Tuesday: Trump's Iran Surrender or Masterstroke? The Right Can't Agree

Rush Lindell: You know what nobody wants to say? Trump just signed a peace deal with Iran, at Versailles of all places, and the loudest objections are coming from his own side. Welcome to the Rush Lindell Show. I'm Rush Lindell. Reagan: I'm Reagan, and rush, the timing alone is something. NBC News reported the signing happened late Wednesday at the Palace of Versailles, not Switzerland, where everyone was waiting. Macron posted the video himself. Rush Lindell: The Swiss press corps is still standing in Lucerne wondering what happened. So here's the show today. Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian sign a 14-point MOU. Cease fire, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a 60-day clock starts on the nuclear question. Big, right? Reagan: Big. But, Reagan, there's a lot of daylight between what the press release says and what the actual text says. NPR obtained the MOU text, and when you put it... Put it side by side with the JCPOA, the Obama deal everyone on the right spent a decade torching, the nuclear provisions look familiar. Rush Lindell: Shockingly familiar. We'll get into every word of that. And then Fox, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, they all broke with Trump on this simultaneously. Ben Shapiro called it a disaster, the conservative media's civil war is real and it is loud. LOUD. Reagan: Though I note some of those critics were cheerleading the war without a plan for how it ended, that's a conversation worth having. Rush Lindell: And Netanyahu-Oh, we are absolutely getting to Netanyahu-Trump called him-I'll let the reporting speak for itself-"a very small partner at the G7." Israel was cut out of the MOU entirely. Reagan: There are real strategic consequences to that rupture heading into a 60 day fight Speaker 3: with Congress. Reagan: day final negotiation. That's what we should be focused on. Rush Lindell: 60 days. That's the whole show. Let me tell you something, day 61 either justifies this thing or exposes it. First segment right now. One, two, three. Speaker one, action port side, please. Before we dive in, quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. So here's what's going on: the United States just signed a peace deal with Iran-not at Camp David, not at the White House, at Versailles, over dinner Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: with Macron sitting right there saying, and I quote, Bravo! Reagan: I mean, the plates were literally still on the table. Rush Lindell: Someone snapped a photo of the document to send to Tehran. That actually happened. According to CNN, Trump told his dinner companions, which included Wall Street titans, This was not easy, I can tell you. Then he lifted the memo to show off his signature. Reagan: So there was a formal signing ceremony already scheduled-Switzerland, Lake Lucerne, the whole setup. JD Vance was supposed to fly out Friday. Rush Lindell: Nope. Trump wanted it done that night. Macron said he'd arrange it, and just like that-snap-Iran deal. Reagan: Rush, I want to be clear. There is real substance here beyond the theater. NPR reported this is a 14-point MOU, immediate end to military operations, Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil sanctions lifted, 60-day clock starts now to negotiate a final nuclear agreement. Rush Lindell: All of that's real and I'm not dismissing it. But here's what gets me. NBC News reported that Israel, our closest ally in the region, was not shown the memorandum before it was signed. Netanyahu found out the same way the rest of us did. Reagan: That's a significant detail, and it's not just optics. If Israel wasn't in the room, they can't push back on the terms before they're locked in. Rush Lindell: Exactly right, and Fox News is calling this a surrender. Republicans are calling this a surrender. We'll get into that. Reagan: The part I keep coming back to is the uranium. NBC News said Iran's enriched uranium stock was Stockpiles stays on Iranian soil; the details are deferred to the "Sixty-day talks. Rush Lindell: So we sign something, the uranium's still there and we've got sixty days to figure out what we actually agreed to. Reagan: That's the honest read of it. Rush Lindell: Which raises an obvious question: what exactly are those fourteen points, and does the fine print hold up? So, the fine print... Reagan, walk me through it. What does this MOU actually say on nukes? Reagan: Okay, so CBS News did a side-by-side on this, and the comparison is striking. The MOU says Iran shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. That is, word for word, the same pledge that was in the Obama JCPOA. The exact same language Trump spent years calling the worst deal ever negotiated. Rush Lindell: The exact same language. Reagan: Verbatim. Now, to be fair, and I'll give the ceasefire real credit, stopping active military operations matters. But on the nuclear substance, the JCPOA capped enrichment at 3.67%, capped the stockpile, limited centrifuges to specific facilities. This MOU doesn't mention centrifuges once, doesn't cap enrichment levels at all. Rush Lindell: And the 440 kilograms sitting at 60%. Rent? Reagan: Still on Iranian soil, the MOU says both sides agreed to resolve the "disposition" of that stockpile, which is a diplomatic way of saying we'll figure it out later. Per CBS News, the actual mechanics get punted to the sixty day technical talks. Rush Lindell: So the stuff that's one step from weapons grade we're leaving in their hands and we're calling that better than Obama's deal? Reagan: That's the question that doesn't have a clean answer right now. The IAEA chief told Al Jazeera that four hundred forty kilograms at sixty percent is theoretically enough for more than ten nuclear warheads if refined further, and this agreement has no centrifuge limits, no enrichment cap-those details are deferred. Rush Lindell: The JCPOA ran a hundred fifty nine pages. This is fourteen bullet points negotiated by two real estate developers. Reagan: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner-I mean, look, the ceasefire is real. The Strait reopening is real, but the hard nuclear work hasn't happened yet; it's been delegated to 60 days of talks. Rush Lindell: And speaking of people who read the fine print, the conservative media just got a look at this thing, and they're not sending congratulations. So while Reagan was dissecting the nuclear fine print, the right wing media machine lit up, and I mean all of it simultaneously. Reagan: The Murdoch trifecta? Rush Lindell: The Murdoch trifecta-Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post-all broke with Trump on the same day the WSJ editorial board ran the headline "Trump Stages an Iran Retreat," the New York Post concluded the MOU, and I quote: seems to leave things right back where they were before the bomb started dropping. Reagan: So the bombs accomplished nothing, that's what they're saying. Rush Lindell: That's what their own editorial board is saying. And then you've got Ben Shapiro, I'm calling him the Disaster Whisperer, on Fox News calling it a disaster. Erick Erickson flatly, Trump has surrendered to Iran. Tucker Carlson calls it a retreat. Reagan: Okay, but Rush, some of that criticism is fair on the merits. Is Shapiro's point that you can't declare victory at half time? That's a real argument. Rush Lindell: I don't dispute the substance; what I dispute is the selective memory. Reagan: Say more. Rush Lindell: These are the same voices who cheered the war from day one: no exit plan, no end game, just bombs away-and now that Trump is trying to land the plane, they're appalled at the turbulence? Reagan: That's fair. You don't get to cheer the war and then refuse all responsibility for how it ends. HOW IT ENDS. Rush Lindell: Now here's the line that stopped me cold: Fox contributor Marc Thiessen, who reportedly advised Trump on this war, compared the $300 billion reconstruction fund to offering the Marshall Plan while the Nazis were still in power. Reagan: That's a striking analogy. Rush Lindell: It's vivid. It's also from a guy who was inside the tent five minutes ago. Reagan: And notice, nobody's blaming Trump directly. Thiessen called it "b- The Vance Peace Deal. Trump signed it. Vance is taking the arrows. Rush Lindell: Which is exactly where we're headed next, because that scapegoating has a very specific political purpose. So Kilmeade-Brian Kilmeade on Fox and Friends-I need to translate this for you. Reagan: Oh, please go ahead. Rush Lindell: He goes on air and says-and I'm pulling this exact quote-"Maybe Vance wasn't the right person to bring this conflict to an end." That's the whole operation right there. Reagan: Eleven words-the man did it in eleven words. Rush Lindell: Eleven words-not a single one of them says "Trump." The deal is bad. But somehow the guy who signed it is blameless. Reagan: And then Kilmeade adds, this is Vance's deal, it's not the President's deal. Rush, Trump literally flew to Versailles and signed it at dinner. Rush Lindell: With Macron saying "Bravo," but go off, Brian. Reagan: Look, I get the instinct-nobody wants to torch the president directly. But calling this Vance's deal is-that's not criticism, that's a human shield. Rush Lindell: And then there's Tom Cotton, Senate Intelligence Committee chair. Speaker 4: Mm hmm. Speaker 5: Mm Speaker 6: The Speaker 5: -hmm. Speaker 6: Senate's loudest Iran hawk for a decade-you ready? Reagan: I'm on the edge of my seat. Speaker 6: He tells Fox News-and I'm not paraphrasing-"Trump deserves enormous credit for weakening Iran." Then, in the same breath, we must not squander the leverage. That's it. That's the whole statement. Reagan: Interrupting, he praised the war and criticized the peace. Speaker 6: Without ever saying the deal is wrong. Reagan: Cotton spent years saying Obama's Iran deal was an Was an existential betrayal, now he's doing careful sentence construction. Speaker 6: M! Reagan: That's what tribal loyalty actually looks like when it's dressed up as analysis. Speaker 6: You know what nobody wants to say; the pattern is identical across all of them-Kilmeade, Cotton, the whole crew-protect the man, absorb the criticism somewhere else. Reagan: Vance is the somewhere else. Speaker 6: Vance is the somewhere else, and speaking of what nobody's saying honestly- There's another story running underneath all of this, one that involves a phone call, some expletives, and a very unhappy prime minister. Reagan: Yeah, that one's something else entirely. Rush Lindell: Now, the Bibi blow-up: Axios reported it; Trump confirmed it. He called Netanyahu, on the record, quote, fucking crazy, an expletive laden call after Netanyahu ordered Beirut strikes one hour before the MOU signing. an expletive laden call after Netanyahu ordered Beirut strikes one hour before the M.O.U. signing. One hour. Reagan: And Trump didn't walk it back. He told Axios, why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? He has no fucking judgment. PBS confirmed he acknowledged the call publicly. Speaker 6: A little bit perturbed, he said. Yeah, a little bit. Reagan: The diplomatic version. Speaker 6: But Reagan, the MOU text part, that's almost worse. NBC News reported Wednesday that Israeli officials still had not seen the final draft. A US official's response: the Israelis never asked for it. Reagan: Never asked-that's the US government's answer. Answer.--An Axios reported Netanyahu seemed to recognize he couldn't stop Trump from signing it, not agreed with it; recognized he couldn't stop it. Speaker 6: Big difference. Reagan: And at the G7 Trump said in public we are the big partner and he is the very small partner. Four months before Israeli elections. Speaker 7: No! Reagan: That's not a diplomatic slip. That's a message. Speaker 6: Without me there would be no Israel. He said that, at the G7, to the cameras, and the White House never denied any of it. Reagan: Now, I want to push on something here. On one read, Trump is asserting control, forcing an ally that nearly blew up the deal to accept the outcome. That's not nothing. Speaker 6: I hear you, and I'll be honest, I'm not sure he's right to do it. Bibi ordered a strike on Beirut one hour before the signing-that's on him. Reagan: Fair, but Israel has no seat at the sixty day table now. Their core concerns-centrifuges, ballistic missiles, Lebanon withdrawal-all get negotiated without them in the room. Speaker 6: Which brings us to the question nobody wants to answer yet: Did Trump actually win this? Because that answer depends entirely on what happens in those 60 days, and we're going there next. So the real question: Did Trump win or not? I've been sitting with this all week, and I'll give you my honest answer. Reagan: Same. Go. Speaker 6: The case for Trump is real. Iran lost Khamenei, lost most of its IRGC command structure, and came to the table in a hundred days. Thirteen American lives. The Pentagon puts the direct military cost around $40 billion per CNN and CSIS. That is a price, but the s***. Rush Lindell: The street is open and no president has ever gotten Iran's signature on anything this fast. Reagan: All of that's true, and I don't dismiss it, but here's what I can't get past: Iran gets immediate oil sanctions waivers, dollar denominated trade for the first time in four decades, Speaker 4: four. Reagan: and keeps every centrifuge running. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies flagged it bluntly: Washington is trading away its most durable economic lever. before the hard part of the negotiation has even started. Rush Lindell: That's the thing that keeps me up. Because the MOU didn't cap enrichment, didn't touch the ballistic missile program, Iran's missile program and support for allied groups are explicitly off the agenda in these 60-day talks, according to Iranian state media reports. Reagan: Wow. Rush Lindell: So what exactly did the war establish? Reagan: Directly, it established that Iran can be hurt. It did not Not establish that Iran can be stopped; those are different things. Rush Lindell: Yeah, yeah-and look, I think the MOU buys time-that's the honest conservative verdict: not victory-time. Reagan: Rush all push back on that framing slightly: because buying time only matters if you use it; if sixty days from now enrichment is still unresolved and the centrifuges are still spinning, what was the strategic purpose of the war? Rush Lindell: That's a question I don't have a clean answer to, and I don't think the White House does either. Reagan: Neither do I-and that discomfort is where honest conservatism has to live right now. Rush Lindell: The 60-day clock is already running. We'll find out what this actually was: a turning point or an expensive pause. That answer's coming fast. So the clock is running, Day One of Sixty, and here's what we're actually watching. Reagan: Right, three things—and they're not abstract. Rush Lindell: Hit it! Reagan: First, does Iran agree to halt enrichment outright, or do they run the clock stalling on definitions? The Hill reported this week it took Obama twenty months to nail down the JCPOA. They're asking Witkoff to do it in sixty days. Rush Lindell: Sixty Days. NBD. Reagan: Second thing, and this is the one I'm watching most closely,—that uranium stockpile. The MOU language, as PBS laid it out verbatim, says the minimum is down blending on site under IAEA supervision. Minimum. Rush Lindell: Hmm. Reagan: That word is doing a lot of work. Rush Lindell: Because downblending on Iranian soil is not the same as removal. Reagan: Not even close, and comedy already issued a direct Directive prohibiting the stockpile from leaving the country." Al Jazeera reported that. So the floor of this deal may also be the ceiling. Rush Lindell: And the third thing is Lebanon. Iran says the deal requires Israel to withdraw. Israel has no seat at these talks. That's a collision waiting to happen. Reagan: Which brings us back to Netanyahu. He can't stop the final deal. He showed that at Versailles. But he can make 60 days feel like 600. hundred. Rush Lindell: Here's the verdict I keep landing on: the standard for judging this isn't the press conference, it's what Iran's nuclear program looks like on day sixty one. Reagan: Exactly not what Trump said at the G7, not what Pezeshkian signed in Tehran, what the IAEA can actually verify when the clock expires. Rush Lindell: And if the answer is enrichment continuing, stockpiles still sitting on Iranian soil. oil, and Lebanon still contested, then the MOU didn't end the war-it paused it. Reagan: That's the sixty day question nobody wants to answer yet. Rush Lindell: Stay with us-we'll be tracking every one of those benchmarks as they hit. Day sixty one. That's the date that matters. Not today's press conference, not the Versailles dinner photo-op. Day sixty one, when the IAEA either has access or it doesn't. Reagan: And that's the standard we laid out today. The four hundred and forty kilograms of sixty percent enriched uranium, the centrifuges, Lebanon, those three things will tell you everything. Watch what's verifiable. Not what's declared. Rush Lindell: Bravo, Macron! Bravo! Look, this deal either delivers on Day Sixty One or the critics were right all along: no middle ground. Reagan: No middle ground. And that debate, inside conservative media, between allies, around the Netanyahu rupture-that's not going away in sixty days either. Rush Lindell: This was a big one. Thanks for spending the hour with us. Reagan: Really glad you were here. If today's show made you think- Subscribe, leave a five-star review, and tell somebody who needs to hear it. New episodes every weekday. Rush Lindell: We'll see you tomorrow, right here.