Tuesday: Trump Cries Fraud in California — Is He Wrong?

Rush LindellSo here's what's going on. California held its jungle primary last week, and what a circus it turned out to be. Steve Hilton jumps out early, looks like a clear front-runner, and then the mail-in ballots start rolling in. Xavier Becerra catches him. Now Hilton is scrapping with Tom Steyer for that second slot in November.

ReaganAccording to CalMatters and CNN's results coverage, Becerra and Hilton are still neck and neck with millions of ballots left to count. Nothing is settled.

Rush LindellNothing is settled-and you know what nobody wants to say? The reason this looks suspicious to people is partly a problem the Republican Party built for itself: years of telling your own voters that mail in ballots are rigged. Guess what?

ReaganYeah.

Rush LindellYour voters didn't mail their ballots in.

ReaganThat's the structural story, and it's the one worth actually examining.

Rush LindellWe'll get into that. But first, Trump. He goes on Truth Social. No evidence, calls the whole thing "stolen." Then his own pick, Hilton, tells CNN he hasn't seen anything illegal.

ReaganThat's a notable gap.

Rush LindellNotable gap, that's one way to put it. And U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli announces investigations-plural-with exactly zero specifics. We'll dig into what that actually means.

ReaganThere's also a satire segment today that, I'll just say, involves both the California and federal monitors showing up at the same ballot center.

Rush LindellFor a public tour available to any citizen.

ReaganRush, we need to talk about the MEGA Act, too. House Republicans have a sweeping election reform bill. Whether it's real policy or positioning for November is a separate question.

Rush LindellThat's exactly right. Big show today. Let's get into it. Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. So here's what happened on election night, June second, in California: Steve Hilton, standing in Huntington Beach, crowd going absolutely wild, looks into the camera and says, Change is coming to California.

ReaganBGHOST2wow.

Rush LindellFull-on celebration. People are fired up.

ReaganEarly returns were genuinely looking good for him.

Rush LindellLooking good? Reagan, According to the Washington Post, when only about seventeen percent of ballots were counted, Hilton was sitting at twenty nine percent.

Speaker 3Becerra was back at twenty six percent, Steyer trailing at twenty percent. First place. On election night, the Republican was in first place in California.

ReaganWhich for a Republican in California is basically a miracle in the first three hours.

Speaker 3It's a miracle. It's a sign. People are ordering the commemorative plates. And then?

ReaganThe mail ballot showed up.

Speaker 3The mail ballot showed up. Over the next several days as those ballots rolled in. Becerra overtook him. Decision Desk HQ called it. Becerra advances to November. Hilton is now fighting for second.

ReaganNow here's the structural reality people need to understand. California runs a jungle primary. Top two finishers, regardless of party, go to the general. So the question isn't just who won,

Speaker 3Right.

Reaganit's who grabbed that second spot, because if Hilton holds second, Republicans are on the ballot in November. If Steyer passed him, you get a Democrat versus Democrat. Democrat general in the biggest state in the country.

Speaker 3And that second spot is still genuinely competitive. Hilton is ahead of Steyer, but mail ballots have not been friendly to him this week.

ReaganThe gap has been narrowing as counting continues.

Speaker 3So you had a guy on a stage, confetti in the air, telling thousands of people he'd be their next governor. By Thursday morning, the story had completely flipped. Now, who do you think is screaming the loudest that something crooked happened? .

Rush LindellSo, here's what happened next: Trump gets on Meet the Press with Kristen Welker, and she asks him point blank, what's your evidence the California count is rigged? Deadpan, his answer: "All I have to do is look; I listen to people.

ReaganThat's the evidence, looking.

Rush LindellLooking." He then called Welker "crooked" and "stupid" and walked out of the interview. Walked out. This is the part where the President of the United States pretends that counting is suspicious because his guys were losing ground.

ReaganOkay, but Rush, step back for a second. What exactly is suspicious about ballots arriving after After election night in California Nothing

Rush LindellNothing—that's the whole move.

ReaganRight. According to Time, over eighty percent of California voters cast ballots by mail. Ballots postmarked by election day are valid for up to a week afterward. California officials said before election night this was coming. Secretary of State Shirley Weber called the slow count "normal.

Rush LindellBut wait, it gets better: Trump's own appointee, U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli in Los Angeles— Nicholas announces multiple election fraud investigations and sends a prosecutor to the county's ballot counting center.

ReaganWow!

Rush LindellNo specifics. Zero. Just the announcement.

ReaganPointedly, ABC7 reported Essayli gave no information on targets, locations, or scope, and Hilton himself, Trump's own candidate, said his team, quote, certainly haven't seen anything that would warrant a fraud claim.

Rush LindellHilton said that. The guy whose lead was evaporating said he hadn't seen anything. hadn't seen fraud, his own candidate.

ReaganHere's where I push back on the whole framing. You want to know why Republicans had a big election night lead that vanished over days? There's a structural reason for that.

Rush LindellOh, this is the interesting part.

ReaganRepublicans vote in person. Democrats vote by mail. That gap didn't appear from nowhere. Someone spent years telling Republican voters that mail-in ballots can't be trusted.

Rush LindellSomeone. Specific someone.

ReaganAnd that's exactly where this story gets uncomfortable for the people currently screaming fraud.

Rush LindellSo here's the thing nobody in the Republican Party wants to say out loud: They built this problem themselves.

ReaganRight, and I want to be precise about what the problem actually is. The Red Mirage where Republicans lead on election night, then fade as Mail ballots count? That's not mysterious. Time magazine covered it this week: Democrats vote by mail more than Republicans. Mail ballots count slower. Lower-the math follows.

Rush LindellAnd you know what? I almost feel bad saying this-almost-because who spent years, years, telling Republican voters

Speaker 4that it was a movie?

Rush LindellVoters that mail ballots were fraudulent; who made 'don't mail your ballot' practically a campaign slogan.

ReaganThe same people now screaming fraud! Look, the SAVE America Act passed the House in February. The MEGA Act would ban universal mail voting outright. That's the policy response to a problem Republicans created by suppressing their own mail ballot participation.

Rush LindellThey talked their voters out of using a legal voting method! method, then watched Democrats use that method, then called it a conspiracy.

ReaganAnd here's where I push back on the simple version of this: Trump's anti-mail messaging genuinely suppressed Republican mail ballot use

Rush LindellMm

Reagan– that's

Rush Lindell-hmm.

Reagandocumented – but Republicans nationally have been trying to course correct on this since 2022. The problem is Trump won't let them.

Rush LindellTime covered this too. After the 2022 midterms, GOP leaders tried to embrace mail voting; Trump pushed back; so now you've got the party running straight into the wall they built.

ReaganAnd the Brookings Institution found mail in ballot fraud accounts for about point zero zero zero zero four three percent of all mail ballots cast, four out of every ten million.

Rush LindellMassive conspiracy. Huge.

ReaganStaggering.

Rush LindellSo the Red Mirage in California isn't fraud, it's the natural consequence of one party using a legal tool and the other party telling their voters to throw that tool in a ditch.

ReaganAnd now they want to legislate the tool out of existence instead of telling their voters to use it.

Rush LindellNow, here's the part that gets genuinely absurd: California AG Rob Bonta sent his own monitor to the LA County ballot Ballot processing center, specifically because the Trump DOJ sent a federal prosecutor there first. Two legal teams, one ballot counting room.

ReaganI need a moment.

Rush LindellWe all do. That's next. So picture this. Friday afternoon, Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center. Federal prosecutor walks in,

Speaker 3Hmm.

Rush Lindellsent by Bill Essayli's office. And according to MSNOW's reporting, the county registrar confirmed he got the public observation tour, the one available to literally anyone.

Speaker 3Any member of the public.

Rush LindellAny member of the public. Now here's where it gets good.

Speaker 3Hmm.

Rush LindellCalifornia AG Rob Bonta hears about the DOJ visit and sends his own monitor to the same room.

Speaker 3Two squads of lawyers watching people count ballots.

Rush LindellThat's it. That's the whole bit. You've got the Department of Justice, federal resources, official capacity, and they're on the public tour with the rest of the field trip.

Speaker 3In fairness, Bonta was pretty clear about why he sent someone. He told MS NOW his office wanted to be present to ensure, quote, nothing crazy is going on.

Rush LindellNothing crazy is going on.

Speaker 3Yeah.

Rush LindellThe federal government dispatched a prosecutor to a ballot center to watch the public tour, so the state dispatched a monitor to watch the prosecutor watch the tour. This is your government at Full capacity.

Speaker 3Look, the absurdity is real, but the underlying point is worth a beat. The DOJ deployed federal resources to monitor a primary election with zero identified fraud. That's not a punchline. That's actually a serious use of federal power.

Rush LindellRight. You know what nobody wants to say? The fraud investigation opened without a single specific allegation. Bonta put it plainly. No details, no specifics, nothing individualized. Yet here we are, two legal teams in the same room watching people sort paper.

Speaker 3Democracy in action.

Rush LindellBeautiful. Okay, but jokes aside, someone actually has to win this thing in November, and that conversation is a different level of serious. Two candidates, one state, and a math problem that does not... not obviously favor one of them. So now we know who's on the November ballot, Becerra and Hilton. Let's talk about what that actually means.

ReaganAnd it starts with Becerra because you can't ignore the historical weight here. According to Fox News, if he wins in November, he'd be California's first Latino governor since 1875, in a state where over 40% of the population is Latino. That's not a footnote.

Rush LindellThat's a real structural advantage. Becerra leads with Latino voters. He brings name recognition from Biden's HHS, and he ran the California AG's office. He's not a fringe candidate.

ReaganRight, and here's where I push back on the easy Republican optimism. Democrats outnumber Republicans by millions of registered voters in California, a state that has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.

Rush LindellSchwarzenegger, the last Republican governor of California, is literally the The Terminator, that's the bar.

Speaker 3So the bar is a movie star with a catchphrase?

Rush LindellAnd here's the thing, Hilton has a real message. His CalAffordable platform, $3 gas, cut electric bills in half, zero income tax on your first $100,000, that hits something genuine. California's cost of living frustration is

Speaker 3Yes.

Rush Lindellreal and it is broad.

Speaker 3I actually think it's the strongest Republican economic

Reaganeconomic pitch California has seen in years- but the mechanism matters, Rush. His tax plan would cut sixty to sixty five billion dollars in state revenue by his own campaign's numbers. Democrats in Sacramento hold a super majority: the math of winning is hard, the math of governing is harder.

Speaker 5OK, fair, but here's what I'd say: even a loss at, I don't know, forty five percent in California, that's not nothing! Nothing, that's a signal-that's a party rebuilding something.

ReaganHmm, that's a legitimate argument. The question is whether Republicans can actually turn cost of living frustration into votes from people who don't usually vote Republican. That's the path. It's narrow, but it exists.

Speaker 5And that question, whether Washington gives California Republicans any tools to work with, that's where things get very interesting very fast.

Speaker 3so

Speaker 5So Washington gives Republicans a tool: the MEGA Act, mail ballots received by Election Day, no universal mail-in voting, no ballot harvesting. Chairman Steil unveiled it in January. Reagan, you've been pretty straight on this one.

Speaker 3there's a real policy question buried in there. Uniform

Rush LindellBallot receipt deadlines? That's a legitimate structural argument. Fourteen states currently accept mail ballots after Election Day,

ReaganRight.

Rush Lindellas long as they're postmarked on time. A national standard isn't inherently crazy.

ReaganAnd here's the thing: Trump wants Congress to pass this before he signs anything else. That's the leverage. So is this real policy or is it election season theater?

Rush LindellDebatably, honestly, I get why people want uniform rules, but vote Votebeat put it plainly: the bill almost certainly fails in the Senate. Republicans control fifty three seats; they need sixty to beat the filibuster. The math isn't there.

ReaganShocking! A Republican priority bill stalls in a Republican Senate.

Rush LindellAnd here's where I push back on my own side a little bit: you can't spend years telling voters mail ballots are fraudulent and then turn around and legislate mail ballots more carefully. Pick a lane.

ReaganThat is the lane; that is the lane; the lane is fraud when we lose, reform when we need votes.

Rush LindellWhich is not exactly a governing philosophy.

ReaganSo let's say the MEGA Act dies in the Senate. What does that actually mean for California Republicans in November?

Rush LindellIt means no cavalry is coming,

ReaganRight.

Rush Lindellno law changes the rules before November. If Hilton advances, he's running under the same ballot counting system that that just produced this controversy. Same timelines, same mail ballot volumes.

ReaganYou know what nobody wants to say? Republicans either figure out how to compete in that system or they don't. A bill they can't pass isn't a strategy.

Rush LindellThat's the straight answer the fraud noise keeps drowning out.

Speaker 3So here's the thing the California Count drama is actually previewing. Come November, if any House races close, we go through this exact fight again. And Republicans are walking in with the same playbook. Call it rigged, file lawsuits, yell at ballot counters.

Rush LindellAnd the historical headwinds are already brutal before any of that. In 18 of 20 midterms since 1946, the president's party lost House seats. The GOP's majority right now is razor thin. Five seats flip and they lose the chamber.

Speaker 3Five-that's it-five seats.

Rush LindellSo the margin for error is basically zero: every competitive district matters, which means every mail ballot in every close race matters.

Speaker 3And here's what gets me: you cannot spend years telling your own voters that mail ballots are corrupt, watch them sit out mail voting, and then when the count goes sideways, call it a conspiracy. That is not a strategy. That is a self fulfilling prophecy with a press release attached.

Rush LindellThe California count controversy is the preview tape: slow returns, Republican candidate leading early, lead evaporates as mail ballots arrive. We've now seen that movie.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellIf November produces three or four races that look exactly like this, and Republicans have no answer beyond "it's rigged," they hand the House back and they handed it back themselves.

Speaker 3They can complain about the system, they can try to reform the system. But doing both while actively convincing their own voters not to use the system, that's not a two front war, that's friendly fire.

Rush LindellThe Republicans who figure out mail voting before November are the ones who'll still have a majority in January; the ones who don't will be on television explaining, again, why close races keep slipping away in the final days of counting.

Speaker 3We all know what's really happening here-the choice is simple: compete or complain. You don't get to do both and win.

ReaganAll right, here's what we covered today: Steve Hilton popping champagne in Huntington Beach on election night, and by Thursday morning the whole story had flipped-that's your Red Mirage, live in real time.

Rush LindellAnd the structural reason behind that flip is the part that should keep Republicans up at night: When your own voters don't use mail ballots, don't expect to be surprised when mail ballots come in against you.

ReaganThat's the whole show right there-one sentence.

Rush LindellThe GOP helped build the problem they're now asking Congress to fix.

ReaganAnd Trump walking out of that Meet the Press interview after, all I have to do is look, I listen to people. That's a whole separate episode.

Rush LindellWe may need it.

ReaganIf you got something out of today, subscribe, drop us a five-star review, and send this to one person who needs to hear it. New episodes every weekday.

Rush LindellThanks for spending the hour with us.

ReaganI'm Rush Lindell. She's Reagan. We'll see you tomorrow.