Thursday: Vance Says the War Lost Us Congress

Rush LindellThe vice president of the United States stood up the morning after and said, quote, "The reason we lost is the war." Seven words, no hedge in any of them.

ReaganSeven words, Rush, and not one of them is maybe.

Rush LindellThat's my kind of sentence. Oh man, I've waited all night for this.

ReaganRush, it's Thursday. We both slept, barely.

Rush LindellFine. I'm Rush Limbaugh. That's Reagan, and this is the show where we own our own homework.

ReaganCBS News carried that Vance line, and he went further. He dared anyone to argue that losing the Senate for six years was worth it.

Rush LindellSix years? Dude.

ReaganAnd Variety reported that Democrats took the Senate and the House both, calling it a broad backlash against Donald Trump.

Rush LindellBoth chambers, no asterisk.

ReaganWhich brings us to the rules. Our picks are signed, so nobody gets to quietly edit the card. We grade them in public, gut against math, and neither of us hedges.

Rush LindellWait for it, listener. My gut has a lot to answer for.

ReaganMine too. Math isn't spotless either, so nobody gets to gloat early.

Rush LindellBrought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

ReaganGold doesn't care who won the Senate.

Rush LindellHit the bumper. First, the damage report. Seven. Democrats flipped seven Senate seats: Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina, Kansas. Read that list slowly, because CNBC's results roundup did, and it added the line that matters. Republicans flipped none.

ReaganZero. Not one seat going the other way.

Rush LindellAnd counting was still going as of Wednesday. Oh man, Reagan, South Carolina, I'm still staring at it.

ReaganBefore you cry, the scoreboard. NBC News projects a 54-44 Democratic Senate. That's after a net gain of seven.

Rush Lindell54. That's not a wave. That's a flood warning with a marching band. I keep recounting it on my fingers, and it keeps coming out the same.

ReaganTwo races are still open, though. NBC says Alaska and Mississippi are too close to call, so neither one gets graded today.

Rush LindellWait, how close?

ReaganAlaska had Peltola at 48.2 and Sullivan at 47.9, with about three-quarters reporting. Mississippi, Colom edged Hyde-Smith by a tenth of a point.

Rush LindellA tenth. Fine, those go in the incomplete pile. I refuse to take credit or blame for a coin flip.

ReaganConvenient. Now grade your signed Senate picks, Rush, out loud.

Rush LindellOkay. My Senate card was gut over math, and the gut undersold this thing. I saw a hard night for Republicans. I did not see seven flips and a 54-seat floor. Grade, a miss on the size of it, and I own it. No asterisk, no weather excuse.

ReaganThank you. That is the first time you've said miss without a speech attached.

Rush LindellMm. Don't get used to it. Your turn. Where's the math?

ReaganMine ran the numbers on the map. It pointed the right direction, and it still missed the scale. A model is only as good as what you feed it, and I fed it a Republican map that held up better than the real one did.

Rush LindellOh, the spreadsheet bleeds. Right direction, which is what people say right before they admit they were wrong.

ReaganFair. Direction earns partial credit. Partial credit is not a hit, and I'm not going to dress it up as one.

Rush LindellSo gut got the mood, math got the arrows, and neither of us got the margin.

ReaganAnd that's the clue about the night, Rush. When the whole map moves at once, nobody's individual calls look good, including the ones we were proud of.

Rush LindellThat we're both bad at this?

ReaganThat when seven seats flip and none go back the other way, the map was misread, not just ours.

Rush LindellLet me say what that means for the ledger. Senate, both of us in the miss column on scale. Put it in ink.

ReaganIn ink, and no fair blaming the two races still open. They don't rescue either card.

Rush LindellFair. Ouch, but fair. Bumper, Senate graded, and we're both bruised. Now the House, and Ohio, where somebody's gonna have to eat a Ramaswamy pick. House first. CNBC's results roundup says Democrats flipped nearly 30 House districts.

ReaganAnd Republicans?

Rush LindellZero. Counting was still underway when CNBC wrote it, so that number could move. The Republican column will not.

ReaganA big fat donut.

Rush LindellReagan, I signed a pick on the House, and it was the wrong side of this, flat wrong. No excuses. I'm not hunting for an excuse. I'm not looking under couch cushions.

ReaganI'll grade mine. I leaned the right way on the House, and I'll take credit for the direction. Credit to the other side, they read the mood correctly. Their candidates didn't need a miracle. They needed a pulse and a ballot line.

Rush LindellOuch.

ReaganIt's fair, but direction isn't scale. I never imagined a sweep that wide, so I'd call it a B+ and not an A.

Rush LindellB+ for hedging. Noted.

ReaganIt isn't a hedge if it pointed the right way.

Rush LindellThen let's set a rule for the ledger so nobody games it later. Right direction earns partial credit. Right size earns the full grade.

ReaganAgreed, and that rule cuts against me as much as you. Counting is still underway, so even my House grade on scale could shift when the final numbers land.

Rush LindellSo your B+ has an expiration date?

ReaganEvery grade tonight does, if the count moves.

Rush LindellFine. Ohio? Wait for it.

ReaganGo.

Rush LindellNBC's Live Ohio page, as of November fifth, has Amy Acton at 52.3%.

ReaganAnd Vivek Ramaswamy?

Rush Lindell44.4. About an eight-point gap.

ReaganEight. In Ohio.

Rush LindellAxios reported she's the first woman ever elected governor of the state. First one in the whole history of Ohio.

ReaganWhich is worth sitting with. A first like that deserves its own moment before we hurry past it to our scorecards.

Rush LindellAgreed. Credit where it's due. Nobody in Ohio had done it before, and she did it on this ballot.

ReaganI'll concede something. Acton ran a disciplined race, and I underrated her. My Ohio pick was the wrong one.

Rush LindellMine was wrong, too, and I wasn't shy about it when I signed it. I made that pick with a perfectly straight face.

ReaganNo, you weren't shy.

Rush LindellHere's the detail I keep coming back to. Ohio also shows up on the Senate flip list, remember? Same state, same night, two races.

ReaganBoth moving the same direction. Voters weren't splitting tickets to make either of us look smart.

Rush LindellRude, but accurate. Okay. House, wrong. Ohio, wrong. I take it on the chin. Done. Grade delivered. Nothing to appeal.

ReaganNo asterisk?

Rush LindellZero. So the picks are graded. Bumper. Now the question that matters. Why? Reagan, we touched on Vance's dare in the cold open, so I won't read it to you twice. What I wanna chew on is who it's aimed at.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellCBS News reported that Vance dared people to argue the war was worth losing the Senate for six years. Dared who? Not the Democrats. They're busy celebrating.

ReaganHmm. That's the right question. The people who wanted the war are in his party, not the other one.

Rush LindellExactly. That's the confession. He's daring his own side to defend it with a straight face. I'm calling him Mr. Told You So.

ReaganOf course you are.

Rush LindellWait, there's more. The Washington Post reported that after Vance and others in the GOP blamed the war for the rout, Trump agreed.

ReaganTrump agreed?

Rush LindellThe war angered voters. He conceded it, and then said he would do it again.

ReaganSeriously?

Rush LindellWould do it again. Picture a guy who just drove into a ditch, climbs out, says the ditch is why he's late, and announces he's taking the same road tomorrow.

ReaganOkay, that's good. I'll give you the ditch.

Rush LindellI'll take it.

ReaganBut notice the order of events. Vance and others in the party blame the war first, and then the president signs onto the blame, but not to the lesson. Agreeing it hurt is not the same as agreeing it was a mistake.

Rush LindellThat's the whole trick of it. Concede the damage, keep the policy.

ReaganWhich brings me back to what Vance is actually diagnosing. A dare is not a diagnosis. What exactly is he diagnosing?

Rush LindellThe war. He said it plainly.

ReaganHe said the war cost the Senate. Fine. Is it the war itself? Is it what the war did to prices? Is it how the war was sold? Those are three different diseases with three different cures, and a voter can be angry about any one of them without being angry about the other two.

Rush LindellYou're doing the nuance thing.

ReaganI'm doing the thing where a doctor asks where it hurts. And there's another question. If the vice president says the war lost the Senate, and the president says he'd do it again, who exactly is the party supposed to listen to?

Rush LindellOh. Oh, that's a good one. Two men, one ballroom, zero agreement.

ReaganAnd only one of them is on a ballot in 2028.

Rush LindellHold on. Now you're reading minds.

ReaganI'm reading a calendar.

Rush LindellFair. Fair, but a confession is only worth something if it checks out.

ReaganWhich means we check it.

Rush LindellBumper. Now the numbers. Does the data back him? Reagan, I'll give you the number first, and then I'll gloat. CNBC's voter poll found 74% of voters called the Iran war a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote.

Reagan74. I'll let that sit for a second.

Rush LindellThree out of four. That's not a rounding error. That's a landslide inside the landslide. Mr. Told You So is sitting in the Naval Observatory right now polishing a trophy.

ReaganWait. I'll concede the number's big. It is. But a crucial or major factor is a wide door. Somebody can tick that box and still be mad about groceries.

Rush LindellOh, here we go.

ReaganAnd CNBC's own reporting says the war and gas prices are tangled together. Gas averaged $4.15 a gallon on Election Day.

Rush LindellWhich is the war.

ReaganIs it, or is it the pump, and the war is the name people give the pump?

Rush LindellHold on. Oil doesn't spike because of vibes. Missiles go up, prices go up. You fill your tank, you see the war every single time you swipe the card.

ReaganSure. So the war is real, and it's wearing the gas price as a costume. Fine. But then Vance is half right, and half right is how you lose a Senate.

Rush LindellHalf right is more than the rest of that party managed.

ReaganThen look at the NBC News exit poll, because it wasn't asking only about Iran. Nearly eight in 10 said inflation is causing their families hardship.

Rush LindellEight in 10.

ReaganAnd a majority, 57%, said Trump's immigration enforcement has gone too far.

Rush LindellOkay. That one stings.

ReaganA majority also objected to the Iran war. A majority. Not three out of four. So the war is one pile in a very big heap.

Rush LindellFine, but you're stacking piles so nobody has to own the biggest one.

ReaganThen name the biggest one with the data. You can't, can you? Because the exit poll doesn't rank them.

Rush LindellIt doesn't need to rank them. The war touches the prices. It touches the Fed. It touches the whole mood.

ReaganNow that's an argument. Say that one out loud on the air and I'll defend you.

Rush LindellThe war is the match. Prices are the dry grass. Take the match away and maybe nothing burns.

ReaganMaybe. Except the exit poll also had Trump's approval at the lowest of any sitting president on election day in nearly two decades.

Rush LindellNearly two decades. Ouch.

ReaganThat's a verdict on the man, Rush, not only on one decision he made.

Rush LindellWonderful. Everybody gets a trophy, and nobody gets blamed.

ReaganThe data backs Vance in part. The rest, he's leaving off the page, and I wanna know why he's leaving it off, because a partial diagnosis is a very convenient one.

Rush LindellOh, I have theories, and they're ugly. Bumper. Time for the mid-show parody, and then a word from our sponsor. Reagan, I've got a bit. Mid-show parody. You're the chair.

ReaganOf what?

Rush LindellThe Select Committee on Why It Wasn't Us. Gavel, please. Order. First witness, the consultant.

ReaganFine. The consultant says the polling was perfect. The voters were the error.

Rush LindellWe told them to be a different electorate. They declined.

ReaganNext witness, the weather.

Rush LindellOh, man. It's always the weather. It drizzled in a precinct somewhere, and that's your seven seats right there.

ReaganThe candidate takes the stand.

Rush LindellI did not lose. I was outvoted by a surge of people I had not met.

ReaganAnd the pundit?

Rush LindellUgh. The pundit says he predicted this, loudly, last Tuesday after lunch. He'd like it noted he was early, not wrong.

ReaganCommittee finds no one responsible and recommends everyone keep doing exactly what they were doing. Adjourned.

Rush LindellUnanimous, which is the only unanimous thing this month.

ReaganOkay, that one stung. Because I'd have to subpoena us.

Rush LindellWe already testified. Signed pics, remember? Speaking of things you signed for, Silver.

ReaganOf course.

Rush LindellMy friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce Silver American Eagle below spot price.

ReaganBelow spot?

Rush LindellThat's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes. Priced below spot, Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands.

ReaganCatch?

Rush LindellLimit one per person, new customers only, free shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganWhy is that rare?

Rush LindellBecause spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganI'll admit, I like a coin I can hold.

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA-eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganWhere do they go?

Rush LindellGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.com.

ReaganBumper. Back to the fight over who gets the blame.

Rush LindellAnd this time, nobody gets the weather. Reagan, I'll say it flat. The war is the cause. Vance says it, other Republicans say it, and Trump himself said it angered voters, then said he'd do it again. When the man at the top agrees with the diagnosis, who am I to argue?

ReaganYou're the guy who's been arguing for 10 minutes.

Rush LindellFair.

ReaganHere's my problem. Vance can be honest and still be auditioning. Those aren't exclusive. A man can tell the truth and notice the truth happens to point at someone else's mess.

Rush LindellOh, that's cold.

ReaganIt's arithmetic. If the war is the villain, the war belongs to Trump's column, and Vance gets to be the heir who saw it coming.

Rush LindellSo honest and ambitious, both.

ReaganBoth. Most politicians are.

Rush LindellHold on. Then why isn't the war enough? 74%, that's the CNBC voter poll number, the share who called it a crucial or major factor in their congressional vote.

ReaganAnd CNBC also has gas at 4.15 on election day. Pump and war arrive in the same bill, Rush. You can't hand the war every vote and the gas station none.

Rush LindellOkay, but the Fed. Somebody has to say the Fed.

ReaganSay it. I can't find a voter in the NBC News exit poll naming it. What they named was prices. Nearly eight in 10 said inflation is hurting their family.

Rush LindellHmm. Prices. I'll have to sit with that one.

ReaganAnd NBC's exit poll has 57% saying immigration enforcement went too far. That's a whole separate complaint, and it has nothing to do with Tehran.

Rush LindellSo the war gets a seat at the table, not the head of it.

ReaganA big seat, maybe the biggest. I'd just say the polls don't let you crown it.

Rush LindellAnd the candidates? Come on. Some of these folks couldn't win a raffle at their own church.

ReaganSome, I'll give you that one. Candidate quality shows up in margins, and neither poll measures it, so we're both guessing.

Rush LindellI never guess. I know, and sometimes I'm wrong.

ReaganYour Ledger said so.

Rush LindellOuch. Fine. Vance gets a B for diagnosis, an A for timing.

ReaganGenerous. A B for diagnosis still means he left most of the exam blank.

Rush LindellBumper. Last call. Time to score it. Final tally, one line each. Mine, wrong on the House, wrong on Ohio, a miss on Senate scale. Zero for three on the big ones. Put it on the wall.

ReaganMine is cleaner, but not clean. Right direction, wrong scale, and a miss is still a miss.

Rush LindellHere's the lesson I'm taking. Next time, I assign a margin, not just a winner. Picking a side is the easy part. Picking the size is where the gut gets exposed.

ReaganThat's a better rule than anything I wrote down this week. Now say the best thing I said. Go ahead.

Rush LindellReagan, your best point, a diagnosis can be honest and still be a campaign ad. I hated it. It was correct.

ReaganThank you. And yours. Rush, you were right that voters wanted somebody to pay for the war. You said it before the polls did, and I was slow to give you that.

Rush LindellWrite that down, folks. Frame it.

ReaganAlready did, in ink.

Rush LindellSo here's the vote, and you, the one listener in your car, you're the jury. Was my postmortem more honest, war first, no hedging, or Reagan's, many causes and one very careful asterisk?

ReaganBe fair to both of us. Pick on honesty, not on who you'd rather have dinner with.

Rush LindellShe says that because she's nervous. Cast your vote.

ReaganBumper into the sign-off.

Rush LindellReagan, you get the last word. Keep it short. You always make it fair. It's exhausting.

ReaganShort version, nobody got to hide behind the weather.

Rush LindellFine. Back to where we started. Vance said the reason we lost is the war. You heard the evidence. So vote. Did the war explain it, or was it a bigger bill than that? Tell us who won, and tell us loud, wherever you're listening.

ReaganIf you're keeping score at home, we'd both rather be wrong in public than right in private.

Rush LindellSpeak for yourself. Subscribe, leave a five-star review, and tell a friend who still thinks it was the weather. New episodes every weekday.

ReaganMm, talk to you tomorrow.

Rush LindellDon't. That still stings.

ReaganThen vote gently.