Thursday: 33% Approval and $4 Gas Is No Coincidence

Rush LindellWelcome back to The Rush Lindell Show. I'm fired up today.

ReaganAnd I'm here to keep him honest, as always.

Rush LindellWe've got a fresh Reuters and Ipsos number on the President, and it is rough.

Reagan33%. But wait till you hear what's happening underneath that headline.

Rush LindellCareful, you're giving away the show.

ReaganNever the ending, Rush, just the question.

Rush LindellFair enough. Because right behind that poll is gas at the pump, diesel at the docks, the whole kitchen table budget.

ReaganAnd whether voters are blaming the war or the man in the Oval Office.

Rush LindellThen we're onto the Fed. Warsh, a split July decision, and a bond market that isn't exactly buying his pitch.

ReaganPlus whether September turns into a rate hike nobody in that room wanted.

Rush LindellAnd three dates on the calendar that might decide the midterms before a single vote is cast.

ReaganShould be a fun few weeks around here.

Rush LindellBut first, this hour is brought to you by Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997.

ReaganGood people to know when the headlines look like this one.

Rush LindellAll right, let's start with the number everyone's talking about.

Reagan33%. Let's see what's actually sitting underneath it.

Rush LindellBefore we dive in, a quick reminder, we love hearing from you. If you have questions or topics you'd like us to cover, head to the link in the description and submit your question. We read every single one. 33.

ReaganPercent?

Rush LindellApproval. Reuters/Ipsos, 64 disapprove.

ReaganWow.

Rush Lindell1166 adults, August 14th through 17th.

ReaganThat ties the low earlier this term.

Rush LindellTies the floor. And here's what nobody in that party wants printed above the fold. This isn't a scandal collapse. This is a grocery store collapse.

ReaganOne survey doesn't decide an election.

Rush LindellOne survey? Forbes ran this yesterday. 80% of the country thinks the Iran fight drags on, not weeks, longer.

ReaganAnd 71% of Republicans agree with that, which should worry the White House more than the top line does.

Rush LindellBecause their own voters stopped buying the quick win story.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellMm-hmm.

ReaganBut before we bury the midterms, give me the cross tab, not the headline.

Rush LindellGo ahead.

ReaganFor the first time in roughly a decade, more voters trust Democrats than Republicans on the economy, 38 to 35.

Rush LindellSay that again.

Reagan38, 35.

Rush LindellThat's the number, not the Thirty-three. That's the one that moves seats.

ReaganAnd it's not sitting alone out there. YouGov and The Economist had him at Thirty-three in early August. Quinnipiac landed at Thirty-two in late July.

Rush LindellThree outfits, three weeks, same block of numbers.

ReaganWhich tells you it's a pattern, but it's also weeks-old data on a war that could shift by Tuesday.

Rush LindellFine. But weeks of watching the pump climb every time you fill up-

ReaganRight

Rush Lindell... people remember that.

ReaganSo does the price outlast the poll?

Rush LindellIt outlasts the poll, the pundits, and whatever spin comes out of the next press briefing. Wait till you see what that Thirty-eight to Thirty-five actually costs a family at the gas station. Three-ninety-two a gallon in July. Four-oh-six this week. My corner station, Cincinnati.

ReaganThat's not a chart in Washington. That's a receipt in your hand.

Rush LindellExactly. Under three bucks before the February strikes. Now past four. That's about a 30% jump, and it's showing up in every cart every week.

ReaganThe Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy actually ran the household math on this.

Rush LindellOoh.

ReaganAverage families paid around $527 more in fuel costs since the war started.

Rush Lindell527. That's real money.

ReaganAnd their estimate has that climbing towards 650 by Labor Day if the fighting keeps going.

Rush Lindell650. That's a car payment sitting in a tank.

ReaganMeanwhile, paychecks aren't catching up. The Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers, out with the CPI report, show real average hourly earnings actually fell two tenths of a percent July to July.

Rush LindellSo the wage is standing still, and the pump is sprinting.

ReaganThat's the mismatch, yes.

Rush LindellAnd it's not just the SUV in your driveway. Diesel's above five bucks now.

ReaganRight.

Rush LindellAnd diesel is what moves the truck, the freight, the shelf. A tanker getting harassed near the Strait of Hormuz shows up three weeks later on a grocery receipt in Ohio.

ReaganThat part's a supply shock, though. The war did that. It's a different animal than a policy choice in Washington.

Rush LindellTell that to the guy at the pump doing the math on whether he can still take his kid to the movies this weekend. He's not sorting causes. He's just watching the number climb.

ReaganI'm not arguing it doesn't hurt. I'm saying who wears the blame in November depends on whether voters read this as a war problem or a White House problem.

Rush LindellAnd that argument is gonna run right through election day. But you know what actually holds its value while gas prices bounce around? Something you can put in your hand instead of your tank, which is why I want to tell you about this. My friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've never seen before. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price. That's right, below what silver is actually trading for right now, and Lear is covering the shipping and taxes.

ReaganHere's what you need to know. Priced below spot. Lear is selling this at a loss to get silver in your hands. Limit one per person. New customers only. Free shipping. Fully insured by Lear. This is a 24-hour offer only.

Rush LindellAnd just so you understand how rare this is, spot price doesn't include the cost to mint the coin, ship it, or any dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganThis isn't some obscure bullion piece. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable and sought-after coins in the world, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, a tangible asset you can hold in your hand.

Rush LindellGo to rushcoinoffer.com right now. This is a 24-hour offer. The URL goes dark after that, and when it's gone, it's gone. rushcoinoffer.com. Go check that out before it's gone.

ReaganSo diesel wages $500 out of every family's pocket. All of that funnels into one place.

Rush LindellThe inflation number.

ReaganWhich is exactly what the Fed is staring at every time Kevin Warsh sits down at that table.

Rush LindellReagan, translate a basis point for me. What's nine of them actually cost somebody?

ReaganOn a normal mortgage, barely a coffee. The bond market moved because it didn't believe Kevin Warsh.

Rush LindellWalk me through that. The Fed held at 350 to 375, 9 to 3 vote, and Warsh said flat out he wouldn't hesitate to stop inflation.

ReaganCNBC reported that same afternoon, the 30-year yield jumped past nine basis points, and the 10-year climbed to 4.657%.

Rush LindellSo the market heard, "Trust me," and answered, "No"?

ReaganPretty much. Three members wanted a hike immediately. Traders read that as a committee arguing with itself over an oil shock inflation, the hardest kind of fight, because higher rates don't refine crude.

Rush LindellYou can't tighten your way out of the Strait of Hormuz.

ReaganThat's the bind. Chase's market note now has a quarter-point September hike as the new base case, pointing at slow shipping normalization there and the credibility question Warsh raised on himself.

Rush LindellPut that one in car loan terms.

ReaganA few extra dollars a month on new auto and card debt, more on adjustable mortgages. Small on paper, loud six weeks before an election.

Rush LindellAnd these odds swing like a pendulum with a grunge.

ReaganCNBC had futures above 80% for a hike right after that July meeting. Then the July CPI print showed prices up 3.4% annually, and odds dropped to roughly 42.

Rush Lindell80 to 42?

ReaganThat's not settled.

Speaker 3Wow.

ReaganThat's live.

Rush LindellSeptember 15th and 16th then.

ReaganSame week House Republicans start sweating every point hike like it's on their own ballot.

Rush LindellForget the polling a second. Let's run the House math nobody at the RNC wants to touch.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellHistory says the party holding the House eats every cent of gas pain, no matter whose cause. Voters don't grade on a curve.

ReaganThey rarely do.

Rush LindellNow stack a rate hike on top. Six weeks before election day, mortgage payments and credit card rates land on the ballot right next to the war and the pump.

ReaganSlow down. Is this really about gas or about a war voters were told would wrap up in weeks?

Rush LindellSo it's not the receipts?

Reagan80% of the country, per that Reuters/Ipsos number from the top, thinks this drags on. That's patience running out, not just prices.

Rush LindellFine, both, but the calendar doesn't care about nuance. August CPI lands September 11th.

ReaganMm-hmm. Five days before the Fed even meets.

Rush LindellFOMC decides September 15th and 16th, two headlines back to back inside the last stretch before voters lock in.

ReaganHot print off oil, Warsh has covered a hike. Soft print...

Rush LindellHe's got covered a hold, and every House Republican in a swing district is praying for soft.

ReaganPraying's not a plan.

Rush LindellNo, it's three dates and a lot of hoping. Speaking of hoping, wait till you hear what the White House is calling this energy picture.

ReaganOh, I can't wait.

Rush LindellLet's play a game. I'm reading the actual line from the podium back in February.

ReaganOh, no.

Rush LindellOnce we degrade Iran's ability to hit tankers, prices plummet back to pre-conflict levels.

ReaganAnd?

Rush LindellSix months later, still over $4 a gallon. I'm calling this one the plummet that never came.

ReaganCatchy.

Rush LindellNewsweek talked to Denton Cinquegrana, OPIS's chief oil analyst. He says 2.98 gas is gone for the rest of 2026 and might not come back until the second half of 2027.

ReaganSo the plummet got rescheduled for next year.

Rush LindellA mirage with a podium and a flag behind it.

ReaganFunny thing is, this exact script ran in reverse in 2022. Conservatives spent that whole summer saying Biden owned the price at the pump, war or no war.

Rush LindellThat's different. That was Biden's policy failures.

ReaganWas it? Or was it also a war shock nobody in the room controlled? Neither party ever wants to say the actual word out loud.

Rush LindellWhich word?

ReaganHormuz. The Strait's still the choke point, whoever is holding the podium.

Rush LindellFair. Blame the Strait of Hormuz doesn't fit on a yard sign.

ReaganDoesn't poll well either.

Rush LindellThe parody is barely exaggerated at this point. That's what gets me.

ReaganSo let's turn it on us for a second. Is any of this actually inflation or a supply shock we're mislabeling as one? Comment aside, look at what actually landed. CNBC's July CPI 0.1% monthly, 3.4% annual, core at 2.5.

Rush LindellThat's still the wrong direction.

ReaganSure, but EY's breakdown showed grocery prices actually ticked down, the first dip since March, even while restaurant prices offset it.

Rush LindellSo the checkout line cooled while the pump kept burning.

ReaganThat's the split. A wartime supply shock and a spending-driven inflation aren't the same animal, and conservatives shouldn't pretend otherwise just because-

Speaker 3Mm-hmm

Reagan... the polling's convenient.

Rush LindellFine. I'll give you that much.

ReaganBut here's where the administration owns it: duration. A blockade strategy with no end date is a price policy, whether anyone in the West Wing calls it that or not.

Rush LindellSay that part again.

ReaganYou control how long the shock lasts, you're setting the price. That's a choice, not an accident.

Rush LindellThat's the one version of this I can't wave off.

ReaganRight. The war explains July. It doesn't explain September.

Rush LindellAnd every month it drags, this stops being about Tehran and starts being about the West Wing. Three dates decide the fall. Write them down.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellSeptember 11th, CPI. September 15th and 16th, the Fed. And check the AAA average every single day in between.

ReaganBecause if crude's still sitting near 100 bucks a barrel when Warsh's committee meets?

Rush LindellAnd they hike anyway, this quits being a polling problem. It's an economic one.

ReaganAnd even if the Fed holds, oil doesn't answer to a vote.

Rush LindellNo. It answers to a war with no end date on the calendar. That approval number stops being a floor.

ReaganI'll take that bet with you, but if I'm wrong about the war explaining this, I want the mail on it.

Rush LindellThe Plummet tour rolls on, folks. Gas relief, always 90 days out.

ReaganAnd if that promise is still broken on September 11th, that's a number with a date stamped on it.

Rush LindellA due date. Three of them, actually.

ReaganI mean that. If you think the war caused this and he's just caught in it-

Rush LindellRight.

Reagan... say so. Genuinely want to hear it.

Rush LindellShe actually means that.

ReaganI do.

Rush LindellSo that's the Show. A record low approval number, three separate polls agreeing-

ReaganBGHOST1mhm

Rush Lindell... and a gas gauge still climbing.

ReaganAnd the real headline underneath it, voters trusting Democrats over money for the first time in years.

Rush LindellIt's the wallet talking, plain and simple.

ReaganI'd say it's both, honestly. But Fair point.

Rush LindellProgress. Mark your calendars. September 11th, CPI report, then the Fed meets mid-month.

ReaganAnd check the AAA average yourself. Don't take our word for it.

Rush LindellWow, Reagan, encouraging listeners to think for themselves on my Show.

ReaganSomebody has to.

Rush LindellIf you liked this one, subscribe, leave five stars, send it to a friend still arguing about gas prices at dinner.

ReaganNew episodes drop every weekday.

Rush LindellI'm Rush Lindell.

ReaganI'm Reagan.

Rush LindellWe'll catch you next time.