U.S.-Iran Deal, AI and Market Chaos, and World Cup Shockers

Maya: Hey, good morning. Welcome to the Morning Rundown. I'm Maya, here with David, and we've got a packed one today. David: Yeah, lot moving this morning. Good to be here. Maya: So, big headline, the U.S. and Iran hammered out a preliminary deal, ceasefire extended, the Strait of Hormuz back open, but then, David: Hmm. Maya: almost immediately, talks got postponed. David: Right, and VP Vance publicly went after Israel over the whole thing. That's not nothing. Nothing. There's a lot to break down there, what the deal actually gets us and what it doesn't. Maya: We'll get into all of that. Then on the market side, Accenture dropped 20% in a single day. Plus, the White House and Anthropic are now talking AI security rules, and the new Fed chair contender Kevin Warsh has some pretty interesting ideas about how monetary policy should actually work. David: Yeah, let markets lead, which depending on who you ask... Maya: Ask, yeah, we'll get into that. David: And sports. Mexico's already through to the World Cup knockouts. There's a brutal injury out of the Canada game, and Wyndham Clark is leading the U.S. Open by four shots after day one. Maya: That Shinnecock round was something. Okay, Middle East first. Speaker 3: So, J.D. Vance cancels a trip to Switzerland and publicly slams Israel in the same week. That's not nothing. David: No, that's a lot. Let me back up a second. The New York Times and NBC News both reported this. The U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal. Ceasefire extended. Strait of Hormuz reopens. Oil sanctions waived. Speaker 3: And then, almost immediately, things got complicated. David: Right. Switzerland announced it was postponing a follow-up round of talks. Hawks that were supposed to happen Friday, Vance canceled his trip there. Speaker 3: So like the ink isn't even dry and we're already hitting pause? David: Basically, and the reason is Israel. According to the Washington Post, Israel's strikes in Lebanon intensified right around this window. Four Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, and Israel hit back hard, targeting Hezbollah. Speaker 3: Which, I mean, Israel's been watching Iran fund Hezbollah for years. Their concern isn't exactly coming out of nowhere. David: No, it's not, and Vance apparently didn't hold back. The Washington Post reported he slammed Israel's reaction to the deal pretty sharply, which is unusual. That's a tense thing to say out loud about a close ally. Speaker 3: That's wild, right? Like, the administration is pushing this deal hard enough that they're willing to take that friction publicly. David: Follow the money. The Strait of Hormuz is why. Speaker 3: Okay, yes, explain that part, because people hear Strait of Hormuz and— First, Strait of Hormuz, and maybe their eyes glaze over a little. David: Fair. So the Guardian reported, this is a 110-day conflict, and one of the core pieces of the preliminary deal – they're calling it a memorandum of understanding – is re-opening the Strait. Roughly 20% of global oil flows through that narrow strip of water. Speaker 3: 20 percent. Speaker 4: Mm-hmm. Speaker 3: That goes straight to gas prices. David: Direct line: when that Strait gets disrupted, oil traders panic. Prices spike. The spike So the administration reopening it, the U.S. military actually lifted its naval blockade – that's a concrete, immediate economic win they can point to. Speaker 3: And Iran gets sanctions relief on oil exports, so both sides are getting something real. David: That's the incentive structure – both sides needed an off-ramp, and oil was the shared lever. Speaker 3: Okay, but I want to push on the conservative read here for a second, because getting the Strait open and getting sanctions tied to behavior Maya: The behavior, that's a result. I'm not dismissing that. David: Neither am I. Maya: But Israel's concern isn't just about Lebanon in isolation. It's about Iran's whole regional posture. Hezbollah, the proxies, the broader threat picture. And I don't get the sense that the deal really addresses any of that. David: The IAEA chief said, and Al Jazeera covered the global reaction to this, now the technical work starts on Iran's nuclear program, which sounds like a diplomatic. way of saying we haven't solved the hard stuff yet. Maya: Yeah, technical work starts is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. David: It really is. Look, the deal gets results on Hormuz and stops the act of fighting. That matters. But critics, and there are real ones with real arguments, are saying this looks a lot like returning to the pre-war status quo without getting structural changes from Tehran. Maya: The Washington Post actually flagged that. The deal was criticized as a return. Speaker 3: Return to that status quo. David: Which, if you're in Tel Aviv, that's not reassuring. Speaker 3: Not even a little. And I think that tension between Washington wanting a deal that's sellable domestically and Israel needing something that actually changes Iran's behavior, that's not resolved. David: Probably not this week. Speaker 3: Probably not this decade, honestly. David: Duh, and yet here we are. Speaker 3: So the question I keep coming back to is when big institutions make... make decisions that look good on paper, who actually bears the cost if it falls apart—Iran, Israel, or the person paying at the pump? David: Hmm, that's a question that doesn't stay in the Middle East for long. Speaker 3: Shifting gears, and honestly this one hits closer to home for a lot of people, let's talk AI, markets and the Fed. David: Yeah, so three stories that all point to the same thing: the gap between the hype and the reality is starting to show up in places that actually hurt. Maya: Start with Accenture, because David, 20%? David: Twenty percent. Shares dropped after they put out a revenue outlook that missed expectations. Politico covered this, but Accenture's numbers came from Yahoo Finance. They're forecasting $17.75 to $18.4 billion in quarterly revenue, and bookings actually declined two percent. Maya: Wait, really? David: Mm-hmm. Maya: Bookings are going down? That's the pipeline. David: That's the whole forward signal. And CEO Julie Sweet said, and I'm quoting Business Insider here, that AI transformation will take some time. time. Which fine, that's probably true, but investors heard that and just left. Maya: I mean, come on, you say this will take some time to Wall Street and you're basically handing them the exit button. David: Right, and the thing is, Accenture is not some scrappy startup. They're supposed to be the company that helps big enterprises actually implement this stuff. If their bookings are soft, that's a real signal about where corporate AI spending is going. Maya: So the consultants are saying AI is coming, just not yet. Yeah, that tracks. David: Meanwhile, the White House has been in talks with Anthropic, and Politico reported that those conversations Those conversations shifted toward setting actual AI security rules, not just cozy chats about innovation, security standards. Maya: Hmm, that's a pretty notable change in posture, right? Like the administration moving from, let's not get in the way, to, okay, let's draw some lines. David: Yeah, and I'd say it's probably overdue. The question is whether rules that are written by people who understand the technology or people who are just reacting to it. Maya: Fair point. David: Okay, and then there's Kevin Warsh, tipped as a leading Fed chair contender. Maya: And his view of monetary policy is, well, Yahoo Finance covered this, he wants markets to guide the Fed, not the other way around. David: Wait, so instead of the Fed signaling to markets, markets signal to the Fed? Maya: Basically, he called financial markets probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers, which is a big philosophical shift. Less intervention, tighter discipline. David: And if you believe the Fed has been too loose for too long, that sounds appealing. Sounds appealing. Maya: Follow the money on that one. Less Fed hand-holding means more market volatility up front, but maybe fewer distortions down the road. David: Okay, I need a palate cleanser after all that because we also have a World Cup that's actually happening, a goalkeeper error that will live rent-free in South Korean soccer history forever, and an injury update on Canada's Ismaël Kone that got pretty scary. Maya: Yeah, let's go there. David: All right, sports time. And honestly, this World Cup has delivered. Maya: Day four, and we already have our first team through to the knockouts. David: Mexico! Al Jazeera reported it. Luis Romo's 50th minute goal, a 1-0 win over South Korea, and Mexico tops Group A with a game still to play. Maya: And they get to play the knockout round at home on Mexican soil. The crowd at Guadalajara was losing it. David: Okay, but we have to talk about the goal, because it wasn't just a goal. The South Korea goalkeeper, Kim Seung-gyu, just dropped it. The Guardian called it a howler. That's the word they used, a howler. Maya: That's that poor guy. David: That clip is going to live on the internet forever, like forever forever. Maya: And what makes it wilder is Mexico has now set up for a potential last 16 match. match at the Azteca. If the bracket holds, that game could be absolutely apocalyptic in the best way. David: Okay, I would watch that. I would absolutely watch that. Maya: But there was a rough moment in the tournament yesterday: Canada beat Qatar six David: Wow. Maya: to zero, which sounds great, but USA Today reported that Ismail Kone took a tackle in the second half that earned a red card for the Qatar player. Kone went straight to the hospital for surgery. David: Yeah, that one stings. He's a key player for Canada, one of the co-hosts, and they're writing this wave of home support. Maya: The Canada players were visibly upset on the pitch. Coaches, too. You could see it was serious immediately. David: Wishing him a full recovery. That's just... nobody wants to see that, especially at a home tournament. Maya: Okay, Pivot to golf, because Wyndham Clark is doing something special at Shinnecock Hills. David: Wait, how special? Maya: NBC Sports had him at 6-under through 16 holes. Wyndham's four shot lead before darkness stopped play—four shots! David: That's a runaway at a U.S. Open. Those courses are designed to punish you. Maya: CNN explained the setup: morning fog caused a two-hour delay and Clark had a late afternoon tee time. As the wind died down with the sun, his round just clicked. David: So he basically got better weather than the morning groups. Maya: Right, but CNN was clear: Good golf was still required. His highlight was an eagle on the par five, knocked his approach to three feet. David: Three feet from the hole on a par five approach? That's not just good weather, that's just... Good. Maya: He's the defending U.S. Open champion, too, won in 2023, so this isn't a fluke start from some unknown. He knows how to close one of these. David: And Rory McIlroy is in early contention, which, I mean, come on, Grand Slam watch is always in the background when Rory's near the top. Maya: Scottie Scheffler had a rough one. NBC Sports called it a challenging round, so the world number one is already playing catch-up. David: Rough day for Scottie, good day for everyone else's bracket. Bracket Shinnecock on a Friday morning? I'm very here for it. All right, that's the rundown for today. Big episode. Iran deal, market swings, World Cup drama. Maya: Yeah, and the thread connecting it all? Nothing's as settled as the headlines make it sound. The Iran deal's got real holes. Accenture's bookings drop was the real story behind the stock slide. David: And Mexico's in the knockouts because of a goalkeeper mistake. Wild day. Maya: That's football. David: So if you got something out of today, do us a favor. Subscribe, leave a review. It takes 30 seconds and it helps. Maya: We'll be back Monday. Lot more to dig into. David: Thanks for spending your morning with us. I'm Maya. Maya: And I'm David. Stay sharp out there.