Wed: We Bet Cuts, The Fed Hiked—We Blew It

Rush LindellOh, buckle up. Buckle up, because today, today is judgment day.

ReaganHere we go.

Rush LindellThis is Rush Limbaugh, and that's Reagan, and we run the only show in America bold enough to make a bet and actually own the receipt.

ReaganSome days, that's a blessing.

Rush LindellEvery single day, if you ask me, Reagan.

ReaganNobody asked you, Rush.

Rush LindellFor months, months, we told you what the Fed was going to do. We put it in writing. We said it on the air. We staked our reputation on it.

ReaganUh-

Rush LindellI'm not telling you yet.

ReaganSeriously?

Rush LindellYou'll get it. You'll get it. But there's a second thing brewing under all this, and it involves a certain someone in the Oval Office who is not going to take today well.

ReaganThe scorecard's about to get uncomfortable, Rush.

Rush LindellOh, it's about to get very uncomfortable.

ReaganFor who?

Rush LindellFor us. Mostly for us.

ReaganGreat.

Rush LindellGreat is generous, and we both know it.

ReaganThat's the nicest word for it, honestly.

Rush LindellStick around. Okay, so let's actually say it out loud. For months on this show, we bet the Fed was cutting.

ReaganCutting, not holding, not hiking. We said it on air over and over.

Rush LindellThis wasn't a passing thought either, Reagan. We built whole episodes around it.

ReaganYes. And we did, segment after segment, stacking evidence for a cut.

Rush LindellEvery single week since spring, basically.

ReaganRight, and I wanna do this clean. No spin, no wiggle room. We just lay out what we said versus what actually happened.

Rush LindellYou're already bracing me for the crow.

ReaganI'm bracing both of us.

Rush LindellFair. So that's the deal. No dressing it up?

ReaganNone. Whatever the vote says, we read it straight.

Rush LindellGood, because I built a whole thesis on this.

ReaganI know you did.

Rush LindellMonths of monologues, Reagan. Confident ones.

ReaganVery confident.

Rush LindellThank you.

ReaganThat wasn't a compliment.

Rush LindellBut that's the thing. Confidence isn't the crime here. Being wrong out loud for months in front of everybody, that's the actual risk we took.

ReaganIt is a risk. Plenty of hosts never say a firm number, so they can never be proven wrong.

Rush LindellI'll take it anyway. Now, here's the part that should have made the cut case bulletproof. Trump wasn't just hoping for lower rates. He was leaning on his own guy to deliver them.

ReaganHis own pick for the chair.

Rush LindellHis handpicked chair. That's not background noise. That's the whole ballgame. When the president is publicly pressuring the man he put in the seat, you'd think that seals it.

ReaganYou'd think.

Rush LindellAnd that's exactly why we leaned in as hard as we did. A president, his own pick, public pressure, textbook setup for a cave.

ReaganTextbook? Sure. But textbooks don't always hold up against a guy who just got confirmed and wants to prove he's nobody's rubber stamp.

Rush LindellWait for it.

ReaganDon't do the dramatic pause.

Rush LindellI'm doing the dramatic pause.

ReaganOf course you are.

Rush LindellEvery week, we found a new reason to believe it, too. Polling, market chatter, you name it.

ReaganWe collected receipts like it was a hobby.

Rush LindellBecause that pressure campaign is exactly why we felt so good about this bet. Public muscle, handpicked guy, everybody expects him to fold.

ReaganAnd that's the piece we need to walk through next, what that pressure actually looked like, and why it didn't work the way anyone assumed.

Rush LindellOh, it's a story.

ReaganIt's a story.

Rush LindellAll right. Let's get into what Trump actually did to make this cut look like a lock. Is-- So here's what Trump actually threatened. Reagan, not just tweets, trade.

ReaganTrade?

Rush LindellCNBC reported he floated cutting off trade with any country running a surplus with us, unless the Fed cut rates.

ReaganThat's not monetary pressure. That's a hostage note with tariffs attached.

Rush LindellHostage note, I like that.

ReaganPresidents lean on the Fed all the time, quietly, through channels. This was public, and it dragged trade policy into a rate decision.

Rush LindellAnd it lands on the same guy we already talked about, which is exactly why this threat felt like it should have worked.

ReaganIt's genuinely rare. You don't usually see a president threaten global trade relationships to move a domestic interest rate.

Rush LindellNo way.

ReaganI mean it. Most of this stuff happens in private calls, maybe a testy press conference, not a trade ultimatum.

Rush LindellThink about what that actually means, though. Cutting off trade with every surplus country isn't a policy tweak. It's a wrecking ball aimed at the entire supply chain.

ReaganRight, and the CNBC reporting made clear this wasn't some offhand remark. The threat was tied explicitly to the Fed's rate decision. Cut rates or the trade relationship gets severed.

Rush LindellThat's a president using foreign trade as a lever to move a supposedly independent central bank.

ReaganWhich is the part that should worry anyone who cares about that independence, regardless of which side of the rate debate you're on.

Rush LindellBecause if it works once, it works every time.

ReaganExactly. You set that precedent, and suddenly every Fed decision has a trade war attached to it.

Rush LindellAnd that's before we even get to how other countries would read it. Nobody loves hearing their trade relationship is a bargaining chip in someone else's interest rate fight.

ReaganNo, they don't. It complicates every other conversation happening in the background, tariffs, alliances, all of it.

Rush LindellSo by our logic, war scaves. The vote goes dovish. We're heroes.

ReaganThat was the theory.

Rush LindellWas.

ReaganPast tense doing a lot of work there.

Rush LindellOh, it is. But before we get to the vote itself, you gotta hear what the trading desks were whispering the morning of.

ReaganThe overnight chatter.

Rush LindellYeah, because in the hours before the Gavel came down, the money was already leaning somewhere, and it wasn't leaning where we bet.

ReaganWait, Seriously?

Rush LindellDead serious. Hold that thought. Reagan, before the Gavel even drops, there's this chatter running through financial corners of the internet, people betting the Fed doesn't stop at one move.

ReaganWhat kind of chatter?

Rush LindellThere's a video making the rounds on financial YouTube basically arguing the Fed hikes now and does it again twice more before the year is out.

ReaganTwice more.

Rush LindellThat's the claim.

ReaganThat's a big swing from where we started this whole bit.

Rush LindellA big swing, sure, but Reagan, big swings are exactly what we've been missing.

ReaganMissing? Or ignoring?

Rush LindellIt is. And Reagan, I gotta tell you, this is the exact signal we've been chasing for weeks on this show.

ReaganThe signal.

Rush LindellThe one where the market stops pretending Warsh caves.

ReaganYou've been saying any day now since August.

Rush LindellFair, but this is different. This isn't some anonymous trader. This is a whole current running through the comment sections, the finance shows, the amateur economists with too much free time, and a Robinhood app.

ReaganAnd they're all landing on hikes, not cuts.

Rush LindellEvery single one of them.

ReaganEvery single one.

Rush LindellOn multiple hikes.

ReaganThat's a lot of confidence to put behind a guess.

Rush LindellIt's not a guess if it's everywhere.

ReaganIt's still a guess, Rush. It's just a popular one.

Rush LindellCall it what you want, but popular guesses that turn out true are exactly what should worry a couple of guys who bet the other way.

ReaganThat's fair. A crowd being right doesn't make us any less wrong.

Rush LindellPopular and apparently correct, which is the part that should terrify us.

ReaganShould it terrify us, or just you?

Rush LindellBoth of us. We've got a scorecard on the line here.

ReaganWe do.

Rush LindellWait for it.

ReaganDon't.

Rush LindellI'm just saying, the room got quiet before this vote came down.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellWhat?

ReaganStop stalling and tell people what happened.

Rush LindellOkay.

ReaganOkay.

Rush LindellThe committee met. The cameras were rolling. Every seat at that table had a vote to cast, and I'm not gonna tease it anymore.

ReaganGood.

Rush Lindell'Cause it happened, Reagan. It's done. The number's out there right now.

ReaganThen say it.

Rush LindellI'm about to. Give me one second, 'cause months of us arguing on this air comes down to what I'm about to read off this page.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellFine. Here it is. Twelve to zero.

ReaganSay it again.

Rush LindellTwelve to zero. Every single voting member of that committee, including the guy Trump himself put in the chair, voted to hike.

ReaganNot hold, not cut. Hike.

Rush LindellA quarter point. Three point seventy-five to four percent. First increase since two thousand twenty-three.

ReaganWait, first since two thousand twenty-three? That's not a blip. That's a reversal of the whole story we've been telling for months.

Rush LindellIt's the whole story flipped upside down and set on fire, Reagan.

ReaganAnd it gets worse for us. Sixteen of eighteen officials penciled in another hike before the year is out.

Rush LindellSixteen of eighteen. Think about that. That's not a split committee hedging its bets. That's almost the entire room saying, "We're not done."

ReaganSo the chatter we tracked wasn't wrong about direction. It just had the sign Backwards.

Rush LindellBackwards is generous. We had this thing pointed due south, and the plane flew due north.

ReaganDue north with Sixteen pilots agreeing on the flight plan.

Rush LindellBloomberg framed it as a test, said the move was aimed at containing inflation and would test, uh, Warsh's relationship with the President who appointed him.

ReaganThat's putting it mildly. You don't publicly defy the man who handpicked you unless you think the inflation numbers actually demand it.

Rush LindellThat's a legitimate read, and honestly, the inflation numbers were already screaming loud before that meeting even started, Reagan.

ReaganMaybe so, but screaming numbers and a unanimous vote are two very different things politically, Rush.

Rush LindellRight. And NBC News laid out the bigger arc, said this, uh, Comes after years of Trump demanding lower rates, and it could be the start of more increases, not a one-off.

ReaganThe start, not the end.

Rush LindellCool, cool, cool. Love that for us.

ReaganSo let's be adults about this. We said cut. The Fed hiked unanimously and told us there's more coming.

Rush LindellWe were wrong. Flat out, no spin wrong.

ReaganWrong on direction, wrong on magnitude, wrong on the unanimity.

Rush LindellI want that on the record exactly like that. Uh, Rush and Reagan called a cut. The Fed hiked 12-zero and signaled it's not finished.

ReaganDone. Recorded. Filed under Humblings.

Rush LindellHumblings a nice word for it.

ReaganYou want a mean one instead?

Rush LindellNo, no. Humblings works. Now, here's what I actually wanna know.

ReaganWhat?

Rush LindellWe spent all that time on whether Warsh would bend to the pressure campaign. He didn't bend. So what did the guy applying the pressure do the second he saw that vote count?

ReaganOh, he did something.

Rush LindellOh, he did something. Truth Social, real time.

ReaganYou read it?

Rush LindellI've read it three times because I didn't believe it the first time.

ReaganTell me.

Rush LindellSo the vote lands, Warsh votes to hike, and within the hour, Trump's on Truth Social.

ReaganWhat'd he say?

Rush LindellGet this. He wants it at 1% or less when the Fed just took it up to nearly 4.0.

ReaganThat's not a nudge, Rush. That's a different universe of monetary policy.

Rush LindellHe wants rates at 1% or less. Not a typo, 1%.

ReaganAfter his own guy just voted the opposite direction.

Rush LindellSame day. Same hour, basically.

ReaganThat's not a policy request. That's a tantrum with a keyboard.

Rush LindellA tantrum with a keyboard is generous, honestly. He posted it like the vote hadn't even happened yet.

ReaganLike reality was still up for negotiation.

Rush LindellAnd here's the part that breaks my brain. He says he still has confidence in Warsh.

ReaganWait, hold on. He's furious, and he's also fine with him?

Rush LindellBoth things. Same statement.

ReaganThat's not loyalty. That's a man who can't admit he picked wrong.

Rush LindellOr he knows firing him makes it worse.

ReaganRight. Replacing a chair mid-cycle spooks markets way more than one hike he didn't want.

Rush LindellSo firing him is off the table, at least for now.

ReaganProbably. Markets already flinch at a hike. They'd flinch a lot harder at a chair getting pushed out mid-cycle.

Rush LindellSo he vents instead.

ReaganBut think about the leverage question. He handpicked this guy specifically so the Fed would move his way.

Rush LindellAnd the guy just didn't.

ReaganSo what's left? A tweet demanding 1% doesn't change a single vote that already happened.

Rush LindellExactly. It reads more like a man venting into the void than a man actually trying to change the outcome.

ReaganThe vote's already certified. There's no version of a Truth Social post that un-hikes a rate.

Rush LindellIt's pure theater at this point.

ReaganIt's a man standing in the driveway yelling at a car that already left.

Rush LindellI like that.

ReaganThe real question is whether Trump's stuck with Warsh through the next meeting, or whether confidence has an expiration date.

Rush LindellI think he sticks with him through at least the next meeting.

ReaganI'd guess the same, if only because replacing him now would look like an admission of defeat.

Rush LindellMy money is on expiration date.

ReaganWe'll see.

Rush LindellBut look, venting on Social Media doesn't touch your mortgage, doesn't touch your credit card, doesn't touch what you're about to spend on Christmas presents.

ReaganRight. The actual math just changed for millions of people yesterday. That's where this stops being political theater and starts being your paycheck.

Rush LindellOkay, so here's the receipt nobody ordered. CBS News ran the mortgage numbers the day after the vote.

ReaganAnd?

Rush LindellThirty-year average, 7.37%.

ReaganOuch.

Rush LindellFifteen-year, 6.62.

ReaganThat's basically where we were right after the last hike back in 2023.

Rush LindellWorse than that, Rag, and CBS says we're almost two full points above the March low back when it was sitting at 5.75.

ReaganOn a normal house, two points is the difference between a mortgage payment and a car payment.

Rush LindellA really nice car.

ReaganCNN's got an angle I didn't expect, though. They say mortgage rates and auto loans actually track Treasury yields more than the Fed's own rate.

Rush LindellSo the Fed hikes, and your mortgage doesn't have to move at all.

ReaganDoesn't have to. CNN even quotes a mortgage expert wondering if rates could still drift down anyway.

Rush LindellSure. Could. Meanwhile, CNN also says new cars average $49,121 in August.

ReaganUp from?

Rush Lindell$48,658 back in January.

ReaganSo the car got more expensive, and the loan on it just got worse.

Rush LindellDouble whammy. And Citizens Bank spells out why the Fed pulled the trigger at all. They're pointing at inflation running 3.4% a year.

ReaganThat's the number Warsh was actually voting on.

Rush LindellCitizens Bank says savers get a little something back. Small bump in deposit yields.

ReaganThe consolation prize.

Rush LindellBut borrowers eat it immediately. Credit cards, HELOCs, anything with a variable rate moves right away.

ReaganFixed-rate loans don't budge. At least there's that.

Rush LindellIf you already locked one in, congratulations. You win nothing, but you also lose nothing.

ReaganSmall mercies.

Rush LindellAll right. Before I start crying into my coffee about interest rates, let's protect something you can actually hold. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one oz. silver American Eagle below spot price.

ReaganBelow spot. Not at spot. Below it.

Rush LindellThat's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganPriced below spot. Lear is straight up selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person. New customers only.

Rush LindellFree shipping. Fully insured by Lear. And this is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganSpot price doesn't even include what it costs to mint the coin, ship it, or the dealer's cut. Buying at spot is already a deal.

Rush LindellBuying below spot almost never happens. And this isn't some obscure piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable coins in the world.

ReaganBacked by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver. IRA eligible.

Rush LindellA tangible asset you can actually hold. Go to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. 24 hours. The URL goes dark after that.

Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com. When it's gone, it's gone.

Rush LindellSo mortgages are ugly. Cards are ugly. Cars are ugly. And Rush, wait till you hear what this does to the holidays.

ReaganAnd the midterms are showing up in mailboxes right behind it.

Rush LindellSo here's the number that actually matters for your Thanksgiving table. Coresight says 41% of holiday shoppers expect to lean hard on credit cards this year.

ReaganAnd balances are already up 4.5% year over year. $1.263 trillion total.

Rush LindellThat's a lot of plastic.

ReaganIt gets worse. The sharpest growth, 7.8%, is among shoppers 70 and older.

Rush LindellRetirees swiping just to keep up. That's not a shopping habit. That's a squeeze.

ReaganRight. And now every one of those balances gets more expensive to carry the same week the Fed just made borrowing pricier.

Rush LindellTiming's brutal. But wait. Forbes says 31% of people still plan to spend more this year.

ReaganThey do. But that survey's honest about why. It's inflation pushing the number up, not people suddenly feeling flush.

Rush LindellSo it looks like optimism, and it's actually just prices.

ReaganPretty much. And almost one in five shoppers already started buying before August, trying to spread the pain out.

Rush LindellSmart, actually. Get ahead of it before the card statement shows up in January looking like a threat.

ReaganA threat with an APR.

Rush LindellAnd that's before you even factor in the higher rates on whatever balance they can't pay off by January.

ReaganRight. So that threat just keeps getting bigger every single month it sits there unpaid.

Rush LindellNow layer the other thing onto this. Midterm mailboxes. Every one of those ads landing in mailboxes right now is going to have a line about the economy, about prices, about the Fed.

ReaganAnd candidates on both sides get to pick their version of the story. Higher rates hurting families, or the Fed finally getting serious about inflation.

Rush LindellDepends which mailer you open.

ReaganExactly. Same vote, two completely different campaign ads.

Rush LindellWe got the vote wrong. We're not gonna pretend we know how 40 million households handle the bill.

ReaganNo. But we do know the framework now. Hikes hit variable debt fast, and holiday spending is running right into that.

Rush LindellSo the homework for us is watching whether people actually pull back or just charge it anyway and worry in January.

ReaganThat's the real test, not another prediction from us.

Rush LindellFair. We already ate enough crow for one segment.

ReaganSave some for the next hike.

Rush LindellDon't tempt me. Stick around. We're closing the books on this one right after the break. So remember when we called this the the big day of reckoning?

ReaganI remember.

Rush LindellYeah. Turns out the reckoning came for us.

ReaganIt really did.

Rush LindellTwelve votes, zero mercy. I'm not proud, but I'll own it. We bet the house, and the house hiked.

ReaganThat's the job. You call it, you own it.

Rush LindellAt least the crow's fresh. That's the one silver lining I've got.

ReaganSilver linings. Very on brand for a segment about silver coins.

Rush LindellFiling this one under the record books right next to every other time I was sure.

ReaganIf you saw it differently, if you think we're missing something, write in and tell us.

Rush LindellWe read every one, even the mean ones.

ReaganTruly, even the ones that just say, "Told you so."

Rush LindellThose sting the most.

ReaganEspecially the mean ones. Subscribe. Leave five stars. Tell a friend. New episodes every weekday.

Rush LindellSame time tomorrow. We'll try to be right.

ReaganNo promises.