Thursday: Seven Toss-Ups, NH's Shocking Flip

Rush LindellOh, we have been promising this for weeks, Reagan. Weeks.

ReaganWe have.

Rush LindellTonight, the scorecard. Every single one of the seven seats that decides if the GOP keeps that 53 to 47 majority.

ReaganOr loses it.

Rush LindellThank you, Miss Sunshine. You're listening to Rush Lindell and Reagan, and tonight we're grading our own predictions before the voters get to grade us.

ReaganUgh, scary thought.

Rush LindellSeven seats, one number, 53 to 47. Lose four of them and that majority's gone.

ReaganWhich is exactly why grading ourselves before the voters do feels almost responsible, for once.

Rush LindellThere's a name flip coming in this show that is gonna make your jaw hit the floor. I'm not saying which one yet.

ReaganTease.

Rush LindellAbsolutely. But first, a word from the fine people at Lear Capital, because even a majority needs a hedge.

ReaganSmooth.

Rush LindellI try. Reagan, tell the good people the rules of tonight's game before I steal all the fun.

ReaganGladly.

Rush LindellOkay, ground rules first, because Reagan's about to make me put something in writing.

ReaganRanking, not vibes. Safest holds at the top, most likely to slip at the bottom.

Rush LindellAnd then we each bet figuratively on which one flips first.

ReaganFiguratively. Rush still owes me lunch from the last one.

Rush LindellThat bet doesn't count. The vote hadn't even happened yet.

ReaganIt counts.

Rush LindellFine. Fine. Moving on.

ReaganSo here's the stakes, stripped down. Hold the seats, keep the gavel. Lose enough, and it's gone.

Rush LindellAnd nobody's pretending this cycle is a coin flip in Republicans' favor anymore, is it?

ReaganNo. Democrats aren't even hiding where they're knocking. Axios reported back in August that Democrats see Michigan, Ohio, and Maine as their clearest path to flipping the chamber.

Rush LindellWait, Maine too? I thought that one was basically written off as blue already.

ReaganNobody's writing anything off tonight. That's the entire point of doing this the hard way.

Rush LindellOhio's the one that gets me every time. Trump carried it. Every statewide office is Republican, and it's still sitting on their target board.

ReaganBecause red on paper doesn't mean safe in practice. That's the whole reason we're doing this exercise, instead of just trusting the color on the map.

Rush LindellRight. Color on a map doesn't win you a seat in the Senate.

ReaganExactly.

Rush LindellSo what's the professional mood otherwise? Are the handicappers sweating?

ReaganA little. The Almanac of American Politics put out its update just this week, and even while barely touching most of the individual ratings, it said Democrats have reason for optimism.

Rush LindellReason for optimism. That's such a polite way of saying they smell blood.

ReaganPretty much, yeah.

Rush LindellI don't love polite. I want somebody to just say Republicans are in trouble here and mean it.

ReaganThey will, eventually. Handicappers wait for one more data point before they commit ink.

Rush LindellOne more data point. That's very diplomatic of them.

ReaganIt's their job to be boring until the numbers force them not to be.

Rush LindellFair enough. All right, ranking rules. Walk me through the bet part again, 'cause I want it on record before we start.

ReaganEach of us picks the seat we think flips first. Loser buys, and we revisit it after the results come in. Same as always.

Rush LindellI've got a bad feeling about how confident I'm gonna sound in 20 minutes.

ReaganGood. I'm recording it.

Rush LindellOkay. Where do we start? Top of the drama or bottom?

ReaganBottom. The two nobody's losing sleep over, yet.

Rush LindellAlaska and Iowa.

ReaganAlaska and Iowa. Let's see if they stay that boring.

Rush LindellAlaska, first one up on the board.

ReaganToss-up seat number one.

Rush LindellAnd I gotta say, Reagan, nobody's writing about Alaska. I went looking. It's like the state fell off a cliff into a news vacuum.

ReaganThere's just less polling up there, less money in the race so far.

Rush LindellSo my new rule is the less anybody talks about a race, the more Alaska I'm calling it. From now on, radio silence on any seat means it's gone full Alaska.

ReaganThat's gonna be a stretch when we hit Ohio.

Rush LindellWe'll see.

ReaganIowa's a different story. Cook Political Report actually moved that one from lean Republican to toss-up in late August.

Rush LindellWait, Iowa? That's supposed to be a lock.

ReaganNot anymore, according to Axios' rundown of that shift.

Rush LindellWhat changed?

ReaganForbes had a polling roundup right around the same time, showing Hinson only up on Turek by single digits.

Rush LindellSingle digits, in Iowa.

ReaganOkay, that's a gut punch. Iowa's supposed to be the seat you don't even think about. You don't get a toss-up label for no reason.

Rush LindellAnd Iowa's not exactly a state that flips on a whim. This is a place that usually rewards incumbency.

ReaganWhich is exactly why a single-digit lead there reads louder than it would somewhere already competitive.

Rush LindellSo where is Hinson stumbling? Is this a candidate problem or a map problem?

ReaganThe reporting doesn't say, just that the race tightened enough for Cook to reclassify it.

Rush LindellFine, fine. I'll take it as a warning shot.

ReaganA warning shot for Republicans, sure.

Rush LindellFeels like it's not really about Hinson specifically, more like the whole national mood leaking into a race that used to run on autopilot.

ReaganThat's probably closer to it than any single misstep. Toss-up labels usually track the environment more than the candidate.

Rush LindellSo where do these two land? Alaska I'm calling a hold, mostly because nobody's bothered to challenge it in print.

ReaganConvenient standard.

Rush LindellIt's a strong standard. Iowa, though, Iowa, I'm sliding down the board. Single digits is not comfortable.

ReaganAgreed. Iowa moves closer to the danger zone than Alaska does.

Rush LindellTwo down.

ReaganFive to go.

Rush LindellAnd we are leaving the quiet end of the map now.

ReaganOhio's next.

Rush LindellOhio, and then Texas, where Trump just blew up the whole race by jumping into a primary fight.

ReaganPaxton.

Rush LindellPaxton. Oh, we got a lot to say about that one.

ReaganRedder states, same seven-race board.

Rush LindellLet's go. Ohio next. Axios calls it a GOP favored toss-up, and here's why. Trump won it. Every statewide office is Republican.

ReaganSo on paper, it should be the easiest hold on this list.

Rush LindellShould be. Toss-up still means toss-up.

ReaganFair.

Rush LindellTrump carried it, but a single toss-up label means somebody out there sees an opening.

ReaganSomebody usually does this cycle.

Rush LindellGrade, lean hold. Not the safest, but I'm not losing sleep over Ohio.

ReaganTexas is a different animal, and we need to fix something first. The brief keeps saying Cornyn like he's still the nominee.

Rush LindellOh, Reagan, that ship sailed.

ReaganNBC News confirmed it. Ken Paxton beat Senator John Cornyn in the primary runoff after Trump endorsed him. Cornyn's done. Paxton's the nominee now.

Rush LindellAgainst Talarico, James Talarico.

ReaganRight. And Axios says Cook moved Texas from Lean Republican to Toss-up that same late August wave.

Rush LindellWait, same week as Iowa?

ReaganSame report, yeah.

Rush LindellYep. Now, two seats reclassified in one Axios piece, and everybody's still arguing about Ohio.

ReaganHere's the part that actually worries Republicans, though. Cook's own Texas page says national Republicans will likely spend around two hundred and fifty million dollars-

Rush LindellQuarter of a billion

Reagan... courting Talarico as too far left for the state.

Rush LindellThat's not a campaign, that's a rescue mission.

ReaganThey're not spending that because Paxton's a strong candidate. They're spending it because he's a liability they can't replace.

Rush LindellGrade, shakier than it looks.

ReaganAgreed.

Rush LindellThat's the kind of spending you do when you're scared, not when you're confident.

ReaganConfident campaigns don't need a quarter billion dollar shield.

Rush LindellYou know what else costs less than it should right now? Silver.

ReaganSmooth.

Rush LindellMy friends at Lear Capital are doing something I've genuinely never seen. They're selling a one ounce silver American Eagle below spot price, below what silver's actually trading for.

ReaganAnd they're covering the shipping and the taxes on top of that.

Rush LindellSpot price doesn't even include what it costs to mint the coin or ship it. Buying at spot is already a good deal. Buying below spot almost never happens.

ReaganLimit one per person, new customers only. Free shipping, fully insured by Lear.

Rush LindellThis is a twenty-four-hour offer. It's the silver American Eagle, backed by the US government for weight and purity. One ounce of .999 fine silver. I- Okay, New Hampshire. Sit down, Reagan, because I need you sitting down for this one.

ReaganI'm sitting.

Rush LindellThe Washington Post reported that Cook Political Report just moved New Hampshire's Senate race from Lean Democratic all the way to Toss-Up.

ReaganWait, wait, wait. New Hampshire?

Rush LindellNew Hampshire.

ReaganThat's not a swing state. That's a state Democrats haven't lost a Senate race in since forever.

Rush LindellI know.

ReaganWho's even running?

Rush LindellJohn Sununu for us, Chris Pappas for them. Pappas was supposed to walk this. Sitting congressman, name recognition, blue trending state, the whole resume.

ReaganSo what happened?

Rush LindellCook happened.

ReaganThat's not an answer.

Rush LindellIt's the only one they gave us.

ReaganFair.

Rush LindellBut it's not just Cook noticing. Newsweek framed this whole shift around a bigger pattern. Midterms test the party in power, and right now, that's Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers.

ReaganRight. So if the historical pattern usually punishes the majority.

Rush LindellPolishing New Hampshire is still moving our way anyway.

ReaganThat's the anomaly worth asking about.

Rush LindellExactly.

ReaganBut one race isn't a trend, Rush. Is Cook overcorrecting off a single poll, or is this an actual signal?

Rush LindellLook at the resume gap alone. Pappas has run statewide before. Sununu's coming off legislative fights, not a governor's mansion this time. On paper, that favors Pappas even more, which is exactly why this reclassification stinks.

ReaganWhich makes the Toss-up label even harder to wave away. If the favorite with the better resume is suddenly even money, something in the electorate shifted, not just the paperwork.

Rush LindellMaybe it's both. One poll wobble catching something real underneath it.

ReaganThat's still a theory, not a fact. I want to see it show up in a second rating change before I call it real.

Rush LindellHere's the other piece. A separate Newsweek report said Cook shifted three races total in that update, and two GOP-held seats moved toward Democrats in the same batch.

ReaganSo it's not like Cook's out here handing Republicans a parade. They moved seats against you, too.

Rush LindellSure, but New Hampshire's the one that breaks the model. If a blue trending state with a favored Democrat is suddenly a coin flip.

ReaganThen every other assumption on this board gets a second look.

Rush LindellThat's the whole board flipping over right there.

ReaganI'll grant you it's the most interesting data point Tonight. I'm not ready to call it a trend off one rating change.

Rush LindellFair, but Scoreboards don't wait for consensus. Cook moved first, and we're the ones reacting.

ReaganSomeone has to move first. That doesn't make them right, it makes them early.

Rush LindellInteresting is enough for me. This scrambles the order we had going into this segment.

ReaganSo where does it land? Above Iowa? Below Ohio?

Rush LindellWe'll get there, but Michigan's got its own Open Seat mess, and Maine's been sliding quietly this whole time.

ReaganQuiet's about to end.

Rush LindellSo the New Hampshire earthquake happens, and I want to know, is there other movement, or was that a one-off?

ReaganMichigan moved. Look at the numbers.

Rush LindellGo.

ReaganThe Washington Post/Schar School poll has Abdul El-Sayed up forty-eight percent over Mike Rogers in that Open Seat Peters is leaving behind.

Rush LindellForty-eight. That's razor thin.

ReaganIt's an edge, not a lead you'd bet the house on.

Rush LindellI'll bet the house on plenty less than that.

ReaganThe same poll found fifty-three percent of Michigan likely voters want Democrats running the Senate, full stop.

Rush LindellWait, more than half the state just wants the other team in charge of the chamber? Regardless of who's on the ballot.

ReaganThat's what the number says.

Rush LindellThat's not a candidate problem for Rogers, that's an environment problem.

ReaganAn environment problem is worse for Republicans, not better. You can swap a candidate, you can't swap the mood of the electorate.

Rush LindellSo even a stronger Rogers doesn't fix this?

ReaganAnd it's not new. Forbes had El-Sayed up by four points in a late August roundup before this poll even landed.

Rush LindellSo two separate polls, two separate weeks, same direction.

ReaganSame direction, different margins. Forty-eight points, then a 48% edge. Consistent, not identical.

Rush LindellFine. Michigan's trending the wrong way for us. I'll grade it dicey. Where's Maine in all this?

ReaganPeter, Axios grouped Maine with Michigan and Ohio back in August as one of the clearest paths Democrats have to flip the majority.

Rush LindellGrouped it, but no fresh poll, no reclassification, nothing like this in a new poll.

ReaganCorrect. No new number to hang on it this week. Just a standing assumption that it's soft for us.

Rush LindellMaine doesn't make noise, it just erodes.

ReaganThat's fair. Nobody's writing panic pieces about Maine. It's just sitting there, quietly not great.

Rush LindellQuiet erosion is still erosion, though.

ReaganWhich is exactly why we're not skipping it, even without a headline number.

Rush LindellAll right, so Michigan gets graded dicey on real numbers. Maine gets graded dicey on vibes and an Axios list.

ReaganTwo different kinds of trouble. One's measured, one's assumed.

Rush LindellEither way, that's the whole map now. Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, New Hampshire, Michigan, Maine.

ReaganSeven seats, seven grades in hand.

Rush LindellWhich means it's time to stop talking about them one at a time and put them in actual order.

ReaganSafest to shakiest.

Rush LindellAnd somebody's putting money on which one goes first.

ReaganSomebody being you.

Rush LindellObviously me. Okay, seven seats, seven grades in hand. Time to stack the actual order.

ReaganSafest to shakiest.

Rush LindellOhio and Alaska anchor the top for me. Quiet doesn't mean invincible, but it's the closest thing we've got to sleep easy.

ReaganCareful there.

Rush LindellWhat?

ReaganAlaska's only safe because nobody's covering it. That's not the same as safe. If a pollster finally shows up and moves the needle, we're the two idiots who called it a lock on thin air.

Rush LindellFair. Put an asterisk on it. Provisional hold.

ReaganThat's the honest version. We grade ourselves too, remember?

Rush LindellWe do. Middle tier, Axios lays this out clean. Iowa and Texas got moved the same week, same Cook update, lean Republican to Toss-up, both at once.

ReaganSame breath, two different seats.

Rush LindellSame breath. So they sit together in the ranking. Not top-tier safe, not bottom-tier bleeding.

ReaganMiddle of the board, both bruised the same way.

Rush LindellExactly.

ReaganAnd it matters that they moved in the same report. That's not two separate storylines. That's one wave hitting two states at once.

Rush LindellOne wave, same tier. That's the whole logic of putting them side by side instead of picking a winner between them.

ReaganBottom third has to be Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire.

Rush LindellIn that order?

ReaganMichigan's the worst of the three. The numbers there are the roughest we've seen all show. Maine's quieter, but grouped with it. New Hampshire's the wild card underneath both.

Rush LindellThe wild card that just climbed out of nowhere.

ReaganClimbed into relevance, not out of danger. It's a Toss-up, not a lifeline.

Rush LindellStill, a week ago, Nobodys talking Sununu-Pappas as competitive. Now it's on the board with Michigan and Maine.

ReaganRight below them.

Rush LindellWhich tells you something about how fast this cycle is moving. A seat we barely mentioned two segments ago is now bracketing the Bottom with the two toughest holds on the board.

ReaganThat's the whole point of doing this the hard way instead of trusting last month's assumptions.

Rush LindellBelow them. So here's the full stack, top to Bottom: Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan.

ReaganSay it again slower and I still don't love Alaska at the top.

Rush LindellNoted, filed. We'll revisit if a poll ever actually shows up there.

ReaganThat's the deal.

Rush LindellSeven seats, seven grades, one stack.

ReaganLocked.

Rush LindellWhich means it's time to stop grading and start betting.

ReaganOh, I've been waiting for this part all show.

Rush LindellOkay, wallets out. Well, metaphorical wallets. I'm calling it, New Hampshire flips first.

ReaganOf course you are.

Rush LindellI'm nicknaming it right now. The Live Free or Die flip. Say it with me.

ReaganI will not. You will, eventually. Sununu's got the wind at his back. Pappas is playing defense in his own backyard. That's the flip.

Rush LindellYou're betting on a seat that moved once on one rating change from one outlet.

ReaganOne rating change that scrambled the whole board. You said it yourself.

Rush LindellI said it was noted. I didn't say it was destiny.

ReaganDestiny's a strong word. I like it.

Rush LindellMichigan flips first. The trend line there is cleaner than a single reclassification.

ReaganThe numbers we already went through.

Rush LindellExactly those numbers. And the Almanac's own September rundown barely moved a handful of ratings this cycle, yet the overall shape of the map still leans their direction.

ReaganBarely moved anything and you're still picking it?

Rush LindellSmall changes don't mean the underlying trend stopped.

ReaganWhat?

Rush LindellNothing, I just... That's actually not a bad argument.

ReaganThank you.

Rush LindellDoesn't change my pick, though.

ReaganDidn't think it would.

Rush LindellOkay, but let's stress test this for a second. If New Hampshire flips before Michigan, does that change how you grade Cook's red on the environment, or is that just noise to you?

ReaganIt would tell me Cook caught something the polling hadn't caught yet, which is a point in their favor, not against my pick.

Rush LindellAnd if Michigan flips first?

ReaganThen the trend line held exactly like I said it would, and you owe me that lunch you still haven't paid from last time, with interest.

Rush LindellAll right. Board's set. Rush says New Hampshire, Reagan says Michigan.

ReaganLogged.

Rush LindellWe're gonna hold each other to this on record. No wiggling out in October.

ReaganNo wiggling.

Rush LindellIf I'm wrong, you get to gloat for a full segment.

ReaganOh, I'm, I'm already planning it.

Rush LindellOf course you are. All right. Bets are on the board, scorecards locked, and next time we come back, we start checking who's actually right.

ReaganAnd who owes who an apology.

Rush LindellDon't worry, Reagan. I'll have my nickname ready either way. Okay, quick lightning round before we go. Ohio, Alaska, uh, top of the board, safest holds.

ReaganIowa and Texas tied in the middle.

Rush LindellNew Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, bottom three in that order.

ReaganAnd two bets sitting on the table, one from each of us.

Rush LindellMine's the New England seat. Yours is the Midwest one.

ReaganDifferent states, same instinct. Momentum's moving one direction.

Rush LindellWe'll see who's buying lunch in November.

ReaganI'm not promising anything. The results grade us, not the other way around.

Rush LindellSpoken like someone who thinks she's already right.

ReaganI usually am.

Rush LindellWe say that every cycle, and somehow it's still fun to find out who's actually right.

ReaganThat's the whole show, really. Conviction now, receipts later.

Rush LindellThere it is. Okay, if you like this one, subscribe, leave five stars, and send it to somebody who still thinks this majority is not in play.

ReaganIt is, all seven ways.

Rush LindellTomorrow we go seat by seat on the House side, and trust me, that board's just as messy.

ReaganLooking forward to it.

Rush LindellSame time, same fight. See you then.