MAGA-Meter Report Card: One-Third Already Dead, May 26

Rachel: Mm-hmm. Jordyn: Welcome back to Red Flag, I'm Rachel. Rachel: And I'm Jordyn. And oh, man, do we have a receipt heavy episode for you today. Jordyn: Like a whole folder of receipts. Rachel: A filing cabinet! Jordyn: Okay, so Trump stood in front of a Detroit audience in January and said, I've kept all my promises and much more. All of them. Rachel: All of them. Jordyn: PolitiFact's MAGA-Meter is tracking 75 of his second-term promises on verifiable Rachel: Yeah. Jordyn: outcomes. Kept rate? About 19%. Rachel: Which is... not all of them. Jordyn: Not quite, and roughly a third stalled, Quartz, Rachel: Mm-hmm. Jordyn: Congress, or just no follow-through. Rachel: Yeah, we'll get there. Jordyn: But wait—the Trump Mobile T1 phone. Rachel: Oh, no. Jordyn: Hmm. Around 590,000 buyers paid $59 million in deposits. According to IBTimes, the phone was billed as Made in America, and, plot twist, it's not. Rachel: Wow. Jordyn: And many buyers still don't have a phone. Rachel: The most patriotic unboxing of nothing. Jordyn: We also have a Friendly Fire segment, and this one, Rachel, I think is going to sit with people. Rachel: It should, because the people calling for accountability this week are Trump's own supporters. That's the story. Jordyn: All right, let's pull out the receipts. Cold opens first, and it starts in Detroit. Sure, I've kept all my promises and much more. Okay, let's go to the tape. That is a direct quote. Trump, January 2026, speaking to a Detroit audience. PBS News reported it. PolitiFact Rachel: Yeah. Jordyn: heard it too. And PolitiFact has a whole instrument for this, the MAGA-Meter. They're tracking 75 of his second-term campaign promises. five possible ratings: promise kept, promise broken, Rachel: Mm-hmm. Jordyn: compromise, Stalled, in the works. Key detail, Speaker 3: Jordyn: Jordyn: they rate on verifiable outcomes, not effort, not intentions. Right, an executive order that goes nowhere, not a kept promise. An announcement that never materializes, not a kept promise. Which, if you think about it, is just how words work. Rachel: Work. Jordyn: Radical concept. Apparently, according to PBS News, nearly one-third of those 75 promises have stalled out. Courts, Congress, sometimes the White House just never Rachel: Wow. Jordyn: followed through. And about 19% are rated Promise Kept as of the February snapshot. So if you're scoring at home, that's roughly one in five. All of them, and much more. Much more. Okay, so here's the question that's going to drive this whole episode. Which promises actually got kept? Which ones got quietly buried? And who noticed first? So, 75 promises. PolitiFact graded every single one, and here's where it lands. According to PBS and PolitiFact, about 19% are promise kept. Rachel: Which sounds okay until you realize that's roughly 14 out of 75. Jordyn: 14 on a 100-point scale. That's a D. I mean, I'd argue for partial credit on some of these. Oh, you're going to love this part. PolitiFact explicitly doesn't do partial credit. Outcomes only. Not effort, Rachel: Mm-hmm. Jordyn: not intent, not a really good press release. Rachel: Right, right. And I get the criticism that it's early, there's still time on the clock. Jordyn: Sure, but he's the one who said he'd aced it already. He literally graded himself first. He graded himself first, and then the rubric came back. So the Kept column does include real things. Jan 6 pardons, Rachel: Yeah. Jordyn: a TikTok deal, the tax cut extension signed in 2025. That happened. I'll grant those. But then you've got 31% rated Stalled, Courts, Congress, or just no action from the White House at all. And that last one is the one that gets me, stalled because the White House just didn't follow through. So not even the court's fault, just didn't happen. Didn't happen. And the grocery promise is sitting right there in that pile, which, funny enough, is exactly where we're headed. Because abstract stalled hits different when it shows up on your receipt. So now flip that scorecard to your actual household; PolitiFact rates the grocery and consumer prices promise as "stalled." Groceries, electricity, housing, medical care, all higher than when he took office. Rachel: And the electric is the one that really stings. He literally said, verbatim, 'Your electric bill will be fifty percent less within twelve months.' Jordyn: Right, it went up nearly seven percent instead. Groundwork Collaborative puts the typical household at $123 more for electricity in 2025. Rachel: So not 50% down, $123 up. Jordyn: And the White House response, they point to gas. Rachel: Gas, the one category that actually cooperated. Jordyn: GasBuddy had households saving around $177 on gasoline for the year. That's real. I'm not going to dismiss it. Rachel: Okay, but here's the thing. We literally used to make fun of Democrats. Jordyn: Democrats for cherry picking one number while ignoring the rest of the basket. We did, and now we're watching the exact same move-gases down so groceries and electricity don't count? Rachel: It's this same logic we called Jordyn: Right. Rachel: out last episode with the tariff receipts: take your favorite data point, wave it around, ignore the rest. Jordyn: Look, on net, the cost of living promise is not close to being kept-not stalled in a give it time way, stalled in a literally prices are moving the wrong direction way. Rachel: And that's before the foreign policy ledger, which honestly Rachel Rachel might be where the real receipts live. Jordyn: Yeah, Ukraine, buckle up because that one's a whole other category of broken. Now foreign policy; and this one's got a number attached: fifty three." Nodding, fifty three times, according to CNN's fact check, Trump said he'd end the Ukraine war in twenty four hours. PolitiFact rates it promise broken; the war is still going. Look, wars are Rachel: are hard to stop-I'll grant that-especially when you didn't start. I'll grant it, too. Jordyn: Mm-hmm. Rachel: But here's where that argument falls apart. You said twenty four hours: not 'I'll work hard on it,' not 'we'll make progress'--twenty four hours! Jordyn: Fifty three times. Rachel: With emphasis. If you say it that many times you own the number-full stop. Jordyn: And it's not just stalled talks. The Financial Times reported in April that that acting U.S. Ambassador Julie Davis is leaving Kyiv, reportedly frustrated with Trump's dwindling support for Ukraine. That's the second ambassador out in a year. Speaker 4: Second one, and the first, Bridget Brink, resigned saying she could no longer carry out the administration's policy in good conscience. Jordyn: So the question I keep coming back to: Is there a coherent foreign policy here? Or is dealmaker just a brand that works great on a debate stage? Debate stage, and falls apart when Putin won't pick up the phone on schedule. Speaker 4: Turns out actual negotiations don't run on a campaign time line. Jordyn: Chuckles. Who knew? Speaker 4: The thing that bothers me most, this isn't just a failed promise, it's a stress test for whether the strongman model has any real answers once the cameras are off and the other side has its own strongman. Jordyn: And the answer so far is no. The war keeps going, the diplomats keep walking out. And the twenty four hour clock has been ticking for over a year. Speaking of executive promises that sound bigger than they are... Shifting gears here, the Department of Education. Still there. Still there. Trump signed the executive order in March 2025. Big ceremony, kids at school desks, the whole thing. We're going to eliminate it, he said. Speaker 5: And yet, the department is open, distributing federal funds, writing checks. Jordyn: The 2027 budget actually describes the agency as on its... PATH TO ELIMINATION. Speaker 5: Path to elimination? That's not a promise kept," Rachel, "that's a journey. Jordyn: A journey with no arrival date, and, crucially, no congressional votes. Speaker 5: Which is the whole thing, right? Closing the Department requires an act of Congress. The White House press secretary acknowledged it the morning Trump signed the order: "Full abolition needs congressional approval. Jordyn: So what he signed Speaker 4: Right. Jordyn: was an announcement of intent. not an outcome. Speaker 5: And here's what that tells you about this Administration's accountability record: the gap between announcing a thing and doing a thing is enormous. Every time. Jordyn: PolitiFact's MAGA-Meter has this one still in progress. The Department lost half its workforce, gutted, shrunken, reorganized, but not gone. Not gone. Which honestly sets up the next receipt perfectly. Because we've been talking about institutional promises-buildings that still have the lights on. Speaker 5: Oh, the next one is so much better. Jordyn: So much better. Or worse, depends on whether you ordered four of them. Speaker 5: Wait, what? Jordyn: Okay, so the phone. The phone! Don Jr. and Eric announced the Trump Mobile T1 at Trump Tower in June 2025-$499, patriotic Android, according to IBTimes, proudly designed and built in the United States. Speaker 4: And roughly 590,000 people handed over a $100 deposit. That's $59 million. Speaker 5: Sitting with Trump Mobile. Jordyn: Wait for it ... by February twenty twenty six executives confirmed the phone would not be manufactured in the U.S. the Made in America language got quietly swapped to shaped by American innovation. Speaker 5: SHAPED BY AMERICAN INNOVATION Jordyn: shaped ... and then in April they updated the terms to say a deposit does not Not guarantee that a device will be produced or made available for purchase after collecting fifty nine million dollars. Speaker 4: So they took sixty million dollars and then legally told you they might just not make a phone? Jordyn: Correct. Speaker 4: Wow. Jordyn: But Jordan, here is the part I physically cannot move past. The flag. The flag. Per the Verge, the promotional imagery used an AI-generated Rachel: American flag with eleven stripes, America has thirteen. Too short on the Patriot phone. And the shipping announcement video: nine strikes! ex Community Notes flagged it immediately. Speaker 4: Here's what gets me, Rachel: this is the tariff manufacturing story in miniature-promise it's American, walk it back, update the fine print, move on. Jordyn: NOTING-Same playbook, different product. Rachel: And the base is holding the receipt. Speaker 4: Which, speaking of receipts, there were actual checks. X promised next. Jordyn: So same playbook, different product. Trump posted on Truth Social tariff revenue will fund $2,000 dividend checks for low and middle-income Americans, Speaker 4: Wow. Jordyn: before the midterms. Speaker 4: And his own party immediately said no. Jordyn: Rand Paul called it a crazy idea. Senate Majority Leader Thune said the revenue should go toward the national debt instead. Speaker 4: Which, okay, fine, but here's the thing. The math doesn't even work in the first place. Yes, the Tax Foundation ran the numbers: cost somewhere between two hundred and seventy nine billion and six hundred and seven billion dollars, depending on structure. Jordyn: And tariffs raised how much in twenty twenty five? About one hundred and fifty eight billion dollars in new revenue. So you're promising to hand out twice what you collected. Speaker 4: A dividend funded by a tax that doesn't generate enough to cover the dividend. Jordyn: A dividend funded by a tax that doesn't generate enough to cover the dividend. Speaker 4: A Columbia economist put it plainly: it's not a dividend when you give money back to people that they paid earlier. Jordyn: That's the receipt! You charged households fifteen hundred dollars in tariff costs, then floated giving two thousand back as if you're being generous. Speaker 4: And after the pushback, Trump reportedly walked away from his own Truth Social post. The party that built its brand on fiscal responsibility was debating whether to mail out checks funded by a consumer tax that can't cover them. Rachel: So when the White House announces something and Congress says no or the courts say no, is that a feature or a bug? Speaker 4: That's the question, right? Rachel: So here's the structural question. Question. The tariff check and the dividend math both point toward why does a third of the MAGA-Meter sit stalled? PolitiFact lays out three reasons, right? Courts, Congress, or the White House just didn't. That third one is the most damning. No court blocked it, no Senate filibuster. They just didn't. But the court piece is real, too. According to PBS's coverage of the MAGA-Meter, the Supreme Court weighed in on tariff powers specifically. That's not a surprise twist. The founders put taxing power in Article I for a reason. Yeah. Executive orders move fast, courts move slower, but they move. And when they do, a promise built on executive action alone has no floor. So if the whole strategy was executive orders, why are we surprised the court said no? Right? That's the design. That's Madison doing his job from 1787. And then there's the one chamber problem. Jordyn: PolitiFact flags the SAVE Act, proof of citizenship voting requirement. House passed it; Senate stalled. Rachel: Passing something in the House and calling it done is not governing-that's a press release. But it's a very satisfying press release. Oh, the best. Look, the pattern across all three reasons is the same. The promise assumed no resistance. Courts resist. Senators resist. Inertia resists. And that's where this starts getting personal. Because some of the people most surprised by that resistance, they voted for it, and now they're talking about it on TikTok. Which honestly is exactly where we're headed next. Okay, so here's the Friendly Fire, and I'll own this one. Jordyn: Mm-hmm. Rachel: The left has been making this exact accountability argument for two years. Two years, consistently. And we mostly waved it off, called it partisan. But now, according to IBTimes, you've got a self-described Trump supporter on TikTok directly confronting Don Jr. and Eric saying, where's my phone? He ordered four of them. Jordyn: Four. That's not a left-wing critic. That's a voter who believed the promise, paid the deposit, and is now doing our Rachel: Right. Jordyn: job for us. Rachel: And it's not just the phone. Financial Times reports the frustration covers the tariff-dividend checks, the Greenland Hospital ship, all three promises, same pattern: announced, celebrated, gone. Jordyn: Right. And here's what the friendly fire actually is this week. The critique. Rachel: The technique was correct all along; we just, it had to come from inside the house, before anyone Jordyn: Yeah! Rachel: took it seriously. It's the whole thing, isn't it? Same argument, different messenger. Jordyn: And I think that matters. When a loyal voter asks the accountability question, it's harder to dismiss as bad faith. That's a real shift. Rachel: So now the question is, what do voters actually do with that anger, which is exactly where we're landing next. Jordyn: Yeah, that's the closer. Rachel: So here's where we land: PolitiFact's MAGA-Meter is still live, still updating; the Education Department still exists; the tariff check is gone; the T1 phone is vaporware; and the scorecard is public. Jordyn: Right; and the thing people miss is that the MAGA-Meter isn't a gotcha-it's literally just checking whether the person you voted for did what they said. That's the lowest bar. Rachel: It is the lowest bar. Jordyn: And nineteen percent kept out of seventy five tracked promises. A third stalled-that's not "spin," that's PBS citing PolitiFact. Rachel: Look, some promises got delivered, give credit. But if you voted for limited government and fiscal discipline, the grocery prices are up, the Education Department still has the lights on, and the $2,000 check never came. Jordyn: Those aren't talking points, those are the specific things that were said, out loud, on camera. Rachel: Multiple times. And you're allowed to grade it. Absolutely you're allowed to grade it. Grading it is the most conservative thing you can do right now. So do that. Bookmark the MAGA-Meter, check it yourself. Not because we told you to, because you're a voter, not a fan. Fans don't get receipts. Voters do. That's it. That's the whole show. Okay, so here's where we land. Trump told a Detroit crowd he'd kept every promise. Speaker 4: Mm-hmm. Rachel: PolitiFact ran the numbers, and roughly one in five came through. Jordyn: One in five, and the phone still hasn't shipped. Rachel: That's the receipt right there, Jordyn. The whole episode in one sentence. Jordyn: Look, the MAGA-Meter isn't a partisan hit job, Speaker 4: Right. Jordyn: it's just checking the work. Voters are allowed to do that. Rachel: Loudly!" That was the whole point today; you graded yourself an A, we pulled up the transcript. Receipts-we have so many receipts." Warmly: "If this episode made you think, share it with one friend who's been biting their tongue. Subscribe wherever you listen, drop us a rating. Help us find the other politically homeless people out there. There are so many of us. Thanks for being here. We'll see you next week. Jordyn: Take care, everyone.