Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
Published by Carson Investment Research
Business
Investing
This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team. The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services.
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into Apple reclaiming its title as the world's largest company by market cap after sitting out the AI spending race, while hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft pour ever-larger sums into CapEx. They break down record Q2 blended earnings growth of 38% year-over-year, the outsized role investment gains in private holdings like SpaceX and Anthropic played in Google's headline profit beat, and why core net income tells a different story. The conversation shifts to the "chip crash" playing out in South Korea, where the KOSPI has fallen more than 30% from its June 22 peak amid margin calls and central bank rate hikes, and what that says about crowded momentum trades and the explosion of leveraged ETF products tied to tech and semis. Ryan and Sonu also cover the rotation into low volatility, financials, and healthcare, why flows into tech remain historically stretched even after the pullback, and preview this week's Fed decision amid unusually high rate-hike odds. They close with a personal update on Ryan's eye surgery, a shoutout to guest and TrendLabs Founder JC Parets' record-breaking episode, and details on the live 200th episode show in Boston. [Key Takeaways] Apple overtook NVIDIA as the world's largest company by market cap (~$4.9 trillion) after largely sitting out heavy AI CapEx spending, while free cash flow for semiconductor companies surpassed hyperscaler free cash flow for the first time this quarter. Q2 blended S&P 500 earnings growth hit 38% year-over-year, the best pace since Q3 2021, driven largely by tech (+65%), energy (+128%), and communication services (+112%); excluding Google, growth drops to 26%. A large share of Google's reported profit surge came from investment gains in private holdings (SpaceX, Anthropic) rather than core operations, a pattern also inflating net income at Amazon, NVIDIA, and Microsoft. South Korea's KOSPI fell roughly 33% from its June 22nd peak (before a further 10% one-day drop) as margin calls and a Bank of Korea rate hike hit heavily levered chip and momentum trades. Momentum's one-year excess return over the S&P 500 pulled back from the 96th to the 75th percentile relative to the last 40 years, while low volatility stocks are up 8% and financials up 11% since the market's June 2nd peak. Fed rate-hike odds this week sit near their highest pre-meeting level in recent memory, with the committee reportedly divided as inflation, a resilient labor market, and AI/Middle East-driven cost pressures complicate the outlook. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Quick Setup 0:31 - Apple Reclaims Top Market Cap 5:16 - AI Capex Arms Race Reality Check 8:35 - Record Margins And Earnings Surge 16:44 - South Korea Sparks Chip Crash 23:49 - Ryan’s Eye Patch Surgery Story 29:58 - Why Tech Flows Look Crowded 35:28 - Leveraged Products And Margin Call Risk 42:40 - Rotation Into Low Vol And Defensives 46:57 - Contrarian Thinking Versus Momentum 54:41 - Interstellar Detour And Time Talk 57:19 - Fed Uncertainty And Rate Hike Odds 1:02:16 - Live Boston Show And Final Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
JC Parets Returns (FvF Ep. 197)
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese welcome back JC Parets, founder of Trend Labs (formerly of All Star Charts), for a wide ranging conversation on market breadth, momentum, and where the "dumb money" is currently making its biggest mistakes. JC walks through his deductive approach to markets, using breadth data like the NYSE advance decline line and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average to systematically rule out a bear market thesis, the same way a sommelier deduces a wine varietal. The conversation covers the dollar's surprising resilience as a headwind, the extreme dispersion between software and semiconductor stocks, why crypto and tokenized equities represent "the future of finance" rather than nothing of value, and why the S&P Bank Index breaking out above its 2007 highs is one of the most underappreciated bullish signals in the market. JC and Sonu also debunk the margin debt to GDP scare narrative, put leveraged ETF flows in perspective, and discuss portfolio construction through uncorrelated strategies rather than benchmark chasing. They close out with career advice on social media, JC's favorite cities to visit, and a debate over India's food scene. [Key Takeaways] The NYSE advance decline line closed at an all time high, and the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 200 day moving average is at cycle highs, both inconsistent with bear market conditions, which require broadening weakness across new lows, not just a handful of names. Despite a rallying dollar this year, equities have held up well; a dollar rollover (speculators are currently net long and near extremes) could act as a tailwind for risk assets, emerging markets, and Latin America. Correlation between software stocks and the broader technology index fell to near zero (versus a typical ~70), an extreme unwind that's now driving a "catch up" rotation back into software as some semiconductor strength cools. The S&P Bank Index just broke out above its 2007 Great Financial Crisis highs, alongside breakouts in mid cap financials, small cap financials, and European financials, a broad based signal JC argues is very difficult to reconcile with an imminent recession. Margin debt scares are overstated when framed against GDP; relative to total stock market value, leverage is near multi decade lows, and leveraged ETF products remain a rounding error (about 0.25%) of total market size. Small cap and large cap value are hitting new multi month relative highs versus growth, offering a potential diversifier to a volatile, whipsaw prone momentum factor. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Price As Proof 2:54 - Breadth Signals Still Say Bull 9:01 - Bitcoin Bets And Dollar Tailwinds 10:52 - Tech Dispersion And Software Catch-Up 12:53 - Crypto Rails And Tokenized Stocks 15:58 - Financials Breakout Challenges The Bears 24:59 - Margin Debt Myths And Leverage Reality 30:02 - Momentum Whiplash And Value Diversifiers 34:06 - From All-Star Charts To Trend Labs 39:40 - Uncorrelated Strategies Beat Benchmark Anxiety 42:56 - Technician Mentors And Who To Follow 48:00 - Social Media That Builds Careers 55:18 - Crack Spreads And Energy Signals 58:31 - Gratitude And Final Takeaways Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Here's Our Midyear Outlook 2026 (FvF Ep. 196)
In this mid-year outlook episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, revisit their 2026 forecast and explain why they've raised their S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% for the year, while holding bonds steady at 3-5%. They walk through how AI capex has become a macroeconomic story as much as a market one, contributing roughly 90 basis points per quarter to real GDP growth, and why hyperscaler spending plans for 2026 and 2027 keep getting revised sharply higher. The conversation covers the labor market's quiet resilience, why business creation data suggests confidence rather than desperation, an inflation picture that isn't going away despite market expectations for Fed rate hikes, and a sector rotation story where former "value" stocks like Micron have become momentum plays almost overnight. Ryan and Sonu also dig into earnings estimate revisions, midterm-year volatility patterns, diversifiers like gold and managed futures, and swap stories from their World Cup travels before previewing next week's guest. [Key Takeaways] Carson raised its 2026 S&P 500 target from 12-15% to 15-18% at the midpoint of the year, with the index already up 11% total return year-to-date; bonds remain forecast at 3-5%. AI-related hardware and software investment (excluding data centers) has contributed about 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters, roughly 90 basis points per quarter. Hyperscaler capex estimates keep climbing: the five largest tech spenders were projected to spend $470 billion in 2026 back in November; that figure is now $740 billion, with 2027 estimates rising from $530 billion to nearly $900 billion. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have risen from $308 to $339 a share (up 10%) since the start of the year, with 2027 estimates up 12%, led by technology, energy, and materials. The labor market shows underlying strength despite headline softness, with unemployment at 4.2%, average payroll growth around 110,000 a month, and falling continuing claims. Inflation remains sticky due to incomplete tariff pass-through, reshoring-related cost increases, and rising computer/software prices, a reversal from the deflationary tech trends of the 1990s. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And The Midyear Setup 1:45 - Why We Raised The Stock Target 5:38 - AI Spending Shows Up In GDP 9:44 - The Consumer Looks Better Than Feels 14:20 - Business Creation As A Confidence Signal 17:08 - The Real Leaders Inside “Tech” 18:53 - Earnings Keep Getting Revised Higher 27:03 - The Inflation Problem Isn’t Gone 31:06 - The Fed Pause Versus Hike Pricing 35:00 - Second-Half Equity Playbook And Rotation 42:19 - Volatility, Breadth, And Midterm Patterns 49:06 - Bonds, Oil Headlines, Gold, Diversifiers 52:55 - World Cup Travel Notes And Wrap-Up 57:08 - Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)
In Episode 195 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, celebrate the Dow's first close above 53,000 and break down the fastest 1,000-point milestone in the index's history. They unpack what's really driving the S&P 500's 10% first-half gain, splitting the return into earnings growth, margin expansion, and multiple contraction to make the case that this rally isn't a valuation-driven bubble. The episode also covers the widening gap between mega-cap tech and the "lag 7," how AI is quietly showing up in small-cap and industrial stock returns, record highs across advance-decline lines, and why a stretched momentum trade doesn't have to mean disaster for the second half. Ryan and Sonu also swap origin stories marking their four- and seven-year anniversaries at Carson, react to Team USA's World Cup exit, and preview next week's mid-year outlook. [Key Takeaways] The S&P 500's 10% first-half return was driven almost entirely by fundamentals: earnings growth contributed 18 percentage points while multiple contraction subtracted about 8.5 points, meaning stocks are actually cheaper than they were six months ago. Forward margins have jumped from roughly 14.5% to 16% since January, contributing 10 percentage points to the year-to-date return alongside 8 points from sales growth tied to nominal GDP. Technology gained 33% in the first half even as the "Mag 7" fell about 4%, showing how much dispersion exists within the sector as AI-driven names pull away from laggards like Apple and Microsoft. AI's influence now stretches well beyond big tech: roughly 12 of the Russell 2000's 23% first-half gain traced back to AI-linked names, with industrials contributing more than financials. Multiple advance-decline lines, including the NYSE, S&P 500, small-cap, and global Dow, hit all-time highs, a breadth signal that has historically preceded market peaks by about 11 months on average. The S&P 500 momentum index's trailing one-year excess return sits in the 96th percentile versus the last 40 years, prompting Carson to trim some momentum exposure in favor of diversification rather than trying to time an exit. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome And Market Milestones 0:58 - Dow 53,000 And Summer Rally 3:26 - What Really Drove Returns 8:31 - AI Volatility Plus Sector Rotation 16:31 - Breadth Signals And Slingshot Stats 23:29 - Momentum Extremes And Risk Management 28:45 - Ryan’s Carson Origin Story 32:05 - Sonu’s Origin Story And AI Era 42:04 - World Cup Heartbreak And Leadership 47:57 - Payrolls Takeaways And Wrap-Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Stop, Drop, & Rotate (FvF Ep. 194)
In Episode 194 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the "June swoon" and the powerful market rotation shaking up underlying sector leadership. They analyze insights from Sonu's time at the Economic Club of New York, covering Scott Bessent’s speech on national security industrial policy, Kevin Warsh's influence at the Fed, and the broader message of the global market. The episode also digs into an unprecedented market breadth anomaly, a massive weekly outperformance in healthcare, the state of small caps, and why the current bull market is far from finished. From Apple’s steep hardware price hikes and roaring nominal consumer spending to structural lessons from the 1990s dot-com bubble, the conversation connects the week's biggest headlines to the harder macroeconomic data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 logged a five-day losing streak, yet advancing stocks outnumbered decliners every single day, a market anomaly unseen in nearly 30 years. Meanwhile, major advanced-decline lines hit all-time highs. While mega-cap tech paused, mid-caps rose 2.9% and small caps grew 3% month-to-date. Concurrently, healthcare staged an extraordinary 8% weekly jump, marking its largest weekly outperformance on record. Market warnings are often early; the S&P 500 doubled over the three years following Alan Greenspan's 1996 "irrational exuberance" speech. Navigating secular waves like AI requires strategic re-diversification, not exiting the equity market early. While inflation-adjusted real consumption sits around 2%, nominal spending rocketed at an 8.6% annualized pace over the last three months. Because corporate revenue is nominal, this massive wave of consumer spending continues to bolster corporate earnings. Driven by AI-related memory chip shortages, Apple announced steep price hikes including 30% for the HomePod mini and 55% for Apple TV. This demonstrates how one company's supply chain inflation becomes another tech supplier's margin expansion. Massive fiscal deficits at 6% to 7% of GDP mirror the late 1960s, continuing to inject liquidity and minimize near-term recession risks. We expect the Fed to keep rate cuts on pause as core services inflation remains sticky at a 4% annualized pace. While June represents a seasonally weak timeframe, July is historically the strongest month for stocks over the past 20 years, closing positive in 13 of the last 14 years. Jump to: 0:02 - Welcome And NYC Market Leaders 6:36 - June Swoon Turns Into Rotation 9:50 - Breadth Thrust And Sector Breakouts 16:24 - AI Momentum And Dotcom Lessons 27:40 - Inflation Pressures And Apple Pricing 33:32 - Fed Pause Risks And Fiscal Deficits 35:42 - July Seasonality And Wrap Up Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Let’s Run It Hot (FvF Ep. 193)
In Episode 193 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, talk about the passing of former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and what his 18-year tenure actually produced for markets. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as chair featured a statement that clocked in at roughly 130 words and told markets almost nothing about how the new Fed intends to make decisions. Sonu makes the case that despite all the hawkish headlines, dot plot drama, and a two-year yield that jumped 16 basis points on Fed day (the largest single-day move on a Fed decision since 2008), actual real policy rates are more accommodative now than they were in March. The committee is split 9-9 on whether to hike this year, Warsh has opted out of the dot plot entirely, and inflation is running well above target, with core PCE likely to finish the year above 3.3%. Apple's announcement that iPhone prices are going up due to memory chip shortages puts a real-world face on the inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. Meanwhile the Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday, which is the market's own vote on whether any of this is a crisis. The episode closes with a look at sector leadership, why communication services being down 6% to 7% year-to-date while tech is up 33% is genuinely strange, and why momentum breaking down is the signal to potentially worry about and why it isn't breaking down yet. Key Takeaways: Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan oversaw a 190% gain in the S&P 500 over 18 years, second only to William McChesney Martin. He also presided over two bubbles that burst within a decade, the tech crash, and the housing collapse, producing what remains the worst decade for equity investors in history. Kevin Warsh's first Fed statement came in at roughly 130 words, the shortest non-emergency statement in modern Fed history. He also declined to submit a dot plot projection. The practical effect is that markets are now pricing guidance from the other 18 members, who are not stepping back from the spotlight. The dot plot went 9-9 on whether to hike in 2026. Three months ago, 12 of 19 members expected at least one cut this year. That shift may explain the volatility. 428 S&P 500 stocks fell on Fed day, the broadest single-day decline of the year, but it does not automatically mean the Fed is hawkish. After subtracting the Fed's own inflation projections from its own rate projections, real policy rates are actually more accommodative now than in March, dropping from an implied 0.7% real rate to 0.5%. With core PCE running around 3.5% to 3.8% annualized, the real policy rate is effectively near zero. Apple's decision to raise iPhone prices due to memory chip shortages is the real-world confirmation of a broadening inflation story. PPI for semiconductor chips and printed circuit boards is running above 100% annualized. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, and S&P MidCap 400 all closed at all-time highs last Thursday. The NYSE advance-decline line and the small cap advance-decline line both hit all-time highs the prior Tuesday. Jump to: 0:00 — World Cup Weekend and Father’s Day 3:07 — Remembering Alan Greenspan’s Fed 8:05 — A New Chair and a Short Statement 13:25 — Dot Plot Split and Market Shock 19:45 — Yield Curve Signals and Bond Surprise 24:35 — AI Supply Chains and Price Pressure 28:20 — The Case for a Dovish Fed 34:40 — Economy Strength and Running It Hot 37:10 — A Car Break in Reality Check 40:35 — Breadth Seasonality and Sector Rotation 53:20 — Closing Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Talking Behavioral Finance with Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Richard Thaler (FvF Ep. 192)
In this special live episode of Facts vs Feelings from Carson's Second Quarter Summit in Chicago, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese sit down with Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Richard Thaler for a conversation that ranges from NFL draft strategy to retirement savings design to why markets keep producing events that are statistically supposed to be impossible. Thaler breaks down his "Loser's Curse" research on the NFL draft, explaining why top picks are systematically overvalued and why trading down is almost always the smarter move. Twenty years and a Nobel Prize later, teams have barely improved their ability to predict talent. The better-than-the-next-guy stat went from 52% to 53%. The conversation covers Bob Shiller's work on excess market volatility, what it actually means when 10-sigma events keep showing up every decade, and why the coming wave of major IPOs is forcing index providers into decisions that are anything but passive. On the behavioral side, Thaler walks through the three pillars that transformed 401k design: automatic enrollment, target date funds, and Save More Tomorrow and why the UK's approach to retirement mandates got the balance right. He also gets into mental accounting and why a $2 million gain in home equity has almost no impact on spending while a direct deposit hits a checking account and disappears immediately. Key Takeaways: NFL teams have had 20 years, full quant departments, and AI-powered scouting to improve on Richard Thaler's draft research. Their ability to rank players better than a coin flip moved from 52% to 53%. Tom Brady was picked 199. The first pick in the NFL draft is not worth six second-round picks. Trading down is the winning strategy, and trading a pick this year for a pick next year where the going rate is one round works out to roughly a 120% implied interest rate. When stocks get added to the S&P 500, the price pops. Andre Shleifer proved it in grad school with a paper called "Do Demand Curves Slope Down for Stocks?" The answer was yes, and it was controversial at the time. Now everyone knows it and the SpaceX IPO is about to test it at a scale the market has never seen. Buying an IPO on day one looks exciting and has historically cost investors around 30% in underperformance versus the market over the following three years, according to Jay Ritter's data. Making enrollment the default in 401k plans, rather than requiring employees to opt in, had a bigger impact on retirement savings rates than any amount of financial education. Which box comes pre-checked should be irrelevant. It isn't. A $2 million gain in home equity produces almost zero change in spending. The same money landing in a checking account gets spent. Mental accounting is not a quirk; it shapes how wealth actually moves through the economy, and you can't model the wealth effect without accounting for where the money sits. This episode was recorded on 4 June 2026, prior to the SpaceX IPO on 12 June 2026. Comments and opinions expressed at time stamp 18:40 and beyond regarding SpaceX and its anticipated public offering reflect information available at the time of recording. Jump to: 0:00 - Live From Chicago Kickoff 0:35 - Sponsor Message From Pimco 1:13 - Welcoming Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler 2:31 - The NFL Draft Loser’s Curse 9:03 - Can You Fire Your Team 10:31 - Why Markets Swing Too Much 18:35 - IPOs Index Rules And Demand Shocks 24:24 - Live T-Shirt Toss Intermission 25:47 - Nudges That Fix Retirement Saving 34:33 - Education Versus Mandates In Policy 38:45 - Fees Transparency And Trust 41:09 - Mental Accounting And The Wealth Effect 45:13 - Final Thanks And Sign-Off 45:42 - Important Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Live from Chicago with Jim Bianco and Jeff Kilburg (FvF Ep. 191)
In Episode 191 of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, go live from Chicago with Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO & CIO at KKM Financial, and Jim Bianco, President at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on where markets stand now and what could matter next. The episode centers on the bull market’s concentration in AI and large-cap tech, the durability of the rally, the role of active management, and why diversification may need to look different than it did a decade ago. The conversation also digs into earnings momentum, cross-ownership in AI, the impact of higher bond yields on long-duration assets, and whether software is being transformed or disrupted by AI. From bubbles and breadth to bond yields, oil shocks, and portfolio construction, the episode connects live market commentary to the forces shaping returns underneath the surface. Jump to: 0:00 — Live Crowd and Big Questions 1:48 — What A Bubble Really Means 6:00 — Earnings Momentum and AI Optimism 12:35 — Circular Ownership and AI ROI 16:05 — AI Replaces Software or Adds Cost 21:55 — 60/40 Is Not Dead Just Different 30:10 — Return Stacking and Better Diversifiers 36:30 — Oil, Inflation Volatility, and Bonds 41:40 — Concentration, Active Picks, And Dispersion 47:20 — Hard-Won Advice and Closing Thanks Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)
In Episode 190 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, take on the SpaceX IPO and what it could mean for indexes, mega-cap weights, and the next phase of the AI trade. They’re joined by Blake Anderson, Director of Portfolio Management at Carson Group, for a wide-ranging conversation on market breadth, small caps, tech leadership, Google’s AI spending, software, and the growing influence of data centers and high-quality cash flows in today’s market. The episode also digs into the latest rally in stocks, the role of FOMO, the state of the bond market, and why this bull market may still have more room to run even as leadership narrows. From IPO mechanics and index inclusion rules to the economics of AI infrastructure, the conversation connects the market’s biggest headlines to the harder data underneath. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 is up nine consecutive weeks. When it has gained more than 15% in April and May combined, June has never been lower and the rest of the year averages nearly 19% gains. Small caps are up 18% year-to-date and it seems like nobody is talking about it. A third of those returns trace back to three companies, all tied to data centers and AI infrastructure. SpaceX chose the Nasdaq, and Nasdaq changed its rules. Mega-cap companies can now be assessed for index inclusion just 15 days post-IPO instead of waiting six months. At a $2 trillion valuation against $19 billion in 2025 revenue, SpaceX carries a price-to-sales ratio above 90. Historically, IPOs with price-to-sales above 40 average a 94% first-day pop, but a negative 45% three-year return. A deal disclosed in the SpaceX S1 could see Anthropic pay up to $15 billion annually for data center capacity, nearly matching SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue in a single contract. Google is raising $80 billion in equity and has cut buybacks to zero. AI infrastructure spending has moved from optional to existential, with payoff timing still uncertain. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the SpaceX question 1:19 — Markets rip higher after the spring rally 10:33 — Breadth, small caps, and hidden leaders 14:10 — FOMO signals and the bubble check 15:59 — Blake joins on tech and rates 20:48 — Google funds AI data centers 26:22 — Software’s AI reset and data moats 29:13 — SpaceX IPO filing and index rule changes 43:01 — IPO stats, valuation risk, and consumer wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #SpaceXIPO #FactsVsFeelings #investing #stockmarket #AI #techinvesting #IPO #smallcaps #SP500 #bullmarket #NVIDIA #Starlink #Anthropic #OpenAI #marketanalysis #portfoliomanagement #indexfunds #WallStreet #fintech #CarsonGroup
Deal or No Deal (FvF Ep. 189)
In Episode 189 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, break down the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what the hard data is actually showing. They connect the dots between oil prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and why markets may not be reacting to geopolitical headlines the way many investors expect. It’s a real-time look at the K-shaped economy: tighter budgets at the bottom, resilient spending at the top. Ryan and Sonu walk through stretched momentum after an eight-week rally, sector rotation beneath the surface, and another massive earnings season. They also explain why private AI investments are quietly becoming a meaningful contributor to public company profits, something many investors still aren’t fully accounting for. Key Takeaways: Oil prices, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations remain tightly connected even when markets appear calm. Consumer behavior is splitting across income levels, reinforcing the idea of a K-shaped economy. Soft data like sentiment surveys continues diverging from hard data like earnings and employment. Earnings, buyback activity, and AI exposure are reshaping market leadership. Market momentum remains strong, but sector leadership underneath the surface keeps rotating. Bond markets may be the biggest force shaping Fed expectations and investor behavior going Jump to: 3:06 — Strait Tensions and Oil Prices 6:41 — The All-Electric Ferrari Debate 8:39 — Consumer Strain Signals 13:15 — Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Lows 21:37 — Home Water Leaks and Insurance Headaches 25:18 — Sector Breadth and Market Leadership 33:15 — Momentum Crowding and the Win Streak 37:41 —Earnings and Buybacks 45:01 — Private AI Valuations Inside Public Earnings 48:13 —Health Data and AI Coaching 50:44 — Chicago Live Show Details 54:00 — Grading Powell and New Fed Risks 1:05:12 — Fed Hike Odds and Week Ahead Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Welcome to the Party, Mr. Warsh (FvF Ep. 188)
In Episode 188 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, welcome new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh the only way they know how: with data, context, and zero sugarcoating. When Jerome Powell took over in February 2018, the Dow dropped 4.6% on his first day, the worst debut of any Fed chair in modern memory. This time, it’s not the equity market doing the hazing. It’s the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield sits above 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's yields just hit levels not seen since the 1990s. Ryan and Sonu explain why the dynamics that once pushed foreign money into Treasuries are quietly reversing and what that means for U.S. investors. From there, Sonu walks through industrial production data that almost nobody is talking about. Manufacturing is running at nearly 5% annualized. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. This is hard data, not a survey, and it runs directly counter to the narrative that the economy is softening. Then comes earnings. With 91% of S&P 500 companies reported, earnings growth is running at 27% against expectations of 13%. Communication services, expected to be down nearly 4%, came in up roughly 40%. The consumer is holding up, too, with retail sales running at 13% annualized and 95.2% of all household debt paid on time per the New York Fed. The episode closes with a look at what to watch: NVIDIA earnings, FOMC minutes, and a bond market both hosts are keeping a very close eye on. Key Takeaways: The bond market is testing Kevin Warsh the same way equity markets tested every Fed chair before him, and the dynamics driving yields higher are not going away quickly. AI is showing up in the hard data, not just stock prices. High-tech equipment production is up 61% above 2019 levels in real terms. S&P 500 growth came in at 27% against a 13% estimate during earnings season. Communication services swung from an expected decline of nearly 4% to a gain of roughly 40%. The two-year Treasury yield above the Fed funds rate signals the market believes the Fed is behind the curve. Rate cut calls from the sell side are, in Sonu's words, a John McEnroe moment. The S&P 500 is up seven consecutive weeks, gaining over 16% during that stretch. One year after prior streaks of this magnitude, the market has never been lower and is up 16% on average. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Who's Running the Fed? 6:10 — Bonds Are Testing the New Fed Chair 13:05 — Manufacturing Heats Up and AI Shows Up in Hard Data 21:40 — Japan Sparks a Global Yield Reprice 34:55 — Portfolio Moves on Duration and Cash 43:55 — Earnings and AI Spending 49:20 — Consumer Strength, Retail Sales, and Final Thoughts Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Party Like It's 1999 (FvF Ep. 187)
In Episode 187 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, ask the question on every investor's mind: Does today's market feel like 1999? The episode opens with genuine nostalgia. Ryan recalls tripling his play money on Sycamore and Juniper Networks before losing it all on margin. Sonu remembers 75% of his engineering class having job offers by August of senior year. The vibes were very different then. From there, Ryan and Sonu dig into the numbers raising eyebrows. Semiconductors now make up roughly 22% of the S&P 500, up from around 6% at last April's lows. A telecom ETF built around AI infrastructure is up 44% year to date. These are not boring numbers. But beneath all that heat, sentiment is in the toilet, breadth is holding up, and credit spreads are making new cycle lows in ways that look nothing like the quiet deterioration that began in 1998. Ryan and Sonu make the case that this is not 1999. Not yet, anyway. Then Sonu drops inflation data that deserves a second read. Computer software and accessories, where AI token and cloud spending shows up in CPI, is running at an 83% annualized pace over the last three months. The Fed has a real problem. Ryan and Sonu walk through why stable jobs plus hard inflation plus a dovish Fed still adds up to bullish for equities, before closing out with a stronger-than-expected labor market update, a preview of the US-China trade meeting, and a record-breaking Uber ride from O'Hare to Cedar Rapids. Key Takeaways: Semiconductor stocks and AI infrastructure names are posting numbers that feel frothy on the surface, but earnings growth and genuine demand provide far more fundamental support than the dot-com era ever did. The NYSE advance decline line just hit an all-time high. In 1998, it peaked 18 months before the market did. That divergence is not happening today. AI-related inflation is real and showing up in the data. Computer software in PCE is running nearly 60% annualized over the last six months. This is not just an energy or tariff story. The S&P 500 has posted six consecutive weekly gains totaling over 16%, the second best such streak on record. One year later, the market has historically been up 17% on average. The labor market is quietly stabilizing. Blue-collar sectors that were bleeding jobs in 2024 are turning around, and prime-age employment sits at its highest ratio since before the 2008 financial crisis. The longer the Fed delays action on inflation, the greater the Volcker-style risk in 2027 or 2028. The AI capex boom has driven roughly 45% of real GDP growth over the last five quarters. When that fades, the math changes. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and the 1999 Question 2:00 — College Memories and Dot Com Vibes 6:20 — New Highs with Rotten Sentiment 10:30 — Frothy Semis and Leverage Lessons 15:50 — AI Infrastructure Trade and Sector Gaps 22:40 — Breadth, Credit Spreads, and Bull Signals 33:10 — CPI Heat from Tariffs and AI Bottlenecks 41:50 — Fed Risks and When Booms Break 49:40 — Payrolls Update and Blue-Collar Turn 54:20 — China Trade Talk, Travel Chaos, and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)
In Episode 186 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by a genuine industry legend, Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, now celebrating its 60th year. And yes, Jeff is also turning 60 this month. The conversation starts where May always takes us. "Sell in May and Go Away." Jeff immediately sets the record straight. It's not about selling everything on May 1. It's about repositioning, spring cleaning your portfolio, tightening stops, and getting ready for the historically weakest six months of the year. He walks through how MACD signals layered on seasonal patterns sharpen entries and exits, which sectors shine during the weak months, and why the Nasdaq's growing weight in the S&P 500 has stretched that weak window further into June. From there, the episode covers the Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth-year tailwinds, and how the midterm-year setup historically creates one of the best buying opportunities on the calendar. Jeff makes a candid near-term call on gold, makes the case for utilities and staples during the weak months, and explains why the mutual fund October 31 deadline is the true engine behind all of it. Oh, and Sonu's birthday is May 4. So officially: reposition on Sonu's birthday, go sober on Ryan's. Key Takeaways: "Sell in May" is widely misunderstood. The real strategy is repositioning, not abandoning the market entirely. Jeff uses MACD crossover signals layered on seasonal patterns to time entries (on or after October 1) and exits (on or after April 1 for the S&P 500, June 1 for Nasdaq). The Trump presidential cycle pattern, the sixth year of the decade, and the sixth year of the presidency all point toward a strong year. Jeff's target range is 8% to 12%, with 15% possible if geopolitical risks resolve. Utilities (XLU) and consumer staples are Jeff's preferred sector plays for the weak six months, with added tailwinds from data center electricity demand and dividends. Gold looks like a near-term top after a massive run. Jeff is watching for a seasonal re-entry opportunity in July or August. The real driver behind October seasonality is the mutual fund October 31 fiscal year-end deadline, which creates institutional churn, window dressing, and the conditions for the classic "bear killer" October bounce. Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Meet Jeff Hirsch 1:37 — Sell in May Reframed 6:25 — MACD Signals and Seasonality 10:55 — Sector Plays for the Weak Months 14:55 — The Trump Cycle and Midterm Choppiness 22:45 — Why Seasonal Patterns Exist 35:05 — International Ideas and Cash Choices 44:05 — Dead Indicators and the 401(k) Flow Shift 50:10 — Gold, Grains, Options, and Calendar Quirks 53:05 — Where to Follow Jeff and Wrap Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Jeff: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffrey-hirsch-8285358/ • X: https://x.com/AlmanacTrader?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)
In Episode 185 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are recording live from Omaha at PodPony's studio during Carson's Q2 board meeting. They make a pilgrimage to the McDonald's on 40th and Dodge that Warren Buffett reportedly frequents. They got the scoop on his usual order, but did Buffett himself show up? You'll have to listen to find out! On the markets side, Ryan breaks down why the current secular bull market started in 2013 and what history says happens after you're up 100%, which is exactly where this bull market now stands from the October 2022 lows. The S&P just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, and the data on "sell in May" may surprise you. Ryan's numbers show May has been up 12 of the last 13 years. The episode also covers the oil picture with WTI back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation still unresolved, the consumer sentiment disconnect between how people feel and what retail sales are actually showing, and the Fed outlook heading into tomorrow's decision. Sonu explains why Kevin Walsh is leaning on trimmed mean PCE to justify rate cuts, and Ryan calls him out for putting everyone to sleep. Gold gets a candid look too, still in a long-term bull market but stretched after a massive run, with real rate pressure creating some short-term headwinds. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500 just hit its 10th all-time high of the year, and the bull market has officially crossed the 100% gain mark from the October 2022 lows. Forward profit margins just reached a record 15.2%, the highest ever recorded. Ryan makes the case that the current secular bull market began in 2013 and explains what history says comes next. Sell in May is largely a myth. May has been up 12 of the last 13 years. WTI is back near $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation has not resolved the way markets hoped. Consumer sentiment remains near historic lows, but retail sales tell a very different story. Gold is still in a long-term bull market but faces short-term headwinds from real rate pressure after an extended run. Jump to: 0:00 - Live from Omaha Setup 1:59 - All-Time Highs and Oil Shock 6:10 - Why Sentiment Feels So Low 11:27 - Board Meeting and Real Money 13:22 - Will AI Kill Investing Alpha? 16:09 - When Secular Bull Markets Start 21:00 - Global Breakouts and Gold Debate 22:36 - Rates, Inflation, and the Fed Shift 26:49 - Trimmed Mean PCE Explained 29:49 - Sell in May: Stats Check 32:58 - Bull Market Up 100% — Now What? 36:22 - McDonald's Hunt for Buffett 41:33 - Wrap-Up and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Social Hour With Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith (Social Hour Ep. 4)
The Social Hour is back for its 4th episode — and this one covered a lot of ground. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the financial media world: Josh Schafer, Newsletter Editor and Investing Personality at Barron's Investor Circle, and Talmon Smith, Economics Reporter at The New York Times. Fair warning: Ryan's 140-pound Great Pyrenees may or may not have been snoring in the background, Talmon showed up fashionably late on Central Time, and somehow the conversation ended with a tease about something big coming to Omaha. But in between? Plenty of substance. They dig into semiconductors ripping 18 days in a row, the Intel comeback story nobody saw coming, and why AI infrastructure names from chips to optical networking to data center builders keep defying expectations. Josh breaks down what's actually driving the earnings surprise story, why FOMO is back in the market, and what the tailwinds (or lack thereof) look like for the back half of the year. Talmon brings the macro and human side of things, connecting the dots between surging corporate margins, collapsing consumer sentiment, and what affordability really means for everyday Americans. Sonu drops some eye-opening services inflation data that reframes the whole "inflation is solved" narrative. Key Takeaways: Semis on a historic run: The SOX up 18 consecutive days with broad breadth, not just Nvidia Intel's surprise: Earnings estimates doubled overnight and the turnaround thesis is gaining traction AI infrastructure trade alive and well: Telecom ETF names like Iridium and Lumentum up 100%+ YTD Earnings boom: 26% EPS growth across 25% of S&P 500 reporters and this isn't just Big Tech Consumer sentiment vs. stock market: Why both can be true at the same time Services inflation running hot: Personal care, dental, and vehicle rentals all well above target The Fed's hands are tied: Labor market steady, inflation sticky, no clear path to cuts GDP watch: Real GDP print incoming, brace for noise and focus on nominal Josh Schafer and Talmon Smith are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 Disclosures and Social Hour Kickoff 1:15 Meet Barron's Josh Schafer 6:30 Semiconductors Rip on AI Buildout 10:20 Intel's Surprise Turnaround Narrative 14:10 Powell Drama Fades as Stocks Rally 18:35 Tech Layoffs and the Capex Squeeze 22:10 Earnings Boom Meets Inflation Pain 25:40 Talmon Smith on Affordability and Sentiment 37:50 The Fed's Dilemma and the 2% Target 52:40 GDP Angst and Market Narrative Confusion 59:30 Where to Follow and What's Next Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Talmon: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tal-smith-b1898a326/ • X: https://x.com/talmonsmith Connect with Josh: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-schafer-b24723132/ • X: https://x.com/_JoshSchafer Questions? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
The Bull is Back (FvF Ep. 184)
In Episode 184 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most historic 13-day market rallies ever recorded and ask the question most investors are afraid to answer: Are the lows for 2026 already in? Ryan and Sonu break down what actually drove the comeback—not just momentum, but a fundamental shift in the earnings picture. Forward EPS estimates are rising sharply across tech, energy, and materials, and margin expansion is now the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns. They explain why nominal GDP growth of 5% to 6% is fueling corporate profits even as consumer sentiment sits near historic lows, and why that gap between how people feel and how they actually spend tells the real story of this market. The episode also covers portfolio construction in a structurally inflationary world, why telecom has quietly surged 40%, why hard assets and managed futures are outperforming bonds, and what this bull market's three-and-a-half-year track record says about where things go from here. Key Takeaways: The SP 500's largest 13-day rally in history was driven by fundamentals, not just relief Forward EPS estimates are rising across tech, energy, and materials, three sectors making up 40% of the index Margin expansion is the single biggest contributor to year-to-date S&P 500 returns Consumer spending remains strong in nominal terms even as real income growth is flat Telecom has surged 40% and remains one of the most overlooked positions in diversified models Bull markets that reach Year 3 have made it to Year 4 seven out of eight times historically Ryan believes the 9.1% drawdown in early 2026 marked the lows for the year Jump to: 0:00 — Welcome and Quick Setup 0:31 — X Account Hack and Security Lessons 3:41 — Livestream Guests and Schedule 8:30 — Ryan's New CNBC Contributor Role 9:58 — New Highs and a Historic Rally 16:08 — Tim Cook's Legacy and Apple's AI Strategy 22:06 — Earnings Growth vs. Valuation Multiples 29:27 — Sector Profits: Energy, Tech, and Materials 37:20 — Consumer Spending Amid Low Confidence 44:15 — Retail Sales and Inflationary Growth 47:16 — Portfolio Positioning for Real Economy Trends 50:09 — Hype Cycles and the Allbirds AI Story 53:34 — Are the Lows In for 2026? 56:15 — Omaha Teaser, Closing, and Disclosures Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)
A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today’s biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics. In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days. The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others. If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots. Jump to: 0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction 2:05 Rory’s Path Into Oil Analysis 6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics 10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins 20:50 The Double Blockade Explained 27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets 29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction 33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative 36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation 50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent 57:22 Where To Follow Rory And Closing Connect with Ryan: • Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Rory Johnston: • Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/ • X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Who’s the Skunk at the Party? (FvF Ep. 182)
In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party? Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot. The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life. Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year. Key Takeaways: - Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk. - Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities. - The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration. - Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign. - Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever. - Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher. Jump to: 0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory Johnston Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook [inflation risk stock market 2026, Jamie Dimon inflation warning, WTI crude oil price surge, real yields and equity valuations, March jobs report analysis, labor market break-even rate immigration, youth unemployment trends 2026, Fed rate cut outlook 2026, managed futures portfolio diversification, small cap value stocks outperforming, midterm year market volatility history, portfolio construction inflation environment, geopolitical crisis oil prices, low hire low fire economy, Rory Johnston commodity context]
Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel? (FvF Ep. 181)
In Episode 181 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into one of the most consequential geopolitical developments in recent memory, the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, and what it means for oil markets, global supply chains, and your portfolio. They break down what it would mean if the U.S. exits the conflict without reopening the strait, why Iran could emerge as a de facto regional hegemon, and how a potential toll system on tanker traffic could reshape global energy economics. They also explore why crude oil remains stubbornly elevated despite ceasefire signals, the growing "air pocket" in global oil supply as floating storage drains, and the long term instability risks including nuclear proliferation that could keep an ongoing risk premium baked into energy prices. On the markets side, Ryan and Sonu make the case that this pullback is unlike any bear market on record, with the S&P 500 taking an unusually long time to reach even a 5% decline from its peak. They walk through why the year to date drawdown is almost entirely explained by multiple contraction and not deteriorating earnings, and how forward EPS and profit margins continue to hit new highs even as headlines stay grim. The duo also examine the dramatic drawdowns in mega cap tech names, why the market may be pricing in a recession that isn't materializing, and why diversification across sectors, styles, and geographies is paying off in ways many investors haven't seen in years. The episode wraps with a Disney and Universal trip report, Sonu's allergy update, Ryan's eye health journey, and a big congratulations to his daughter Susanna on her college commitment to Penn State. Key Takeaways: Trump withdrawing without reopening the strait could establish Iran as the dominant regional power A tanker toll system could generate $100B+ annually for Iran, reshaping Middle East geopolitics The S&P 500 decline is 100% multiple contraction; earnings and margins remain strong tailwinds Forward 12 month EPS is up 7% in Q1 alone, with half of that gain coming during the crisis No bear market since WWII has started with such a slow initial 5% decline, a historically unusual pattern Mega cap tech stocks are down 22 to 35% from highs, pricing in a recession that hasn't arrived Diversification across value, international, commodities, and small caps is quietly working Jump to: 0:00 – Welcome and the Great Kit Kat Heist 2:10 – Trump's Potential Pullback and Hormuz Control 5:50 – Iran's Toll Scenario and Global Leverage 9:10 – Why Oil Stays Elevated Despite Peace Signals 11:55 – Energy as a Strategic Hedge Trade 16:10 – Hedging Activity and Encouraging Market Breadth 18:45 – Tanker Traffic Slowdown and Supply Time Lags 22:05 – Floating Storage Drawdown Explained 35:23 – Mega Cap Tech Drawdowns and Recession Pricing 41:10 – Slow Burn Selloff and What the VIX Is Telling Us 48:05 – Diversification Lessons From Lost Decades 56:50 – Final Thoughts and Listener Requests Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Social Hour With Sam Ro & Frank Cappelleri (Social Hour Ep. 3)
The Social Hour is back for its 3rd episode — and this one did not disappoint. Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, are joined by two sharp voices from the industry: Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, and Sam Ro, founder of TKer. Fair warning: Sonu joins live from Epcot, Ryan gets an unexpected visit from housekeeping mid-stream, and the conversation somehow wraps up with a heated debate about Predator Badlands. But in between, there's a lot of substance. They dig into what's been driving market volatility, why closing near the lows matters more than the headlines, and what the technicals are actually telling us right now. Frank shares his screen and walks through charts on trading boxes, the VIX, and the tech-to-energy rotation that's hitting historic extremes. Sam breaks down why diversification still makes sense even when everything seems to move together, and what consumer spending data is, and isn't, telling us. Sonu connects the dots between oil supply disruptions, the Fed's difficult position, and what it would actually take to spark a near-term rally. Key Takeaways: Closes near the lows matter: 11 of the last 12 sessions closing weak signals bears are in control Tech vs. energy rotation: The ratio just hit its lowest weekly RSI reading in recorded history Private credit check-in: Why it doesn't look systemic, yet, and what to watch The Fed's dilemma: Inflation keeps running hot; how long can they stay patient? Bitcoin watch: Still hasn't made a new low and that might mean something Diversification reminder: Mag 7 drawdowns are a painful but timely lesson Frank Cappelleri and Sam Ro are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Jump to: 0:00 - Welcome & Guest Intros 6:21 - Why Markets Turned Ugly 11:06 - Oil Supply Fears & What It Takes To Rally 22:20 - Private Credit Systemic Risk Debate 30:50 - Chart Read: Weak Closes, VIX & the 200-Day Line 43:36 - Energy Surge vs. AI Capital Spending 52:24 - Gold, The Fed Box & Bitcoin As A Risk Signal Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/ • X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/ • X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en Connect with Sam: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammyro/ • X: https://x.com/SamRo Connect with Frank: • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-cappelleri-cfa-cmt-a319483/ • X: https://x.com/FrankCappelleri Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
