Wednesday: Texas Turns Purple, and We Owe You Crow

Rush LindellReagan, do you remember what I said on this very show last week?

ReaganVividly.

Rush LindellI said, and I quote myself because I'm proud of my work, "Texas is red. It's staying red. Don't waste your breath." The numbers just made a liar out of me.

ReaganA pretty spectacular one.

Rush LindellThis is The Rush Limbaugh Show with Reagan, where every Wednesday we tell you what's actually happening in politics, even when it means torching our own take from seven days ago.

ReaganWhich we're doing today.

Rush LindellOh, we are doing it today. Talarico's up on Paxton. Multiple polls, not one fluke number, a pattern.

ReaganA pattern is different than a headline.

Rush LindellWait for it, Cook Political Report itself flipped the seat. The seat I told you was safe.

ReaganSeriously?

Rush LindellSerious.

ReaganKen Paxton's had a rough month even before the polling, and I wanna sort out how much of this is him personally versus something bigger in Texas.

Rush LindellA question so good we're building an entire segment around it. Right after this.

ReaganToday's episode is brought to you by Lear Capital. If watching Texas polling move this fast makes you want something that doesn't swing on a news cycle, that's their whole pitch.

Rush LindellGrab a coffee, sit down, we're eating crow, and there's a lot of it. Okay, I already ate the crow in the open, so let's not replay the whole tape, but the short version is I called it wrong.

ReaganYou said it with real confidence, too.

Rush LindellI did. I was practically doing a victory lap for Paxton before the man even needed one. He-

ReaganAnd now...

Rush LindellNow I'm standing in the wreckage of my own take, Reagan.

ReaganWelcome to it.

Rush LindellThank you, thank you. Very supportive.

ReaganI didn't say it was going to be comfortable.

Rush LindellNo, no, comfortable left the building. Because Cook Political Report, the same outfit whose ratings we've quoted 100 times on this show to prove Texas was locked down, just moved that Senate seat to a true toss-up.

ReaganNot leans Republican, toss-up.

Rush LindellToss-up. That's their word, not mine.

ReaganRight. Same seat we already flagged in the cold open.

Rush LindellExactly, and it's not just a headline, it's their actual rating.

ReaganSo what changed their math?

Rush LindellWe're getting there, but sit with that for a second because Cook doesn't move a Texas Senate seat because somebody had a bad debate performance.

ReaganThey move it when the numbers force them to.

Rush LindellRight, and here's the part that stings. This isn't some hypothetical down the road worry. Texas early voting starts October 19th.

ReaganSo whatever's happening, it's happening on a clock.

Rush LindellA very short one. Days ago I'm telling you Texas is fine, don't worry about it, and now I've got a calendar staring at me.

ReaganYou did frame it as GOP-favored pretty flatly.

Rush LindellI did. In writing. On this show. With my own voice.

ReaganI believe there's a recording.

Rush LindellThere's always a recording, that's the problem with radio. Well, look, I'm not gonna sit here and pretend the ground didn't move. Something happened between last week and this week.

ReaganQuestion is whether it's Paxton-specific or something bigger. We already flagged that.

Rush LindellWe flagged it, we haven't answered it, and I don't wanna answer it off vibes.

ReaganSo don't.

Rush LindellI won't, because here's the thing that actually convinced me to eat my own words.

ReaganGo on.

Rush LindellIt's not one poll telling this story.

ReaganHow many?

Rush LindellThree, Reagan. Three separate polls, three separate outfits, same direction.

ReaganThat's not noise.

Rush LindellThat's not noise, that's a pattern. So let's actually look at where these numbers came from. Marist's own release has it 50 to 44, Talarico over Paxton, registered voters.

ReaganSix points. Inside the traditional cushion, but real.

Rush LindellYou want the part that actually worries me?

ReaganGo.

Rush LindellTalarico's winning independents 55% in that same Marist number.

ReaganThat's not a scandal bump, Rush. That's a coalition.

Rush LindellI felt that in my chest.

ReaganMarist also has 52% of all voters still saying Paxton wins anyway.

Rush LindellSo the electorate thinks he's losing the room but winning the race?

ReaganSplit personality electorate, sure.

Rush LindellNow go look at Texas Public Opinion Research. They've got Talarico up five, 49 to 44.

ReaganDifferent pollster, same shape.

Rush LindellAnd NBC5 Dallas and Telemundo ran their own separately, 46-43.

ReaganTighter number, same guy on top.

Rush LindellThree outfits, three methodologies, and Paxton's underwater in every single one.

ReaganThe Hill's reporting on that Texas Public Opinion Research poll also has Talarico ahead on cost of living.

Rush LindellWait, cost of living? That's supposed to be Republican lane this cycle.

Reagan49 to 42, and he's ahead on AI and data centers too, which sure, nobody's plastering on a yard sign.

Rush LindellTalarico, but it tells you people trust him on the boring stuff, not just the scandal stuff.

ReaganRight, and that's the piece that should actually worry a campaign. You can survive a bad news cycle. It's harder to survive losing the argument on kitchen table issues.

Rush LindellBecause scandal headlines fade, a grocery bill doesn't.

ReaganExactly. One's a cycle problem, the other's a lived experience problem, and lived experience problems don't go away when the news moves on.

Rush LindellWhich is probably why three separate outfits converged on the same shape here.

ReaganThat's usually a signal, not a coincidence.

Rush LindellOkay, now the one that should have ended my career on the spot, Big Data Poll, four points, Talarico over Paxton.

ReaganAnd they're calling the race a toss-up outright.

Rush LindellA toss-up in Texas. I need a minute.

ReaganTake two. But here's what none of those toplines tell you by themselves

Rush LindellYeah, twist the knife

ReaganA topline is just who's ahead today. It doesn't tell you why, or who's actually shifting to get there.

Rush LindellFair.

ReaganMarist independence number is the tell. That's not Paxton's base defecting. His base is still his base.

Rush LindellIt's the people in the middle deciding they've seen enough.

ReaganAnd that's a different question than, is Paxton toxic this week? That's a question about where Texas voters who don't wear a jersey are landing.

Rush LindellThat's the number that keeps me up.

ReaganSo before we crown this a red state revolt, we should look at who those independents actually are, and whether that same movement shows up anywhere else on the ballot.

Rush LindellOkay, we already covered that independents versus expectation split from Marist. No need to run that lap twice.

ReaganAgreed. Let's build straight off it instead of re-explaining it.

Rush LindellDeal. So here's what else was buried in that release.

ReaganThere's more in that same poll than just who's ahead today.

Rush LindellWell, here's a number nobody's talking about. Same Marist survey, the generic congressional ballot, Democrats up three, forty-nine to Forty-six.

ReaganAnd two years ago, in that same poll, Republicans had a seven-point edge.

Rush LindellA ten-point swing in Texas.

ReaganThat's not one candidate drifting. That's the whole ballot sliding.

Rush LindellWait, so it's not Talarico's charm, it's a party-wide slide?

ReaganLooks that way. And it's not just polling on vibes either. Texas Public Opinion Research has him ahead on substance.

Rush LindellLike what?

ReaganCost of living, and how to handle AI and data centers.

Rush LindellData centers? People are voting on data centers now?

ReaganWith what the grid's been doing to bills down here, that's kitchen table stuff, not some wonky side issue.

Rush LindellHuh, did not have that on my bingo card for a Senate race.

ReaganAt that point, it's less about Talarico, and more a referendum on the guy already in office.

Rush LindellOkay, but let me push on this, because referendum is a big word. Is this Ken Paxton specifically, or is this Republicans generally in Texas right now?

ReaganThat's the honest disagreement, and I don't think we can fully separate the two yet. Some of it's clearly Paxton. The scandal cycle around him is real, and it's ugly. But a ten-point swing on the generic congressional ballot isn't something one man's headlines can fully explain.

Rush LindellSo even if Paxton personally cleaned up his act tomorrow, you're telling me the ballot might still be moving underneath him.

ReaganI'm saying it's possible, and we genuinely don't have enough in front of us right now to rule that out, which is exactly why the next piece of this, what's actually happening with Paxton specifically, scandal by scandal, matters so much. One version of this story is Texas got tired of one man. The other version is Texas is shifting, and he just happened to be standing in the middle of it.

Rush LindellNo argument there. All right, Reagan, numbers are numbers, but let's talk about why some of this might be Paxton's own fault.

ReaganNow we're getting somewhere.

Rush LindellOh, we are. Paxton's got a scandal cloud thicker than Houston smog right now.

ReaganWhich one? The man's collecting them.

Rush LindellTake your pick. There's the mistress scandal, an alleged tourist confrontation, and ethics violation headlines all stacked up in the same news cycle.

ReaganA real murderer's row of bad press.

Rush LindellAnd it's not new either. The Daily Beast picked this up and called it Paxton's fourteen-year-old scandal coming back to haunt him, and John Oliver's show ran with it too.

ReaganFourteen years old.

Rush LindellFourteen years, buried, and it just crawled back out of the grave.

ReaganOkay, but that's my problem with the scandal-only theory. If this stuff is old news, why is it moving numbers now?

Rush LindellMaybe it's not the scandal. Maybe the scandal is just the excuse people needed to say the quiet part out loud.

ReaganOr maybe Texans just finally noticed. I genuinely don't know which one it is yet.

Rush LindellNeither do I, and I'm supposed to be the guy with the hot takes.

ReaganRare admission.

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ReaganHere we go

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Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com right now.

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Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com right now.

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Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com.

Rush LindellAll right, scandal or realignment? That's still the open question hanging over Paxton.

ReaganWe'll settle that right after this.

Rush LindellOkay, so here's the part that actually stopped me cold this morning.

ReaganGo.

Rush LindellCook Political Report didn't just move the Senate race. Same report, same day, they moved Abbott's race to safe Republican down to leans right.

ReaganWait, Abbott? Greg Abbott could run unopposed Abbott?

Rush LindellThat Abbott.

ReaganOkay, now that's a different animal.

Rush LindellRight? Because Paxton's got the mistress, the tourist thing, the ethics headlines. Abbott's got none of that. Abbott's clean, and he's sliding anyway.

ReaganNewsweek actually talked to a Texas Politics Project analyst about exactly this, and the quote was that Abbott's usual cushion over Gina Hinojosa has kept shrinking summer into fall.

Rush LindellKept shrinking, not spiked, shrinking month over month.

ReaganAnd there's one September poll, just one, where Hinojosa is actually ahead of him.

Rush LindellSay that again.

ReaganAhead, Abbott behind in a poll.

Rush LindellDude, I need a minute.

ReaganTake it, because Slate's got the number that makes it worse.

Rush LindellWorse how?

ReaganAbbott has never in his entire career won a statewide race by fewer than 11 points.

Rush Lindell11? That's not a governor, that's a coronation.

ReaganAnd right now his lead in the polling averages is down to a couple points.

Rush LindellA couple?

ReaganA couple.

Rush LindellSo the guy who wins by football scores is suddenly in a field goal range.

ReaganThat's the image, yeah.

Rush LindellWalk me through why that matters practically. A couple points in a polling average, is that just noise this far out, or does it actually change how a campaign operates?

ReaganIt changes everything about how you spend the next few weeks. When you're up double digits, you don't run scared. You bank money. You play it safe. You let the incumbency do the work. When you're up two, you have to actually go find every last voter.

Rush LindellSo Abbott's team goes from cruise control to knocking on doors.

ReaganExactly. And that shift alone tells you the campaign itself believes the polling, whether or not they'll admit it publicly.

Rush LindellWhich is a very different posture than safe Republican.

ReaganCompletely different posture. And here's the other thing worth sitting with, Abbott hasn't had to actually campaign like this in years. We don't know yet whether that muscle still works for him.

Rush LindellThat's a very polite way of asking if the guy's out of practice.

ReaganI'm asking if any of them are. When you haven't had to fight for a race in over a decade, close races expose things easy wins never do.

Rush LindellAnd nobody's mistress is involved in that race. Nobody's under ethics investigation. That's just the ground shifting under him.

ReaganWhich is exactly why you can't hang all of this on Paxton anymore.

Rush LindellNo. If Abbott's bleeding too, this was never a, a one-man scandal story.

ReaganSo if the governor's race is moving, that tells us something bigger is happening under both races.

Rush LindellAnd nobody's watching where else is showing up.

ReaganExactly. Forget the top of the ticket for a second. Let's go down ballot. Let's look at the Texas House seats nobody's talking about.

Rush LindellNow that's the segment I want. While everybody's staring at Paxton, Cook Political Report just quietly dropped a whole analysis on the Texas House map. Nobody's reading it.

ReaganBecause it's not sexy, it's redistricting.

Rush LindellRedistricting that Trump personally pushed for mid-decade to squeeze up to five more House seats out of Texas for Republicans.

ReaganRight, the mid-decade map redraw from earlier this year.

Rush LindellFive seats, that was the plan. Draw new lines, lock it in, walk away with a bigger House majority before anyone can vote.

ReaganAnd...

Rush LindellAnd Cook's own analysis says it's not landing clean. Two South Texas Democrats, Cuellar and Gonzales, are sitting in newly drawn districts that are still genuinely competitive.

ReaganThose are heavily Latino districts. The whole redistricting bet was that those voters had drifted Republican enough to hold.

Rush LindellThat's the bet. Cook says it's not settled.

ReaganWait, didn't Cuellar already survive one scandal-adjacent cycle?

Rush LindellHe did. Man's a cockroach, politically speaking.

ReaganNoted.

Rush LindellBut here's the part that should worry Republicans more. There is an open seat, the 35th district down near San Antonio.

ReaganOpen meaning no incumbent.

Rush LindellNo incumbent, and Cook flags it as one that could turn competitive, too.

ReaganThat's the tell for me, an incumbent losing ground. Fine, maybe it's personal. An open seat drawn on paper to be safe suddenly in play.

Rush LindellThat's a map problem, not a candidate problem.

ReaganExactly.

Rush LindellIt's a strange kind of sell, though. You spend a whole legislative session redrawing lines to protect yourself, and the thing you didn't redraw for was public opinion actually moving underneath the new lines.

ReaganMaps can't fix that. Maps just tell you where the fight happens, not who wins it.

Rush LindellYou draw five new seats to pad the majority, and instead you've got two returning members sweating and an open seat nobody expected to sweat at all.

ReaganWhich tracks with everything else we've walked through today.

Rush LindellThe Senate race, the governor's race, now the House map. Three different levels of the ballot, three different signs pointing the same way.

ReaganSo the redistricting gamble might hand Democrats seats Republicans thought they'd engineered away.

Rush LindellThat's the irony. You redraw the state to grow your majority, and the shift underneath the map grows faster than the lines can protect you.

ReaganWhich is not a small thing to say about a state Republicans have run for 30 years.

Rush LindellNo, it's not.

ReaganOkay, so House seats slipping, statewide races tightening. Is Texas just an outlier, or is this actually part of something bigger?

Rush LindellFunny ask, because it's not just Texas. Look what just happened up in New Hampshire.

ReaganNew Hampshire. Newsweek reported this week that Chris Pappas just reversed the polling trend in that Senate race. He was slipping. Now he's not.

Rush LindellWait, slipping toward the Republican and now climbing back?

ReaganThat's the shape of it. Less than six weeks out from Election Day, and the line just bent the other direction.

Rush LindellSo it's not one poll in one state. It's Texas. It's New Hampshire.

ReaganAnd you're about to say map, so I'll say it for you. It's starting to look like a map story.

Rush LindellFine, you said it first. Look, I called Texas GOP-favored last week, flat out, no hedge in it.

ReaganYou did.

Rush LindellAnd I was wrong. Not technically imprecise, wrong. Reagan, I want that on the record before we hand this thing off.

ReaganConsider it recorded.

Rush LindellGood, because early voters in Texas start showing up soon, and whatever's happening in these polls, it's not staying theoretical much longer.

ReaganRight. This isn't a debate club exercise anymore. Ballots get cast.

Rush LindellAnd once they're cast, the polling arguments stop mattering, and the actual count starts.

ReaganWhich is why New Hampshire matters here, too. It tells you this isn't some Texas-specific weirdness. Something's moving under multiple races at once.

Rush LindellTwo states, same direction, same short window before voters lock it in.

ReaganI'll say this for the record, too. I didn't see New Hampshire coming this fast either.

Rush LindellNobody did. That's kind of the point of the whole show tonight.

ReaganSo where does that leave us? Texas toss-up, governor sliding, House seats shaky, and now New Hampshire moving the same week?

Rush LindellIt leaves us needing to actually sit with that instead of waving it off.

ReaganSo what's the actual takeaway for someone listening tonight who's trying to figure out whether their vote matters more than they thought?

Rush LindellThat the outcome isn't decided yet, not in Texas, not in New Hampshire, and races that looked locked six weeks ago clearly aren't. That should change how seriously people take the next few weeks, not just how seriously we take our own predictions.

ReaganWhich I think is your job, not mine.

Rush LindellOh, I—

ReaganSo let's be honest about what happened this week. That toss-up rating wasn't hype from us trying to gin up drama. Cook earned it. The pollsters earned it. And we owe you an honest correction instead of a victory lap.

Rush LindellYeah. Yeah, I know.

ReaganCried about it for the last 10 minutes.

Rush LindellI'm chewing. You want a bird metaphor? I'll give you a bird metaphor. I ordered the crow medium rare, and, uh, it showed up well done, and I'm still eating it.

ReaganThere it is.

Rush LindellFeathers and all, folks. That's the meal tonight.

ReaganIf tonight's plate did anything for you, go hit subscribe and leave us five stars. It actually helps people find the show.

Rush LindellIt does. Ratings matter to us the way ratings apparently mattered to Ken Paxton about six months ago.

ReaganDon't.

Rush LindellTomorrow, we're pulling up the map early voting state by state, and we're calling our shots before the votes come in. This time-

ReaganWith a little more humility

Rush Lindell... with a lot more humility. Good night, everybody.