Tuesday: The Purge Is Real and Your Congressman Is Next

Rush Lindell: You know what nobody wants to say? The Republican Party just ran a loyalty purge in broad daylight, and it worked. Reagan: Welcome to the Rush Lindell Show. I'm Reagan, he's Rush, and today we are neck deep in the 2026 primary season. Rush Lindell: Massie, gone. Cassidy, gone. And now John Cornyn, four-term senator from Texas, gone. Trump's endorsement record Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: sits at 18. Eighteen and zero. Reagan: One eighteen and zero-that number is hard to argue with. The question worth asking is what it costs in November. Rush Lindell: Well, that's the part we're going to dig into, because winning a primary and winning a general are two different sports. Reagan: Right, and Brookings published a piece today asking exactly that—whether this is shrewd party building or a general election liability in the making. Rush Lindell: Paxton beat Cornyn by twenty-eight points—twenty-eight—the first Republican senator from Texas to lose his own primary since nineteen seventy. Reagan: And Cook Political shifted the Texas rating the same night results came in. That's not nothing. Rush Lindell: We've also got the part where candidates Trump was actively beating were running pro-Trump ads anyway. That section of the show is going to be something. Reagan: Yeah, AdImpact tracked roughly seventy percent of Republican primary ads pledging Trump loyalty, even the losing ones. Rush Lindell: And then we close out with the November map. Democrats need four Senate seats, the House only needs three flips, and forecasters Monsters currently like their odds there. Reagan: So it's possible the loyalty purge wins the primary war and loses the chamber anyway. That's the scenario we walk through at the end. Rush Lindell: That's exactly right; let's get into it. Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. So here's what's going on with the 2026 primary season, and I need you to sit with this number for a second. According to Axios, Donald Trump has picked favorites in more primaries than any other president in history, more than any, and his endorsed candidates have won every single race where results are in. 100 percent. Reagan: That's a remarkable number, and Brookings put out a piece just this week noting that these primaries are the clearest early indicator whether Trump still has his grip on the Republican Party. The short answer seems to be yes. Rush Lindell: Yes, unambiguously yes. Axios reported he endorsed ninety five percent of the two hundred seventeen member House GOP Conference, Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: nearly two thirds of Senate races, and the strategy, Reagan, is not random. He endorsed vulnerable incumbents early, froze out challengers before they could gain traction and made the price of def Speaker 3: more than one hundred fifty thousand dollars. Rush Lindell: It's of defiance very visible. Reagan: Now, here's where I'd pump the brakes a little: is this a purge, or is it just smart incumbent protection? There's a difference. Rush Lindell: Oh, I love this! Reagan: I'm serious: if you endorse the people most likely to win anyway, your win rate looks extraordinary. The underlying question is whether these endorsements are actually moving voters or just following the field. Rush Lindell: Both things can be true, Reagan, and here's the thing. The strategy Axios described is deliberate: the White House decided early on to endorse vulnerable incumbents before challengers could organize, specifically to freeze the field. That's not incumbent protection, that's field management. There's a word for that: Reagan: Control. Rush Lindell: control. And the receipts are landing in real time-Cornyn, Cassidy, Massie-these are not fringe figures getting bounced, these are Senate lions and a fourteen year House veteran. Reagan: And that's where I think the story gets genuinely significant: Brookings flagged that the pattern in both parties' primaries tells us something about twenty twenty eight, not just twenty twenty six. The progressive left is watching what Trump does to dissenters and drawing their own conclusions about. It's about primary power. Rush Lindell: Which is the larger thesis here: this is not just a scorecard, this is a structured loyalty sweep. Win in the primary, own the conference; own the conference, own the agenda; own the agenda Reagan: Uh Rush Lindell: through Reagan: huh. Rush Lindell: November. It's layered. Reagan: I'd agree with the first two steps; the third is where November complicates things. Primary wins inside a safe field don't automatically translate. Rush Lindell: And that is a real question worth carrying into the future. to the fall. But before we get to November, the names matter just as much as the numbers, because the numbers tell you the pattern, the specific names tell you how far he's willing to push it, and some of those names they'll surprise you. Reagan: What kind of offense are we talking about specifically? Rush Lindell: That's exactly where we're going next. So the names. Let's get into the names, because that's where the thesis either holds or it doesn't. Speaker 4: Walk me through them. Rush Lindell: First up, Thomas Massie, 14 years in Congress, Kentucky's fourth, one of the most principled fiscal conservatives in the House by any honest accounting. May 19, Trump-backed Ed Gallrein beats him. Done. Speaker 4: And here's the thing about Massie. He didn't vote to impeach. He didn't switch parties. He pushed to release the Epstein files. He opposed the big beautiful bill on deficit grounds. He voted against the Iran war. That's his offense. Rush Lindell: Fiscal independence and asking inconvenient questions: capital crimes in twenty twenty-six. Speaker 4: I'll give him this: he went down swinging. Said in his concession speech: "There is a yearning in this country for someone who will vote for principles over party. Rush Lindell: Look, I respect Massie. He picked the wrong fights at the wrong time. The party has a direction-he ran in the other one. But that race-forty two point six million dollars in ad spending, most expensive House primary on record-Pete Hegseth literally flew to Kentucky to campaign against a sitting congressman. Speaker 4: That detail still gets me-the defense secretary on the ground in a House primary? Rush Lindell: Now-Cassidy, Speaker 5: Hmm. Rush Lindell: Louisiana, May sixteenth, one of seven GOP senators who voted to convict. VI. VICT TRUMP AFTER JANUARY SIXTH-THE RESULT, JULIA LETLOW AT forty five per cent, JOHN FLEMING AT twenty eight per cent, AND CASSIDY AT twenty five per cent-THIRD IN HIS OWN PRIMARY! That's not a loss, That's an eviction. Reagan: I was going to say they didn't beat him, they lapped him. But here's my honest read: Cassidy was always the most predictable casualty on this list; he voted to convict; he publicly opposed Trump in Twenty-twenty-four; the Louisiana GOP censured him; you saw this coming five years ago. Rush Lindell: That's fair; still, he became the first elected incumbent senator to lose renomination since Richard Lugar in Twenty-twelve. Reagan: Right. Quite historic—and then we get to Texas—and Rush Lindell: Yes. Reagan: this one, Reagan, this one is different. Rush Lindell: Undoubtedly John Cornyn. Reagan: John Cornyn, Senate Majority Whip, Twenty-four years in the Senate, the guy who basically ran the chamber's institutional machinery, the person Mitch McConnell handed the keys to. According to reporting from Texas Tribune and NBC News, Ken Paxton beat him sixty-four to thirty-six. six in the May twenty-sixth run-off. Rush Lindell: Sixty-four to thirty-six. Reagan: First Republican Texas senator ever to lose a primary—ever—in the history of the state. Rush Lindell: And the race cost over a hundred million dollars, most expensive Senate primary in history. Reagan: Twenty-four years of what they used to call establishment credibility gone in a week because a late Trump endorsement of Ken Paxton. Flip the math entirely. Rush Lindell: Now, I do want to flag what this means downstream. Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in November. Texas isn't suddenly competitive, but national Democrats now see an opening they didn't have before: a more extreme nominee in a race that cost the party over a hundred million dollars in primary money. Reagan: So you're saying Trump's strength in the primary might be the party's liability in the fall. Rush Lindell: I'm saying it's a real question. Brookings flagged exactly this tension back on May 12. Primary dominance and general election risk aren't the same calculation. Reagan: And that tension shows up everywhere in this cycle. You know what's almost funny? Even the candidates Trump was actively trying to defeat were invoking his name in their own ads. Rush Lindell: Oh, that's a whole thing. Reagan: Bill Cassidy's ads featured him working with Trump on taxes. tax cuts, while Trump was backing his replacement, the scorpion and the frog, except the frog put the scorpion in a campaign ad. Rush Lindell: It gets more absurd from there, actually. Reagan: It really does, and that's where we're going. Speaker 4: Now flip that on its head for a second, because here's what nobody talks about with the Cassidy story. Speaker 5: The ads. Speaker 4: The ads. NBC reported it. According to AdImpact, 70% of TV ads in the Kentucky, Indiana, and Louisiana primaries mention Trump by name. 70%! Speaker 5: Including from candidates Trump was actively trying to beat. Speaker 4: Including from candidates Trump was actively trying to beat. Beat. Cassidy, the guy Trump posted needed to be voted out of office, ran an ad saying he worked with President Trump to pass tax cuts. Speaker 5: While Trump was funding ads to end his career. Speaker 4: Same week. So I've been thinking, we need an award for this. The most improved MAGA. Cassidy gets the gold. Running pro-Trump ads in a race where Trump is actively caning you? That is Olympic-level performance. Speaker 5: Look, I get the strategy-if you're down you don't run away from the base; but there's something almost poetic about it. Speaker 4: Poetic? Reagan, it's a hostage video filmed by the hostage. Speaker 5: Okay, that's fair. Speaker 4: And Cassidy isn't alone. Indiana State Senate Linda Rogers ran ads bragging she worked on extending Trump's big beautiful bill while Trump's people were spending millions to take her out. Rush Lindell: Right, so the performance of loyalty has become its own loyalty test, meaning even the act of pretending isn't enough. Speaker 4: You know what nobody wants to say? That's not a coalition anymore. That's a casting call. Rush Lindell: Here's where I push back slightly. Some of this is rational behavior. These are deep red seats. If you're Cassidy and you voted for impeachment, running away from Trump doesn't save you. At least leaning in gives you a lane. Speaker 4: Sure, and it still didn't work. Third place, Speaker 5: Mm-hmm. Speaker 4: finished third. Speaker 5: Which means even the performance wasn't enough to overcome the actual vote five years ago. Speaker 4: Bingo! So the question is, what does that tell you about the general? If winning the primary requires this level of public devotion, what happens when you're on a debate stage in a swing district in November? Speaker 5: That's the real tension, and it's exactly where we need to go next. Rush Lindell: Next, because Texas just shifted from likely Republican to lean Republican, and Paxton heads into November with $7 million. His opponent has $40. Speaker 4: Yeah, the sycophant Olympics just ended. Now comes the actual race. So Cook Political moved Texas from likely to lean Republican the night Paxton won. That's immediate. That's not spin. Day one, they didn't wait a week to think about it. Rush Lindell: And here's the number I keep coming back to. Talarico has raised over $40 million. Paxton has raised $7.6 million. According to NBC News, GOP consultants are now saying party groups may have to spend up to $100 million. Speaker 5: And just to hold Texas! Speaker 4: A hundred million to hold Texas—a state Republicans have won every Senate race in since nineteen eighty-eight! Speaker 5: Right, that's the cost: you don't just pay it in Texas, either. Every dollar defending that seat is a dollar you're not spending in North Carolina or Georgia. Speaker 4: Okay, but hold on. Walk me through what a Cornyn win actually looks like in November: he loses the MAGA base, the base stays home— You might lose anyway in a wave environment. Rush Lindell: That's a fair point; but there's a difference between a base that's unenthusiastic and a candidate who's already been impeached. Speaker 4: Impeached? Rush Lindell: Acquitted by a Republican-controlled Texas Senate after his own staff accused him of bribery, Paxton has a fifty-seven percent unfavorable rating in the state. That's not a vulnerability, that's a pre-existing condition. Speaker 4: Pre-existing condition. Okay, I'll give you that. Speaker 5: Look, a unified MAGA caucus has value. I'm not dismissing that argument, but the Brookings analysis on intraparty tensions makes this point clearly: primary dominance and November viability are two separate tests. Right now, the GOP is acing one and struggling with the other. Speaker 4: You know what nobody wants to say? Paxton knew this going in. He said it himself on election night, quote, "without a shadow of a doubt. Out I will be the Democrats' number one target in November." He said it out loud! Rush Lindell: And Ted Cruz went on his podcast the Speaker 3: next day. Rush Lindell: Next morning and told Republicans, "Do not take this general election for granted; that's your own party's most recent winner in Texas telling you the math is tight. Reagan: So the question I keep landing on is a pure MAGA caucus actually harder to beat in November, or did the purge just hand Democrats Speaker 4: Wow! Reagan: a recruitment poster? Rush Lindell: That's the question. Democrats need four net Senate pickups for a majority. Republicans have to hold twenty two seats. Sabato's Crystal Ball still rates the overall battle as favoring Republicans, but Texas just moved onto the board. Reagan: And it's the most expensive media state in the country-twenty media markets, running statewide ads cost millions per week. Rush Lindell: So when a GOP strategist tells NBC News that resources are being diverted from other battlegrounds to cover a seat that should have been safe, that's real concern, not spin. Reagan: The purge was clean; whether November is clean, that's a different conversation entirely. Rush Lindell: And that map is exactly where we need to go next. Reagan: So the map comes down to this: Democrats need four net Senate pickups-their best shots: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia. Republicans are defending twenty-two seats and hoping nothing breaks bad all at once. Rush Lindell: And holding all four of those on the Democratic side is already a tall order. Georgia's Ossoff is running in a state Trump carried. Michigan is an open seat after Peters retired. Neither of those are freebies. Reagan: Exactly; so Sabato, 270toWin, the whole forecasting world still has the Senate leaning Republican. Texas was supposed to be a safe hold; now it's a competitive race. That's the canary, Reagan. That's the one you watch. Rush Lindell: I'll give you that: the Senate math still favors Republicans holding. But here's where I push back on the victory lap: The House only needs three seat flips for Democrats to take the majority. Three, and forecasters currently rate Democrats as clear favorites there. Reagan: Right, right, the out party mid term gravity is real. Rush Lindell: So you can win the primary war, consolidate the conference, run the loyalty test perfectly and still wake up in January with a Democratic Speaker. That's the scenario nobody in Trumpworld wants to say out loud. Reagan: Here's the thing nobody wants to say: the purge might hold the Senate and lose the House in the same night, and then the Brookings question that's been running under this whole episode- Primary dominance versus November viability answers itself the hard way. Rush Lindell: Which is why next week we need to look at whether the environment is shifting fast enough for that scenario to actually land. The generic ballot right now is not a comfort to Republicans. Reagan: No, it is not. We'll get into those numbers next week. Stay with us. All right, that's our show. And look, if this episode didn't make you sit up straight, check your pulse. Rush Lindell: I mean, we covered a lot of ground today. The loyalty suite, Massie, Cornyn, it all points to the same thing. Reagan: Twenty-four years gone. Rush Lindell: Yeah. Reagan: One week after a Trump endorsement, Paxton wins by twenty-eight points. That is not a close call. That is a statement. Rush Lindell: And the statement has an asterisk. According to Brookings, Paxton's fundraising weakness and legal baggage may hand Democrats a window in Texas they haven't had in years. Reagan: Win the primary, sweat the general. That's the trade. Rush Lindell: Which is exactly the tension we're going to keep watching all the way to November. Reagan: Bottom line? Trump owns the primary process right now. What he does with that in the fall is the whole ballgame. Rush Lindell: Well said. Reagan: Subscribe, leave us a five-star review, and tell a friend who needs to hear this. New episodes every weekday. Rush Lindell: Thanks for being here. We'll see you next time. Reagan: Stage up.