Markets, Missiles, and a Medical Warning: Your Saturday Morning Rundown

Maya: All right. Good morning and welcome to the Morning Rundown. I'm here with David and wow, do we have a packed Friday for you. David: Yeah, no slow news day here. Not even close. Maya: So here's the thing. Markets got absolutely crushed yesterday. The Nasdaq dropped 4.2%. The Dow fell 695 points. Speaker 3: Wow. Maya: That's the worst session in over a year. David: And it wasn't random. A hot jobs report basically killed any hope of a Fed rate cut. Cut, yield spiked, and tech stocks paid the price. Maya: We'll dig into all of that plus Trump is floating a government stake in top AI companies, which I mean, come on, there's a lot to unpack there. David: Follow the money on that one. Maya: Right. And Google is cutting a deal to pay SpaceX nearly a billion dollars a month per month. David: Yeah, that number stopped me cold. Maya: Then we've got a full global hotspots rundown. Ukraine hit military facilities inside Russia, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes despite a ceasefire, and the Middle East is not getting quieter. David: Plus a CDC warning on the Ebola outbreak in Congo that you genuinely need to... need to hear. Maya: Big show. Let's get into it. All right. So I woke up this morning, checked my phone, and the first thing I saw was red, like everywhere. David: Yeah, not a fun Friday for anyone holding stocks. Maya: The Nasdaq dropped 4.2% yesterday. The Dow fell 695 points. Axios is calling it the worst single session in 14 months. David: And MarketWatch put it in even starker terms, biggest percentage drop since 2025 across the board. Maya: That's wild, right? Like we're not talking a minor dip. David: No, no, no. This was a proper bloodbath, and the chip sector led the way down. Maya: The chip sector specifically? Why is that? David: Here's the thing, though. You've got a jobs report that came in hotter than expected, strong job numbers sound good on the surface, but the market reads it as, the Fed has no reason to cut rates anytime soon. Maya: So good news for workers, bad news for investors. David: Basically, and Treasury yields jumped at the same time, which makes borrowing more expensive. Intensive. Tech companies, especially chip makers, are very sensitive to that. Maya: Because they carry so much debt and rely on cheap capital. David: Exactly. You price in higher rates for longer, and suddenly those future earnings aren't worth as much today. The math gets ugly fast. Maya: Okay, so the Fed is stuck again. They can't really cut with a hot jobs market without risking inflation, but holding rates is clearly spooking the market. David: Yeah, and the uncertainty is what kills you. Investors hate not knowing. That's what those yield moves are telling you. Maya: And I feel like there's another layer here because it's not just domestic. There's a lot going on globally that's already making people nervous. David: Right. Geopolitical risk is absolutely in the mix. We'll get to some of that in a minute, because there's a lot to cover on that front. Maya: There really is. But first, because I cannot let this go, Trump is apparently considering taking a government stake in top AI companies. David: Yeah. Saw that in the Washington Post. Maya: I mean, come on, a government stake in AI companies? Depending on how you look at it, that's either Washington taking the AI race seriously or something else entirely. David: Drill-y follow the money. The question I keep asking is, who benefits from that arrangement? Maya: Right? And it's interesting timing given where markets are. AI stocks just got hammered and now there's talk of the government wanting a piece of the upside? David: It raises a lot of questions about what strings come attached. Attached regulatory pressure? Influence over development decisions? Maya: Hmm, I'm not sure. I'm not sure I love that combination. David: I mean, I get why the administration wants in. AI is a national competitiveness issue at this point, not just a tech story. But a government ownership stake is a pretty big leap. Maya: Washington meeting with AI leaders to talk about this as soon as next week, according to Politico. David: So it's moving fast. Maya: Oh, and while we're on the topic of enormous amounts of money, the Wall Street Journal reported that Google is paying SpaceX nearly a billion dollars. Here's a month in a cloud computing deal. David: Wait, a month? Maya: A month. David: That's... I need a second with that number. Maya: Right? Like, the broader market is bleeding and Google's just writing billion dollar a month checks to Elon's rocket company? David: I mean, that tells you something. The big players are not slowing down their AI infrastructure spending, regardless of what the market does in a single session. Maya: Which might actually be part of what's driving the yield anxiety. All this capital pouring into tech infrastructure, the spending is massive. David: It's a lot of variables all pushing in the same direction right now. Right now, rate pressure, geopolitical tension, uncertainty around AI policy. Maya: And speaking of geopolitical tension, there is no shortage of it today, which really makes you wonder, when markets are already this jumpy from domestic data, what happens when the headlines coming out of conflict zones just keep getting worse? All right, shifting gears to what's been happening overseas because it has been a genuinely heavy week. David: Yeah, and I think the Ukraine story is the one that caught me off guard most. Maya: So the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine launched a major drone strike on Russian military facilities in St. Petersburg. David: Wow. Maya: St. Petersburg. That's not the front line. That's deep inside Russia. David: That's the part that matters. Hitting infrastructure in a major Russian city signals something. You know something? Ukraine is saying, we can reach you. Maya: And the scale matters, too. The Wall Street Journal called it one of the most significant attacks inside Russia in months. So this isn't a one-off. David: Right. And you have to think about what that does to any future negotiation table. You don't make that kind of strike if you're feeling like talks are close. Maya: No, you don't. Okay, so then there's the Iran situation, which the BBC reported on, and I want to make sure... Make sure people understand how unsettled this is. David: So the U.S. military struck Iranian drones and radar sites. Tehran then targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. That's the exchange. Maya: That's a full back and forth between the U.S. and Iran in the Gulf, while a ceasefire is supposedly in place. David: Which tells you what the ceasefire is actually worth right now. I mean, the skeptical read here is that ceasefires in that region tend to be... And to be pauses, not endings, and this one's being tested hard. Maya: Yeah. The conservative instinct on this, and I think it's the right one, is that U.S. commitments in the region have to be credible. You can't let drone strikes and radar targeting just slide. David: Exactly. And if adversaries read hesitation, that's when things escalate further. So there's an argument the strikes were necessary, but it also means the ceasefire framing is doing a lot of work that the reality doesn't support. Maya: Yeah, the gap between what's being called a ceasefire and what's actually happening on the ground is pretty wide. David: And then there's Lebanon. Maya: AP News. and The Guardian both cover this. Israel struck southern Lebanon again days after a new ceasefire deal. Nine people killed, including three Lebanese military members, one of them a brigadier general. David: The Israeli military said the vehicle was moving suspiciously, and Lebanon's government is pushing back hard on that. Maya: And then separately from The Guardian, a seven-month-old Palestinian baby was shot and killed by Israeli troops in the West Bank. West Bank, the child was in his mother's arms in Hebron. David: Yeah, that one is just awful. Whatever your view on the broader conflict, that's a seven-month-old. Maya: There is no framing that makes that okay. The family was in Hebron. The Guardian named the child Sam Fahd Abu Haikal. David: Yeah. What strikes me, stepping back, is that every one of these situations—Ukraine, Iran, Lebanon, the West Bank— They're all testing some kind of agreed upon framework that was supposed to hold, and none of them are. Maya: Right. And markets picked up on that anxiety, too, which connects back to what we talked about earlier. David: Geopolitical instability is its own kind of economic variable. It doesn't show up clean in a report, but it's there. Maya: And it's not just geopolitics keeping officials up at night, because coming up, the CDC is sounding some serious alarms and not not just about what's happening overseas. Okay, shifting gears completely. Let's talk health, because there's a lot going on. David: Yeah, and some of it is genuinely alarming. The CDC is warning that the Congo Ebola outbreak could rival the worst on record. Maya: The worst on record. Like, that's not a small statement. David: Not at all. The CDC's modeling says if the world doesn't move fast, cases could top 20,000 in the next three months. The Washington Post and NPR both had that number this morning. Maya: And the frustrating part is we have vaccines. We know how to contain Ebola. The question is always whether the global response actually shows up in time. David: Right, and historically it often doesn't. The window to contain something like this is short, and these early weeks matter enormously. Maya: So that one is very much a watch this space situation. Okay, measles. David: Measles. So ABC News is reporting U.S. measles cases have now passed 2,000 for the second year in a row. 2,000 in 38 states and D.C. Maya: A number that ten years ago would have seemed completely unthinkable. David: Exactly. Measles was essentially eliminated in this country in 2000, and now we're seeing these numbers two years running. That's not a blip. That's a trend. Maya: And I think it connects to something bigger. Right? Public health infrastructure. Vaccine rates dropping. The trust issues? David: Yeah, I mean, the infrastructure piece is real. When you let vaccine coverage slip below a certain threshold, you lose herd immunity, and Maya: Yeah. David: measles is one of the most contagious things we know of. It doesn't take much. Maya: It really doesn't. Okay, last one, and this one is different. David: Is this the Worm? Maya: This is the worm. The New York Times is reporting... According to Texas is racing to contain the first U.S. screw worm case since the 1960s. David: Since the 1960s? Maya: Yes, and if you don't know what a screw worm is, consider yourself lucky. It's a parasite that burrows into living tissue, mostly livestock, but it can affect humans too. David: So how does it come back after 60 years? Maya: That's the question. Officials think it came in through livestock from Central America, and the concern is it spreads fast if it gets a foothold. David: Hmm. So we've got a potential Ebola crisis in Congo, measles surging domestically, and a 1960s parasite making a comeback in Texas. Maya: Great week for public health. David: It really is. Keep an eye on all three of these. The Ebola situation especially could move fast in the coming weeks. Maya: A lot to watch. All right, that's the rundown for today. A lot to sit with. David: Yeah, markets bleeding, ceasefire that isn't really a ceasefire, and that moment with a seven-year-old in the West Bank. That one just stays with you. Maya: It does. Whatever side you're on, that's just a baby. David: And then you've got Trump floating government stakes in AI companies. The strings-attached question is not going away. Maya: Not even a little. Look, if today gave you something to think about, share it. Tell a friend. Leave us a review if you've got two minutes. David: Seriously, it helps more than you think. Maya: Thanks for spending your morning with us. We'll see you Monday. David: Take care, everyone.