The Loyalty Purge

BlakeIf the legislative branch always votes whichever way the wind blows, then we have mob rule. That was Massie last night in Kentucky. He lost, and he said it anyway.

MaxWelcome to the Common Thread. I'm Max.

BlakeI'm Blake, and Max, okay, get this, six states voted last night, and the story underneath every single result is the same one.

MaxThe loyalty test.

BlakeRight. So today, Massie's out. According to Al Jazeera. The most expensive House primary in U.S. history just wrapped at over thirty four million dollars in spending, nearly nine point four million of that from AIPAC and pro-Israel groups alone. The Defense Secretary campaigned in the district the day before the vote.

MaxPete Hegseth in Kentucky will overseeing an active Iran military operation? We're going to dig into what that actually means.

BlakeOh, it gets richer.

MaxAnd then Texas. Trump just endorsed A.G. Ken Paxton. Just an over-Senator John Cornyn, one week before their May twenty sixth runoff. Cornyn votes with Trump ninety nine percent of the time. This is apparently about a twenty twenty three loyalty grievance.

BlakeSenate Republicans are not happy. There are real questions about whether that seat is safe in November now.

MaxAnd in Georgia, where Democrats pulled fifty three percent of primary ballots to Republicans forty five percent, that number matters a lot.

BlakeIt does, because it's not just Georgia. That turnout graph is showing up in every state that has voted this cycle.

MaxSo here's the thread we're pulling today: the GOP is being reorganized around one variable-loyalty to Trump. We'll talk about what that costs in November.

BlakeOh, Plus concrete action items at the close—two of them. One involves Article One, Section Six of the Constitution.

MaxWhich you're going to want to read with your family. Okay, let's get into it. Cold open right now. Hmm. Yeah. If the legislative branch always votes with the President, we do have a king.

BlakeMassie said that last night, standing at the podium after he lost.

MaxRight; and cable news clipped the concession and moved on. Nobody sat with that sentence. Okay, so get this: the guy who said that voted with Trump roughly ninety percent of the time in this term.

BlakeNinety percent. Al Jazeera reported this morning he lost the most expensive congressional primary in US history.

Maxthree:

BlakeOver thirty four million dollars in total spending.

MaxFor one house seat in Kentucky!

BlakeIn Kentucky where a thirty second TV spot costs the fraction of what you spend in say New York.

MaxOkay, so what specifically did the ten percent cost him? According to Al Jazeera, three things: he opposed the Iran military action, he pushed the Epstein files and he voted against parts of the big bill over debt concerns.

BlakeSo opposing a war. Demanding government transparency, worrying about the national debt.

MaxHmm. Those were the heresies; and Trump dispatched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to campaign in the district the day before the vote.

BlakeThe Defense Secretary doing campaign stops!

MaxYeah, yeah, hours before a planned military operation was reportedly set to launch, by the way.

BlakeTotally normal Tuesday.

MaxTotally normal Tuesday in twenty twenty six. NBC News had Massie going down fifty four to forty six with seventy two percent of votes

Speaker 3in.

MaxThe votes counted.

BlakeAnd here's the part that keeps me up a little. His sins weren't actually anti Trump; they were original flavor MAGA.

MaxYet exactly the question nobody's asking out loud: if you purge the guy who wanted the Epstein files and worried about the debt, what does that tell you about what the movement actually is now?

BlakeMassie called it mob rule versus a republic. He said that walking out the door.

Speaker 4Wow.

BlakeAnd the question for this whole week is whether that's just a sore loser framing. streaming, or whether the numbers actually back them up.

MaxThe numbers are interesting and expensive, so let's start there. So here's the part the press keeps glossing over: Gowran won fifty four to forty six, according to Al Jazeera, with seventy two percent of the vote counted. Fine,

BlakeMm-hmm.

Maxbut look at where the money actually came from.

BlakeBecause everyone's running the "Trump wins again" headline. That's the easy read.

MaxRight, and it's not wrong. But Al Jazeera broke down the spending, and more than nineteen million dollars was spent to benefit Gowran, with nearly nine point four million of that from AIPAC and pro Israel groups, not from MAGA super PACs-from AIPAC. So the single largest driver of this race was foreign policy,

Blakenot Trump's domestic agenda. Exactly,

Maxand Massie said it himself on ABC the Sunday before the vote. He said, That's why AIPAC has dumped another three million into my race this weekend. And he voted against foreign aid across the board,

Blakeright? right? Not Israel specifically.

MaxEvery time—Egypt, Ukraine, Syria, Israel—he's been consistent for years—AIPAC didn't care, they called him the most anti-Israel Republican in the House.

BlakeOK, so here's my question: the press is framing this as Trump flexing his endorsement muscle, and sure, but if you strip out the AIPAC money, does this race even get close?

MaxProbably not. Massie told CBS News he estimated Trump's endorsement knocked knocked him from eighty per cent support down to sixty. AIPAC spending is what made it a coin flip.

BlakeTwo different operations running the same race. Trump wants loyalty on domestic stuff. AIPAC wants loyalty on foreign aid. And those interests just so happen to align on one Kentucky congressman.

MaxAnd then there's Hegseth. The Secretary of Defense showed up in the district the day before the vote. NBC News confirmed he traveled to Kentucky Monday to campaign with With Galrahn saying he was there in his "personal capacity.

BlakePersonal capacity, while overseeing an active military operation against Iran!

MaxThat is the detail that should stop

BlakeYeah.

Maxpeople cold. The Pentagon's own guidance says presidentially appointed officials should be careful about partisan activity during election years.

BlakeAnd the rally was literally advertised using his official title, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Not exactly a private citizen moment.

MaxFor the lawyers I'm here as a regular guy. The lawyers were not convinced.

BlakeSo if that's the price of opposing Iran and pushing Epstein files, what does that tell every other Republican watching?

MaxIt tells them the cost is real, and speaking of loyalty tests with different math attached, Trump picked up the phone that same day and called another race, one where the guy voting with him ninety nine percent of the time opposed

Speaker 3him.

MaxTime apparently still wasn't enough. Now, flip that on its head: same day as Kentucky, Trump dropped an endorsement in the Texas Senate runoff.

Blakerunoff against John Cornyn, a four-term incumbent senator, who voted with Trump more than 99% of the time, his words, not mine. According to NBC News, Cornyn literally posted that on his campaign website the morning Trump went the other direction. He had a photo of Trump on his pinned post, proposed renaming a highway after the guy.

MaxDeadpan, Interstate Forty Seven, named after the forty seventh president, and it still wasn't enough.

BlakeSo what was the actual reason, because that's wild.

MaxTrump said-and I'm pulling this from his Truth Social post per CNBC-he was not supportive of me when times were tough. Back in twenty twenty three, Cornyn said his time had passed him by. I then endorsed him anyway in January twenty twenty four.

BlakeSo three year old quote, one honest moment, that's what you're paying for.

MaxThat's what ninety nine percent buys you. Nothing if the memory is long enough.

BlakeOK, and the guy Trump backed, Paxton, he's got his own issues.

MaxWhere do you start? Felony securities fraud case settled. Impeachment in twenty twenty three acquitted. His wife filed for divorce on. On "Biblical Grounds," according to NPR, Cornyn's campaign was hammering all of this.

BlakeRight. So Senate Republican leadership was backing Cornyn hard, and then Lindsey Graham, according to NBC News, said after the endorsement that the Texas race is now going to be "three times more expensive for Republicans.

MaxThree times!" And James Talarico, the Democrat in this race, already raised twenty seven million dollars in the first quarter. NPR had that number. He was leading both Cornyn and Paxton in some polls even before today.

BlakeSo let me make sure I'm saying this right: The most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history per NPR, Cornyn spent close to $100 million in ads, and Trump just handed the whole thing to someone who might be harder to elect in November.

MaxThat's the loyalty calculation. And here's the real question heading into November: Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to flip. To flip the Senate. NBC had that math today. If Texas is suddenly a real race, the map gets very complicated very fast.

BlakeAnd that's actually the thread connecting all of this. Georgia's got a runoff now, Pennsylvania's governor race is set, Democrats are quietly building while the GOP is running loyalty tests.

MaxThe internal audit is expensive. Let's see what the full map looks like.

BlakeSwitching gears to the rest of the map, Georgia and Pennsylvania, because while Kentucky was burning all the oxygen, some genuinely big stuff happened.

MaxSo Georgia Senate first. Three Republicans fought the right to face Jon Ossoff in November. Nobody hit 50% and according to NBC News, Mike Collins and Derek Dooley are heading to a June 16th runoff. Buddy Carter's out.

BlakeAnd Ossoff is already sitting on over $32 million. million dollars cash on hand, he's not exactly shaking.

MaxNo, he is not. But here's the number that actually caught my eye, Max. NPR reported Democrats pulled roughly 53 percent of Georgia's primary ballots, Republicans 45 percent.

BlakeWait, in Georgia?

MaxIn Georgia. And that's not a one-day fluke. Early voting alone, Democrats had a 15-point turnout advantage. The record for early voting in a Georgia primary? Shattered.

BlakeOkay, so get this: in twenty twenty two, Republicans had a fifteen point early vote advantage. Democrats just flipped that entire gap-that's a thirty point swing-in a midterm primary, with no presidential race on the ballot. Now, is that real enthusiasm or is it the energized opposition effect, the wave that shows up in primaries and disappears by November?

MaxI think you have to take it seriously when it's showing up in In every state that's voted, NPR tracked it. Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia fits a pattern,

Blakenot Right.

Maxa one-off.

BlakeAnd then there's Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Atlanta mayor, wins the Democratic governor's primary outright, no runoff needed. According to NBC News, she cleared 50 percent. She could become the first Black woman governor in U.S. history if she wins in November.

MaxGeorgia hasn't elected a Democratic governor in 20 years. In twenty four years.

BlakeRight, so that is a genuine race.

MaxPennsylvania is a quick one. The Governor's race is set: Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro versus Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity. PBS reported Shapiro's endorsed candidates swept their congressional primaries. Democrats are targeting four swing districts, aiming at

BlakeMm

Maxa

Blake-hmm.

MaxHouse majority.

BlakeSo the scoreboard tonight: Kentucky is the headline, but Georgia and Pennsylvania are the argument. The GOP spent the day fighting itself. Democrats spent the day organizing. And that distinction between a party running loyalty tests and a party running candidates, that's the thing worth sitting with. Because it adds up to something bigger. And that's where we're going right now. So here's the thing underneath all three stories tonight.

MaxKentucky, Texas Georgia Yeah.

BlakeThe party is being sorted by exactly one variable, not policy, not voting record, not constituent service-loyalty.

MaxAnd Time magazine got Steve Voss, political scientist at the University of Northern Kentucky, on record saying something that should make every Republican officeholder nervous: He said, if a Republican cannot survive after resisting Trump in Northern Kentucky, there aren't many places where a Republican could.

BlakeSuburban, ideological, not a working class MAGA stronghold, that was supposed to be the safe space for independent minded Republicans. It's gone. Yeah.

MaxOkay, so here's the rational actor case for what Trump is doing, because I want to be fair to the strategy. A compliant caucus you can actually govern with may be worth more to him than members who occasionally say no.

BlakeHmm, I hear that. The trade is, accept some general election risk in November for a legislature that actually executes your agenda. But look at the math: Democrats need a net three House seats to flip the majority. Cook Political Report has fourteen Republican seats rated true...

Maxbrew toss-ups right now.

Speaker 4Wow!

Max14. And that's before the Texas Senate seat gets priced in. You're running a candidate with a settled felony fraud case and an impeachment on his record into what was already a tightening race. Nothing to worry about there. And the Democratic primary turnout data keeps showing up everywhere. 53 to 45 in Georgia.

BlakeSimilar patterns in every other State that voted.

MaxMm-hmm!

Speaker 4So the question is whether Trump is making a calculated trade or whether the people running this operation just haven't looked at a November map recently.

BlakeThat's the thing. Massie himself said in his concession that a Legislature that always agrees with the Executive is mob rule, not a republic. That's not fringe libertarian stuff.

Speaker 4It's the civics textbook. It's the founder's whole argument for why Article One exists.

BlakeDiscs And the party just spent thirty four million dollars to reject it in one House primary.

Speaker 4So what do we do with all of this? We live in districts; we have representatives; some of them are about to face exactly this choice.

BlakeAnd there's something very specific you can do about it this week, something that takes about ten minutes and costs nothing.

Speaker 4So here's what you do with all this-two things, and they're both genuinely easy.

BlakeOkay, I'm ready, hit me.

Speaker 4First one-find out when your congressional district's next primary is-not the general, the primary-because what happened in Kentucky is coming to a district near you. These loyalty challenges are not a national story that happens somewhere else.

BlakeRight, and if there's a sitting incumbent who's broken with the White House even once...

Speaker 4Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 5Watch that race-that's where the pressure lands first.

Speaker 4Exactly. Now, the second one-and I love this one, Blake-pull up Article One, Section Six of the Constitution-the speech and debate clause.

Speaker 5Okay, so for folks who haven't read it-

Speaker 4It is two paragraphs, literally. The founders wrote this specific protection for legislative independence in two paragraphs, and the core idea is that members of Congress- For any speech or debate in either house shall not be questioned in any other place.

Speaker 5Right; which means the executive branch cannot punish a legislator for how they vote. That was the whole design.

Speaker 4Read it with your kids. Seriously, it takes four minutes, and it answers the exact question this week raised: Did the founders think Congress should be independent of the president, or an extension of him?

Speaker 5Spoiler: they had a pretty strong opinion on that.

Speaker 4Pretty strong, yeah. Here's something from my world, Max:

Speaker 5Uh-huh.

Speaker 4when every vote in a legislative body is predictable because every member answers to one person, you lose the price discovery function of deliberation entirely; a legislature that can't surprise you has already stopped working.

Speaker 5That's a really clean way to put it.

Speaker 4It's what happens when you run Congress like a single desk brokerage.

Speaker 5Okay, that's the line; so, check your district's primary calendar and read two paragraphs of the Constitution—that's the homework, no textbook required.

Speaker 4And talk to someone about it. It doesn't have to be a debate. Just ask the question out loud: What do we actually want Congress to be? The answers are more interesting than people expect. Okay, so here's the one thing that sticks with me from this week—

Speaker 5Yeah?

Speaker 4A guy who voted with the President ninety percent of the time lost the most expensive House primary in history.

Speaker 5Wow.

Speaker 4Ninety percent wasn't enough.

Speaker 5And Blake laid it out clean. Massie's so-called sins were original flavor MAGA positions. The loyalty test has moved past policy entirely.

Speaker 4Right; that's the thread. The GOP is being reorganized around one variable now, and Tuesday night made that official.

Speaker 5If that landed for you, share this with one person who needs to hear it. Subscribe so you never miss a Saturday, and do the action item. Look up your district's next primary date. See if a loyalty challenge is forming near you.

Speaker 4Read Article One Section Six with your family this week. Seriously, it's short and it matters.

Speaker 5Shorter than Massie's concession speech, at least.

Speaker 4Way shorter. Thanks for being here, everybody. We'll see you next Saturday.

Speaker 5Take care of yourselves, and your town needs you in the room.