Tuesday: Silver's Wipeout Call vs. Cook's Cold Feet

Rush LindellOh, they thought they were safe. They thought the grading only happens to Jerome Powell.

ReaganWho's on trial this week, Rush?

Rush LindellPollsters, modelers, the whole handicapping industry.

ReaganBold target.

Rush LindellBold but overdue. These guys have graded everybody else's homework for years.

ReaganTurnabout's fair play.

Rush LindellYou're listening to Rush Limbaugh and Reagan, and tonight we put the forecasters in the chair instead of the Fed.

ReaganA first.

Rush LindellA necessary first, 'cause I- the- Democrats only need four flips to take the Senate back. Four.

ReaganThat's the number everyone's been repeating all cycle.

Rush LindellFour seats. That's it. Not a landslide number, just enough to flip the gavel.

ReaganAnd every one of those four has to come from somewhere specific, not just wishful thinking.

Rush LindellAnd Nate Silver just launched a brand-new model that says the old guard Cook Crystal Ball is sleepwalking through a wipeout.

ReaganSleepwalking is a strong word.

Rush LindellI'm being generous.

ReaganSure you are.

Rush LindellSemantics aside, the stakes are real. Control of the Senate hangs on whether he's right.

ReaganNo pressure on a brand-new model then.

Rush LindellHere's a game tonight. We're not grading Congress. We're not grading the Fed. We're grading Silver's model against the consensus everyone else is using.

ReaganAgainst Cook specifically.

Rush LindellAgainst Cook specifically.

ReaganHmm.

Rush LindellDoes the new math hold up, or is it a guy with a spreadsheet yelling louder than everybody else?

ReaganI have thoughts.

Rush LindellSave 'em.

ReaganRude.

Rush LindellWe've also got our running GOP crack-up thesis in play. Does Silver's data back us up or blow up in our faces?

ReaganSuspenseful.

Rush LindellIt's why you tune in.

ReaganJust don't grade yourself easier than you grade Silver.

Rush LindellNever. Same rules every single time. Receipts or it didn't happen.

ReaganBumpers rolling, Rush.

Rush LindellThen let's go see what this FLIPR model actually says. All right, the bumpers done ringing, so what's actually inside this thing? Silver Bulletin just rolled out a brand-new midterm tracker, and he's calling it FLIPR.

ReaganFLIPR. Of course it has a cute acronym.

Rush LindellIt's Nate Silver. Everything's got a cute acronym. FLIPR tracks Senate, House, every race, updated constantly.

ReaganOkay, so what's the number?

Rush LindellSixty-three to sixty-nine percent Democrats take the Senate. His Deluxe version, fancier inputs, lands at 65.

ReaganThat's not some fringe number. Prediction markets are sitting around 61.

Rush LindellRight, so Silver's basically in the same neighborhood as the gamblers.

ReaganSure, but neighborhoods have a lot of houses in them.

Rush LindellFair enough, but landing in the same neighborhood as the betting markets is still worth noting. It means this isn't some outlier number cooked up in a vacuum.

ReaganSure. When three separate ways of measuring public opinion agree, that's harder to wave off than one poll.

Rush LindellFair. Here's where it gets spicy, though. Cook Political Report still has seven races parked in the toss-up column.

ReaganSeven.

Rush LindellSeven, and New Hampshire's one of them, sitting there labeled a coin flip.

ReaganAnd Silver disagrees.

Rush LindellSilver says Democrats are heavy favorites there. Not close. Heavy.

ReaganWhat's the practical difference between toss-up and heavy favorite for somebody trying to actually plan around this race?

Rush LindellOne says flip a coin. The other says the outcome's basically decided, and everybody should stop pretending otherwise.

ReaganHold on. Heavy favorite from one model against professionals who've been calling races for decades.

Rush LindellThat's the claim.

ReaganThat's a lot of confidence for a model that just launched.

Rush LindellThat's what makes it fun to watch.

ReaganIt's fun until it's wrong. Is this Silver's math outrunning the handicappers, or is it one guy's algorithm getting ahead of itself?

Rush LindellCould be both.

ReaganCould absolutely be both.

Rush LindellAnd look, disagreement between forecasters isn't scandalous on its own. It happens every cycle.

ReaganSure, but usually the gap's a few points, not the difference between a coin flip and a lock.

Rush LindellBut he's not just throwing a number out there and walking off. He's got a reason for going this hard.

ReaganWho's actually got the receipts here?

Rush LindellExactly. Rewind with me, because Silver's whole case leans on what history says happens to a president's party at midterm, and that's where he thinks Cook's being too cautious. Okay, so why does Silver think Cook's being soft here? What's the actual argument?

ReaganHe goes back to the history books. Silver argues that when a sitting president is this unpopular, the incumbent's party doesn't just lose ground. It gets hammered, and Cook's caution doesn't match that pattern.

Rush LindellThank you. Somebody finally said it with numbers instead of vibes.

ReaganIt's a pattern, not a guarantee.

Rush LindellOh, don't do that to me already. Let me have my moment.

ReaganFine. Have your moment.

Rush LindellThis is exactly the meltdown I've been telling you about for weeks, the wheels coming off, the party eating itself, and now a guy with a spreadsheet is backing me up with actual midterm history.

ReaganCareful. History rhymes. It doesn't repeat.

Rush LindellIt rhymes hard enough for me.

ReaganEvery unpopular president in that history had different circumstances, different scandals, different economies, different candidates on the ballot.

Rush LindellSure. Sure.

ReaganSo when a model says this pattern always shows up, I wanna know how many times it actually didn't.

Rush LindellYou're the buzzkill in the room tonight, you know that?

ReaganSomebody has to be.

Rush LindellFair.

ReaganI'm not saying Silver's wrong. I'm saying a trend across past midterms tells you what usually happens. It doesn't tell you what happens in November.

Rush LindellNoted, filed. We'll drag it back out later when it's grading time.

ReaganGood, 'cause I plan to.

Rush LindellI bet you do.

ReaganSeriously, though, promise me we revisit this the second real results start coming in.

Rush LindellCross my heart.

ReaganOkay.

Rush LindellBut right now I'm enjoying the fact that the numbers guy and my gut are pointing the same direction.

ReaganEnjoy it while it lasts.

Rush LindellOh, I intend to. Now, Senate's ugly enough with the math we've already been through

ReaganWait till you see the House.

Rush LindellDon't tease me.

ReaganI'm not teasing. I'm warning you. If the Senate numbers made your eyebrows go up, the seat count over there is going to make you fall out of your chair.

Rush LindellNow you have to tell me. Okay, House side. The Argument teamed up with Split Ticket and ran their own model.

ReaganAnd?

Rush Lindell11%. That's the chance Republicans keep the House according to that model.

Reagan11?

Rush Lindell11. Median call is Democrats up 18 seats.

Reagan18 seats is a real majority, not a nail-biter.

Rush LindellRight. That's not a squeaker. That's a redecorating job.

ReaganOkay, but who else is saying that?

Rush LindellNobody. That's the fun part. Inside Elections has Democrats up 2 to 10.

ReaganThat's a much wider band.

Rush LindellWide enough that Democrats up 2 and Democrats up 10 are basically two different elections.

ReaganWhich tells you how much wiggle room these forecasters build in when they're not sure.

Rush LindellAnd Cook, the outfit we've been leaning on all night, Cook actually has Republicans ahead, 208 to 206.

ReaganWait, wait. Ahead? As in Republicans keep it?

Rush LindellAs in Republicans keep it, per Cook's own seat count.

ReaganSo one model says Democrats coast to an 18-seat majority, and the House Handicapper says Republicans are still up two seats.

Rush LindellAnd Silver's own number is bigger than The Argument's. He's got Democrats at 234 seats.

Reagan234.

Rush Lindell234. That's not incremental, Reagan. That's a landslide number.

ReaganFour outfits, four different maps.

Rush LindellThis is what I'm calling the receipts round of the whole bit tonight. Three professional shops staring at the same 50 states, same candidates, same polling.

ReaganAnd landing nowhere near each other.

Rush Lindell18-seat Democratic wave on one end, Republican plus two on the other. That's not noise. That's a canyon.

ReaganIt could just mean the House is genuinely close and small assumptions swing it hard.

Rush LindellCould be, or it could mean somebody's badly wrong.

ReaganSomebody's always badly wrong in a forecast rush. The question is who and by how much.

Rush LindellFair.

ReaganAnd that's really the tell here. Three professional shops, same public data, wildly different assumptions about turnout and swing voters baked in.

Rush LindellWhich is a nice way of saying nobody actually knows.

ReaganThe House numbers are a mess to sort through, honestly. Too many moving parts to grade cleanly tonight.

Rush LindellWhich is exactly why I keep coming back to the Senate.

ReaganBecause it's simpler.

Rush LindellFour seats, one number, one threshold. That's the whole segment right there.

ReaganAt least with the Senate, we're arguing about one number instead of four different maps, which honestly makes it easier to actually grade.

Rush LindellExactly. Less to referee, more to actually resolve.

ReaganSo let's go check it against what's actually happening on the ground.

Rush LindellNew Hampshire is about to tell us who's kidding who. Okay, so we've got the history angle. We've got the House chaos. Where does the model actually land on the Senate threshold Democrats need to clear?

ReaganIt moved on him. Newsweek reported the FiveThirtyEight forecast jumped 8 points on Senate control between September 6th and the 14th.

Rush Lindell8 points in 8 days.

Reagan8 days, and now it's calling for a four-seat Democratic gain against a four-seat Republican loss.

Rush LindellThat's not a tweak, Reagan. That's a, a redrawing.

ReaganSilver's team says the engine behind it is Texas, Ohio, Michigan trending better for Democrats, plus an adjusted generic ballot that's now giving Democrats an 8-point national edge.

Rush LindellTwo separate 8-point numbers landing in the same update. Uh, that's... Uh, actually, hold on. Before I lose the thread, I gotta tell you about something.

ReaganGo ahead.

Rush LindellMy friends at Lear Capital, America's precious metals leader since 1997, they're doing something I've genuinely never seen. They're selling the one-ounce silver American Eagle below spot price.

ReaganBelow spot. Not at spot, below it?

Rush LindellBelow what silver's actually trading for right now, and they're covering the shipping and the taxes on top of that.

ReaganPriced below spot. They're eating a loss just to get the coin in your hands.

Rush LindellLimit one per person, new customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear. This is a 24-hour offer, full stop.

ReaganRemember, spot price doesn't even include what it costs to mint the coin, ship it, cover dealer overhead. Buying at spot is already a deal.

Rush LindellBuying below spot almost never happens, and this isn't some coin nobody's heard of. The Silver American Eagle is one of the most recognizable, most sought-after coins in the world.

ReaganBacked by the US government for weight and purity, one ounce of .999 fine silver, IRA eligible, something you can actually hold in your hand.

Rush LindellGo to www.rushcoinoffer.com right now, 24 hours. Then the page goes dark, and it's gone.

Reaganwww.rushcoinoffer.com right now, 24 hours. Then the page goes dark, and it's gone. www.rushcoinoffer.

Rush LindellOkay, so here's the part where the plot actually twists.

ReaganOn September 15th, Cook Political Report moved New Hampshire off lean Democratic.

Rush LindellWait, moved it where?

ReaganToss-up. Pappas versus Sununu, the open seat, and Cook just made it harder for Democrats, not easier.

Rush LindellHold on. Silver is calling that race a lock. A lock!

ReaganRight. And the shop that actually rates it for a living just downgraded it the other way.

Rush LindellThat's not a rounding error. That's two people looking at the same house, and one says it's sold, and the other says, "Put a new roof on it first."

ReaganSure, if you wanna make it about roofs.

Rush LindellI'm not saying Cook's wrong. I'm saying it's a weird week to be wrong in that particular direction, right when Silver's most confident.

ReaganWeird or just honest about how close it actually looks on the ground there?

Rush LindellI wanna make it about the fact that everybody was supposed to be agreeing with Nate right now.

ReaganAnd Cook's move put New Hampshire in with Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, the whole battleground list, not the settled list.

Rush LindellThat's nine other states basically saying, "We're still watching this one."

ReaganAnd none of those nine are seats anybody's calling settled either way right now, not yet anyway.

Rush LindellSo the w- the wipeout story needs the hard cases to break clean, not just the easy ones.

ReaganWhich is the opposite of a wipeout consensus forming.

Rush LindellYeah, no, I hear you.

ReaganThis is my whole issue with just trusting the model and moving on. The industry isn't converging behind Silver's blowout read.

Rush LindellIt's fracturing.

ReaganIt's fracturing on the exact race he's most confident about.

Rush LindellCool, cool, cool. Love that for us.

ReaganGenuinely, though, doesn't this undercut the whole the pros are asleep framing a little?

Rush LindellA little. It means at least one of them is wide awake and getting more careful and saying so out loud.

ReaganI'm not saying Silver's wrong.

Rush LindellBut?

ReaganBut when the professional handicapper gets more cautious the same week the model gets more bullish, you don't get to just pick the version you like better.

Rush LindellSo, what, we split the difference and call it a day?

ReaganNo. We stop treating this as one headline number.

Rush LindellWhich honestly is a more honest way to cover this than chasing one big, scary percentage.

ReaganIt's slower. It's also the only way to actually get it right.

Rush Lindell'Cause it's not a national mood. It's 40-some individual fights.

ReaganEvery one of which gets decided seat by seat, county by county, on its own terms.

Rush LindellAll right. All right, I like where this is going.

ReaganThen let's actually go there. Let's look at the map.

Rush LindellGrab the map, Reagan, because this is where the theory meets the dirt.

ReaganBallotpedia lays out exactly which seats are actually in play, and it's not evenly split.

Rush LindellGive me the shocker first.

ReaganMichigan. It's the only Democratic-held seat sitting in a state Trump carried in 2024.

Rush LindellOne seat. That's it?

ReaganThat's it. Everything else Democrats hold, they're defending on friendly or neutral ground.

Rush LindellAnd the flip side?

ReaganMaine is the only Republican-held seat sitting in a state Harris won. New Hampshire is Democratic-held, but Harris only won it by a hair.

Rush LindellSo Susan Collins is playing defense on hostile turf, and the Democrats' one soft spot is Michigan. Fine. Now hit me with the real number.

ReaganSeven. Seven Republican-held seats sit in states Trump won last year: Alaska, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Rush LindellSeven. Okay, here's my bit, and I've been saving it.

ReaganOh, no.

Rush LindellEvery one of those seven states is a door, a door with the letters G-O-P painted on it, and every single door has to stay locked all night for Republicans to survive.

ReaganThe doors.

Rush LindellThe doors. You leave one cracked open in Texas, one cracked open in Ohio, that's how a chamber gets lost. Seven doors, zero slip-ups.

ReaganExcept holding seven doors and flipping a handful aren't the same job. Defense is easier than offense historically.

Rush LindellIs it, though? Not when the guy behind six of those doors is polling underwater.

ReaganSure, but Democrats still have to actually win the seats, not just watch Republicans sweat.

Rush LindellYou're no fun.

ReaganI'm accurate. That's a different show.

Rush LindellFair. But look at what we've got: one soft Democratic seat, one soft Republican seat, and seven doors under Trump's shadow. That's the whole battlefield.

ReaganWhich is exactly why the industry can't agree. They're staring at the same seven doors and reaching different conclusions about how flimsy the locks are.

Rush LindellRight. And that's not a map problem. That's a judgment problem.

ReaganSo we stop describing the map and start scoring the people reading it.

Rush LindellAll right, time to actually grade this thing the way we grade everybody else. All right, scorecards out. Silver's model versus Cook's approach. Who's actually reading this map right?

ReaganCook grades race by race. Silver grades the whole environment and lets the races follow.

Rush LindellAnd that's exactly the fight right there.

ReaganThe Silver bulletin has been sitting well above a coin flip on the Senate all month.

Rush LindellComfortably above it.

ReaganMeanwhile, Cook just went the other direction on New Hampshire. Cautious, not confident.

Rush LindellTwo outfits looking at the same 50 states and walking away with opposite instincts.

ReaganRight. One's leaning on history and a national number. The other's knocking on doors in Nashua.

Rush LindellI'll take the guy with the spreadsheet.

ReaganOf course you will.

Rush LindellI'm not being flip about it. The spreadsheet at least shows its work, race by race, state by state.

ReaganSo does Cook, though. They just weigh local factors the aggregate models can't see every single time.

Rush LindellNo, seriously, if the environment's this bad for Republicans nationally, why is Cook still hedging on individual races?

ReaganBecause a spreadsheet doesn't know if Pappas has a bad debate in October. A local shop might.

Rush LindellFair, but that's the whole argument for taking Silver's warning seriously. He's saying, "Don't wait for the debate. Look at the pattern now."

ReaganI'll grade the warning as legitimate. The word wipeout isn't earned yet.

Rush LindellOoh, tough grader.

ReaganToughest grader on the show, and I'm grading myself too if I'm wrong.

Rush LindellFair enough. I'll hold you to it just like I hold Silver to it.

ReaganThe model gives you probabilities. November 3rd gives you a Senate.

Rush LindellVery-

ReaganI mean it. Silver's data deserves real weight, the history, the national number, all of it, but it's a forecast, not a result, and Cook moving in the opposite direction on New Hampshire alone tells you the professionals aren't ready to call this thing.

Rush LindellSo the grade is incomplete.

ReaganThe grade is watch the toss-ups, not the percentages.

Rush LindellWatch the toss-ups, fine, but I reserve the right to say I told you so.

ReaganYou always reserve that right, Rush. Doesn't mean you've earned it yet.

Speaker 3I still think the crack-up thesis is standing tall tonight.

ReaganStanding, sure. Confirmed? Ask me after the returns.

Speaker 3Fair enough. That's the scorecard.

ReaganNow go set your alarm for November third.

Speaker 3Because we've got a door to shut on this one soon. All right, before we let you go, remember the seven doors bit and the four flips Democrats actually need.

ReaganThe one you turned into a whole bit.

Speaker 3A bit that's earned its stripes. And I'm not retiring it. Every time Silver updates that model, every time Cook moves a rating, we're grabbing that map again.

ReaganSo this is a recurring segment now?

Speaker 3It's a running feature. Numbers move, we come back, we check the locks.

ReaganJust be honest about it when the doors don't hold the way you think they will.

Speaker 3Every time. That's the whole point of grading somebody else's homework. You've got to grade your own too.

ReaganFair enough. My grade stands. Silver's making a real argument, but the industry hasn't signed off on it yet.

Speaker 3Not yet. Ask me again in three weeks.

ReaganThree weeks. I'm marking the calendar right now.

Speaker 3Do it, and bring popcorn.

ReaganFor everyone listening, if you liked tonight's scorecard, subscribe to the show, leave us five stars, and tell a friend who argues politics at dinner.

Speaker 3That's every friend.

ReaganNew episodes every weekday.

Speaker 3And no algorithm, no toss-up rating, none of it settles anything until voters actually show up.

ReaganNovember third settles it, not a spreadsheet. Circle it. We'll see you tomorrow.