'I Didn't Promise Anything': The Iran War Receipt, Jun 9

Rachel: BGHOST1hmm. Jordyn: Welcome back to Red Flag. I'm Rachel. Speaker 3: And I'm Jordyn. And okay, real talk. This episode has receipts. Jordyn: So many receipts. Speaker 3: Like a whole file cabinet's worth. Jordyn: So here's what we're working with today. On Meet the Press Sunday, Trump looked into the camera and said, I'm quoting here, I didn't promise anything about no new wars. Speaker 3: The same guy who ran on no new wars for two years straight. Jordyn: The very same. So here's the thing. We've got his Pennsylvania rally pledge on one side, and that quote on the other. The cold open basically runs itself. Right. And then we dig into the actual numbers. The Pentagon's own estimate? At least $29 billion into Operation Epic Fury so far. According to Time, Speaker 3: Wow. Jordyn: first six days alone cost $11.3 billion. 11.3! Speaker 3: In six days? Jordyn: And now there's a $200 billion supplemental request floating around Congress, with GOP fiscal hawks like Chip Roy and Thomas Massie getting zero straight answers on where the money goes. Speaker 3: No plan, no strategy, just a number with a lot of zeros. Jordyn: And then, wait for it, a reporter asked Trump directly if Americans' financial situations were motivating him to make a deal. Speaker 3: Oh no, what did he say? Jordyn: Not even a little. His words on the White House lawn. Speaker 3: So someone has to think about it. Spoiler, that's us today. Jordyn: Gas, Moody's household numbers, the JCPOA gap, a friendly fire segment you won't see coming. It's all here. Speaker 3: Let's get into it. Cold open first. Roll the tape. Jordyn: Okay, cold open: two quotes, same guy-hit it. twenty twenty four campaign rally in Pennsylvania-Trump to supporters: "I will not send you to fight and die in stupid foreign wars that never end." june seventh twenty twenty six, NBC's Meet the Press-same man: "First of all, I didn't guarantee no war. So when you say I promised, I didn't promise anything. Same guy. Same guy. Speaker 4: No edits, no spin from us—that's the receipt—right there. Jordyn: And, Speaker 5: look, Jordyn: the war started February twenty-eighth; it's now day one hundred. According to NPR, Trump told Meet the Press it's not an endless war, because, quote, "we've been doing this for three months. Speaker 4: Oh, so three months resets the promise. Jordyn: Apparently. Speaker 4: And Time reported this week the Pentagon puts the cost at least $29 billion so far. When a reporter asked if Americans' financial pain was motivating him to end it faster, Trump said, not even a little bit. Speaker 3: Uh, he said that out loud on the South Lawn. Out loud. On camera. Speaker 4: So here's the thing, Rachel. If the no new wars promise just evaporated, what does that tell us about every other promise attached to this war? That's exactly the question we're spending this episode on, and the numbers behind it are going to make that $29 billion feel like a down payment. A down payment. So Operation Epic Fury launched February 28. Here's what the receipt looks like at day 100. NBC News reported the Pentagon told Congress the first six days alone cost $11.3 billion. That's $1.88 billion a day. Speaker 3: Hold on, six days? Speaker 4: Six days and Taxpayers for Common Sense confirmed that figure came out of a classified briefing. Speaker 3: Wow. Speaker 4: Here's the supply chain math on that. Iran was firing drones that cost maybe $50,000 each. We were intercepting them with Patriot missiles at $4 million a pop. Speaker 3: That's not a great margin. Speaker 4: I would have gotten fired for that procurement decision at Walmart. That's a catastrophic unit economics problem. Speaker 3: Right, right. And now the running tab per NBC News is at least $25 billion. Jordyn: Hormuz is still disrupted, gas prices hit $4.39 a gallon at the peak, according to USNI News, and Trump called the whole thing a military exercise. A military exercise. His quote on Meet the Press, per Fortune, I call it a military exercise because people would rather have it called that. So here's the thing. What kind of exercise runs up $25 billion and closes off 20% of the world's oil supply? The kind with a really aggressive budget. And Time reported that when asked about Americans' financial pain, Trump said not even a little bit. That's the full quote. Which brings us to the bill, because CNN reported the White House floated a supplemental funding request of more than $200 billion to Congress, and that's where it gets messy. The party of fiscal responsibility is about to find out what $200 billion actually means. Speaker 4: actually means on a vote. Now flip that on its head. The ask isn't just $25 billion. CNN reported the Pentagon floated a supplemental funding request of more than $200 billion to Congress Speaker 3: Wow. Speaker 4: for a conflict Trump called a military exercise. Speaker 3: Right. The world's most expensive drill. Speaker 4: And here's where the ROI question gets genuinely uncomfortable. According to CNN, Chip Roy, a fiscal hawk who's watched Pentagon spending for years, told them, quote, they got a whole lot more briefing and explaining to do on how we're going to pay for it and what's the mission here. Speaker 3: And Massie? Massie went further. He told CNN, is this the first $200 billion? Does this turn into a trillion? Speaker 4: Nobody answered him. Speaker 3: Hmm. Speaker 4: Zero. Speaker 3: So, here's the thing, Rachel. I get that national security costs money. I do. But this is exactly like a skincare brand selling you a $300 serum, then mailing a separate invoice for the moisturizer. Speaker 4: The serum was the one big beautiful bill, by the way. Congress already passed a $150 billion defense add-on in that package. Speaker 3: And now they need $200 billion on top of that? Speaker 4: The math does not close. And CNN also reported the Navy's top officer, Admiral Daryl Speaker 5: Caudle, Rachel: told the House Armed Services Committee his 2026 budget, quote, didn't bake in Operation Epic Fury, training canceled, maintenance delayed, months ahead of schedule, Jordyn: wait, before fiscal year end? Rachel: months before, which brings us to the part nobody wants to say out loud. Jordyn: Nobody authorized this spending, and that's not just a fiscal problem, that's a constitutional one. Rachel: Exactly. And that's where we're going next. Jordyn: So the same administration that can't explain the $200 billion also says Congress doesn't get a vote. That's the constitutional question. And they've got a creative answer. Pete Hegseth told senators the 60-day clock, quote, pauses or stops during a ceasefire. That's the argument. A ceasefire. Speaker 3: where the U.S. and Iran traded strikes the morning of the War Powers vote. Rachel: Right, right. CNN reported the administration never sought congressional approval for Operation Epic Fury at all, not once. Speaker 3: And here's the thing about that ceasefire argument. Even a Columbia Law professor who served at the Pentagon said the facts make it hard to defend because American forces are still enforcing a blockade militarily. Rachel: So the clock reset while the Navy is still in the Gulf. Speaker 3: This is where I land: If you spent eight years saying Obama overreached on Libya, if Article I is supposed to mean something, the silence right now is the receipt. Speaker 4: I hear you. My honest take? The ceasefire argument is thin, but Congress has always let presidents stretch this. Obama did Kosovo, Clinton too. Speaker 3: Sure, but those presidents at least tried to build a case on the Hill. CNN noted Trump made no public effort to build support in Congress. Zero. Speaker 4: And the House vote was two fifteen to two oh eight-four Republicans crossed-Massie, Fitzpatrick, Barrett, Davidson. Four out of two hundred and twenty something, which is either principled or a very small tent. And next we need to talk about who those four are, because the pattern is interesting. So those four House Republicans who crossed over-Massie, Fitzpatrick, Barrett, Davidson-CNN also reported Murkowski in the Senate said she won't fund more war spending until the White House produces an actual plan. Speaker 6: Hawley and Rick Scott won details before they commit. That's not the usual small government purist crew. That's Hawley. Speaker 4: Right, so on paper this looks like a principled stand, but here's my ROI question. Rachel: What's the actual track record? Announced skepticism versus a real no vote are two very different things. Speaker 6: So here's a thing. Fitzpatrick is in a tough Pennsylvania district. Barrett just won a swing seat. Murkowski's always positioning for re-election. The timing is convenient. Rachel: Shockingly convenient. Speaker 6: And Hawley said, quote, I don't want to get too far over my skis. That is not a profile of courage. Rachel: That is a man watching poll numbers. Poll numbers not reading the Constitution. Speaker 6: Which makes me ask, is dissent without consequence actually dissent, or is it just positioning? Rachel: Both things can be true. Their concerns are valid, and their timing is electoral. CNN's own reporting says GOP leaders don't have the votes even in their own caucus but nobody's primarying themselves over this. Speaker 6: Announced skepticism isn't a no vote. Sound familiar? Rachel: That's the whole episode. Speaker 6: And look, if the receipts are starting to pile up in Congress, wait until you see what they look like at the pump. Speaker 4: So those receipts we've been tallying at the Pentagon, they don't include the one in your wallet. Speaker 6: Right. Moody's Analytics put it at $100 billion drained from U.S. households since the war started. That's roughly $750 per family. Speaker 4: Short-term pain. Speaker 6: Yeah, and gas was $2.98 a gallon the day before we hit Iran. According to AAA, it hit $4.55 by Memorial Day weekend. That's a 50% jump. Okay, so get this. Trump was asked directly at the White House whether Americans' financial situation was motivating him to push for a deal. Time magazine covered it. His answer? Not even a little bit. He said that out loud. Rachel: On the record, I don't think about Americans' financial situation. Speaker 6: So here's the thing about that: the Pentagon told us the war cost at least twenty nine billion dollars in military spending. That number doesn't touch fuel surcharges, supply chain pressure or the interest on the debt we're borrowing to fund all of it. Rachel: What's the actual ROI timeline look like when he calls that short-term? Short-term until when? Gas prices probably won't normalize until Speaker 6: Wow. Rachel: mid to late 2027, even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow. Cute promise, not free. And that math matters, because we started this war without a deal on the table. Trump left the nuclear agreement in twenty eighteen promising something better. A hundred days in, we still don't have one. And here's where the receipt goes all the way back to twenty eighteen. Speaker 6: Yeah, because this didn't start with Operation Epic Fury. The nuclear file has a much longer paper trail. Rachel: Trump pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA in May twenty eighteen, called it the worst deal ever and promised a far better one. That was eight years, Jordyn, eight years. Speaker 6: So here's the thing. The JCPOA wasn't a great formula. It had sunset provisions, no missile restrictions. But when you throw out a product, you need proof the replacement actually works before you pull it. And the IAEA kept verifying Iran was in compliance right until we walked. After we left, Iran started enriching past those limits within a year. Rachel: Cute move-very." And then in April time reported Trump said the war is nearing completion while also threatening to bomb every power plant if no deal materialized-both things seem speech. Wait, wait, wait-nearing completion and bomb the power plants? That's not a deal strategy; that's a hostage negotiation with no exit. According to CNBC, oil traders watched that speech and immediately sent Speaker 5: prices higher. Rachel: They set prices up four per cent; they read it as the war getting longer not shorter. Speaker 6: Right, because the nuclear file is still unresolved, the Strait is still contested, and CNBC noted, as of June, we're four months in with no peace deal in sight. Rachel: So the ROI, on scrapping the twenty eighteen deal, spent twenty five billion dollars, no new agreement, and Iran was closer to a bomb before the bomb started falling. Which raises a question, and I don't think it's a partisan one: Who was saying this would happen? And were they being listened to? Jordyn: Okay, so Jordyn's closing question last segment was, who saw this coming? And the honest answer, the anti-war left. Rachel: Yeah, real talk, this one stings a little, but the numbers don't care about your jersey. Jordyn: Not even a little bit, to borrow a phrase. Rachel: The anti-war argument that executive military action without a congressional authorization vote is a constitutional problem, that is not a new left-wing talking point. point). They were saying it about Iraq (they got largely ignored), and at the April twenty ninth Armed Services Committee hearing, Rep Ro Khanna asked Hegseth a straightforward question: "Do you know what this war is costing Americans in gas and food?" And Hegseth called it a gotcha question about domestic things, then called congressional critics the biggest adversary the US faces. Bigger than Iran, Apparently. But here's the thing, Khanna was right. The question was completely legitimate regardless of who asked it. Jordyn: According to the Hill's coverage of that hearing, Khanna cited estimates the war could cost around six hundred and thirty one billion dollars to the economy. Hegseth had no answer. Speaker 3: Wow! Rachel: Acknowledging that doesn't mean switching parties; it means being consistent about the principle. Jordyn: Exactly. If executive overreach was wrong under Obama, it's wrong now. The jersey doesn't change the play. Speaker 4: And being honest about who was consistent, that's not a concession, that's actually the only credible position left. Jordyn: Which brings us to the harder question: The movement spent years calling the foreign policy establishment warmongers; now it's funding the biggest military expansion since World War Two. So what does the movement's own stated values actually require here? Here's the real philosophical crack in all of this. The FY2027 defense budget request is $1.5 trillion, a 42% increase, the largest military spending jump since the Korean War. Rachel: Wow! Jordyn: And this is the party that ran on shrinking government. Rachel: Right—small government, except for the part that shoots things. Jordyn: The movement that spent years calling the foreign policy establishment globalists and neocons is now funding the biggest military adventure in decades. That's not irony. That's a receipt. Rachel: Okay, so here is where I get complicated. There is one honest argument available to them: preventing a nuclear Iran has real long-term strategic value. Value—that's not nothing. Jordyn: I'll give them that—I will. Rachel: Mm hm! Jordyn: But that argument requires showing your work: what's the actual plan? What does success look like? Because Time reported Trump literally said he doesn't think about Americans' financial situation, not even a little bit. That's not strategy, that's just vibes. And that's where the accountability gap doesn't close. The strategic case might be legitimate. The process was a disaster. Speaker 4: Exactly; you can believe the goal matters and still demand the ROI Those aren't Speaker 6: Right. Speaker 4: contradictory. So where does that leave us? A one point five trillion dollar budget, a twenty nine billion dollar war tab per the Pentagon and a movement that never resolved what America First actually means when America goes to war. Which is exactly why your rep needs to answer for it. That's where we're landing next. Jordyn: So here's the actual ask: two things. First, find your representative on house.gov, call or email and ask one question: did you vote on the $200 billion supplemental request? And if not, why not? Speaker 4: And Jordyn: That's it. One question. Speaker 4: it doesn't matter which party they're in. CNN reported GOP leaders don't even have the votes in their own caucus. Your Republican rep owes you that answer as much as your Democratic one. Jordyn: The second thing is track the supplemental when it formally lands. Speaker 4: 'How?' Jordyn: Taxpayers for Common Sense is following it. IranWarCost dot com is tracking the running tab. Bookmark both. Speaker 4: And, Jordyn, the standard here isn't whether you were right about the war. Jordyn: No, the bar is simpler than that. Did you apply the same standard you applied to this Administration you applied to the last? That's the whole test. Speaker 4: No, the bar is simpler than that. Did you apply the same standard to this Administration you applied to the last? That's the whole test. Jordyn: If you demanded a plan, a vote and a cost estimate from Obama or Biden, you demand it now. Rachel: Right. Jordyn: If you didn't care then, at least be honest about that. Time quoted Trump saying he doesn't think about Americans' financial situation, not even a little bit. So someone has to. Speaker 4: That's the job. Not just ours. Jordyn: Yours, too. Call the office, read the receipts. Speaker 4: That's all we're asking. Jordyn: That's the whole show. Okay, so bottom line on today, someone in this country has to think about Americans' finances because Trump said on the record he won't, not even a little bit, which, paired with the Pennsylvania rally pledge that opened our show, is a receipt that basically files itself. It does; and the united economics on this war are not closing. Twenty nine billion already on the Pentagon's tab, according to Time, with a two hundred billion dollar ask still floating in Congress. Speaker 4: With zero answers for the fiscal hawks who asked where the money goes. Chip Roy did not get a straight answer. Rachel: Great. Speaker 4: Thomas Massie did not get a straight answer. Jordyn: Shocker. Speaker 4: Look, if this episode made you think, share it with one friend who's been quietly biting their tongue. That's the whole ask. Jordyn: Subscribe wherever you listen, drop us a rating, and help some more politically homeless voters find us. Speaker 4: Thanks for being here, Rachel. Jordyn: Thanks for holding the receipts with me, Jordyn. We'll see you next time.