Tuesday: The GOP's Hail Mary Convention in Dallas

Rush LindellWell, well, well, welcome back, everybody. I'm here, and Reagan's sitting right across from me looking entirely too calm.

ReaganSomeone's got to be the adult in the room.

Rush LindellFair enough, uh, 'cause today we're talking about Dallas, folks. Uh, the GOP's throwing a full-blown midterm convention, first one in party history.

Reagan100-plus speakers, according to Axios' reporting from Saturday, practically its own zip code.

Rush LindellAnd Reagan and I are gonna fight about whether that's confidence or a straight-up panic.

ReaganWe are. Then we're pulling the thread on Trump's approval numbers and this enthusiasm gap Democrats are riding into November.

Rush LindellNumbers that ought to make some folks in Dallas sweat through their name tags.

ReaganMaybe, or the polls tell us less than everyone assumes.

Rush LindellYou know what nobody wants to say? A convention this size doesn't happen because everybody's feeling great.

ReaganThat's a fair point. It doesn't settle the argument by itself, though.

Rush LindellWe'll let that argument breathe for a minute.

ReaganIt won't survive long once you get going.

Rush LindellProbably not. Uh, and later, DeSantis is out there warning his own party they've built a turnout machine that only runs on one man.

ReaganA warning worth taking seriously, whether you agree with him or not.

Rush LindellOh, we've got thoughts on that one, too, but first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997.

ReaganGood sponsor to have around, especially once we get into the cost of living numbers later in the show.

Rush LindellSo, Reagan, Dallas, panic dressed up as strategy or the smartest move the GOP's made all cycle? Uh...

ReaganMore complicated than either extreme. Start with the actual format.

Rush LindellThen let's start there. Stick with us. Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. Dallas, American Airlines Center, September 9th and 10th. Wait for it: no delegates, no nominations, no party business at all.

ReaganA convention with no votes feels like a wedding with no bride.

Rush LindellExactly. It's the reception without the ceremony.

ReaganNone, zero.

Rush LindellSo what do you call two days of the president and his cabinet on a stage with cameras rolling if it's not a nominating convention?

ReaganA campaign rally.

Rush LindellI'm calling it the Panic Party in Dallas. Write it down. We're using that all week.

ReaganCatchy, but an unprecedented format isn't automatically panic.

Rush LindellAccording to Axios, Trump keynotes night one and closes night two. Vance gives his own keynote on night two. That's the whole show, back-to-back nights, same guy twice.

ReaganAnd Fox4 in Fort Worth confirmed the same lineup off the RNC's own schedule. It's not hidden. It's the point.

Rush LindellNobody in this country has ever done a midterm convention, not once, not the RNC, not the DNC, not anybody since Eisenhower was worried about polio.

ReaganFair, but the mechanical part, the Washington Examiner reported the RNC amended its own rules at the January winter meeting just to make this legal.

Rush LindellThey rewrote the rule book to throw themselves a party.

ReaganOr to get two free prime-time nights of coverage while holding a five-seat House majority. Democrats reportedly floated the same idea and quietly dropped it.

Rush LindellThey looked at it and said, "No, thanks. We'll just lose the normal way."

ReaganMaybe, or maybe they didn't need the stunt.

Rush LindellParties don't invent brand-new spectacles when they're winning, Reagan. Nobody's ever held a midterm convention before because nobody's ever needed one before.

ReaganThat's a theory. It's not evidence.

Rush LindellFine, theory, but you tell me why the party in charge of two branches of government suddenly needs two nights and a whole rule book rewrite just to remind people it exists.

ReaganI can think of a defensible reason, but it only holds up if the numbers back it up.

Rush LindellSo let's see the numbers.

ReaganWhat's Trump's approval actually sitting at right now?

Rush LindellAll right. You wanted numbers. Reuters and Ipsos just dropped some.

Reagan33%, that's Trump's approval right now.

Rush LindellDown from 47 when he took the oath, 14 points gone.

ReaganAnd disapproval sitting in the mid-60s in that same read.

Rush LindellSo 2/3 of the country would rather watch paint dry than watch him govern.

ReaganThat's the top line, but look at the crosstab that actually matters.

Rush LindellWhich is?

ReaganEnthusiasm. Reuters and Ipsos found 46% of Democrats call themselves very enthusiastic about November, Republicans 31.

Rush LindellThere it is. That's the number, Reagan, not the approval score, the fire in the belly.

ReaganThe Hill paired that with something else. His numbers right now sit about eight points below where he was at this point in 2018.

Rush LindellAnd '18 wasn't exactly a banner year for House Republicans.

ReaganNo, it wasn't. Decision Desk HQ's running average has Democrats up around six points on the generic ballot, a lead they've held since spring.

Rush LindellSix points nationally usually means real seats.

ReaganIt's how a model translates it, yes. An approval poll isn't a vote count, and an enthusiasm screen isn't either.

Rush LindellCome on

ReaganNo. 2018, Democrats won the House by 40 seats. Same year, Republicans picked up two in the Senate.

Rush LindellOh.

ReaganOne national mood, two different maps.

Rush LindellFine, the map matters. But nobody stages a midterm convention because the internals look fine. You stage it because the gap's 15 points and closing it is the whole point of Dallas.

ReaganThat I won't fight you on. The real question is whether tax relief and border security on a stage moves anyone mad about their grocery bill.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly where the cost of living numbers come in. Forget the horse race for a second. What's actually in people's carts at the grocery store matters more.

ReaganReuters and Ipsos put a number on that this week. 71% disapprove of how the President's handling the cost of living.

Rush LindellSeven, chum. And you're telling me some of those 70 voted for him.

ReaganAbout 4 in 10 Republicans, according to that same Reuters/Ipsos poll. That's not the base cracking. That's the base wincing.

Rush LindellWincing at the milk aisle. Wincing at the pump.

ReaganAnd 47% in that survey say affordability decides their vote in November. Not immigration, not crime. Groceries and gas.

Rush LindellHere's the part that should scare every strategist in that Dallas ballroom. Reuters/Ipsos also found registered voters trust Democrats more on the economy. First time in roughly a decade.

ReaganA decade. Let that sit.

Rush LindellAnd gas prices have been climbing since those Iran strikes hit back in February, so the guy filling up his truck in Ohio isn't thinking about convention stagecraft. He's thinking about 40 bucks more a week.

ReaganI'll make the harder version of that point. Presidents get blamed for prices they only half control: supply chains, a foreign strike, OPEC mood swings. That was true for Biden on eggs. It's true for Trump on gas now.

Rush LindellSure, but he's the one standing at the podium in Dallas talking tax relief.

ReaganWhich is exactly the mismatch. Over 100 speakers, and the headline planks are tax relief, border security, public safety. Real message, wrong order.

Rush LindellYeah. You don't open with border security when the guy's staring at a receipt for a rotisserie chicken.

ReaganRight. If affordability is the number one issue for damn near half the electorate, it needs to be speaker 1, not speaker 41.

Rush LindellAnd speaking of things that used to cost less, my friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one-ounce silver American Eagle below spot price, below what silver is actually trading for.

ReaganBelow spot, and they're covering shipping and taxes on top of that.

Rush LindellPriced below spot. Lear eating the loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person. New customers only. Free shipping. Fully insured by Lear. This is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganAnd remember, spot price doesn't even include minting, shipping, or dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal.

Rush LindellBuying below spot almost never happens. This isn't some obscure bullion piece either. It's backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, something you can actually hold.

ReaganGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now.

Rush Lindell24 hours. The URL goes dark after that. When it's gone, it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganSo back to Dallas. 100-plus speakers, tax relief front and center, and the poll numbers say voters wanted that message about 18 months ago.

Rush LindellWhich raises a question I genuinely don't know the answer to. Does a stage that big even fit the fix that small?

ReaganWe'll find out who's actually standing on it.

Rush LindellUh, building on that, have you seen the actual run sheet for Dallas?

ReaganThe one with 109 names on it.

Rush Lindell109. Cabinet officials, Donald Trump Jr., Karoline Leavitt. That's not a convention. That's a wedding where nobody RSVPd.

ReaganSomewhere, a stage manager is having a very bad week.

Rush LindellI picture some poor intern running a spreadsheet at 3:00 AM going, "Wait, does RFK Jr. go before or after the cabinet panel?"

ReaganHard to tell if it's a convention or a cattle call.

Rush LindellAnd here's the kicker. Politico surveyed over 70 Republican candidates and members, and about 45 weren't going or hadn't decided.

ReaganFundraisers, district events, cost. Real reasons, not excuses.

Rush LindellSure, but the Washington Examiner's keynote list doesn't even have Senate Majority Leader Thune on it, and he's eyeing in Dallas that week.

ReaganWait, seriously?

Rush LindellSeriously. Same city, no speaking slot.

ReaganI'll grant you that's a headline, but candidates skipping a party rally in the final stretch is just campaign math. You go where your race needs you, not where the cameras are.

Rush LindellFine, fine. But you don't skip your own party's coronation unless something else feels more urgent.

ReaganOr unless it just doesn't move votes where you live. That's not a snub. That's arithmetic.

Rush LindellMaybe. Or maybe the empty chairs in Dallas and the empty booths in Nashville last month are the same story.

ReaganThat's worth sitting with.

Rush LindellBuilding on that, DeSantis said the quiet part out loud.

ReaganFox News had him laying it out plain. Trump built a block of voters who only show up for him.

Rush LindellPoll ballot top to bottom when his name's on it, gone when it's not.

ReaganAnd he's got a receipt. Florida Politics flagged the Nashville-area special election. Republican won by about nine points.

Rush LindellNine.

ReaganTrump carried that same seat by more than double that.

Rush LindellSay that again for the people in the back.

ReaganMore than double.

Rush LindellThat's not a slip. That's a floor falling out.

ReaganDeSantis isn't asking for softer messaging either.

Rush LindellNo. Bold colors, not pale pastels. That's his actual phrase.

ReaganSharper contrast with Democrats, not less Trump.

Rush LindellBecause pastel Republicans lose quietly. Bold ones at least lose with a headline.

ReaganComforting.

Rush LindellI'll tell you what Dallas actually is. It's the party staring at that Nashville number and panicking on stage.

ReaganYou don't build 100-plus speaker lineup because turnout's fine.

Rush LindellNobody stages that spectacle out of confidence.

ReaganI'll grant DeSantis the data point, but the out party always turns out harder in a midterm. Some of this is structural, not just a Trump problem.

Rush LindellSure, but nine points is an ordinary midterm sag. That margin's Trump-shaped.

ReaganIt can be Trump-shaped and structural at once, and DeSantis' fix doesn't tell you which seats it actually saves.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly the argument waiting downstream.

ReaganBecause some seats are about turnout, others are about the candidate the party actually nominated.

Rush LindellAnd one state's about to test both theories at the same time. Forget the applause meter in Dallas for a second. The real fight's in Texas.

ReaganKen Paxton beat John Cornyn in that May runoff, and now he's facing James Talarico in November.

Rush LindellReal Clear Polling just tagged that race late August, a toss-up in a state Trump carried by 14 points.

ReaganThat rating change matters. Lean Republican sliding to toss-up means Cook and Sabato are both pricing in real erosion.

Rush LindellPaxton's got baggage. Talarico's a state legislator who can actually raise money out of Austin.

ReaganAnd it's Texas. If Republicans are sweating Texas, the map's bigger than one podium in Dallas.

Rush LindellThen there's the other four, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska. Analysts call those Democrats' best shots.

ReaganFlip those four. Hold Georgia. Hold Michigan. That's the arithmetic that hands them the chamber.

Rush LindellSimple math. Nobody needs a convention to do long division.

ReaganFair, but Trump's own endorsement record cracked in August too.

Rush LindellCracked how?

ReaganNewsweek tracked losses in Michigan's 8th District primary, Tennessee's 5th, and two Florida House primaries.

Rush LindellPrimary losses, though. That's Republicans picking Republicans, a different signal than losing to a Democrat in November.

ReaganExactly the distinction people blur. A primary loss says the base split. A general loss says the map failed.

Rush LindellAnd Byron Donalds still cruised to the Florida governor nomination. NBC News called it a comfortable win, no real contest.

ReaganSo the brand's holding in some places and cracking in others.

Rush LindellMy whole point tonight, approval numbers don't vote. Precincts do.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellTrump can sit at whatever number the pollsters print. Means nothing if Paxton can't hold the Dallas suburbs. Shifting to what actually matters after Thursday.

ReaganWhether Dallas turns attention into actual votes.

Rush LindellEarly voting, absentee requests, ballot chasing over the next eight weeks. That's the real scoreboard.

ReaganAnd there's a wrinkle nobody's covered yet. New federal rules on mail ballots are tangled up in court right now.

Rush LindellWhat kind of, uh, wrinkle?

ReaganCBS News reported election officials calling the rollout virtually impossible before November. Ballots get bar-coded and batched. One bad entry and the whole batch bounces.

Rush LindellThe whole batch gets kicked back.

ReaganThat's the warning a whistleblower brought to Senator Blumenthal. A judge blocked the rule for now, but it's still moving through the courts.

Rush LindellSo voter education just became a turnout variable, same as any speech.

ReaganA great convention line doesn't fix a rejected ballot.

Rush LindellSo tool or symptom?

ReaganTool? A party with a slim majority uses whatever microphone it's got.

Rush LindellSymptom? Nobody stages a first-ever midterm convention out of comfort.

ReaganWe're not settling that tonight. The ballot box settles it in November.

Rush LindellFair. I called this whole thing the Panic Convention back in hour one, and nothing today talked me out of it.

ReaganAnd I still say it's a party using its one big microphone.

Rush LindellTwo nights of balloons, eight weeks of ballots. We'll find out which one actually moved anything. Before we let you go, the Panic Party in Dallas, that nickname's sticking, Reagan. Write it down.

ReaganI still think it's smart math, not panic, but the process point stands.

Rush LindellThe number that stuck with me all hour, Reuters and Ipsos found Democrats at 4 to 6% enthusiasm, Republicans at 31. Real gap heading into November.

ReaganA real gap. Though 2018 taught us enthusiasm doesn't always translate into seats the way you'd think.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly why you keep coming back. She never lets me have the easy version.

ReaganSomebody has to.

Rush LindellIf you like this one, subscribe, leave us five stars, tell a friend who needs to hear it.

ReaganNew episodes drop every weekday.

Rush LindellThanks for spending the hour with us.

ReaganTake care, everybody. We'll see you next time.