Blake Lively vs. Baldoni: Who Actually Won?

Becca Hartwell: Welcome back to Star Witness. I'm Becca Hartwell and Miles. I have to say, this one has been circling our feed for months. Miles: Becca Hartwell, it really has, and it finally landed. Blake Lively, Justin Baldoni, Settlement. Becca Hartwell: Two weeks before trial. Miles: Two weeks. Becca Hartwell: And then, wait for it, she walked the Met Gala carpet that same night. Miles: Same night. Becca Hartwell: In a two thousand six archival Atelier Versace gown solo. Hello, totally calm. I cannot. Miles: Very understated. Very I did not just settle a federal lawsuit this morning. Becca Hartwell: Right? Okay, so here's what we're getting into today. We start with the settlement itself, Variety confirmed no money changed hands, and according to Deadline, Lively's motion for treble damages under California Civil Code Section 47.1 is still very much alive. Miles: So Baldoni's team is out here saying she didn't get a cent of the... of the 300 million she was seeking, and Lively's team is saying this was never about money. Both can't be the whole story. Becca Hartwell: That's the thing! And then we go back to the beginning, the August 2024 press tour, the New York Times piece, the smear campaign texts showing a $30,000 a month social media operation, without Miles: without fingerprints. Becca Hartwell: fingerprints, Miles: Wow! Becca Hartwell: and then April 26th. Next, 2026, a judge dismisses 10 of 13 of Lively's claims, including all the sexual harassment counts. That ruling basically rewrote the whole settlement math. Miles: It flipped everything, plus the online war, Lively losing over 1.2 million Instagram followers while Baldoni's count grew. It mirrors Depp-Heard almost exactly. Becca Hartwell: Nodding, we're going to dig into all of it. The legal scoreboard, the public record and what actually comes next. Miles: If both sides claimed victory, we'll figure out if either of them has a case. Becca Hartwell: This is where it gets good. Let's get into it. Okay, so picture this. It's May 4th, 2026. A settlement drops in one of the most watched celebrity lawsuits in years. And then hours later, Blake Lively walks the Met Gala carpet in a 2006 archival Atelier Versace gown. Pastels 13-foot train radiating absolute calm. Miles: Like nothing happened. Becca Hartwell: Like nothing happened. No Ryan Reynolds, solo, her first Met appearance in four years. Miles: And the Internet completely lost its mind. Becca Hartwell: Right? And the question that split everyone down the middle was that calculated image control or just the plan? Miles: I mean, here's the thing: according to TMZ, her attendance was locked in weeks before the settlement. Anna Wintour's personal invite-she didn't manufacture the timing. Becca Hartwell: Sure, sure; but you have to admit she knew the timing on the day, Miles; the settlement drops, then she's on those steps by sundown. Miles: Becca Hartwell, the woman's lawyer, spent a year and a half going to war. She had three remaining claims left after a judge threw out ten of her original thirteen. Ten! Becca Hartwell: Wait-ten out of thirteen? Miles: Ten, including sexual harassment and defamation, gone. Variety confirmed the settlement came together two weeks before trial was set to start, on May eighteenth, and per NBC News, talks kicked off in earnest after that ruling. Becca Hartwell: So she settled from a weaker position. Miles: Nodding; and then Baldoni's lawyer, Bryan Freedman, publicly questioned whether showing up at the Met Gala was "the wisest choice." Baldoni's camp was not quiet about it. Becca Hartwell: Of course they weren't. Miles: But here's what I keep coming back to: no money changed hands; Variety reported it, and NBC News confirmed it; she walked away with no payout. Becca Hartwell: Right; but her team is framing that as a win. The joint statement said Lively's "concerns deserved to be heard. Miles: That's a sentence you negotiate, not something you just say. Becca Hartwell: Exactly; and she still has a pending motion for attorney's fees and damages, so it's not fully over. Miles: Not by a long shot. Becca Hartwell: So the image that burned into everyone's feed-a woman in pastels glowing on those steps-was it defiance or deflection? Miles: Maybe both. The real question is how we even got here, because that carpet walk didn't come out of nowhere. Becca Hartwell: No, it did not-and the story of how a movie about domestic violence became its own kind of legal battlefield? The field goes all the way back to August 2024 and a press tour that started raising some very loud alarm bells. So back in August 2024, something weird was already visible to anyone paying attention. Baldoni was MIA from the press tour, and Lively was out there promoting a movie about domestic violence by launching a hair product line and telling fans to grab your florals. Miles: The tone disconnect was jarring. A film about leaving an abuser and the marketing felt like a lifestyle brand launch. much. Becca Hartwell: Right, right!" And the internet noticed immediately. But the real detonation came December twenty first twenty twenty four. Miles: Two things happened the same day. Lively filed a complaint with the California Civil Rights Department alleging sexual harassment and a coordinated smear campaign. And that same day, Becca Hartwell: Wow. Miles: the New York Times published a 4,000-word piece titled "We Can Bury Anyone Inside a Hollywood Smear Machine." Becca Hartwell: Same day. Miles: Same day. According to Variety, WME dropped Baldoni hours after that article ran. Hours! Becca Hartwell: And his Voices of Solidarity award got rescinded on top of that—all before a single court Miles: No Becca Hartwell: finding. Miles: which is the thing I keep coming back to: you lose your agency, your award, your public standing based on allegations, not a verdict, not even a hearing yet. Becca Hartwell: I mean, I get what you're saying, but those texts in the New York Times piece were specific. The phrase, we can bury anyone, didn't come from nowhere. Miles: Sure, but Baldoni's version was that those messages were cherry-picked, stripped of context. His attorney called them doctored. Becca Hartwell: And then, January 16th, 2025. 5. According to external reporting, Baldoni's team filed a $400 million countersuit against Lively, Ryan Reynolds and their publicist Leslie Sloane. Extortion, defamation, invasion of privacy, the works. Miles: A 179-page complaint. Nobody in this story does anything small. Becca Hartwell: Nobody. And his version was essentially that Lively used false harassment claims to aims to seize creative control of the film, then weaponized the press to clean up her own reputation. Miles: So now you've got dueling narratives, dueling lawsuits, and zero clarity on who actually had the stronger case. Becca Hartwell: Which is exactly why those internal documents matter. The texts that got unsealed, the emails about executing plans without fingerprints, that's where abstract allegations turn into something you can actually examine. examine. Miles: And that's the piece that discovery cracked open. Becca Hartwell: So, the messages that actually moved this case-let's get into it. Melissa Nathan, Baldoni's publicist, emails Wayfarer partner Jamey Heath in August 2024, introducing social media contractor Jed Wallace. According to Yahoo News, she wrote they'd be going for, quote, $30,000 p.m. for three months. Miles: Wow. $30,000 a month. And Wallace himself writes back that he'll operate. I'm looking at the NewsNation reporting here, in lockstep with Nathan's firm, but engaged separately. Becca Hartwell: Engaged separately, meaning no fingerprints. Miles: Right, and Nathan's colleague, Katie Case, spells it out. The plan is to execute, quote, all without fingerprints. $90,000 total over three months. Becca Hartwell: That's not a PR plan. That's an op. Miles: I mean, Wallace says he was just monitoring social media. That's his story. Becca Hartwell: Sure, thirty grand a month to scroll Twitter. Miles: Very expensive lurking. Becca Hartwell: Then, January, twenty twenty sixth, this is where it gets good, or bad, depending on your corner, Judge Liman throws out ten of Lively's thirteen claims. Miles: Seriously, all the sexual harassment counts gone. Why? She was an independent contractor, not an employee, Speaker 3: and Miles: - And the filming happened in New Jersey, not California, so California law didn't apply. Becca Hartwell: Procedural, not factual—her lawyers were clear about that. But the public didn't read the fine print. Miles: So she goes into a trial where she can't say the word sexual harassment to a jury. Her leverage has shifted completely. Becca Hartwell: NBC News reported settlement talks started in earnest last month, after that ruling, not before. Miles: Which tracks? Now flip that on its head. The public had only Speaker 3: heard about it. Miles: The public had already formed its verdict long before April second; the internet had its trial running parallel the whole time. Becca Hartwell: And spoiler, the internet's verdict looked nothing like the courtrooms. So the battle moved online fast, and honestly, Miles, the numbers are kind of staggering. Miles: How so? Becca Hartwell: According to Yahoo, Lively lost over 1.2 million Instagram followers as the feud went public. Baldoni, meanwhile, was gaining, Miles: Gaining while being the defendant in a harassment case. Becca Hartwell: right? And the sharpest single drop for Lively? January 2025, right after Baldoni filed his... His four hundred million dollar countersuit. Miles: Wow. Becca Hartwell: The court of public opinion flipped almost overnight. Miles: Here's what I keep coming back to, though. Follower counts. What do they actually tell us? People unfollow for a hundred different reasons. Becca Hartwell: Okay, that's fair. But here's the thing. The Betty Buzz data backs it up. Fox News got court filings showing Lively's sparkling beverage brand saw a sharp sales decline starting mid-August 2024. Twenty four. Right when the press tour went sideways. Retail partners described as spooked. Kroger calls. Princess Cruises compliance committee flagging her name. Miles: Kroger? Becca Hartwell: Yes, Kroger. You know it's bad when the grocery aisle gets nervous. Miles: Okay, so the commercial damage is real, I'll give you that. But here's my problem: this whole thing tracked almost identically to Depp v. Heard. The Reddit threads, the coordinated hashtags, both sides accusing the other of running... running bot campaigns. Becca Hartwell: Yes, exactly. Miles: And in that case, the online verdict and the legal verdict were completely different things. The crowd picked a winner months before any courtroom did. Becca Hartwell: Which is what makes the follower numbers tricky, because was that organic public opinion, or was it partly the very smear operation Lively was alleging? Miles: That's the question nobody can cleanly answer. The documented campaign was real, but the public shift felt real. Felt organic enough that even Lively's supporters had to admit the pressed door optics genuinely hurt her. Becca Hartwell: Agreed, and her Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants co-stars, Paul Feig, they came out for her fast after the NYT piece, but that initial solidarity got quieter as Baldoni's countersuit introduced his version of events. Miles: The internet didn't want nuance, it wanted a villain. Becca Hartwell: Shocking development in 2025. Miles: Truly unprecedented. Becca Hartwell: So we've got a fandom war with real commercial casualties and no clean resolution online, which honestly makes what actually happened on paper even more interesting. Miles: Right. Because the settlement terms, they do not match the noise level of this case at all. Speaker 4: So the settlement document drops, and immediately both sides sprint to the microphone claiming victory, which is telling. Miles: Right, right. Because if everyone won, someone's lying. Speaker 4: Deadpan, or both are spinning-here's what we actually know: no money changed hands; Wayfarer filed a court notice saying Lively dismissed her three remaining claims without them paying "a cent. Miles: And Bryan Freedman, Baldoni's attorney, told ABC News flat out: "This is a win and total victory for the Wayfarer parties. Speaker 4: Ecstatic, apparently. Miles: "Make Sonic." Meanwhile, Lively's team called it a "resounding victory. Victory; same settlement, completely opposite read. Speaker 4: So here's where it gets genuinely interesting. The joint statement signed by both legal teams says, and I'm quoting, "Concerns raised by Ms Lively deserved to be heard." Her lawyers immediately called that an admission. Becca Hartwell: Mm-hmm. Miles: I mean, I hear you, but read that carefully: "deserve to be heard" is not "we believe her." It's diplomatically crafted to mean almost Speaker 3: the opposite. Miles: Almost nothing. Speaker 4: Or it ends, quote, "the fiction that Ms. Lively fabricated claims." That's straight from her legal team. Miles: Look, I get why they frame it that way, but the scoreboard reads "ten of thirteen claims dismissed by a judge," including every sexual Speaker 3: abuse claim. Becca Hartwell: Sexual harassment count, every defamation count-Baldoni wasn't even named personally in the three that survived long enough to settle. Miles: Yeah, that part stinks. Becca Hartwell: If you're grading on legal merit, that's not a draw. Miles: Okay, but hold on. The case is not closed. According to Deadline, Lively explicitly retained her motion for attorney's fees, treble damages and punitive damages under California Civil Code Section 47.1. That motion is still sitting before the judge. Becca Hartwell: TREBLE DAMAGES—so the financial question is actually still open. Miles: Very much open. Becca Hartwell: Wow! Miles: That 2023 California law protects accusers from retaliatory defamation suits, Baldoni's countersuit got thrown out, and she may still collect damages because of it. Becca Hartwell: Okay, that's not nothing. Freedman called it a very narrow issue, but Treble damages in a Speaker 3: case Becca Hartwell: in a case this size could be significant. Miles: And there's a separate active lawsuit, Stephanie Jones v. Jennifer Abel, where both Lively and Baldoni could end up testifying anyway. Becca Hartwell: So it really does end with us—just not yet. Miles: You went there. Becca Hartwell: I do. Look, the honest answer is who won depends entirely on what you were asking the case to do, the question of what all this means for accountability, for the Speaker 3: public. Becca Hartwell: For the public, that's the part we still have to sit with. Miles: So here's where we land: May eighteenth was supposed to be the first day of jury selection—six to eight weeks of trial, cross-examination, all of it—instead, a quiet document filed in federal court in Manhattan. Becca Hartwell: And per Variety confirmed by NBC News, no money changed hands. Wayfarer filed a May 8th court briefing Lively dropped her three remaining claims without the Wayfarer defendants paying, quote, Quote, assent. Miles: She went in seeking three hundred million dollars. Becca Hartwell: Got zero. Miles: On paper, that is a rough scoreboard. But here's my thing, Miles. The smear campaign evidence, the without fingerprints emails, the Signal deletions, the thirty thousand dollar a month operation, that's all permanently in the public record. A jury never ruled on it, but it exists. Becca Hartwell: I hear you. And look, the court of public opinion absolutely- Absolutely ran its verdict before a single witness was sworn in, but the sexual harassment claims didn't survive a judge's scrutiny. Baldoni wasn't even a personal defendant by the time settlement talks started. Miles: Right, which is exactly what makes this so frustrating. According to NBC News, talks began in earnest after that April dismissal. The strongest claims were already gone. Becca Hartwell: Talkingly, Freedman, Baldoni's attorney, told TMZ she was, quote, scared to- dared to take the witness stand. That's his framing. Her team's framing, this was never about money. It was about getting those documents public. Miles: And both of those things can be true at the same time. Becca Hartwell: Yeah, which is sort of the whole problem. Nobody got cross-examined, nobody was found liable, and now both sides are waving the same settlement as a trophy. Miles: There's also no NDA. Baldoni can still tell his story, a source told InTouch he's exploring a tell-all book. book. Becca Hartwell: So Speaker 4: Wow. Becca Hartwell: this isn't actually over. Miles: The 47.1 motion is still pending before the judge. That's where potential damages and attorney's fees live. Deadline called it a ticking bomb for Baldoni's team. Becca Hartwell: Ecstatic might be premature. Miles: Just a little. Becca Hartwell: Here's the question I keep sitting with. If the strongest claims didn't survive judicial review, what does it mean that the cultural reckoning happened anyway? Anyway, their careers moved, brands flinched, follower counts shifted, all before a verdict that never came. Miles: The court of public opinion doesn't wait for evidence standards. It never has. And a settlement doesn't resolve that. It just ends the news cycle. Becca Hartwell: May 18th, the date nobody showed up for. Miles: Okay, so that's a wrap on Blake Lively versus Justin Baldoni. And honestly, what a case to dig into. Becca Hartwell: Right? And the image that keeps sticking with me is Lively walking the Met Gala carpet solo hours after the settlement dropped. No Ryan Reynolds, first Met appearance in four years, cool as anything. Miles: Playfully, like the lawsuit was just a minor errand she ran before the party. Becca Hartwell: Exactly. And look, the scoreboard is genuinely complicated here. No money changed hands, 10 of 13 claims gone, but that 47.1 motion is still sitting with the judge. Miles: Thoughtfully, both sides claiming victory, neither side fully wrong. That's the takeaway, Miles. When the legal outcome is this murky, the public record becomes the real verdict. Becca Hartwell: Hard to argue with that. Miles: With energy, if you've got a celebrity case you want us to... Want us to put on trial? Drop it in a review or tag us at StarWitnessPod. New episodes every Wednesday, so hit subscribe so you don't miss the next one. Becca Hartwell: Warmly, thanks for being here. We'll see you in the courtroom. Miles: Smiling, court adjourned.