Thursday: Johnson Punts the Shutdown Past Nov. 3

Rush LindellWelcome in, welcome in. I'm here at Reagan. I'm already fired up.

ReaganI can tell. You've got that look.

Rush LindellThe House just passed a stopgap 370 to 48. That's not a vote count, that's a landslide. Uh-

ReaganOr it's a bunch of nervous incumbents reading the calendar.

Rush LindellWe'll fight about that in a minute. Funding runs through December 11th, and Speaker Johnson's already calling it a win.

ReaganA win? He pushed the fight past the midterms and called it a touchdown.

Rush LindellWe'll see if that framing survives the hour. Then we're tracing how this year gave us two record-length shutdowns, and who actually owns them.

ReaganBoth sides ran the same playbook. Nobody wants to claim that part.

Rush LindellAnd wait till you hear how close this whole bill came to dying on the floor before it ever got here.

ReaganThat's the part nobody's talking about.

Rush LindellWe are, but first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's Precious Metals Leader since 1997.

ReaganAll right, let's start where the votes actually happened.

Rush LindellThe floor. Reagan, take us in. Before we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. Thread 70 to 48. Sit with that for a second.

ReaganIt's not exactly a nail-biter, Rush.

Rush LindellIt's not a vote, it's a hostage exchange, where both sides quietly agree nobody gets hurt this month.

ReaganTell me how you really feel.

Rush LindellI'm naming it right now the Incumbent Protection Act. Forget the official title.

ReaganYou're gonna run that bit into the ground all season, aren't you?

Rush LindellEvery single week till December.

ReaganFine. But walk me through why the number bothers you. GovExec reported funding was set to lapse September 30th, and the House acted Tuesday, almost a month early. That's Congress actually finishing something on time.

Rush LindellSure, if finishing means moving the fight past an election instead of having it. Same funding levels just pushed to December 11th. That's the whole maneuver.

ReaganNPR reported it passed with bipartisan support extending funding past the midterms. That's not nothing.

Rush LindellIt's not nothing. It's also not brave. 19 Republicans, 29 Democrats voted no. Heritage Review ran the floor tally, which means the objectors were a rounding error on both sides.

ReaganSo now a near unanimous bipartisan vote is the suspicious outcome?

Rush LindellWhen it lands five weeks before ballots go out? Yeah. Nobody wanted to be the guy explaining a shutdown vote in a campaign ad.

ReaganI'll grant you the timing's no accident, but defensible governance and cowardice aren't the same diagnosis for the same vote.

Rush LindellWe'll find out, because on December 11th, the can stops rolling. There's nowhere left to kick it.

ReaganAnd what happens to your Incumbent Protection Act then?

Rush LindellThen we see if three-seventy votes was courage or just a really good hiding spot before an election. Speaking of hiding spots-

ReaganThe man who called this vote sounded pretty confident about it, didn't he?

Rush LindellConfident is one word for it. So what exactly did he tell reporters he was avoiding? Building on that, Johnson stood at the podium Tuesday morning and told reporters Congress is going to avoid the threat of a shutdown, per GovExec.

ReaganLike he wrestled it to the ground personally.

Rush LindellRight? And get this, his own press office titled the release around stopping another Democrat government shutdown. That's a blame release, Reagan, plain and simple.

ReaganI'll grant you that headline's about politics, but avoiding a lapse during a campaign season doesn't automatically make it cowardice.

Rush LindellThen name the fight. What specific policy win was actually winnable in September that he punted past the midterms?

ReaganHonestly, I don't think one existed. Full-year bills weren't written yet, which is a different problem than nerve.

Rush LindellSo there it is. No fight lost because there was never a fight to have. He's bragging about ducking a punch nobody threw.

ReaganThat's still different from calling it cowardice. Congressman Bob Onder told the Christian Science Monitor the House tackled this early instead of waiting for the 11th hour.

Rush LindellEarly? The vote landed two days before the old funding ran dry.

ReaganTwo days counts as early by this Congress's track record, unfortunately.

Rush LindellThat's not a defense. That's a eulogy for the process.

ReaganCareful. That's your obituary voice.

Rush LindellRight? And get this, his own press office titled the release around stopping another Democrat government shutdown. Oh, I'm getting to that math because it's the whole reason he walked onto that floor with zero ammunition.

ReaganZero's the right word. Wait till you hear how many of those 12 bills are actually finished.

Rush LindellBuilding on that math, Reagan, three of 12, that's the real scoreboard nobody's reading.

ReaganThree House bills passed, zero from the Senate. Government Executive's report from yesterday lays out exactly why leadership had nothing left but a patch.

Rush LindellZero. Not close. Not almost, zero.

ReaganAnd NPR's reporting fills in a piece you didn't have. Bipartisan Senate talks on the full year bills were actually happening going into August recess.

Rush LindellWait, they were talking?

ReaganThey were talking, then recess hit, nothing got resolved, and leadership walked back in with the same 12 bills sitting untouched.

Rush LindellSo the patch wasn't a strategy. It was what's left after the real work didn't happen.

ReaganRight. And here's what that patch actually costs agencies. They can't plan past whatever date the CR expires, so they're budgeting quarter to quarter instead of year to year.

Rush LindellWhich means-

ReaganContracts get delayed, hiring slows, and by default, whatever Congress spent last year just carries forward, even if the world changed underneath it.

Rush LindellSo the government isn't deciding how much to spend. It's just running last year's number on autopilot.

ReaganThat's close to it, yeah.

Rush LindellAnd here's my frame, Reagan. A Congress that can't agree on the number still spends the number. That bill doesn't vanish. It lands on whoever's holding dollars while the value quietly erodes underneath them.

ReaganThat's a nice segue.

Rush LindellIt is actually, because my friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one oz Silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now. And Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganHere's what you need to know. Priced below spot, Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person, new customers only.

Rush LindellFree shipping, fully insured by Lear, and this is a 24-hour offer only.

ReaganSpot price doesn't even include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable, sought-after coins in the world. Backed by the US government for weight and purity, one oz of .999 fine silver, IRA-eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

ReaganGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone.

Rush Lindellwww.rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone.

Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com. So that's the mechanics of governing by patch quarter to quarter planning. Last year's levels on repeat.

Rush LindellAnd that's not new. That's the same pattern that produced two record long lapses this past year alone.

ReaganWhich is exactly the record both parties are about to spend the next few weeks blaming each other for.

Rush LindellForty-Three days last fall, Seventy-Six after that, two record shutdowns, one calendar year, and now everybody's rewriting who pulled the trigger.

ReaganNPR's timeline on the first one is pretty clear. Senate Democrats held their votes over the health insurance premium subsidies set to expire.

Rush LindellRight, the subsidy cliff. They picked that hill, held it 43 days, and paychecks stopped for air traffic controllers, TSA, half the federal workforce.

ReaganA lot of them, yes. But the second shutdown wasn't Democrats holding out.

Rush LindellNo, that one's the other side of the aisle. 76 days at DHS.

ReaganThe Washington Times reported Republicans only ended that one by funding immigration enforcement through reconciliation, going around the filibuster entirely.

Rush LindellSo the party lecturing everybody about negotiating skipped negotiating altogether.

ReaganThat's the part I want us honest about. Both parties ran the exact same play this year. Withhold your vote, force the crisis, get your priority funded.

Rush LindellAnd both are campaigning like they'd never dream of it.

ReaganDemocrats are running ads on the DHS shutdown. Republicans are running ads on the subsidy fight. Nobody's running the ad that says, "We did it, too."

Rush LindellBecause that ad doesn't win in November.

ReaganWhich is the real story, not which side's worse, but that the tool worked, so nobody's giving it up.

Rush Lindell119 days of shutdown between the two of them combined. That number belongs on every mailer, and it isn't.

ReaganWon't be either, not with December sitting right there as the next deadline.

Rush LindellSpeaking of the floor almost going dark on this very bill, wait till you hear how close Tuesday's vote actually got. Building on that ledger, wait till you hear who almost blew the whole vote up.

ReaganThe rule vote, right.

Rush LindellFive Republicans voted no on the rule itself. Chip Roy, Ralph Norman among them, the Daily Caller reported.

ReaganAnd the party holding the House, the Senate, and the White House needed Democrats to save it.

Rush LindellTwo Democrats, two, crossed the aisle to keep the floor open for the bill that keeps the government's lights on.

ReaganThat's the punchline, isn't it?

Rush LindellThe majority in charge of everything needed the minority to open the doors. Beat. Say that sentence slow.

ReaganDemocracy brought to you by two people who weren't even supposed to show up.

Rush LindellExactly.

ReaganRoy posted his objections before the vote even happened. The Daily Caller flagged two of them, a delayed ban on hemp-derived THC, and zero new money for immigration enforcement.

Rush LindellForget the government shutting down. Forget it. What about the gummies?

ReaganHe'd say the point is priorities, and maybe he's got one there.

Rush LindellOne.

ReaganFive guys got tagged as difficult. Really, it's the leadership team that didn't finish the deal before the deadline.

Rush LindellSo the rebels weren't wrong. They were just early.

ReaganEarly and outvoted, which tells you something about where the real fight in this majority actually is.

Rush LindellBecause buried in that same bill text, wait for it, there's a rule change nobody's talking about yet.

ReaganGo on.

Rush LindellNot yet. That one needs its own minute.

ReaganBuilding on that mess on the floor, the real story's in the text.

Rush LindellOh, here we go. Reagan found her bill again.

ReaganPage 130-something. The CR blocks an OMB-proposed rule that would've put federal grant funding under review by political appointees.

Rush LindellWait, political appointees deciding who gets grants? That's basically a leash on the agencies.

ReaganExactly why it's blocked temporarily. And there's a second guardrail. It bars transferring funds from other programs to Border Patrol. Senate added that one.

Rush LindellSo Border Patrol can't just raid the piggy bank anymore.

ReaganNot without Congress signing off, no.

Rush LindellFine. But you know what that tells me? Somebody in that room had real leverage, and it wasn't leadership.

ReaganThe Washington Times reported the patch also carries adjustments for national defense, wildfire response, and food assistance.

Rush LindellWildfire money and food assistance in the same breath. Nothing says functioning government like triage.

ReaganThose two guardrails are why the vote broke 370 to 48. People who wanted a fight got outnumbered by people who wanted those protections locked in.

Rush LindellSo the hardliners traded their leverage for a calendar.

ReaganBasically. Chip Roy's crowd wanted a fight over spending levels. They got outmaneuvered on grant money instead.

Rush LindellI'll give you this much. Whoever wrote those two clauses won the actual negotiation. Nobody's arguing that.

ReaganProgress.

Rush LindellAll progress.

ReaganAnd every one of those guardrails expires the same day the money does: December 11th.

Rush LindellSo we do this again in winter.

ReaganWith less daylight and less patience.

Rush LindellWith that guardrail expiring, mark your calendar. 15 weeks, that's what Congress has before December 11th to finish 12 bills or patch again.

ReaganRight. And the real negotiation doesn't happen in September at all.

Rush LindellIt happens the day after the polls close. Reagan, that's my callback. I'm coming back on this show in December and reading you the receipts.

ReaganI'll hold you to that.

Rush LindellYou'd better.

ReaganBecause once you're past November 3rd, the members who lost the seat have nothing left to protect. The members who won have no reason to compromise before January.

Rush LindellSo the incentive that produced the 370-48 vote flips completely.

ReaganFlips hard. Calm before an election buys you votes. Calm in a lame duck buys you nothing.

Rush LindellSo what are we actually watching between now and then?

ReaganTwo things. Does the Senate move a single full-year FY2027 bill to the floor? Not committee, the floor. And is leadership already planning another CR into January? Because if they are, this whole 15-week clock is theater.

Rush LindellWouldn't be the first time this year.

ReaganHere's where I'll actually invite the argument. If you think governing by patch is sound policy and not avoidance, make that case to us in December.

Rush LindellGood luck with that pitch.

ReaganI mean it. Congress holds the power of the purse. That's supposed to mean deciding, not deferring. Prove me wrong.

Rush LindellDecember 11th. Written down. So there it is, the Incumbent Protection Act. Signed, sealed, delivered.

ReaganYou're really keeping that nickname alive.

Rush LindellAll the way to December 11th. That's the new deadline, and that's when the real fight shows up.

ReaganRight, and by then we're past the midterms, which changes every incentive in that room.

Rush LindellExactly. Nobody's afraid of voters in a lame duck session.

ReaganSo the takeaway isn't that Congress fixed anything, it's that they bought time and called it a win.

Rush Lindell15 weeks, Reagan. Mark the calendar.

ReaganWe will, and we'll be backtracking every one of those weeks with you.

Rush LindellDo you realize how long that list is to choose one thing from? But if I had to, it would be immigration. So I believe that there is a distinct... We'll see you tomorrow. Um...