The Morning-After Receipt Check, Nov 3

RachelCold open: Trump promised voters lower prices. And I'm paraphrasing here because I don't want to invent a quote. Prices were going to come down fast.

JordynOkay.

RachelAnd here we are, polls closing tonight, checking the receipt.

JordynOh, man, the receipt is long.

RachelI'm Rachel, this is Jordyn, and this is Red Flag, where we measure the promise against what actually showed up.

JordynHold on. The AP is already calling tonight a referendum on Trump's second term.

RachelRight. The AP reported Tuesday that Americans are angry over high prices and an unpopular war with Iran, and they're deciding whether to drastically shift power in Washington.

JordynDrastically. Not a gentle nudge.

RachelNope. And last week we did the whole one percent ad episode, candidates running ads and Trump's name barely in them.

JordynWhich sounded like either genius or panic, depending on who you asked.

RachelAnd tonight we find out which one the voters bought, or at least we start to. Wait for it, because that's the bet. Hide the name, dodge the bill.

JordynDid the bet pay off or did voters read the fine print anyway?

RachelThat's tonight's question. But first, a quick rewind to the number that started this. Okay, so get this. The New York Times went through AdImpact data on Republican congressional TV ads, September ninth to October seventeenth. Less than one dollar out of every one hundred mentioned Trump.

JordynOne dollar out of a hundred?

RachelLess than that. Fast Company pulled the number into a piece called Even Republicans Don't Want to Touch Trump Right Now.

JordynOkay, but is that just what ads look like? Everybody dodges the president a little in a midterm.

RachelThen check the Democrats. Same window, about twenty dollars of every one hundred mentioned him.

JordynSo one side is running against the guy and the other side is acting like he's a roommate who owes rent.

RachelExactly. Twenty versus less than one.

JordynHold on. Was it always like this? Because I remember Republicans being pretty cozy with him earlier.

RachelYou remember right. Fast Company also cites Wesleyan Media Project data. Through mid-June, seventy percent of GOP ads mentioned him.

JordynSeventy, then one?

RachelWait for it, because the drop comes after Labor Day. Mentions fall off a cliff right when the fall campaign gets serious.

JordynOh, man, so that's not a slow drift. That's somebody flipping a switch the minute the voters start paying attention.

RachelWhich is the whole bet from last week. If you scrub the name, maybe voters forget the rest.

JordynMaybe, but a name is just a name. The prices and the war don't go anywhere.

RachelAnd that's the part voters can check for themselves. They don't need an ad to tell them what a tank of gas costs.

JordynRight. The receipt doesn't need a name printed on it to land.

RachelFair, though not every Republican scrubbed the same amount, right?

JordynRight. A national average hides a lot. So who was doing the hiding and how clean is that sort?

RachelOkay, so CNN ran a piece back on September twenty-second with the headline that basically says the GOP stampede away from Trump is growing, even in pretty red districts.

JordynStampede. Love that. Name names.

RachelByron Donalds scrubbed Trump references from his campaign site. Ashley Hinson and Mike Rogers broke with him on the Iran war.

JordynWait, Donalds? The guy with the endorsement banner?

RachelSame guy. And then two House Republicans, Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, voted to limit his war powers.

JordynOh, that one's different. That's a vote, not a website edit.

RachelRight. So pick one, Jordyn. Which move feels principled?

JordynThe war powers votes. Easy. You can't undo a roll call. Nunn and Miller-Meeks put their names on a record, and that's the part I care about as someone who wants the party to still have room for dissent.

RachelHmm. I'd say Hinson and Rogers, too, honestly. Breaking with him on Iran out loud while voters are mad about the war?

JordynOut loud, sure. But is it conviction when the mad voters are the ones you need?

RachelOkay, fair. And that's why the website thing makes me crazy.

JordynDonalds.

RachelDonalds. Deleting a banner is the cheapest edit in politics. That's polling with a mouse click. Nobody has to explain a vote. They just hope you don't scroll.

JordynI'll give him this. It's honest cowardice. Very low effort.

RachelAt least a roll call voter has to explain themselves to somebody. A website edit just quietly disappears.

JordynRight. One leaves a record and the other is just a missing banner.

RachelPut it on a mug. But hang on, because stacking those names into two neat piles is too tidy.

JordynOh, no. Here comes the asterisk.

RachelYep. The sort gets messier than a simple list of who ran from Trump. Okay, so here's what complicates the tidy sort. The CNN piece doesn't stop at swing seats. It also names candidates in states Trump won anywhere from eleven to thirty-two points.

JordynThirty-two? Hold on. That's not a district where you need to run from anybody.

RachelRight? Thirty-two points is a state where a houseplant with a red hat wins.

JordynSo why distance?

RachelThat's what I want to know. The story's headline even says it's happening in pretty red districts.

JordynWhich kills my easy theory. I figured the runners were scared of purple turf.

RachelSame. Turns out fear isn't only a swing seat thing.

JordynMm. Or they know something the map doesn't show.

RachelOr it's just habit now, where nobody wants to be the one candidate with the name on the ad.

JordynWhich is a strange kind of safety, hiding in a place where you were already going to win.

RachelAnd meanwhile, get this, the man himself is not being shy. Monday, at the Reflecting Pool in Washington, Trump told supporters that if they vote, quote, "We win in a landslide." CBS News had that in its final pitches live updates. So the loudest voice in the party is yelling his own name, and the ads are whispering it.

JordynGreat. A duet where one singer left the stage.

RachelPlot twist, the whisper is the one that's on TV.

JordynOkay, but that's the gamble, right? His crowd hears the megaphone, everybody else hears the silence.

RachelExactly. Which brings up the thing I keep circling. Before we grade the strategy, what did the forecasts expect tonight?

JordynYeah. We can't judge the bet without the odds.

RachelOkay, so get this. As of Monday, Decision Desk HQ, NewsNation's partner, forecast Democrats taking the House 241 to 194.

JordynWhoa, that's not a squeaker.

RachelAnd Republicans walked in with 218 to 214. Four seats of cushion. That's a couch cushion, not a majority.

JordynFour seats? You lose a few of those ad-free Republicans and you're sitting on the floor.

RachelWait, though, forecast, not result. Nobody has voted a single ballot into that number yet.

JordynRight, and I'm not gonna pretend otherwise. Polls have been wrong before.

RachelWhich is why I keep saying forecast. A forecast is a weather report, and nobody gets wet from it.

JordynUntil it rains, then everybody's very interested in who predicted what.

RachelNPR's Domenico Montanaro wrote on Sunday that polls show Democrats with an advantage, but he flagged limitations in them.

JordynLimitations like what?

RachelThe piece doesn't spell those out in what I've got, so I'm not going to invent them. What it does say is results may take a while to roll in.

JordynUgh, so tonight might be a lot of refreshing and no answers.

RachelProbably, which is annoying for a show that wants to grade the strategy.

JordynThen we grade it against the scoreboard we do have. Hide the name, lose anyway. That's a story.

RachelOr hide the name, squeak by, and everyone takes a victory lap.

JordynMm. Either way, a number in Washington isn't what's making somebody check their phone at the pump.

RachelOkay, but what are voters actually mad about? Start with the grocery bill. Okay, so NBC News has a poll out, and it reads like a receipt nobody wants to look at. Trump sits at 40% approve, 60% disapprove.

JordynOuch.

RachelAnd that's the warm-up. About three in four voters are dissatisfied with the economy.

JordynThree in four? That's not a mood, that's a consensus.

RachelWait for it. 70% say the country is on the wrong track.

Jordyn70. So the ad people spent all fall whispering, and the audience was already shouting.

RachelThat last one is the number I'd put on a poster. 70% say wrong track, and that's before anybody mentions a name.

JordynNames are optional. Wrong track is a feeling you can't scrub off a website.

RachelRight? Jordyn, think about it like a purchase. A candidate spends millions to take Trump's name off the ad. Fine, but the grocery bill didn't get an edit.

JordynMm.

RachelSo what did the ad buy? If the name vanishes and the bill stays exactly the same, that's the return on investment. That's an expensive eraser.

JordynOkay, but I'll defend the consultants for one second. Hiding the name might still work if voters don't connect the person on the screen to the price at the register.

RachelMight, except NBC says this poll was collected November 3, the day itself, and it's a pre-election snapshot. It can't tell us who won, it tells us what people carried into the booth.

JordynAnd what they carried was dissatisfaction.

RachelExactly. Nobody walks into a voting booth and forgets what eggs cost.

JordynUnless the eggs are in the ad, then they're very quiet eggs.

RachelQuiet eggs. Okay, but prices are one receipt. The war is the other one, Jordan.

JordynAnd that's where it got personal, because the base itself cracked on it.

RachelOh, you're gonna wanna hear how. Okay, so get this. The Hill reported on a Politico poll, and it found support for the Iran war among Trump's 2024 voters fell 13 points. The reason? Costs.

Jordyn13? Among his own people?

RachelHis own people. Not the Democrats, not the folks who never liked him.

JordynWait, costs of what exactly? Because the source says costs, and I wanna be careful about what that means.

RachelFair. The poll's own breakdown is the next part. 57% of MAGA voters say the war raised gas prices. More than half.

JordynOh, man.

RachelAnd only 50% back continuing the war if it raised US costs. Half. That's a coin flip in a red hat.

JordynOkay, that one's mine now. I'm stealing it.

RachelSteal away.

JordynBut think about what that does to the hide the name strategy. A candidate scrubs Trump off the website, great. The voter still pulls up to the pump.

RachelMm-hmm.

JordynThe ads dodged the name. They didn't dodge the delivery. You can't edit out a war a voter is paying for, and you can't airbrush a price tag they see every time they fill up.

RachelRight. And nobody at that pump is thinking, "Huh, this candidate's mailer doesn't mention the president, so I'll forgive the gas." Done. Brilliant campaign. Very subtle. The bill showed up anyway. And let's keep it to what the poll gave us. Costs showed up in two answers: whether the war raised gas prices, and whether people would keep backing it if it raised US costs.

JordynSo I'm not telling you what they feel. The voters are saying the bill is the thing, and only half are still on board once it lands on them.

RachelWhich for a campaign is brutal, because you can't fact check a gas pump.

JordynNo spin cycle for that. You either felt it or you didn't.

RachelPlot twist, though, say all of that is true and Republicans still get hammered tonight. Does that mean MAGA is done?

JordynOh, you're not gonna like my answer.

RachelI never do. Go ahead.

JordynBecause I think a loss tells you less than you want it to.

RachelWait, really? We disagree on that one big time. Okay, the AP's Steve Peoples framed tonight a certain way. He wrote that the end of these midterms is the beginning of a high-stakes fight over the country's political future in the twilight of the Trump era.

JordynTwilight? Dramatic. Very vampire novel.

RachelSure, but notice what it assumes, the Trump era is already winding down, and the fight is over what comes after.

JordynWhich is exactly where we split.

RachelWe do. Jordyn, I think a loss tonight is the end of the brand. Not a bad month, the brand. If you have to hide the name to survive, the name is the problem.

JordynOh, come on. The name is the problem only if the delivery was fine and voters still said no. I think delivery is the failure, prices, a war nobody asked for. Fix that, and the label sells again.

RachelFix it how? You can't rebrand a gas pump.

JordynNo, but you can change who's talking about it and what they promise next.

RachelThat's a new coat of paint on the same house.

JordynThat people already lived in for two years and didn't hate until the bills showed up. That's my whole point. The house isn't condemned, the contractor was bad.

RachelHold on. If the contractor is the guy whose name is on the sign, you can't fire the contractor and keep the sign.

JordynRight? That's why I say the party needs a different movement, not a different slogan, something with its own spine that isn't borrowing one man's approval rating.

RachelAnd I say the party has never once done that voluntarily. They rebrand every time. They're allergic to starting over.

JordynSo you're predicting a new logo?

RachelA new logo and a very confident press release.

JordynAnd the sad part is that might even work for a cycle. A confident press release can carry you a long way.

RachelIt carries you right up until the next gas receipt, then you're back here arguing with me.

JordynFine. We both might be wrong, and tonight might not settle it anyway.

RachelWhich is why I want to ask something about the people who actually decide this, the ones who voted Trump in 2020 and then stayed home or switched.

JordynOh, that's the real jury. Go ahead.

RachelOkay, I'll take this one directly. If you voted Trump in 2024 and then stayed home or switched, I wanna talk to you for a second.

JordynGo ahead. I'll be the supportive nodding.

RachelThe NBC News poll has a number that should make you feel less alone. 64% of voters say he's fallen short of their expectations.

Jordyn64, that's not just the opposition.

RachelRight. It includes about a third of Trump's own voters.

JordynA third of his own people.

RachelAnd NBC says his support has dropped among young voters and Latino voters. So if you felt a little weird about your 2024 ballot, you've got some company in some very specific places.

JordynWait, that matters. Those are the groups everybody said he was gaining.

RachelExactly. So here's what I'd say to that voter. You're not a traitor. You didn't betray anybody.

JordynNobody's coming for your hat.

RachelRight. You were promised something, you looked at what showed up, and you noticed the gap. That's paying attention. That's literally how a receipt works.

JordynAnd a shrug at the polls can be a message too.

RachelSure. You can still like the guy's style or his judgment on some things. You just don't owe him a blank check for the grocery bill.

JordynOkay, that's fair. And honestly, nobody should have to defend a promise they never saw delivered.

RachelThank you. And for the record, that goes for the person still voting Republican tonight too. Holding the promise up to the receipt isn't a party move.

JordynNo, it's a grown-up move. You can do it from inside the tent.

RachelOkay, so we've got a lot of receipts on the table. Time to hand out the grade. And Jordyn, you also promised me one thing the left got right.

JordynI did. It stings a little. Let's do it.

RachelOkay, grades. Hide the name strategy. I'm giving it a C minus, and that's before a single result comes in.

JordynHarsh. Why the minus?

RachelBecause it asks voters to forget the thing they're paying for every week. That's a lot of forgetting.

JordynMine's a straight incomplete. Honestly, the jury's still out there counting.

RachelDodge.

JordynIt's a principled dodge. Polls close tonight, and I'm not grading a test that's still being taken.

RachelOkay, but grade it against the pledge then. Prices were supposed to come down fast, and voters walk in still feeling the bill. Hiding the name doesn't change the answer to that pledge.

JordynSure. The pledge gets a failing mark on my sheet too. What I can't grade yet is whether the ad strategy cost anyone a seat. Those are two different report cards.

RachelFine, fair. Now, friendly fire. You go first.

JordynOkay. The Democrats did the opposite. The New York Times review of AdImpact data, as Fast Company laid it out, had about $20 of every hundred in their ads mentioning Trump.

RachelAnd the polls we went through earlier, the approval number and the wrong track number were pretty sour on him.

JordynRight. So putting his name in their ads fits that mood. Annoyingly sensible. I'm not saying the polls were all about him, just that the ad share lines up with them.

RachelYou hate saying that, don't you?

JordynPhysically painful, and I'd like to see if it holds up once the votes come in.

RachelSo that's the thing to watch as results arrive. Which ad budget was actually reading the room?

JordynFingers crossed for someone's math.

RachelLast thing before we let you go. Okay, so here's what's still rattling around in my head. If a party hides its leader and still gets judged on what it delivered, what exactly was the pitch?

JordynOoh.

RachelSeriously, "Vote for us, we're not telling you who we work for"? When you say it out loud, it's thin. My one-liner, the pitch was a hope that voters would forget the last two years.

JordynMine's meaner. The pitch was that you'd blame somebody else for the bill, and the name was the thing they couldn't say.

RachelRachel, that's a little harsh.

JordynIs it wrong, though?

RachelAnnoyingly, I can't say it is, but I still say it's fixable. Different messenger, different pitch, same voters.

JordynAnd I still say a movement that can't say its own name in an ad has a bigger problem than the messenger.

RachelWe're not settling that tonight.

JordynNope. The results will do the arguing for us. Anyway, one last bit of housekeeping before we go.

RachelOh, the housekeeping.

JordynDo you have a Thanksgiving person, someone who's been chewing on their tongue since the first bad grocery receipt?

RachelOh, I have three. One of them nods at the turkey so hard he's basically a bobblehead.

JordynSo send them this episode. One friend, not the whole group chat.

RachelAnd hit Subscribe. Leave a rating too. It takes 10 seconds, less time than carving.

JordynIt helps other politically homeless voters find us, folks who like the promise, hate the invoice, and have no idea where to sit.

RachelPlenty of seats here, mostly folding chairs, and nobody's asking you to clap for anything you don't believe in.

JordynOkay, last one. If you're a frustrated voter tonight, what do you do with that?

RachelSame thing you do with any bad receipt, Jordyn. Keep it, read it, and bring it with you next time, and go vote if you haven't. Thanks for listening to Red Flag.