Jordyn: Welcome to Listing Price. I'm here with David and, OK, we need to talk about a tax deadline that is 41 days away. David: June 30th, circle it. On a $10 million Bel Air sale, that single calendar day is the difference between a $550,000 ULA bill and, well, still enormous, but differently enormous. Jordyn: Right, and then there's the Howard Jarvis ballot measure that just got certified for November, which if it... If it passes, slashes that same bill to around $5,000. David: $5,000 on a $10 million sale? Jordyn: 5,000. So sellers are staring at close before June 30th or certainty, or gamble on November. That's the whole episode. David: No pressure. Jordyn: None at all. And before we get there, Freddie Freeman, Dodgers first baseman, bought a Studio City place in 2023 for $7. $1.8 million, sold it for $6.45 million, already down $1.35 million, and then ULA hit him for another $258,000 on the gross sale price. David: On a loss, the tax doesn't care if you made money. Jordyn: Total Damage North of $2 Million Speaker 3: Great tax. Jordyn: Okay, so get this. We've got three years of ULA data, over a billion dollars collected, but UCLA research shows transaction volumes down somewhere between 38 and 50 percent, and City Journal is reporting the tax is falling well short of its annual projections. David: So it raised a billion, but maybe cost more in lost revenue. lost transactions in future property tax. Jordyn: That is exactly the question we're going to dig into. June 30th is the clock. Let's get into it. Okay, so get this. One address, Bel Air, $10 million. And if that deal closes on July 1st instead of June 30th, the seller rates an extra $550,000 to the city for nothing. David: For nothing? Jordyn: For literally nothing. The house doesn't change, the buyer doesn't change-one calendar day. David: So, Jordyn, walk me through exactly what's happening here, because we should be precise. Jordyn: Right, so according to the LA city finance office, effective July 1st the ULA thresholds reset: five point four million for the four percent tier, ten point nine million for the five point five percent tier, adjusted going forward by the BLS chained CPI. Speaker 4: i. Jordyn: CPI. David: And wait, so the thresholds are going up, not down, which means that's Jordyn: Which means waiting costs you more. David: the thing people are getting backwards. They hear the numbers are changing and assume maybe there's relief coming. No, the bar just moved higher, but you're still paying 5.5% above it. Jordyn: On a $10 million sale, the ULA hit alone is $550,000. Stack the base city transfer tax. x 0.45% plus the L.A. County documentary tax, you're looking at roughly $595,000 just in transfer taxes. David: More than half a million dollars in transfer taxes on one transaction. Jordyn: And here's the spread that breaks my brain. The Howard Jarvis statewide initiative on the November ballot, per LAist, would cap transfer taxes at roughly 100 times lower than UCLA's. highest top rate. David: Meaning on that same $10 million Bel Air sale. Jordyn: $5,000 versus $550,000. That's your November variable. David: According to analysis from Reed Court Tax, that's a more than 99% reduction in the transfer tax bite. So you're telling me the difference between June 30th and July 1st is $550,000 and the difference between today and November is also potentially $550,000? 145 grand? Jordyn: Yeah, yeah, yeah. The whole calendar is a tax decision right now. David: CalMatters reported in January that the city council punted on any UCLA rewrite, no reforms on the June ballot, the tax stays exactly as written until voters say otherwise. Jordyn: So the only question is, has this tax actually done what voters were promised? Because the headline says $1 billion collected. The actual annual number tells a very different story. story. So, the headline number sounds good – one billion dollars collected since April 2023. City-Journal covered this, and it's real money that built real housing programs. David: Wait, but here's the thing. The city projected $600 million to $1.1 billion per year. Actual fiscal year 2024 collections? $296.7 million. That's less than half of the floor. Right, and supporters say the tax is working, but the data... Data gets ugly fast. Speaker 5: How ugly? David: Emphasis. UCLA's Lewis Center found that commercial property sales in Los Angeles fell by up to 50% after ULA took effect. The odds of any transaction closing above the 5 million threshold dropped by roughly 50% too. Speaker 5: Wow. 50% on both counts. David: Yeah, and there's a separate study: Harvard, UC Irvine, UC San Diego found ULA reduced eligible property transactions citywide. Divide by thirty eight per cent. Speaker 5: Okay, but, David, I'd push back a little. A billion dollars is still a billion dollars that funded real tenant protections, real affordable units. David: Sure; except-and this is the Prop 13 kicker-every sale that doesn't happen is a reassessment that doesn't happen. The Harvard team estimated lost property tax revenue offset somewhere between sixty three per cent and a hundred and thirty eight per cent of what ULA actually collect. Speaker 6: Oh! David: Collected. Jordyn: Wait, wait, wait. So at the high end, the city could be losing more in future property taxes than it's gaining from the transfer tax? David: That's the argument, and the UCLA RAND estimate adds another layer: 1,910 fewer apartment units delivered per year because developers won't touch deals above the threshold. Jordyn: So you tax the transactions that build new housing to fund housing. David: Correct. Jordyn: I mean... I mean, that's a design flaw. David: It's Prop 13 interacting with a transfer tax, freeze the sales, freeze the reassessments, shrink the entire property tax base. The revenue math just collapses. Jordyn: And that's exactly the story we're going to feel in a very personal way in our next segment, because this isn't just abstract math on apartment buildings. David: Uh-huh. Jordyn: It's hitting individual sellers who lost money on their homes and still owe six figures to the city. City. Now flip that data on its his head and make it a face. Freddie Freeman, World Series Hero, six-year, $162 million contract, and he got absolutely wrecked by ULA. David: WRECKED IS GENEROUS Jordyn: Okay, so get this. Freeman bought a house in Studio City in 2023 for $7.8 million, a double A-frame, gated, 6,000-square-feet, the works. He sells it for $6.45 million. David: Already down $1.35 million before anything? Jordyn: Before anything. Then ULA hits. According to Jeremy Padawers' breakdown on X, that's 4% on the gross sale price, $258,000 to the city. David: On a sale where he lost money. Jordyn: Correct. The city does not care. Commissions ate another $387,000. Closing costs, $32,000. Total selling costs around $677,000. David: So all in, he's passed. Jordyn: $2 million gone, according to Yahoo Sports reporting on the numbers. David: And that's the whole mechanic, right? ULA is calculated on the gross sales price, not profit, not equity, the full number. Jordyn: This is where it gets good, because that's exactly why Bel Air and the Bird Streets are frozen right now, owners who bought at 2021 and 2022. To peak prices are under water or barely above water. David: Right, so you're not selling to avoid a loss; you're not selling to avoid the tax on top of the loss! Jordyn: It's stacks. And if Freeman, the guy cashing twenty seven million dollars a year, couldn't sidestep a two million dollar hit, nobody above that threshold is immune. David: Hmm. I mean to be fair, Freeman had options. He listed it at nearly nine million in twenty twenty four. held it, relisted at $7.4 million in September 2025, he was trying. Jordyn: Oh yeah, he tried and the market said no and ULA still said yes. David: Yeah, the market has feelings, ULA does not. Jordyn: So if you're sitting on a property in Holmby Hills right now worth maybe what you paid in 2022, this story is not abstract. This is your math. David: Which gets us to the obvious question, why hasn't the city actually fixed this? And David, that answer involves a council meeting, a committee punt, and a very angry councilmember Raman. Jordyn: So the council punted. January 2026, councilmember Nithya Raman, who actually backed ULA in 2022, brought a rewrite to the table. A 15-year exemption for new commercial, multifamily, and mixed-use construction, plus a carve-out for Palisades fire victims. David: And CalMatters covered the vote. The council killed it. Didn't even go to a full vote. Just kicked it to committee. Jordyn: Which, by the way, Raman herself called the consequences of ULA. And I'm quoting here, economically and politically disastrous. The woman who campaigned for the thing in 2022. David: Right, that's a full 180. Jordyn: So now the question is, who's actually running this? David: Councilmember Ysabel Jurado chairs the new ad hoc committee. She's the one tasked with getting recommendations to the full council in time for a possible November ballot measure. Jordyn: A possible November measure. So we've got the reform camp who call themselves Mend It. End it, don't end it, working through Gerardo's committee, and on the other side, Howard Jarvis who says publicly there is no deal. David: None. They've been clear. Jordyn: And here's where it gets genuinely weird for any seller trying to decide whether to list right now. According to CalMatters, some of the Gerardo committee's changes could land on the November ballot, the same November ballot as the Howard Jarvis initiative. David: Wait, so voters could see a repeal measure and a reform measure simultaneously? Jordyn: On the same ballot. Yes. David: Okay, so Angelenos walk into the booth in November and they're voting on two separate measures that do opposite things to the same tax. Jordyn: And both could pass, or both could fail; or one cancels the other, nobody knows. David: That's genuinely not great if you own something in Bel Air above five million and you're trying to figure out your time line. Jordyn: You're not just betting on the market, you're betting on California ballot math, and the Howard Jarvis side has already said, per the LASD reporting, there's no Sacramento Grand Bargain. David: No deal. Jordyn: Two measures, same November ballot. Maximum seller confusion. And November is only five months away. So here's where November gets genuinely wild. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, their Local Taxpayer Protection Act, was certified for the November 2026 ballot on May 3rd. According to CalMatters, it caps all municipal transfer taxes statewide David: Wow, Jordyn: at 0.05% of sale price. David: which sounds like a technical tweak until you run the numbers. Jordyn: On a $10 million Bel Air sale, the ULA hit. hit right now is $550,000. Under the Jarvis Initiative, $5,000. David: 5,000. Jordyn: Yeah, yeah, yeah. David: Okay, but here's where I push back a little. Per CalMatters, 57% of likely voters, including a majority of Republicans, opposed it when they saw the ballot title. That's not a sure thing, Jordan. Jordyn: Fair, but the Jarvis side is publicly saying they're not interested in a deal. And Sacramento is trying to offer something. Democrats floated restrictions on transfer taxes statewide to get the measure pulled, according to CalMatters. That effort fizzled once. David: Right. And there's a counterinitiative already headed for the same ballot that would require the Jarvis measure itself to clear a two-thirds threshold to pass. Jordyn: So you've got two measures aimed at the same tax potentially canceling each other out. David: November could end in a complete standoff. Jordyn: Here's the thing, though. Do the dollar math. According to Reed Corporation's analysis on a $20 million Brentwood compound, ULA costs $1.1 million today. If Jarvis passes, that drops to $10,000. David: $1.1 million versus $10,000 on the same property. Jordyn: And remember, ULA passed in 2022 with about 58% of the vote. vote. Under the new two-thirds rule the Jarvis initiative would impose, it would have failed outright. David: So you're a seller sitting on a Holmby Hills estate. Close now, pay the certainty tax, or hold through November and gamble on a 57% opposition poll that might Jordyn: Yeah. David: not hold. Jordyn: And if the counter-initiative muddies the water, you could hold, both measures lose, and you're right back where you started, except it's 2027. David: With carrying costs. Jordyn: Always with the carrying costs, which honestly is the next thing every seller above $5.4 million. needs to actually sit down and model out. So here's the practical question every seller above $5.4 million is staring at right now. Do you list today or do you wait? David: And the escrow math is unforgiving. A deal doesn't just need to open before July 1. It needs to close. 30 to 45 day timelines means if you're not already in contract by mid-May? Jordyn: You're transacting under the new thresholds, full stop. David: Right, which for the city's own Finance FAQ means 4% on anything between. anything between $5.4 and $10.9 million and 5.5% above that. Jordyn: Okay, so paint this concretely. You've got a home hills estate at $15 million. You wait for November, Jarvis wins, you save $825,000 in ULA tax. David: That's real money. I don't want to dismiss that. Jordyn: But Jarvis is polling at 57% opposition, and even if it wins, a counter-initiative could neutralize it entirely. Meanwhile, you're carrying a $15 million property through a soft market above $10 million on the West Side. David: Carrying costs, property taxes, insurance, an empty pool situation nobody's maintaining, that clock is running whether you sell or not. Jordyn: Exactly. And then there's the workaround crowd. Tax advisors are telling clients to look at LLC restructuring, spousal ownership splits, strategies to avoid ULA altogether. David: I've heard this, but the problem is those structures need serious lead time, and as legal clarity.org flagged, getting the entity analysis wrong on a $15 million transfer is expensive. Expensive-like catastrophically expensive. Jordyn: Right-the cure costs more than the disease. David: So where do you actually land? Speaker 3: Uncle? David: Because I think a seller at, say, eight million in Brentwood has a pretty clear answer. Jordyn: List, now: lock in certainty-the taxes known, the market exists, and November is a coin flip with carrying costs attached. David: I'll push back slightly: a patient seller at twelve million in Bel Air; long hold, low basis-they have real reason to model November. Remember, the theoretical savings on a 5.5% bill are over $600,000. Jordyn: Fair, but theoretical is doing a lot of work in that sentence. David: Yeah, yeah, fair point. Jordyn: Here's where I keep landing. Certainty has a dollar value too, and right now nobody's selling it cheap in this market. Okay, so that is a lot of tax math for one episode. David: A lot. But David, honestly, the Freddie Freeman number is the one that sticks with me. Bought for $7.8 million, sold for $6.45 million, and still owed ULA on the full gross. Jordyn: Wow. David: The tax doesn't care if you lost money. Jordyn: That's the whole thing right there. And it's not just Bel Air Rails. Apartment buildings, commercial deals, anyone above that threshold. David: Right. And now the whole calendar is a tax decision. June 30th, the threshold. thresholds reset upward. November, the Howard Jarvis repeal is on the statewide ballot. Per CalMatters, more than 57% of likely voters opposed it when they saw the ballot title. Jordyn: So, sellers are stuck between certainty before June 30th and a November gamble. That's the real story. David: Pick your risk, pick your escrow. Jordyn: Basically. Alright, if this episode made your head spin a little, good. Follow Listing Price wherever you listen. New episodes every Tuesday. Got a deal we should cover? Drop us a line. David: Thanks for being here. See you next week.

Jordyn: Welcome to Listing Price. I'm here with David and, OK, we need to talk about a tax deadline that is 41 days away. David: June 30th, circle it. On a $10 million Bel Air sale, that single calendar day is the difference between a $550,000 ULA bill and, well, still enormous, but differently enormous. Jordyn: Right, and then there's the Howard Jarvis ballot measure that just got certified for November, which if it... If it passes, slashes that same bill to around $5,000. David: $5,000 on a $10 million sale? Jordyn: 5,000. So sellers are staring at close before June 30th or certainty, or gamble on November. That's the whole episode. David: No pressure. Jordyn: None at all. And before we get there, Freddie Freeman, Dodgers first baseman, bought a Studio City place in 2023 for $7. $1.8 million, sold it for $6.45 million, already down $1.35 million, and then ULA hit him for another $258,000 on the gross sale price. David: On a loss, the tax doesn't care if you made money. Jordyn: Total Damage North of $2 Million Speaker 3: Great tax. Jordyn: Okay, so get this. We've got three years of ULA data, over a billion dollars collected, but UCLA research shows transaction volumes down somewhere between 38 and 50 percent, and City Journal is reporting the tax is falling well short of its annual projections. David: So it raised a billion, but maybe cost more in lost revenue. lost transactions in future property tax. Jordyn: That is exactly the question we're going to dig into. June 30th is the clock. Let's get into it. Okay, so get this. One address, Bel Air, $10 million. And if that deal closes on July 1st instead of June 30th, the seller rates an extra $550,000 to the city for nothing. David: For nothing? Jordyn: For literally nothing. The house doesn't change, the buyer doesn't change-one calendar day. David: So, Jordyn, walk me through exactly what's happening here, because we should be precise. Jordyn: Right, so according to the LA city finance office, effective July 1st the ULA thresholds reset: five point four million for the four percent tier, ten point nine million for the five point five percent tier, adjusted going forward by the BLS chained CPI. Speaker 4: i. Jordyn: CPI. David: And wait, so the thresholds are going up, not down, which means that's Jordyn: Which means waiting costs you more. David: the thing people are getting backwards. They hear the numbers are changing and assume maybe there's relief coming. No, the bar just moved higher, but you're still paying 5.5% above it. Jordyn: On a $10 million sale, the ULA hit alone is $550,000. Stack the base city transfer tax. x 0.45% plus the L.A. County documentary tax, you're looking at roughly $595,000 just in transfer taxes. David: More than half a million dollars in transfer taxes on one transaction. Jordyn: And here's the spread that breaks my brain. The Howard Jarvis statewide initiative on the November ballot, per LAist, would cap transfer taxes at roughly 100 times lower than UCLA's. highest top rate. David: Meaning on that same $10 million Bel Air sale. Jordyn: $5,000 versus $550,000. That's your November variable. David: According to analysis from Reed Court Tax, that's a more than 99% reduction in the transfer tax bite. So you're telling me the difference between June 30th and July 1st is $550,000 and the difference between today and November is also potentially $550,000? 145 grand? Jordyn: Yeah, yeah, yeah. The whole calendar is a tax decision right now. David: CalMatters reported in January that the city council punted on any UCLA rewrite, no reforms on the June ballot, the tax stays exactly as written until voters say otherwise. Jordyn: So the only question is, has this tax actually done what voters were promised? Because the headline says $1 billion collected. The actual annual number tells a very different story. story. So, the headline number sounds good – one billion dollars collected since April 2023. City-Journal covered this, and it's real money that built real housing programs. David: Wait, but here's the thing. The city projected $600 million to $1.1 billion per year. Actual fiscal year 2024 collections? $296.7 million. That's less than half of the floor. Right, and supporters say the tax is working, but the data... Data gets ugly fast. Speaker 5: How ugly? David: Emphasis. UCLA's Lewis Center found that commercial property sales in Los Angeles fell by up to 50% after ULA took effect. The odds of any transaction closing above the 5 million threshold dropped by roughly 50% too. Speaker 5: Wow. 50% on both counts. David: Yeah, and there's a separate study: Harvard, UC Irvine, UC San Diego found ULA reduced eligible property transactions citywide. Divide by thirty eight per cent. Speaker 5: Okay, but, David, I'd push back a little. A billion dollars is still a billion dollars that funded real tenant protections, real affordable units. David: Sure; except-and this is the Prop 13 kicker-every sale that doesn't happen is a reassessment that doesn't happen. The Harvard team estimated lost property tax revenue offset somewhere between sixty three per cent and a hundred and thirty eight per cent of what ULA actually collect. Speaker 6: Oh! David: Collected. Jordyn: Wait, wait, wait. So at the high end, the city could be losing more in future property taxes than it's gaining from the transfer tax? David: That's the argument, and the UCLA RAND estimate adds another layer: 1,910 fewer apartment units delivered per year because developers won't touch deals above the threshold. Jordyn: So you tax the transactions that build new housing to fund housing. David: Correct. Jordyn: I mean... I mean, that's a design flaw. David: It's Prop 13 interacting with a transfer tax, freeze the sales, freeze the reassessments, shrink the entire property tax base. The revenue math just collapses. Jordyn: And that's exactly the story we're going to feel in a very personal way in our next segment, because this isn't just abstract math on apartment buildings. David: Uh-huh. Jordyn: It's hitting individual sellers who lost money on their homes and still owe six figures to the city. City. Now flip that data on its his head and make it a face. Freddie Freeman, World Series Hero, six-year, $162 million contract, and he got absolutely wrecked by ULA. David: WRECKED IS GENEROUS Jordyn: Okay, so get this. Freeman bought a house in Studio City in 2023 for $7.8 million, a double A-frame, gated, 6,000-square-feet, the works. He sells it for $6.45 million. David: Already down $1.35 million before anything? Jordyn: Before anything. Then ULA hits. According to Jeremy Padawers' breakdown on X, that's 4% on the gross sale price, $258,000 to the city. David: On a sale where he lost money. Jordyn: Correct. The city does not care. Commissions ate another $387,000. Closing costs, $32,000. Total selling costs around $677,000. David: So all in, he's passed. Jordyn: $2 million gone, according to Yahoo Sports reporting on the numbers. David: And that's the whole mechanic, right? ULA is calculated on the gross sales price, not profit, not equity, the full number. Jordyn: This is where it gets good, because that's exactly why Bel Air and the Bird Streets are frozen right now, owners who bought at 2021 and 2022. To peak prices are under water or barely above water. David: Right, so you're not selling to avoid a loss; you're not selling to avoid the tax on top of the loss! Jordyn: It's stacks. And if Freeman, the guy cashing twenty seven million dollars a year, couldn't sidestep a two million dollar hit, nobody above that threshold is immune. David: Hmm. I mean to be fair, Freeman had options. He listed it at nearly nine million in twenty twenty four. held it, relisted at $7.4 million in September 2025, he was trying. Jordyn: Oh yeah, he tried and the market said no and ULA still said yes. David: Yeah, the market has feelings, ULA does not. Jordyn: So if you're sitting on a property in Holmby Hills right now worth maybe what you paid in 2022, this story is not abstract. This is your math. David: Which gets us to the obvious question, why hasn't the city actually fixed this? And David, that answer involves a council meeting, a committee punt, and a very angry councilmember Raman. Jordyn: So the council punted. January 2026, councilmember Nithya Raman, who actually backed ULA in 2022, brought a rewrite to the table. A 15-year exemption for new commercial, multifamily, and mixed-use construction, plus a carve-out for Palisades fire victims. David: And CalMatters covered the vote. The council killed it. Didn't even go to a full vote. Just kicked it to committee. Jordyn: Which, by the way, Raman herself called the consequences of ULA. And I'm quoting here, economically and politically disastrous. The woman who campaigned for the thing in 2022. David: Right, that's a full 180. Jordyn: So now the question is, who's actually running this? David: Councilmember Ysabel Jurado chairs the new ad hoc committee. She's the one tasked with getting recommendations to the full council in time for a possible November ballot measure. Jordyn: A possible November measure. So we've got the reform camp who call themselves Mend It. End it, don't end it, working through Gerardo's committee, and on the other side, Howard Jarvis who says publicly there is no deal. David: None. They've been clear. Jordyn: And here's where it gets genuinely weird for any seller trying to decide whether to list right now. According to CalMatters, some of the Gerardo committee's changes could land on the November ballot, the same November ballot as the Howard Jarvis initiative. David: Wait, so voters could see a repeal measure and a reform measure simultaneously? Jordyn: On the same ballot. Yes. David: Okay, so Angelenos walk into the booth in November and they're voting on two separate measures that do opposite things to the same tax. Jordyn: And both could pass, or both could fail; or one cancels the other, nobody knows. David: That's genuinely not great if you own something in Bel Air above five million and you're trying to figure out your time line. Jordyn: You're not just betting on the market, you're betting on California ballot math, and the Howard Jarvis side has already said, per the LASD reporting, there's no Sacramento Grand Bargain. David: No deal. Jordyn: Two measures, same November ballot. Maximum seller confusion. And November is only five months away. So here's where November gets genuinely wild. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, their Local Taxpayer Protection Act, was certified for the November 2026 ballot on May 3rd. According to CalMatters, it caps all municipal transfer taxes statewide David: Wow, Jordyn: at 0.05% of sale price. David: which sounds like a technical tweak until you run the numbers. Jordyn: On a $10 million Bel Air sale, the ULA hit. hit right now is $550,000. Under the Jarvis Initiative, $5,000. David: 5,000. Jordyn: Yeah, yeah, yeah. David: Okay, but here's where I push back a little. Per CalMatters, 57% of likely voters, including a majority of Republicans, opposed it when they saw the ballot title. That's not a sure thing, Jordan. Jordyn: Fair, but the Jarvis side is publicly saying they're not interested in a deal. And Sacramento is trying to offer something. Democrats floated restrictions on transfer taxes statewide to get the measure pulled, according to CalMatters. That effort fizzled once. David: Right. And there's a counterinitiative already headed for the same ballot that would require the Jarvis measure itself to clear a two-thirds threshold to pass. Jordyn: So you've got two measures aimed at the same tax potentially canceling each other out. David: November could end in a complete standoff. Jordyn: Here's the thing, though. Do the dollar math. According to Reed Corporation's analysis on a $20 million Brentwood compound, ULA costs $1.1 million today. If Jarvis passes, that drops to $10,000. David: $1.1 million versus $10,000 on the same property. Jordyn: And remember, ULA passed in 2022 with about 58% of the vote. vote. Under the new two-thirds rule the Jarvis initiative would impose, it would have failed outright. David: So you're a seller sitting on a Holmby Hills estate. Close now, pay the certainty tax, or hold through November and gamble on a 57% opposition poll that might Jordyn: Yeah. David: not hold. Jordyn: And if the counter-initiative muddies the water, you could hold, both measures lose, and you're right back where you started, except it's 2027. David: With carrying costs. Jordyn: Always with the carrying costs, which honestly is the next thing every seller above $5.4 million. needs to actually sit down and model out. So here's the practical question every seller above $5.4 million is staring at right now. Do you list today or do you wait? David: And the escrow math is unforgiving. A deal doesn't just need to open before July 1. It needs to close. 30 to 45 day timelines means if you're not already in contract by mid-May? Jordyn: You're transacting under the new thresholds, full stop. David: Right, which for the city's own Finance FAQ means 4% on anything between. anything between $5.4 and $10.9 million and 5.5% above that. Jordyn: Okay, so paint this concretely. You've got a home hills estate at $15 million. You wait for November, Jarvis wins, you save $825,000 in ULA tax. David: That's real money. I don't want to dismiss that. Jordyn: But Jarvis is polling at 57% opposition, and even if it wins, a counter-initiative could neutralize it entirely. Meanwhile, you're carrying a $15 million property through a soft market above $10 million on the West Side. David: Carrying costs, property taxes, insurance, an empty pool situation nobody's maintaining, that clock is running whether you sell or not. Jordyn: Exactly. And then there's the workaround crowd. Tax advisors are telling clients to look at LLC restructuring, spousal ownership splits, strategies to avoid ULA altogether. David: I've heard this, but the problem is those structures need serious lead time, and as legal clarity.org flagged, getting the entity analysis wrong on a $15 million transfer is expensive. Expensive-like catastrophically expensive. Jordyn: Right-the cure costs more than the disease. David: So where do you actually land? Speaker 3: Uncle? David: Because I think a seller at, say, eight million in Brentwood has a pretty clear answer. Jordyn: List, now: lock in certainty-the taxes known, the market exists, and November is a coin flip with carrying costs attached. David: I'll push back slightly: a patient seller at twelve million in Bel Air; long hold, low basis-they have real reason to model November. Remember, the theoretical savings on a 5.5% bill are over $600,000. Jordyn: Fair, but theoretical is doing a lot of work in that sentence. David: Yeah, yeah, fair point. Jordyn: Here's where I keep landing. Certainty has a dollar value too, and right now nobody's selling it cheap in this market. Okay, so that is a lot of tax math for one episode. David: A lot. But David, honestly, the Freddie Freeman number is the one that sticks with me. Bought for $7.8 million, sold for $6.45 million, and still owed ULA on the full gross. Jordyn: Wow. David: The tax doesn't care if you lost money. Jordyn: That's the whole thing right there. And it's not just Bel Air Rails. Apartment buildings, commercial deals, anyone above that threshold. David: Right. And now the whole calendar is a tax decision. June 30th, the threshold. thresholds reset upward. November, the Howard Jarvis repeal is on the statewide ballot. Per CalMatters, more than 57% of likely voters opposed it when they saw the ballot title. Jordyn: So, sellers are stuck between certainty before June 30th and a November gamble. That's the real story. David: Pick your risk, pick your escrow. Jordyn: Basically. Alright, if this episode made your head spin a little, good. Follow Listing Price wherever you listen. New episodes every Tuesday. Got a deal we should cover? Drop us a line. David: Thanks for being here. See you next week.