Drill Baby Drill, Meet Putin's Diesel, Oct 20

RachelOkay, so get this, two slogans, one fuel pump: Drill, baby, drill. Energy dominance.

JordynOh, I remember those, loudly on signs.

RachelAnd now the same White House is announcing a deal to import Russian diesel to ease pump prices.

JordynRussian diesel.

RachelWait for it, Jordyn. Dominance, but delivered from Moscow.

JordynDude, I need a minute.

RachelTake two. This is Red Flag. I'm Rachel, and that's Jordyn, who's about to tell me this is totally fine.

JordynI said I need a minute, not a verdict. Honestly, I'm not sure if it's pragmatism or a betrayal.

RachelOh, we disagree badly on the record. Receipts will settle it, maybe. We've got the deal itself, the senators who balked, the price data, and what it means for the people who actually buy diesel.

JordynOkay, so what did the administration actually sign?

RachelLet's find out. Okay, so get this. The paperwork is about four point eight million metric tons of Russian diesel.

JordynMillion with an M.

RachelCNBC's reporting puts that at nearly thirty-six million barrels, and the window runs through mid-April.

JordynHold on, thirty-six million barrels? Is that a lot, or does it just sound like a lot because we're saying it slowly?

RachelFair. I can't tell you how it stacks up against what the country burns because the reporting I have doesn't give that comparison. What I can tell you is the size of the pipe being opened, months of supply, not a one-off cargo.

JordynMonths. Okay.

RachelAnd that's why the window matters. Running through mid-April means this isn't a weekend stopgap. It's a supply arrangement stretching across months, which is why critics are treating it as a real policy choice and not a footnote.

JordynSo the scale cuts both ways, big enough that opponents take it seriously and big enough that supporters can say it must matter.

RachelRight, but size isn't impact. How big the pipe is and whether it moves a price are two separate questions, and we'll get to the second one.

JordynFine, park it. What's the legal piece?

RachelAnd the legal hook matters. The senator's letter, which Alaska's news source covered, demands the administration rescind General License 135.

JordynThat's the permission slip.

RachelThat's the permission slip. Pull it, and the deal doesn't happen.

JordynWow, so it's not a handshake in a hallway. There's an actual document they want shredded.

RachelRight, and Trump isn't backing off it.

JordynOf course he isn't.

RachelShocking, I know. Semafor's headline says it all, "Trump doubling down on the Russian diesel deal as Republicans run from it."

JordynRun from it. That's a strong verb for a party that gets a stopgap through without breaking a sweat.

RachelSemafor goes further. It calls the fuel exports from Moscow part of a trio of economic moves roiling his party.

JordynA trio, so this isn't even the only fire.

RachelNot even the only one. Oh, man, you're gonna want a bigger bucket.

JordynOkay, but roiling how? Grumbling in the cloakroom or names on a letter?

RachelNames on a letter, names you'd never pair with the word defiance.

JordynWait, whose names are on it?

RachelOh, you're gonna love this, and the people running from it are not who you'd expect. Okay, so who actually signed this thing? CNBC names six Republicans: Tillis, Collins, Armstrong, Murkowski, McConnell, and Cornyn.

JordynSix. Hold on. Our own brief says eight or more.

RachelOur brief got ahead of the reporting. CNBC lists six, so six is what I'm saying, and that count is from October 13th and 14th, so it could still grow.

JordynFine, six, but that list is a weird mix.

RachelRight? McConnell and Cornyn are not exactly the wing of the party that hugs Moscow.

JordynCornyn, the guy who's usually the first to vote with the White House.

RachelWait for it, though. CNBC says those six Republicans joined six Democrats, 12 senators across the aisle on a Trump energy move.

JordynWhich almost never happens, and it matters for the Republicans in particular because when senators sign something their own president opposes, it tells you the objection isn't just a talking point from the other team.

RachelSo is this a Republican revolt or a Senate-wide eye roll?

JordynPBS NewsHour framed it as a bipartisan criticism from a frustrated Congress. Both parties, it says, are calling the deal fuel for Russia's war against Ukraine.

RachelOkay, that one I get, buying from the country you're helping Ukraine fight.

JordynAnd PBS says the critics also argue it violates existing US laws and that it pulls the US closer to Russia.

RachelOh, man, three charges: war funding, law breaking, and cozying up.

JordynAnd none of them are about the pump price, which is supposedly the whole point.

RachelHuh. So the people who signed had a lot to say, and they didn't whisper it.

JordynThey put it in writing. So what exactly is in that letter?

RachelOkay, so the letter makes three arguments. Argument one is the money. Alaska's news source covering Murkowski and the bipartisan group lays out that the senators say this deal would fund Russia's war.

JordynWhich we expected.

RachelSure, but they go wider. They say it would also bankroll Russia's cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea.

JordynDude. So the worry is the fix could end up paying people who work with the very countries on that list.

RachelThat's the senator's argument, not mine. I'll stay in my lane.

JordynFine. Argument two.

RachelThis is where it gets good. The letter says the deal would give, and I'm quoting the phrase here, "Limited to no relief, negligible effect on fuel prices."

JordynHold on. Republicans are writing that about their own president's price fix?

RachelIn writing. Their own letter says the thing doesn't work, and that's a pretty pointed thing to put your signature under when the idea belongs to the head of your own party.

JordynOkay, but they're not pretending prices are fine, right? That'd be a different fight?

RachelRight, and that's the honest part. The letter acknowledges the Iran war disruptions behind high prices. They're not denying the pain at the pump.

JordynSo they agree on the problem, they just think the patch is Putin-shaped and also useless.

RachelYep, which brings us to the third piece, and it's my favorite.

JordynWait for it.

RachelAt a rally in Wasilla, Alaska, reported October 14th, Trump told the crowd that fuel prices are already falling.

JordynAlready falling before the diesel even lands?

RachelSame week his own party senators put in writing that the deal barely touches prices.

JordynSeriously? So either the senators are wrong or the rally line is doing a lot of work, and a rally line is a claim, not a measurement.

RachelOr the prices are falling for some other reason entirely, which is exactly the kind of thing you check with data instead of applause.

JordynAnd notice what the rally line is too. It's a claim about direction. It doesn't tell us why.

RachelRight, and that's the gap. The senators say the deal won't help, the president says prices are falling, and neither of those is the same as proving cause.

JordynRachel, you said you'd audit that. Does it move anything at all?

RachelOkay, so I promised an audit. Here's my first line item. CNBC reported that oil analysts doubt this deal will meaningfully lower prices.

JordynWait, the thing sold as the fix might not fix?

RachelThat's what CNBC says the analysts think. The selling point is the part they're doubting.

JordynOkay, so it's a coupon for a store that's already out of stock.

RachelHold the jokes. I have numbers. The EIA publishes a weekly national diesel average, and SMC3 republishes it.

JordynOkay, hit me.

RachelSeptember 22nd, $6.53. Precisely, $6.529. That's the record high.

JordynOof.

RachelSeptember 29th, $6.382. Then October 6th, $6.199.

JordynFalling.

RachelFalling. And the latest, the survey from October 12th, is $6.179.

JordynSo hold on. So Trump's right? Prices are dropping?

RachelThey're dropping modestly, about 35 cents off the peak over three weeks.

JordynWhich is a lot less than a victory lap.

RachelRight, and four data points over three weeks is thin. It could be a trend or a blip, and I'm not calling it, but look at what the sources don't show. Nothing there says the deal caused that decline.

JordynBecause the diesel hasn't even arrived yet, has it?

RachelI can't tell you that. What I can tell you is what the deal covers and when it runs, and none of the sources tie that to this drop.

JordynSo you're not gonna say it worked?

RachelAnd I'm not gonna say it didn't. The evidence doesn't say either, and I'm not filling that gap with a guess.

JordynRachel, an auditor who won't round up. Refreshing.

RachelI keep the audit to what the sources show. Analysts doubt it, the weekly line is sliding, and nobody's connected the two, and that's a real finding on its own. The deal's selling point is lower prices. The people who watch oil for a living doubt it, and the one hard data series we have can't tell us who deserves credit.

JordynFine, but here's what's bugging me. Even at the lower number, it's still over $6 a gallon, and that's what people actually see on the sign.

RachelOh, you're gonna love this part. That number's the national average, and it hides some wild spreads.

JordynFalling? Sure, but it's still over six bucks. Why?

RachelOkay, so nobody fills up at national average. SMC3 republishes the EIA regional numbers, and they're wild.

JordynWild how?

RachelThe Midwest averages about $6.26. California, about $8.09.

JordynEight? Oh, man. California's paying a surcharge for the view.

RachelThe sources I have don't explain why California runs so far above the Midwest, so I'm not going to guess. But the Midwest is where the harvest happens, so that $6.26 is not a rounding error for a farmer.

JordynHold on. Why is it high at all? Everybody seems to have a different story.

RachelThey do. One story points to the Iran war. The White House tells it differently. Its release on the October 5th executive order blames the Russia-Ukraine war and global refining shortages.

JordynPlot twist, the same Russia the deal buys from is the villain in the White House's own story.

RachelI noticed that too. Two framings, and I'm not gonna crown one because the sources don't settle it.

JordynSo the honest answer to why it's above six is that we've got competing stories and no single settled cause.

RachelRight, and I'd rather say that than pretend a tidy answer exists.

JordynAnd for the person at the pump, the cause is almost beside the point. The sign says what it says.

RachelFair, which is why the regional spread matters more than the national average. A farmer in the Midwest and a driver in California are living in two very different price realities.

JordynOkay, I wanna hear from someone who isn't holding a press release.

RachelNow let's meet the people actually filling the tank. Okay, so the pump numbers are one thing. Now somebody who actually drives a truck for a living. AgriNews reported on October 17th that the head of OOIDA, the owner-operator truckers group, estimates every extra dollar per gallon costs an independent trucker about $400 more a week.

Jordyn400 a week.

RachelAnd that's per dollar. AgriNews says AAA had diesel at $6.30 on October 7th.

JordynOh, man. And that's not a tiny bump from last year, right?

RachelUp more than 70% year over year, per the same report. So take that 400 a week figure and run it against a price spike that size.

JordynI'm not doing that math on a Tuesday.

RachelFair. Leave it at this. The group's estimate is per dollar, and the jump is a lot of dollars.

JordynOkay, but the White House has an answer. The order lets dyed diesel run on highways, and it defers the 24.4 cent federal diesel tax through year-end.

RachelRight, the October 5th order. And the White House release pitches it as relief for truckers and farmers. It says the savings come to about $60 on a 250-gallon fill.

JordynSounds helpful. What do the farmers say?

RachelThe North Dakota Farmers Union president told AgriNews it doesn't come close to offsetting diesel prices that are more than $2 above last year.

JordynDoesn't come close. That's not a lukewarm review.

RachelAnd harvest is when a farm burns the most fuel, so the timing stings. Nobody gets to postpone harvest and wait for a better price. Both can be true, though. 60 bucks is real money. It's also a bandage on a very large cut, real in dollars, small in proportion. And the trucker isn't paying that bill and eating it quietly. Somebody downstream pays, which is my department, Rachel. I'll tell you where I'm headed. Those costs don't vanish. They just move. Jordyn, where does that land at the checkout line?

JordynOkay, so those trucker and farmer numbers from a minute ago are sitting in my head like a bad ingredient list, and the obvious next question is my lane, what happens to the grocery bill?

RachelGo on. Do we have a number?

JordynNope. None of the sources we pulled measure a grocery price effect, not one. So anything I say here is me reasoning out loud, not a finding.

RachelNoted for the record. Reason away.

JordynThink of it like a serum. The label on the front promises glowing skin, but the ingredient list tells you what you're actually buying. Groceries work the same way. The price tag is the front of the bottle, and freight and farm costs are in the ingredients.

RachelHuh.

JordynSo the household question is simple. If it costs more to run the combine and more to haul the stuff to the store, does that cost ever reach the shelf? My gut says it could, but a gut is not a statistic.

RachelRight, because stores can eat costs or not.

JordynExactly. I don't know which one happens, and nobody in our stack of sources says, so I'm raising it as a question, not quoting it as a fact.

RachelFair, and honestly, that's more than most people do with a gut feeling.

JordynLow bar, but I'll take it. And for anyone staring at a receipt this week, the honest move is to watch your own prices rather than trust anybody's guess, mine included.

RachelOkay, so we've got a deal that may not move prices much and a bill we can't fully trace. So is this smart triage or a betrayal?

JordynOh, now we're finally at the part where we split, and I'm ready.

RachelOkay, you first. Defend it. I wanna hear the pragmatism pitch out loud.

JordynFine. A family is staring at a fuel bill that jumped, and the fuel exists somewhere. Buying it where it's available is defensible. I don't need a purity test at the pump.

RachelHmm. Sounds reasonable so far. Nobody budgets a week of diesel around a bumper sticker.

JordynBut there's a condition. It has to actually work, and everything we've covered says the people who watch oil for a living doubt it does.

RachelSo your defense has a trapdoor.

JordynIt's a very honest trapdoor. Pragmatism that doesn't deliver is just a purchase order.

RachelSee, that's where I land harder than you. Even if it worked, this is a betrayal.

JordynOh, here we go.

RachelThis party sold energy dominance. Drill, baby, drill. Pick a bumper sticker. Now the fix for a price spike is a favor from Putin?

JordynSure, but the spike is real, and the people paying for it aren't reading energy policy white papers.

RachelAnd the senators who signed that letter aren't Democratic activists. McConnell and Cornyn are not exactly Twitter hotheads. When your own side calls it a gift to an adversary, that's not a messaging problem.

JordynThey also said it gives limited relief. That actually helps my side. If it's useless, it's a bad trade. If it worked, it's a defensible one.

RachelNo, no, no, a defensible one for who? You don't get to promise independence and then shrug when the bill comes due.

JordynWow. Okay.

RachelBetrayal. I'm staying there.

JordynAnd I'm staying at pragmatism with a failing grade attached. Defensible idea, weak evidence.

RachelThat's the most Jordyn sentence ever. Fine. We've both planted flags.

JordynSo who wins?

RachelNeither of us gets to decide. The evidence does. So time to grade the receipt. Okay, friendly fire time, and this one stings a little because the credit goes across the aisle. Wait for it. CNBC's reporting has six Democrats signing right alongside the six Republicans. Same letter, same objection.

JordynHuh, Washington agreeing on something.

RachelMark your calendar, folks. So yes, Democrats get a point for being right about this one. I'll say it once quietly, and then go lie down.

JordynNoted. Now the grade. Go ahead.

Rachel"Drill, baby, drill," and energy dominance measured against a Russian diesel fix. D+. The slogan promised we'd never need Moscow's barrels, and the patch is Moscow's barrels. I'm not grading the goal. I'm grading the distance between the promise and the patch.

JordynOoh, I'm a little kinder. C minus.

RachelC minus?

JordynThe goal, cheaper diesel, is a fair goal, and a family staring at a fuel bill isn't wrong to want it, but the analysts CNBC cites doubt it meaningfully lowers prices, so the grade can't climb.

RachelOkay, what changes your mind?

JordynPrices clearly falling because of the deal, not around it, not alongside it, because of it, with someone showing the link, and it works the other way too. If prices keep sliding with no deal in the picture, that tells us the deal wasn't the lever.

RachelMine's the same plus one thing. The promise has to stop needing a Russian footnote. Otherwise, I'm grading a slogan, not a policy.

JordynThat's a big ask for a slogan, honestly.

RachelUntil then, the receipt stands. That's the receipt. Let's sign off. Okay, final verdicts, one line each. Mine is you can't sell independence for years and then buy the backup tank from Moscow.

JordynMine's kinder. It's a defensible emergency move that the party never earned the right to make quietly, and if it doesn't work, it's neither defensible nor quiet.

RachelQuietly, right. Loudly is the only way a promise like that should ever be made.

JordynWhich is why the senators noticed.

RachelThey did. Now the ask. Send this episode to one friend who's been biting their tongue at Thanksgiving.

JordynThe one whose jaw is already sore from October?

RachelExactly. Subscribe and leave a rating so more politically homeless voters can find us.

JordynWe're easy to find. Just follow the trail of people who clap at neither party.

RachelBring snacks to the table, pass the gravy, skip the diesel, and maybe the politics.