U.S.-Iran Deal, AI and Market Chaos, and World Cup Shockers

MayaHey, good morning. Welcome to the Morning Rundown. I'm Maya, here with David, and we've got a packed one today.

DavidYeah, lot moving this morning. Good to be here.

MayaSo, big headline, the U.S. and Iran hammered out a preliminary deal, ceasefire extended, the Strait of Hormuz back open, but then,

DavidHmm.

Mayaalmost immediately, talks got postponed.

DavidRight, and VP Vance publicly went after Israel over the whole thing. That's not nothing. Nothing. There's a lot to break down there, what the deal actually gets us and what it doesn't.

MayaWe'll get into all of that. Then on the market side, Accenture dropped 20% in a single day. Plus, the White House and Anthropic are now talking AI security rules, and the new Fed chair contender Kevin Warsh has some pretty interesting ideas about how monetary policy should actually work.

DavidYeah, let markets lead, which depending on who you ask...

MayaAsk, yeah, we'll get into that.

DavidAnd sports. Mexico's already through to the World Cup knockouts. There's a brutal injury out of the Canada game, and Wyndham Clark is leading the U.S. Open by four shots after day one.

MayaThat Shinnecock round was something. Okay, Middle East first.

Speaker 3So, J.D. Vance cancels a trip to Switzerland and publicly slams Israel in the same week. That's not nothing.

DavidNo, that's a lot. Let me back up a second. The New York Times and NBC News both reported this. The U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal. Ceasefire extended. Strait of Hormuz reopens. Oil sanctions waived.

Speaker 3And then, almost immediately, things got complicated.

DavidRight. Switzerland announced it was postponing a follow-up round of talks. Hawks that were supposed to happen Friday, Vance canceled his trip there.

Speaker 3So like the ink isn't even dry and we're already hitting pause?

DavidBasically, and the reason is Israel. According to the Washington Post, Israel's strikes in Lebanon intensified right around this window. Four Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, and Israel hit back hard, targeting Hezbollah.

Speaker 3Which, I mean, Israel's been watching Iran fund Hezbollah for years. Their concern isn't exactly coming out of nowhere.

DavidNo, it's not, and Vance apparently didn't hold back. The Washington Post reported he slammed Israel's reaction to the deal pretty sharply, which is unusual. That's a tense thing to say out loud about a close ally.

Speaker 3That's wild, right? Like, the administration is pushing this deal hard enough that they're willing to take that friction publicly.

DavidFollow the money. The Strait of Hormuz is why.

Speaker 3Okay, yes, explain that part, because people hear Strait of Hormuz and— First, Strait of Hormuz, and maybe their eyes glaze over a little.

DavidFair. So the Guardian reported, this is a 110-day conflict, and one of the core pieces of the preliminary deal – they're calling it a memorandum of understanding – is re-opening the Strait. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through that narrow strip of water.

Speaker 320 percent.

Speaker 4Mm-hmm.

Speaker 3That goes straight to gas prices.

DavidDirect line: when that Strait gets disrupted, oil traders panic. Prices spike. The spike So the administration reopening it, the U.S. military actually lifted its naval blockade – that's a concrete, immediate economic win they can point to.

Speaker 3And Iran gets sanctions relief on oil exports, so both sides are getting something real.

DavidThat's the incentive structure – both sides needed an off-ramp, and oil was the shared lever.

Speaker 3Okay, but I want to push on the conservative read here for a second, because getting the Strait open and getting sanctions tied to behavior

MayaThe behavior, that's a result. I'm not dismissing that.

DavidNeither am I.

MayaBut Israel's concern isn't just about Lebanon in isolation. It's about Iran's whole regional posture. Hezbollah, the proxies, the broader threat picture. And I don't get the sense that the deal really addresses any of that.

DavidThe IAEA chief said, and Al Jazeera covered the global reaction to this, now the technical work starts on Iran's nuclear program, which sounds like a diplomatic. way of saying we haven't solved the hard stuff yet.

MayaYeah, technical work starts is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

DavidIt really is. Look, the deal gets results on Hormuz and stops the act of fighting. That matters. But critics, and there are real ones with real arguments, are saying this looks a lot like returning to the pre-war status quo without getting structural changes from Tehran.

MayaThe Washington Post actually flagged that. The deal was criticized as a return.

Speaker 3Return to that status quo.

DavidWhich, if you're in Tel Aviv, that's not reassuring.

Speaker 3Not even a little. And I think that tension between Washington wanting a deal that's sellable domestically and Israel needing something that actually changes Iran's behavior, that's not resolved.

DavidProbably not this week.

Speaker 3Probably not this decade, honestly.

DavidDuh, and yet here we are.

Speaker 3So the question I keep coming back to is when big institutions make... make decisions that look good on paper, who actually bears the cost if it falls apart—Iran, Israel, or the person paying at the pump?

DavidHmm, that's a question that doesn't stay in the Middle East for long.

Speaker 3Shifting gears, and honestly this one hits closer to home for a lot of people, let's talk AI, markets and the Fed.

DavidYeah, so three stories that all point to the same thing: the gap between the hype and the reality is starting to show up in places that actually hurt.

MayaStart with Accenture, because David, 20%?

DavidTwenty percent. Shares dropped after they put out a revenue outlook that missed expectations. Politico covered this, but Accenture's numbers came from Yahoo Finance. They're forecasting $17.75 to $18.4 billion in quarterly revenue, and bookings actually declined two percent.

MayaWait, really?

DavidMm-hmm.

MayaBookings are going down? That's the pipeline.

DavidThat's the whole forward signal. And CEO Julie Sweet said, and I'm quoting Business Insider here, that AI transformation will take some time. time. Which fine, that's probably true, but investors heard that and just left.

MayaI mean, come on, you say this will take some time to Wall Street and you're basically handing them the exit button.

DavidRight, and the thing is, Accenture is not some scrappy startup. They're supposed to be the company that helps big enterprises actually implement this stuff. If their bookings are soft, that's a real signal about where corporate AI spending is going.

MayaSo the consultants are saying AI is coming, just not yet. Yeah, that tracks.

DavidMeanwhile, the White House has been in talks with Anthropic, and Politico reported that those conversations Those conversations shifted toward setting actual AI security rules, not just cozy chats about innovation, security standards.

MayaHmm, that's a pretty notable change in posture, right? Like the administration moving from, let's not get in the way, to, okay, let's draw some lines.

DavidYeah, and I'd say it's probably overdue. The question is whether rules that are written by people who understand the technology or people who are just reacting to it.

MayaFair point.

DavidOkay, and then there's Kevin Warsh, tipped as a leading Fed chair contender.

MayaAnd his view of monetary policy is, well, Yahoo Finance covered this, he wants markets to guide the Fed, not the other way around.

DavidWait, so instead of the Fed signaling to markets, markets signal to the Fed?

MayaBasically, he called financial markets probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers, which is a big philosophical shift. Less intervention, tighter discipline.

DavidAnd if you believe the Fed has been too loose for too long, that sounds appealing. Sounds appealing.

MayaFollow the money on that one. Less Fed hand-holding means more market volatility up front, but maybe fewer distortions down the road.

DavidOkay, I need a palate cleanser after all that because we also have a World Cup that's actually happening, a goalkeeper error that will live rent-free in South Korean soccer history forever, and an injury update on Canada's Ismaël Kone that got pretty scary.

MayaYeah, let's go there.

DavidAll right, sports time. And honestly, this World Cup has delivered.

MayaDay four, and we already have our first team through to the knockouts.

DavidMexico! Al Jazeera reported it. Luis Romo's 50th minute goal, a 1-0 win over South Korea, and Mexico tops Group A with a game still to play.

MayaAnd they get to play the knockout round at home on Mexican soil. The crowd at Guadalajara was losing it.

DavidOkay, but we have to talk about the goal, because it wasn't just a goal. The South Korea goalkeeper, Kim Seung-gyu, just dropped it. The Guardian called it a howler. That's the word they used, a howler.

MayaThat's that poor guy.

DavidThat clip is going to live on the internet forever, like forever forever.

MayaAnd what makes it wilder is Mexico has now set up for a potential last 16 match. match at the Azteca. If the bracket holds, that game could be absolutely apocalyptic in the best way.

DavidOkay, I would watch that. I would absolutely watch that.

MayaBut there was a rough moment in the tournament yesterday: Canada beat Qatar six

DavidWow.

Mayato zero, which sounds great, but USA Today reported that Ismail Kone took a tackle in the second half that earned a red card for the Qatar player. Kone went straight to the hospital for surgery.

DavidYeah, that one stings. He's a key player for Canada, one of the co-hosts, and they're writing this wave of home support.

MayaThe Canada players were visibly upset on the pitch. Coaches, too. You could see it was serious immediately.

DavidWishing him a full recovery. That's just... nobody wants to see that, especially at a home tournament.

MayaOkay, Pivot to golf, because Wyndham Clark is doing something special at Shinnecock Hills.

DavidWait, how special?

MayaNBC Sports had him at 6-under through 16 holes. Wyndham's four shot lead before darkness stopped play—four shots!

DavidThat's a runaway at a U.S. Open. Those courses are designed to punish you.

MayaCNN explained the setup: morning fog caused a two-hour delay and Clark had a late afternoon tee time. As the wind died down with the sun, his round just clicked.

DavidSo he basically got better weather than the morning groups.

MayaRight, but CNN was clear: Good golf was still required. His highlight was an eagle on the par five, knocked his approach to three feet.

DavidThree feet from the hole on a par five approach? That's not just good weather, that's just... Good.

MayaHe's the defending U.S. Open champion, too, won in 2023, so this isn't a fluke start from some unknown. He knows how to close one of these.

DavidAnd Rory McIlroy is in early contention, which, I mean, come on, Grand Slam watch is always in the background when Rory's near the top.

MayaScottie Scheffler had a rough one. NBC Sports called it a challenging round, so the world number one is already playing catch-up.

DavidRough day for Scottie, good day for everyone else's bracket. Bracket Shinnecock on a Friday morning? I'm very here for it. All right, that's the rundown for today. Big episode. Iran deal, market swings, World Cup drama.

MayaYeah, and the thread connecting it all? Nothing's as settled as the headlines make it sound. The Iran deal's got real holes. Accenture's bookings drop was the real story behind the stock slide.

DavidAnd Mexico's in the knockouts because of a goalkeeper mistake. Wild day.

MayaThat's football.

DavidSo if you got something out of today, do us a favor. Subscribe, leave a review. It takes 30 seconds and it helps.

MayaWe'll be back Monday. Lot more to dig into.

DavidThanks for spending your morning with us. I'm Maya.

MayaAnd I'm David. Stay sharp out there.