Tuesday: Our Picks Go on Trial in Ink

Rush LindellBumper music, hit it. Sign the ledger, folks, because the picks are on trial today, and the defendants are sitting right here.

ReaganOh, we're the defendants. Great.

Rush LindellSigned in ink. No hedging, no moving the goalposts, no, "Well, what I really meant was..."

ReaganElection Day is when the scoring rules get fixed, Rush. Everything we said on the record gets graded exactly as we said it.

Rush LindellExactly as said. Hold on, I'm already sweating.

ReaganGood. You should be.

Rush LindellI'm Rush Lindell, she's Reagan, and this is the show where the receipts come due, brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leaders since 1997.

ReaganTwo things are hanging over this hour: whether Gut beat the math, and what we said about the polls we didn't trust.

Rush LindellOh, man, the polls. We have words for the polls.

ReaganOf course you do. Ink first, though.

Rush LindellInk first, then the receipts. Every pick gets read back to us word for word.

ReaganWord for word, and no editing after the fact.

Rush LindellFine. Bumper. First, what is actually on the ballot? Four hundred and thirty-five. That's every House seat, Reagan. All of them, up for grabs on one Tuesday.

ReaganAnd 35 Senate seats. CBS News had that on its live updates page Election Day morning, along with 36 states choosing governors.

Rush LindellThirty-six governors. Somebody in a windowless room counted those and went home proud.

ReaganIt's a big board, Rush, which is why the picks matter.

Rush LindellOh, man, and we picked everywhere.

ReaganSenate, House, and governor races, all on the record. Our brief says today's job is grading those calls against what we actually said, not what we remember saying.

Rush LindellSpeak for yourself. My memory is flawless and very flattering.

ReaganMm-hmm.

Rush LindellFine. Rules. A call is right or it's wrong. No partial credit. No "I was right about the direction," no "I was close in spirit."

ReaganClose in spirit?

Rush LindellPoliticians love that one.

ReaganI'll go along with no partial credit, but I want the misses defined in writing before a single result comes in. Otherwise, the definition quietly shifts to fit whoever's losing.

Rush LindellHold on. You think I'd rig the grading?

ReaganI think anybody grading their own homework drifts, me included.

Rush LindellOkay, that's fair. Annoyingly fair.

ReaganSo what counts as a miss? Wrong winner is a miss. Wrong party is a miss.

Rush LindellWrong winner. Done. Dead. Buried.

ReaganAnd if we said it was a toss-up?

Rush LindellThen you said nothing, and you get no credit for saying nothing.

ReaganAgreed. Hedging isn't a pick.

Rush LindellNow you're talking like me.

ReaganI'll try to recover.

Rush LindellGovernors too. Thirty-six races, and I'm not letting you grade those on a curve either.

ReaganNo curve. I want each governor pick written as a winner and a party, so nobody can say later they meant something softer.

Rush LindellWinner and party. Two boxes, check or no check.

ReaganAnd the same for every Senate and House call. If we can't write it in one line, it wasn't a pick, it was a mood.

Rush LindellYou ready for the one that kept me up? The race where the polls said one thing and my gut screamed another?

ReaganOhio.

Rush LindellOhio. And the pick we signed.

ReaganBumper, then.

Rush LindellOhio. Vivek Ramaswamy against Acton for governor. And I'll say it plain, I signed my pick last week and I'm not flinching.

ReaganThen start with what you're up against. The RealClearPolling average October 9th through November 1st had Acton ahead by 4.7.

Rush LindellAn average. Love it. A bowl of lukewarm soup.

ReaganA bowl with a YouGov poll in it, Acton by 6, and Insider Advantage, a pollster you've sneered at, had Acton up 3.

Rush LindellWait, even the shaky one had him ahead?

ReaganAhead, yes. Smaller margin, same direction.

Rush LindellHmm. Okay, but earlier polls had Ramaswamy ahead, so the lead moved. Polls move. Fundamentals don't.

ReaganWhich is my point. The movement is the story, Rush. Axios reported a Republican group internal poll, 800 likely voters, October 23rd to 26th, Acton up 8.

Rush LindellA Republican group polling against its own guy. That's either honesty or a hostage video.

ReaganAxios tied it to a Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton's estranged mother. The headline said the ad was backfiring.

Rush LindellOh, man. Putting somebody's mother in an attack ad? Voters hate that.

ReaganMaybe. A separate Suffolk poll had a narrower gap, 4 points. So the pollsters don't agree on how big, only on who.

Rush LindellHold on. Don't slide that past me. 8 is an internal poll. Internals get leaked to shape a story.

ReaganFair. I'll concede the 8 carries a thumb on the scale. Take it out and you still have 4, 4.7, 6, and 3.

Rush LindellAnd here's my case. Ohio is a red state. Red states come home. The pick we signed last week was built on that, not on a lukewarm soup of surveys.

ReaganSo the pick we signed rests on a feeling about Ohio.

Rush LindellOn a century of how the place votes. That's not a feeling.

ReaganThen why did every poll you can name point the other way? Are you ignoring the evidence sitting in front of you?

Rush LindellI'm weighing it. Weighing is different from obeying.

ReaganWeighing needs something on the other side of the scale. What's your number?

Rush LindellMy numbers are the ink. You'll see it when we grade it.

ReaganConvenient.

Rush LindellLook, a poll is a photograph. Fundamentals are the terrain. Photographs change with the light.

ReaganPhotographs also tell you where people are standing today, Rush, and today is election day

Rush LindellThen tonight we find out whether I read the terrain or you read the snapshot

ReaganOr whether the snapshot was right and the terrain moved. Both of us are on the hook

Rush LindellSay what you want. Now, you wanna pollster fight, wait till you see who got personal in Texas

ReaganOh, that's coming. Bumper, Texas is next.

Rush LindellTexas. Pull up the final polls, and the state looks like it's trying to embarrass somebody

ReaganA conservative piece on RedState written on Election Day lays out the split. It says The New York Times and Siena had Talarico up fifty to forty-three

Rush LindellSeven points in Texas. Somebody check the thermostat in that call center

ReaganAnd it says Atlas Intel had him up about six. Same direction, nearly the same cushion

Rush LindellSo two polls agree. Why am I not nodding?

ReaganBecause the author isn't nodding either. The piece argues Atlas is flawed. It points to a sample of adults, not likely voters, and to a thirty-eight point independent swing

Rush LindellThirty-eight. Oh, man, hold on. What does that even mean?

ReaganI can only tell you what the piece says. It uses that swing as evidence the pollster is unreliable. And Rush, that's one columnist's opinion on Election Day. It's a prediction, not a result

Rush LindellFair, but it tells you exactly who the right distrusts and why

ReaganSure, and I'll concede the other side's best point. Two different pollsters landing on a Talarico lead isn't nothing

Rush LindellConceded and ignored. My gut on the picks we signed last week hasn't moved an inch

ReaganYour gut. Mine is arithmetic. I took the signed Senate calls from the polling averages and the fundamentals, and I'd rather be wrong by the numbers than right by a feeling

Rush LindellYou would rather be wrong?

ReaganWrong with a paper trail, then I can find the error

Rush LindellShe wants a forensic accountant for her own funeral

ReaganSo what proves you wrong, Rush?

Rush LindellA blowout. If the Senate Toss-Ups all break the same way, one direction in one night, my gut is cooked. Gut can survive one miss. It can't survive a sweep

ReaganMine breaks differently. If the polls miss together, all of them, in the same direction, then my math was just a nicer looking guess

Rush LindellTogether, that's the word

ReaganBecause a miss in one state is noise. A miss everywhere is a method problem

Rush LindellFair test. Write it down so neither of us can run from it later

ReaganIt's written. That's the whole point of the ink

Rush LindellBumper. Next, the early vote hype and the number everyone keeps repeating

ReaganThe big one. Fifty-some million and counting.

Rush LindellFifty-seven million. Say it slowly. Fifty-seven million Americans voted before Election Day even got its coat on. The people have spoken, Reagan, and they spoke early

ReaganHmm. Where does the fifty-seven come from?

Rush LindellEverywhere. It's all over the place

ReaganThat's not a source, Rush. One early vote tracker dated November third counts about fifty-four and a half million ballots. That's across forty-seven reporting states

Rush LindellFifty-four, fifty-seven. Rounding error between friends

ReaganClose, not equal. And the tracker says itself it isn't an official tally, so the counts aren't final

Rush LindellFine. Oh, man. You're gonna make me footnote a rally cry

ReaganThe split is about twenty-six million by mail and about twenty-eight million in person

Rush LindellIn person. So the mail-in crowd isn't even the majority. Write that down

ReaganNoted

Rush LindellForty-seven states reporting. That's nearly the whole map, Reagan. Close enough to call it everybody

ReaganNearly isn't everybody, and a tracker isn't a tally. Both of those caveats travel with the number

Rush LindellYou'd put a caveat on a birthday cake

ReaganIf the candles were still being counted, yes

Rush LindellFine. Fifty-four and a half million, asterisk attached, and counting

ReaganBetter. Counting is not the same as counted

Rush LindellNow, the party numbers. Hold on. You ready for this? Among states that report party, registered Democrats cast forty point one percent of early ballots

ReaganAnd Republicans?

Rush LindellThirty-three point zero. Seven points. Reagan, that's a Democratic wave in a bow

ReaganRegistered Democrats, Rush. Registration is how someone signed up, not how they voted

Rush LindellOh, so the Democrats are just roaming the polling places in disguise?

ReaganPeople cross over every cycle

Rush LindellOkay. Okay. But turnout, the big one. Al Jazeera pointed to a University of Florida analysis, more than fifty million early votes by Sunday, November first

ReaganIn Texas?

Rush LindellOver seven million early votes in Texas, about a million and a half more than in twenty twenty-two. That's a stampede

ReaganIt is. Texas is also the state where we just spent a segment arguing over polls

Rush LindellDon't remind me. A stampede of voters is a stampede for my side

ReaganWhich side? Al Jazeera's own line is that early ballots show turnout, not who won

Rush LindellNo. No. No. Surely that many people-

ReaganNobody has opened the ballots, Rush. A big number tells you people showed up. It doesn't tell you who they showed up for. Seven million in Texas could be a Republican wall or a Talarico surge

Rush LindellUgh

ReaganSay it

Rush LindellFine. Turnout isn't a result. I've been doing this a long time, and I just got fact-checked by a spreadsheet

ReaganGently

Rush LindellGently with a clipboard. Bumper. Sponsor break, and then the pollsters we doubted, who will not be getting a clipboard from me. Reagan, I've got a new pollster for you. Brand new. I call him Mapquest Murray

ReaganIs this a real person?

Rush LindellNo, it's a method. Pure invention. You ready?

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellBig glossy map, every state colored in by Tuesday morning. You ask how he sampled it, and he says, "Which result do you prefer?"

ReaganFlexible.

Rush LindellFlexible. His likely voters are whoever agrees with him. When he misses, the weighting was off. When he hits, it's genius.

ReaganAnd the margin of error is whatever fits on the chyron.

Rush LindellOh, that's good. Steal that. I'm stealing that.

ReaganFine, but the joke has a real target. Final Senate polls this year pulled in different directions, and that's a sourcing problem.

Rush LindellSay more.

ReaganA red state commentary from election day, so opinion and prediction, not results, says the final Senate polls diverge, and the right is already fighting over which pollsters to trust.

Rush LindellSo let's name names. Atlas Intel goes on my doubted list, because I don't buy who it counts as a voter. Insider Advantage goes on it too, and I'll own the sneer.

ReaganThen say what clears them. If the count lands near where they put it, your doubt was just attitude. If it lands far off, you earned it.

Rush LindellFair. Doubt isn't a verdict, only the count is.

ReaganAgreed. Both stay on the list until the votes come in.

Rush LindellTwo doubted pollsters, two asterisks. And speaking of things that ought to carry the fine print, my friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price.

ReaganBelow spot?

Rush LindellThat's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganOkay, what else do people need to know?

Rush LindellHere's what you need to know. Priced below spot, Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, new customers only, free shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganWhy is that rare?

Rush LindellBecause spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganAnd it's not some obscure piece of metal.

Rush LindellNo, the silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .99 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganWhere do people go?

Rush LindellGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganOkay. Atlas Intel and InsiderAdvantage, doubted until the count says otherwise.

Rush LindellRight. Bumper, now the house call we signed, and the election night coverage.

ReaganThe one with the signature on it.

Rush LindellOkay. The house call, the one we signed last week in ink with our names on it.

ReaganThe pick we signed. I'm noticing you didn't say the number.

Rush LindellBecause the number is coming at the verdict, Reagan, not before. Now, election night. Have you seen how this stuff gets covered?

ReaganI've seen NPR's guide. Stephen Fowler wrote it, and it sorts the House races to watch into four types.

Rush LindellFour types.

ReaganFour. The idea is that the early results in those races help explain how the midterms are unfolding.

Rush LindellOh, I love that. It's a field guide. Bird watching, but the birds are in swing districts, and they're angry.

ReaganIt's actually useful, Rush. You watch a few bellwether races instead of staring at all 435 at once.

Rush LindellFine, I'll give you that one. NPR gets a gold star.

ReaganDon't get used to it.

Rush LindellHold on. Then there's the live blogs. CBS had one running on election day. Fox had one too. House, Senate, governors, all of it, one scrolling page.

ReaganAnd both opened before most polls even closed.

Rush LindellRight. A live blog at breakfast. What's happening? Nothing. Here's an update on nothing. Refresh for more nothing.

ReaganTo be fair, a page like that is handy if you're tracking a particular race. I use them.

Rush LindellYou use them like a smoke alarm. You don't stare at the alarm all day.

ReaganI stare at it a little.

Rush LindellAnd the real sin is the call it early habit. Some anchor with a decimal point of data and a dream calls a race. Then the votes show up and ruin the party.

ReaganThat one's fair. A call is a claim, and a claim should carry its evidence. Early on, the evidence is thin.

Rush LindellThin? It's see-through. You could read a newspaper through it.

ReaganAnd there's a cost. Call a race early, and you teach viewers to trust the call over the count.

Rush LindellTrust the call over the count. Somebody stitch that on a pillow.

ReaganWhich is the standard we applied to ourselves. We signed ours before any of it, and no network gets to grade us on a curve.

Rush LindellNo curve, no chyron, just the ink.

ReaganThen let's go see how the ink held up.

Rush LindellBumper. Time for the verdict. Scorecard time. No goalposts, no asterisks. Gut calls on one side of the page, Reagans math calls on the other.

ReaganAnd I'm keeping the pen. Nobody grades themselves generously on my watch, Rush, including me.

Rush LindellHere's what the tally counts. Three buckets, all signed last week: Ohio, the Senate toss-ups, and the House. Each call is right or wrong. One line, winner, and party. Gut calls get one column. Math calls get the other.

ReaganThen let's judge what each of us stood on. Mine rested on polling averages and fundamentals. Yours rested on how red states behave and a feel for the room.

Rush LindellFeel for the room. Thank you for saying it nicely.

ReaganI'll go further. Your instinct about turnout energy is the kind of thing my spreadsheets are thin on. Models don't smell a mood. Sometimes you do, annoyingly.

Rush LindellSay that again, slower.

ReaganNo.

Rush LindellFine. My turn to pay up. The polls kept me honest. Every time I got loud, a number tapped me on the shoulder Reagan's method gave her something to check, and mine gave me something to defend.

ReaganThat's the real difference. A gut call can't be audited until the count. A math call can be audited the moment it's wrong.

Rush LindellSo here's my verdict on method. Gut is faster and braver. Math is slower and easier to correct. Neither one earns a trophy until the votes are counted.

ReaganI'll sign that. Nothing is scored until the count is in, and both of us are on the hook for every line in the ink.

Rush LindellWhich means the real winner is whoever reads this scorecard more fairly than we did. That's you. Yes, you, one listener in the car yelling at the radio. You decide.

ReaganVote on who won, Rush's gut or my math. Pick one. No hedging, no partial credit.

Rush LindellOne line each. Mine, instinct calls the winners, and winners are the whole point of an election.

ReaganMine, a call you can't measure is a lucky guess, and luck doesn't repeat.

Rush LindellLucky guess. She says it to my face.

ReaganWith love and a clipboard-sized footnote.

Rush LindellCast your vote. Bumper, we're out.

ReaganSign off then. Go judge us.

Rush LindellReagan, one thing before the lights go down. Everything we said today is signed in ink. Ink doesn't smudge, ink doesn't have a plan B, and ink is going to be sitting in this archive when I'm 90.

Reagan90? Optimistic.

Rush LindellI'm a man of conviction.

ReaganYou are, and here's mine briefly. The best thing about writing a pick down is that it can't flatter you later. Whoever's right tonight, the paper doesn't care how they feel about it.

Rush LindellMm, I hate how fair that is.

ReaganSo the listeners decide who won, Rush's gut or Reagan's math. Send your vote in and be brutal. We can take it.

Rush LindellSpeak for yourself. I've got a tender ego and a very large microphone.

ReaganIf you like the show, subscribe, leave us a five-star review, and tell a friend. New episodes every weekday.

Rush LindellAnd if you vote for Reagan, I'll know. I keep a list in ink.

ReaganBumper, please.