn: NBC News had the blow by blow: The whole reversal happened after a closed door lunch where, according to multiple sources, Trump called Cassidy a, lunatic. and I want to be precise here, lunatic. Cassidy refused to sit down. Trump publicly called it a "really great meeting. Speaker 3: Sounds great. Truly a great meeting. Jordyn: And while all of that was happening, same day, the White House dropped an eighty seven point six billion dollar supplemental spending request (Axios had the numbers), sixty seven billion of it for the Pentagon alone. The same day senators reversed their war powers votes. That timing is not subtle, not even a little. And that Pentagon number is what I want to dig into, because the last Last public estimate the Pentagon gave was twenty nine billion; Responsible Statecraft flagged that the ask more than doubled with zero explanation. So we went from twenty nine billion to sixty seven billion and nobody showed their work? Nobody showed their work. Cool—constitutional crisis and a math mystery in one week. We've also got a Friendly Fire round, the part of the show where we admit what the other side actually got right. This week it's uncomfortable. Yeah, it is. Strap in. The receipt check starts now. Speaker 3: On camera, to Axios, on the record, Trump said, quote, there are no limits to his executive war powers, and then the Senate said, actually, yeah, hold on. For about eighteen hours — okay, so get this — on Tuesday, June twenty third, the Senate passed a War Powers Act, fifty to forty eight. Speaker 5: Wow! Speaker 3: Four Republicans broke ranks. NBC News called it the first time both chambers agreed to invoke the War Powers Act against a sitting president. Jordyn: That's not nothing, Rachel. Both chambers! That's a constitutional moment. Speaker 3: Was. Past tense. Right, because less than twenty four hours later.... They flipped it. Reversed. Same senators, same week. So here's the thing. Trump called a closed-door lunch. NBC News reported it got loud. Cassidy himself said he "lost his temper." Trump said he raised his voice too. Jordyn: Very normal constitutional process. Speaker 3: Super normal. And after that lunch, the votes just evaporated. A president says he has no limits; Congress passes a resolution saying otherwise; then Congress Speaker 6: changes one. Speaker 3: its mind after a shouting match over sandwiches. So what does a vote actually cost if it doesn't survive a lunch? That's the receipt, and we've got the line by line breakdown, senator by senator, hour by hour, on what exactly changed between Tuesday and Wednesday. Okay, so the scoreboard. According to NBC News, Paul and Cassidy both voted to advance the War Powers Act on March 19th, then voted yes again on June 23rd, then within one business day, Paul flipped to present, Cassidy voted no. Final tally per ABC News, 47-50-1 against. Jordyn: One business day. One." And Cassidy's stated reason going in was devastating. He told Trump directly it was supposed to last four weeks, it's lasted four months. Our original objectives have not been achieved. He said that out loud Speaker 3: Wow. Jordyn: to Trump's face in front of the entire GOP conference. Speaker 3: And Trump reportedly called him a lunatic. Cassidy basically confirmed it. He said, can I imagine the president called me things said on a playground? Yeah, I can imagine that. Speaker 7: That's a yes. Jordyn: Right, so Cassidy yells at Trump, Trump yells back, a senator physically pulls Cassidy back into his seat, wait, someone pulled him down? CNN reported it, and then, hours later, Cassidy gets a private briefing from Vance and Witkoff and posts, I'm paraphrasing, thanks for addressing my concerns. Speaker 7: So the public spine lasted approximately one... Jordyn: One lunch. Speaker 3: And look: a briefing is not a policy change. Saying your concerns were addressed is not the same as the objectives being achieved. Jordyn: Which is exactly what Cassidy himself said they weren't. And speaking of what actually goes on in that room... Speaker 7: (The end) Jordyn: Okay, so picture this: Trump walks into that closed door lunch Wednesday and within minutes it's a full Shouting Match. NBC News reported Cassidy stood up and told Trump directly, you have not told the American people what's going on. Speaker 3: And Trump's response was to call him a lunatic. Jordyn: A lunatic; which Cassidy did not deny when reporters asked him-he said, and I'm paraphrasing, "Can I imagine the President called me 'playground' names? Yeah, I can imagine that. Incredible." So Cassidy argued back, Trump told him to sit down, he refused, another senator physically pulled him back, and then Trump walked out and told reporters it was a "really great meeting." We like everybody really in the room. I don't like a few people, but that's okay. The PR spin and the actual room are two different dimensions. But, Rachel, here's my problem: Cassidy said all the right things, said he wouldn't be bullied, said the American people deserve answers, and then flipped his vote six hours later. After a Situation Room briefing with Vance and Witkoff, that's it. That's the whole transaction. One briefing. So do you feel bad for him or not? I feel bad for what he said before the briefing. The substance was right; four weeks turned into four months; original objective still unmet; that's a real question. Rachel: and deserving a real answer, not a private Situation Room to make one senator go away. And that's the part we're going to sit with, because Cassidy being right and then folding sets up something uncomfortable we need to say out loud. Okay, Friendly Fire time, the segment where we admit when the other side nails it. Jordyn: And this week, no contest. Rachel: Cassidy's floor statement was the most honest thing a Republican senator said all week. War started February twenty eighth, four months in, original objectives unmet. That is just a factual statement. Jordyn: And CNN reported that on May first the White House declared hostilities terminated. Citing the cease fire specifically to reset the sixty day War Powers clock, the war kept going. Rachel: Terminated. Jordyn: While the Navy blockade was still running. Right, so the left has been saying from the jump there's no clear end state here, and honestly they were correct. Rachel: Yeah, I mean, I don't love saying it, but the receipts don't care about your feelings, Rachel. Fair. The Reason piece put it plainly. Congress handed the war making decision back to the President and called it a day. Real Talk, Cassidy's argument was the conservative argument: Congress has war powers for a reason; he had it right before the Situation Room call. He identified the correct problem-four months, no defined objectives, no congressional authorization-that is not a partisan critique. And then he folded, which is a whole other question. Jordyn: Why does the correct position keep losing? Rachel: Yeah! Jordyn: Rachel: And that takes us straight to the constitutional mechanics of why. So while Cassidy was folding, let's zoom out. What do the actual rules say? Jordyn: Article One, Section Eight. Congress declares war, not the president. Congress hasn't done that since World War II. Rachel: Right. So every president since Truman has basically been running wars on a handshake deal with themselves. Jordyn: And Congress passed the War Powers Resolution in nineteen seventy three. he, specifically to stop that, passed it over Nixon's veto; Nixon said it was unconstitutional and dangerous; Congress said no, we're serious. Rachel: So this is not a new fight. What is new is Vance on camera in January calling the whole law (and I'm quoting here) fundamentally a fake and unconstitutional law, tie-breaking vote to kill the Venezuela resolution, that was the preview. The preview. Then the Iran war starts; Trump sends Congress a letter in March that, per the conversation, didn't acknowledge the resolution. Or the Constitution? Just nothing; no acknowledgment, no clock, no framework; just we did it, and the party that ran unlimited government reigning in Washington, they handed him that; which brings me to the question I cannot get past: If not a shooting war, four months in, no declared objective met, when, when does Congress actually push back? That's what November is going to have to answer because they just sent an eighty-seven-point-six billion dollar bill with the blank check. Speaker 3: Hmm. Rachel: Wait, eighty-seven-point-six billion dollars with no authorization on the books? That's the receipt we're checking next. Okay, so the bill just landed; the Hill reported eighty-seven-point-six billion dollars; same day the Senators flipped their votes. Coincidence of timing or the whole point? Jordyn: What a day for democracy! Rachel: Sixty-seven billion dollars of that goes straight to the Pentagon and-wait for it-the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman flagged that the last public Pentagon estimate for this war was- Twenty-nine billion dollars. Jordyn: Hold on, twenty-nine billion dollars to sixty-seven billion dollars with no explanation for how the cost more than doubled in four weeks? Rachel: ZERO PUBLIC ACCOUNTING That's the receipt! Jordyn: Rachel, that's not a rounding error, that's a whole different war! Rachel: Right; and then Responsible Statecraft dug into the line items. You ready? A billion dollars for Penn Station repairs, three hundred million for elevator upgrades in federal buildings, and five hundred million for DC memorial restoration. Jordyn: Tucked into a war funding bill? Rachel: Ben Freeman's exact quote was that Penn Station was "undoubtedly critical to bringing the Iranian regime to its knees." Okay, that's... Jordyn: I genuinely cannot... It's exactly like when a brand buries a four hundred dollar eye cream inside a starter kit so you don't notice what you're actually paying. Rachel: That's the move! Jordyn: And Rachel: Obscure the price with the packaging. Jordyn: the DoD, per taxpayer's for common sense, is already sitting on over one hundred billion dollars in unobligated funds. Rachel: So the question isn't just what this war cost, it's what Cassidy got in exchange for his vote and whether a private Situation Room briefing was worth thirty eight billion dollars in unexplained math. Okay, so Cassidy walks out of a shouting match with the president, called a lunatic, told to sit down, and says on record, I am voting for war powers until I get a briefing. Jordyn: And then he got a briefing from J.D. Vance and Steve Witkoff that afternoon in the situation room. Rachel: That's the whole transaction; he demanded a briefing, he got a briefing, he voted no. Speaker 5: No policy shift, no public accounting, just, I appreciate the quick invitation to the White House to address many of my concerns. That's his post on X. Rachel: So, here's my ROI question, Rachel: what did he actually get? A briefing he could have demanded in a public committee hearing? Speaker 5: And that's what makes this sharper than it looks. Cassidy lost his primary in May. Third place, 24.8% of the vote. Rachel: Wow. Speaker 5: He's literally done. No re-election pressure. No future primary to fear. Rachel: Which should make the fold harder to explain, not easier. Speaker 5: Right? The man with the least to lose electorally still folded same day. Rachel: NBC News described him as the outgoing Louisiana senator. Speaker 5: Yes. Yeah. Rachel: Outgoing. Already gone! Speaker 5: But sure, very thorough briefing. Rachel: Look, maybe Vance showed him something real. We don't know. That's exactly the problem. No public accounting. Jordyn: Which is what he was originally voting to force. Rachel: Exactly! So the briefing resolved the demand for a briefing, and now we leave town for two weeks. Jordyn: Cute. So if Cassidy at least got a meeting, what do you call it when the next senator switched on pure principle he said hadn't changed? Rachel: Paul's is the more baffling case, honestly. He posted on X before the vote, I am quoting here, "My opinion on the debate over war and executive power has not changed," and then voted present. And then voted present, which, by the way, per CBS News, he'd voted yes on every single Iran war powers resolution before this one. Jordyn: So the opinion didn't change, the vote did. That's just no with better PR. Rachel: The whole libertarian brand is executive war power must be checked by Congress, full stop. He built a career on it. And the moment Speaker 3: Hmm? Rachel: Trump asked him nicely-well, yelled at him, then asked-he found a third option that isn't actually a third option. Present doesn't mean undecided-it means I know what I believe I just don't want to be the reason it passed. That's the procedural equivalent of leaving a voicemail so you don't have to actually talk to someone. Look, Paul said it himself: he wanted to give Trump space and leverage to negotiate. But if your principle hasn't changed, you don't get to shelve it because the president asked nicely. Jordyn: That's libertarian in name only territory, Rachel. Rachel: Exactly. And now the Senate's headed into a two week recess with the eighty seven point six billion dollar supplemental just sitting there. Vote. Reverse. Recess. Jordyn: That's the whole pattern; and who pays for it is the actual question. Rachel: Oh! So the Senate reversed the vote and then (deadpan) left town. Two week recess. Just packed up and went home. The eighty-seven-point-six billion dollar supplemental is just sitting there. No timeline, no hearing scheduled. And look, Rachel, the recess isn't a scheduling footnote. That's a choice about what matters. Jordyn: Mm-hmm. Rachel: War is happening. The bill landed the same day as the reversal. Al Jazeera counted Tuesday's vote as the tenth attempt Congress has made to rein in this war. Ten. And the Senate managed to fail within one business day of actually succeeding. That's the pattern in three words: Vote. Reverse. Recess. And every cycle of that the next Congress has less incentive to push back. You watch this week play out, you're a senator in twenty twenty eight, why would you stick your neck out? The institutional damage isn't from one bad vote, it's from proving the vote can be undone with one closed door meeting. Which brings me to the fiscal side: the eighty seven point six billion doesn't have a clock on it either. There's no deadline forcing anyone to act. So what does the next president inherit? A president where Congress funded a war it never authorized and couldn't stop. Any president, that's the question. And the only thing that changes that answer is whether voters make it cost something in November, which is exactly where we're going next. So two concrete questions to carry out the door. Jordyn: That's really what this comes down to, right? Strip the drama away. Rachel: First one's a fiscal question: Any Project Manager who doubled her budget from twenty nine billion to sixty seven billion with no public explanation gets fired on the spot. Congress should demand at minimum an Authorization for Use of Military Force, defined objectives, a timeline. cost accounting before that supplemental ever gets a vote. Jordyn: And the AUMF isn't a new idea. It's just Congress doing the job the Constitution actually gave them. Rachel: Which brings me to the ROI problem: a private Situation Room briefing is not a cost accounting. That's a receipt for a closed-door meeting, not the same thing. Jordyn: Okay, and my question is the midterm one. The senators who voted right on Tuesday and folded on Wednesday. day. That spine existed. We saw it. Rachel: Twenty-four hours. Jordyn: So Republican voters in November get to decide do you reward the fold or do you remember the Tuesday because those are genuinely different answers to different questions about what the party is. Rachel: And the bill is still sitting there, $87.6 billion unaddressed while Congress is on a two-week recess. The receipts don't expire. They really don't. Alright! that's a wrap on this one, and honestly, the Cassidy flip is going to stick with me. Jordyn: Same. A senator who already lost his primary? Nothing left to lose electorally, and he's still folded after one private briefing. Rachel: No policy change, just- A meeting-a Jordyn: really great meeting, Rachel: apparently-and that's the whole episode right there. Not the vote count, not the eighty-seven-point-six billion dollar ask, but the part where a Constitutional check dissolved over lunch. Jordyn: Sniff. If Congress won't hold the line when a senator has literally nothing left to lose, Rachel, when do they? Rachel: That's the question we're leaving you with. Jordyn: If this episode hit different, share it with someone who's been quietly grinding their teeth about the Rachel: about this stuff. Subscribe, drop a rating, it helps more people find us. We'll be back with more receipts. Thanks for listening to Red Flag. Stay skeptical, everybody.