Thursday: We Called The Fed Wrong—Or Did We?

Rush LindellOkay, buckle up, because today we eat our own words. Or we don't. That's the whole show.

ReaganThat's a big or.

Rush LindellThis is The Rush Limbaugh Show. I'm Rush Limbaugh. That's Reagan. And today we're grading our own prediction like a couple of professors who forgot to study.

ReaganYou mean the rate gets toughest at midterms thesis.

Rush LindellThe one we built the whole four-dollar argument around. Yeah. Back in the spring, we said the Fed blinks, gas drops, Republicans coast into November.

ReaganAnd then summer happened.

Rush LindellSummer happened. Oil ripped. The new Fed chair got seated, and suddenly people are whispering the word hike. Not cut, hike.

ReaganHmm. I'm not letting you off that easy. Say the whole sentence.

Rush LindellFine. We might have called this thing backwards. There, I said it. Happy?

ReaganThrilled. Stick around, because we're walking the whole chronology tonight, start to finish.

Rush LindellWe are. But first, quick word from the folks who keep the lights on around here. Today's show is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

ReaganIf the Fed's about to make you nervous, might as well hedge with something shiny.

Rush LindellSubtle, Reagan.

ReaganI never claimed subtle. Let's get into it.

Rush LindellBack in July, we said it loud on this show. Inflation cracks, the Fed caves. Gas prices come down just in time to save the midterms. Big theory. Bold theory.

ReaganAnd it wasn't nothing, Rush. June's inflation numbers posted their biggest one-month drop since 2020. That's a real number. That's a real signal.

Rush LindellBiggest drop in six years. Six years. You don't see that and shrug.

ReaganNobody's saying shrug. But before we take a victory lap, I wanna be honest about what this segment actually is.

Rush LindellGo on.

ReaganIt's not a highlight reel. We built a thesis in public on air, and now we owe the listener an honest look at whether it held up, not just the parts that make us look sharp.

Rush LindellFine. Fair. That's fair.

ReaganFor instance, that CPI drop happened before oil started climbing again. So it's not the whole picture, even by itself.

Rush LindellRight. One good month doesn't erase whatever comes after it.

Reagan'Cause a lot happened between that July inflation print and today, and not all of it points the direction we said it would.

Rush LindellI know. I know where you're going with this.

ReaganUm, I'm not going anywhere yet. I'm just setting the table.

Rush LindellSet it. But before we re-litigate every headline from the last six weeks, there's one piece of this puzzle we skipped right past in July, and it matters more than any single data point.

ReaganWhich is?

Rush LindellWho's actually sitting in the Chair making the call.

ReaganOkay.

Rush LindellBecause everybody in July was arguing about oil and jobless claims and CPI. Like, the Fed's some machine that just processes numbers. It's not. There's a guy. A guy with a name and a track record and opinions.

ReaganKevin Warsh.

Rush LindellKevin Warsh. And here's the part people forget.

ReaganHe, he wasn't installed after any of this broke.

Rush LindellNo, that's exactly it. This man got confirmed back in May, May, Reagan, before the June inflation drop, before the oil spike, before Hormuz, before any of the noise we've been arguing about all summer.

ReaganSo whatever he does in September, he walked into the job blind to all of it.

Rush LindellBlind to all of it. He didn't get picked because oil hit 100 bucks. He didn't get picked because gas prices were an election issue. He got picked in a totally different news cycle.

ReaganWhich means if we want to guess what he does next, guessing from July onward isn't enough.

Rush LindellNot even close. You've gotta go back to May and ask, "Who is this guy, and what does he actually believe about rates?"

ReaganThen let's go back to May.

Rush LindellLet's go back to May. Fifty-four to forty-five. Write that number down.

ReaganThat's the confirmation vote for Warsh?

Rush LindellThat's the vote, fifty-four to forty-five, and CNBC called it the most divisive confirmation a Fed chair nominee has ever gotten.

ReaganEver?

Rush LindellEver. Not close, not contested, but fine, the most.

ReaganSo half the Senate basically held their nose.

Rush LindellPretty much. You had Trump pushing hard for this guy specifically, 'cause he wanted somebody who would lean toward cutting.

ReaganRight. And the vote total tells you that wasn't a slam dunk, even inside his own coalition.

Rush LindellForty-five no votes on a Fed chair. That's a brawl, not a confirmation hearing.

ReaganAnd it's worth noting that split wasn't just Democrats holding the line. There were plenty of question marks inside the Republican caucus, too.

Rush LindellA Forty-five-vote no column doesn't happen by accident.

ReaganBut here's the part I actually want listeners locked onto: the date, May Thirteen.

Rush LindellMay Thirteen.

ReaganThat's before the CPI number we already talked about, before any of the oil headlines, before any of it.

Rush LindellChronology matters, Reagan.

ReaganIt does, because if you get the order wrong, you start telling yourself a story where Warsh got picked because of the summer data.

Rush LindellWhen actually, the summer data happened to a guy who was already sitting in the chair.

ReaganExactly. He didn't earn the seat by calling the CPI drop right. He was already confirmed, already in place, watching it unfold like the rest of us.

Rush LindellWhich honestly makes this more interesting, not less. This isn't a guy who got installed to execute a plan.

ReaganNo, he's the guy who has to react to whatever gets thrown at him, and inflation data complicating the case for cuts was already in the mix, even at the confirmation itself, according to that CNBC piece.

Rush LindellSo he walks in already boxed. Trump wants cuts, the data's already messy, and 45 senators are on record saying they don't trust the pick.

ReaganThat's the chair. Contested vote, contested inflation picture, contested politics, all before Memorial Day.

Rush LindellAnd then summer happens.

ReaganOh, summer happens.

Rush LindellBecause there's a headline that drops a couple months later that makes you go, "Wait, did we call this whole thing backwards?"

ReaganThe one that flips the script.

Rush LindellThe one that flips the script. Let's get to it. Oil ripped. You ready for this? July 23rd, the headline drops, and it is not the headline we wanted.

ReaganRate hike odds, not a cut.

Rush LindellA hike. Reagan, we built an entire episode on a rate cut saving the midterms, and CNBC is telling me investors are bracing for the opposite.

ReaganAlex Harring wrote it up for CNBC. Investors were increasingly readying for the Fed to hike in September.

Rush LindellIncreasingly readying. That is polite financial media language for everybody panic.

ReaganIt's oil driving it. Prices ripped higher, and that's what pushed the odds around.

Rush LindellOil ripping into an election year, you couldn't script it worse for us.

ReaganYou could, actually. Wait for the jobs report.

Rush LindellDon't you dare tease me right now. I am still processing the gut punch.

ReaganFine, sit in it.

Rush LindellBecause this is the exact moment our thesis looked dead. Cut rates save the midterms, cheap gas by fall. That whole argument, gone, buried. Oil goes up, the Fed has to consider tightening instead of easing, and suddenly our big prediction reads like a bad parlay.

ReaganA hike doesn't cool the economy for free. It slows things down, sure, but it also means higher borrowing costs going into November. That's not the relief valve you were promising listeners.

Rush LindellAnd it's not like listeners can just shrug off higher borrowing costs. That's real money on a car payment or a credit card balance.

ReaganWhich is exactly why markets don't take repricing lightly, even before the Fed says a word.

Rush LindellI know. That's the part that stings. We told people the cavalry was coming, and CNBC is telling me the cavalry might turn around and ride the other way.

ReaganRush.

Rush LindellWhat?

ReaganSay it. You were wrong.

Rush LindellI'm not saying I was wrong. I'm saying the data got aggressive.

ReaganThe data got aggressive.

Rush LindellOil doesn't care about our narrative arc, Reagan.

ReaganNo, it doesn't. But it's worth being honest about what that July headline actually did. It didn't confirm a hike. It moved the odds. Markets repricing isn't the Fed announcing.

Rush LindellSure, but markets moving that fast on rate expectations right after we picked a lane? That's a gut check.

ReaganIt is. And I'll admit, reading that piece, my first thought was, "There goes the whole premise."

Rush LindellWait, you're conceding something?

ReaganI'm conceding the headline was bad for us. I'm not conceding the story ended there.

Rush LindellMeaning what?

ReaganMeaning July 23rd is a snapshot, not a verdict. Oil spiked, odds moved, everyone panicked. But the calendar didn't stop.

Rush LindellGo on.

ReaganThere's more that landed after that headline, and it doesn't sit comfortably with hike is happening. It actually muddies things considerably.

Rush LindellMuddies how? You're doing the thing where you tease me now.

ReaganBecause it deserves its own breath. It's not as clean as either of us wants it to be.

Rush LindellNow I need to know.

ReaganYou will, right after this. Rush, before you go declaring us wrong on air, you need to hear what dropped on August 7th.

Rush LindellI'm listening, reluctantly.

ReaganCNBC reported that hold odds jumped to 60%. A week before that, they were sitting at one in three.

Rush LindellWait, one in three to 60 in a week? That's not a shift. That's a stampede in the other direction.

ReaganIt happened because the July jobs report came in weak.

Rush LindellSo the labor market cracks, and suddenly the hawks lose their nerve.

ReaganNot all of them. Some FOMC members actually dissented in July. They wanted the hike because the energy-driven inflation pressure hadn't gone anywhere.

Rush LindellHold on. So you've got a room full of people looking at the exact same numbers and walking away with opposite conclusions?

ReaganThat's where the committee is right now. Not unanimous on much of anything.

Rush LindellComforting.

ReaganIt's a room full of people with a Bloomberg terminal and completely different priors.

Rush LindellPriors look at you throwing around stats words on morning radio.

ReaganThere's more. By late August, oil had actually cooled, down to around $94 a barrel.

Rush LindellNinety-four off that spike from July.

ReaganRight. But the shortfall moving through the Strait didn't close. Estimates still put it around 8 million barrels a day.

Rush LindellSo the sticker price came down, but the pipe's still half clogged.

ReaganExactly. Which means the relief at the pump could be temporary, not a fix.

Rush LindellSo this isn't some clean fix. It's a patch job at best.

ReaganRight. And patch jobs don't hold up if something else breaks in the meantime.

Rush LindellOkay, so what is a Hold even by the average person? Say I'm shopping for a mortgage right now.

ReaganA Hold means the rate you're staring at today probably doesn't move much before the fall. A Hike means it climbs again, and that new construction loan gets more expensive fast.

Rush LindellSo the guy trying to lock a rate in October has a real stake in this fight, whether he knows it or not.

ReaganHe does. Everybody with a variable rate anything does.

Rush LindellGive me a real number then. What's the difference between a Hold and a Hike on an average 30-year loan right now?

ReaganWe don't have exact numbers to put on air tonight, but directionally, even a quarter point on a Hike moves a monthly payment enough that families notice it. And a Hold keeps that number frozen where it is.

Rush LindellFine. So where does that leave us? A minute ago, I was ready to eat crow on live radio.

ReaganIt leaves us honest. The most recent hard data, the jobs number, actually favors a Hold, not a Hike.

Rush LindellSo we're not vindicated.

ReaganNo.

Rush LindellBut we're not wrong either.

ReaganAlso no. Both sides have a real case sitting on the table right now.

Rush LindellI hate a story with no Verdict. Doesn't sell radio.

ReaganYou'll manage.

Rush LindellFine. Fine. If the jobs number, the dissent, and the oil number are all pulling in different directions- Then there's one piece of this whole mess nobody's pricing correctly.

ReaganGo on.

Rush LindellAnd whatever's actually happening in the Strait of Hormuz that nobody on that committee wants to say out loud.

ReaganNow, that's a real rabbit hole.

Rush LindellBuckle up, Reagan. Gold just did something wild, Reagan. Fifteen-week intraday high. $4,738 hit on August 24th.

ReaganAnd here's the part people skip. That spike isn't purely inflation fear. It's tied partly to a Treasury decision to expand buybacks on long-dated debt.

Rush LindellWait, so it's not the fear trade?

ReaganNot entirely. It's a debt market mechanic bleeding into the gold price. Two different stories getting mashed into one headline.

Rush LindellOf course it is. Nothing in this economy gets to mean just one thing anymore.

ReaganMeanwhile, Hormuz is still the wild card underneath all of it.

Rush LindellThere's a claim floating around social media from a Reddit thread and picked up in an X post that Iran has declared the strait stays closed until the end of Trump's term.

ReaganWhich is not a confirmed government statement. That's community chatter, not a State Department readout.

Rush LindellSure, but chatter moves oil traders same as headlines do.

ReaganFair. Though CNBC reported the U.S. military's helped move over 660 million barrels through Hormuz since May, even with that 8 million barrel a day shortfall everyone's been quoting.

Rush LindellSo the strait's half open no matter what Iran's posting online.

ReaganIt's a good reminder that a lot of what circulates about the strait right now comes from posts, not press briefings.

Rush LindellSure, but traders don't wait for press briefings. They trade the vibe.

ReaganAnd the same online chatter is split. Some of it says Iran's actually getting squeezed, oil exports cratering, and the Strait might reopen. It's contested. I wouldn't call either version settled.

Rush LindellNobody's pricing that mess correctly. Which, speaking of things nobody's pricing correctly, Silver. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've genuinely never seen. They're selling a 1 ounce Silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what Silver's actually trading for right now, and they're covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganPriced below spot. They're eating a loss to get it in your hands. Limit one per person. New customers only.

Rush LindellFree shipping, fully insured by Lear. Twenty-four hours. That's it.

ReaganAnd remember, spot price doesn't even include minting the coin, shipping it, or dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Below spot almost never happens.

Rush LindellThis isn't some obscure bullion piece either. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognized coins on the planet, backed by the U.S. government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, something you can actually hold.

ReaganGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now. 24 hours only, the URL goes dark. And when it's gone, it's gone.

Rush Lindellwww.rushcoinoffer.com. Gold.

ReaganAll right. Gold and Hormuz are the headline stuff, but there's a whole other bill hitting people's kitchen tables that never makes the crayon.

Rush LindellBeyond the gas pump, you mean?

ReaganWay beyond it.

Rush LindellSwitching gears to the kitchen table costs beyond gas prices that don't get nearly enough airtime.

ReaganStart with health insurance, because this one's ugly. KFF looked at 77 insurers filing preliminary rates for next year.

Rush LindellAnd?

ReaganMedian proposed increase for 2027 ACA marketplace premiums is 14%.

Rush Lindell14! On top of what exactly?

ReaganOn top of an average 58% net premium jump this year after the enhanced subsidies expired.

Rush Lindell58, then 14 on top of 58.

ReaganStacked. And it's not hitting everybody the same. KFF's own analysis says unsubsidized middle income enrollees are eating the worst of it.

Rush LindellSo the family that makes just enough to lose a subsidy gets the full sticker price.

ReaganExactly the group. With no cushion and no help.

Rush LindellThat's the family doing everything right, working, insured, playing by the rules, and getting hit hardest anyway.

ReaganWhich is exactly why premium increases deserve as much airtime as gas prices, even if they're less visible day to day.

Rush LindellNobody's talking about this. Everybody's staring at the pump. Meanwhile, some guy's health plan just went up by nearly a third in two years.

ReaganRight. And that's the frustrating part. We keep measuring the economy in gallons of gas because it's the number you see every day. Premiums land once a year, quietly, in a renewal notice nobody reads until the bill's due.

Rush LindellSilent tax.

ReaganI'd call it a slower one, not a silent one. People do notice. They just notice too late to do anything about it.

Rush LindellFine, a delayed tax. What else is sitting in that blind spot?

ReaganGrocery inflation, housing affordability, tariffs working through the supply chain. All three deserve their own hour with real numbers, not us guessing tonight.

Rush LindellYou're saying don't wing it.

ReaganI'm saying those categories need their own filings, their own data, before we put a claim on air. Tonight, we don't have it.

Rush LindellNoted. Consider that the next assignment.

ReaganConsider it homework for both of us, not just me.

Rush LindellFair. But none of that, not the premiums, not Gold, not the Oil math, actually resolves anything.

ReaganNo, it doesn't.

Rush LindellThere's exactly one date on the calendar that does.

ReaganSeptember 16th.

Rush LindellThe Fed meets, they vote, and every argument we've made tonight either holds up or it doesn't. Okay, Mark it. Mark it right now. Re-

ReaganI've got a pen.

Rush LindellSeptember 15th and 16th, two days. Washington. The whole committee in a room deciding whether we were right or whether we owe America an apology.

ReaganThe Fed's own meeting schedule lists it plain. September 15th to 16th. Decision announced Wednesday the 16th, 2:00 PM Eastern.

Rush Lindell2:00 PM. Not two whole, not 159, two whole.

ReaganAnd they drop the dot plot with it. The Summary of Economic Projections, where every governor anonymously tells you what they think rates look like a year out.

Rush LindellWhich is basically 12 strangers passing notes in class, except the notes move markets.

ReaganFair.

Rush Lindell12 people passing notes that move trillion dollar markets, no pressure whatsoever, and half of America's mortgage plans hinge on what they scribble down.

ReaganAnd at all.

Rush LindellSo here's what I want, Reagan. September 16th, 2:00 PM, we go live, and whatever they say, Hike, Hold, Cut, we read it on air with zero spin.

ReaganZero spin from you. That'll be a first.

Rush LindellExcuse me.

ReaganI'm just saying, history suggests otherwise.

Rush LindellI resent that. I accept it, but I resent it. But no, seriously, we've spent this whole hour grading ourselves off headlines, off odds, off oil prices, moving around like pinballs. None of that is the actual vote.

ReaganRight. Everything before the 16th is forecasting. The 16th is the record.

Rush LindellThat's the difference between a prediction and a decision. One of them's just noise until the gavel comes down.

ReaganAnd the dot plot tells you where they think they're headed after that, which matters more for the midterms than the September move itself, honestly.

Rush LindellBecause if they hike in September, but the dots point toward cuts by spring.

ReaganThen the whole midterm calculus resets again.

Rush LindellExactly. So don't get married in any headline before then. Not the oil spike, not the jobs number, not gold, none of it.

ReaganThe report card's not out yet.

Rush LindellComes out September 16th, 2:00 PM Eastern. And until then, everybody, including us, is just guessing with good posture.

ReaganGood posture guessing. I like that.

Rush LindellPatent pending. All right, quick break. We'll wrap this thing up.

ReaganSo where does that leave us? Genuinely split. Hold odds are real, hike chatter is real, and Warsh hasn't tipped his hand either way.

Rush LindellNot a hint. Guy's a vault.

ReaganWhich frankly is probably smart on his part, given how loud we've been about it.

Rush LindellSmart or just really good at poker.

ReaganSeptember 16th is the day the guessing stops. Circle it, because everything we've argued tonight gets checked against an actual vote, not a headline.

Rush LindellCircle it in red. Highlight it. Tattoo it on your forearm if you're into that.

ReaganMaybe just the calendar app.

Rush LindellFine, calendar app. But mark it, 'cause on the 16th, somebody's turning in an assignment they can't fudge.

ReaganMeaning?

Rush LindellMeaning I've been threatening to grade this prediction all night, and on the 16th, the Fed grades ours right back. No curve, no extra credit, no see me after class.

ReaganThat's fair. We'll take the same test we handed them.

Rush LindellDeal. All right, that's the show. Hit subscribe, leave us five stars, and tell somebody who still thinks $4 gas is the whole story.

ReaganThere's more to it than that.

Rush LindellThere's always more to it. See you Thursday.