Shutdown Averted, Putin's NATO Test, and a Spider-Man Sized Weekend

MayaGood morning, and welcome back to The Morning Rundown.

DavidGlad to be here with you.

MayaWe've got a full show today. The Senate just avoided a shutdown right before the midterms, but that fight's really just getting pushed to December.

DavidAnd there's more out of DC. A court just told the White House it can't build that ballroom without Congress signing off. Trump's already vowing to appeal.

MayaWild. Then David's taking us overseas. Iran's making moves in the Gulf that could hit us right at the gas pump.

DavidHere's the thing, though. Ukraine's dealing with deadly strikes near Kyiv, plus fresh warnings about Putin testing NATO.

MayaHeavy stuff. But we're ending lighter. Box office numbers, Dwayne Johnson defending Moana, and some wedding news everyone's talking about.

DavidShould be a good mix.

MayaAll right, David, let's start with Washington. So the Senate actually pulled this off, voted Saturday to fund the government through December 11th, right before midterm season kicks into high gear.

DavidYeah. Morgan Rimmer had that up on CNN, and this was the vote everybody was sweating to avoid a shutdown.

MayaMm-hmm. Which, can we just say, nobody wants their flight canceled or their paycheck delayed a month before an election?

DavidRight. And that's the thing about a shutdown near midterms. It's really not a fight anyone can win. Furloughed workers, TSA lines backing up, parks closing. Members of Congress feel that in their inboxes fast.

MayaSo who blinked first here?

DavidPolitico's coverage frames it as a GOP Trump deal. Republicans got some concessions, but the price was punting the real spending fight to the end of the year.

MayaWait, so this isn't actually solved? We just moved the deadline?

DavidPretty much. December 11th, same fight, same arguments, just with less time before people start voting.

MayaOkay, that's very Washington of them.

DavidI mean, come on. That's the pattern every year. Nobody wants to own the vote that actually sets spending levels, so they kick it until the last possible second.

MayaAnd Politico's also flagging that Todd Blanche's attorney general nomination got wrapped into the same session, so the Senate's clearing its desk before break. Things that get pushed to the courts instead of getting settled. Birthright citizenship, round two.

DavidSo Trump's team announced this new attempt to limit it, and I feel like people's first reaction is, "Wait, didn't the Supreme Court already shut this down?"

MayaKind of, kinda not. Valerie Gonzalez's reporting on this lays it out. The Supreme Court ruling in June struck down the earlier version, but it didn't rule on the actual constitutional question of who counts as a citizen at birth.

DavidSo this new one's narrower. It's aimed at kids born to parents here on what they're calling birth tourism.

MayaMm-hmm.

DavidPlus a few other specific categories. And Trump's team told Gonzalez they're confident it clears the bar the justices set.

MayaLegally, that's a real question though, right? The 14th Amendment says, "Subject to the jurisdiction thereof." And depending which historian you ask, that phrase cuts either way.

DavidIt does. This isn't one side reading the Constitution straight and the other making stuff up. There's actual scholarship on both sides of that jurisdiction clause.

MayaAnd politically, immigration enforcement polls well right now. So even if the legal fight drags out-

DavidTrump's team isn't losing much by pushing it. Gonzalez's piece notes advocates are already lining up to challenge it, so this is headed back to court no matter what.

MayaWhich is the honest answer. We don't know who wins this one till a judge says so.

DavidSame theme, tiny story, though. I love this one. The White House ballroom.

MayaOh my gosh, yes. Okay, catch me up.

DavidA federal appeals court ruled this week Trump can't build it, a $400 million-

MayaWow

David... 90,000 square foot ballroom where the East Wing used to stand, without Congress signing off first.

MayaWait, 400 million for a ballroom?

DavidThat number comes from the AP's reporting by Darlene Superville and Michael Kunzelman, and the ruling wasn't about whether it's a good idea. It was about who holds the checkbook. Trump's calling it unjust and says he's taking it to the Supreme Court.

MayaHe can try, but three judges just said pretty plainly, the executive Court.

DavidHe can try, but three judges just said pretty plainly, the executive doesn't get to spend on that scale without Congress in the room.

MayaIt's kind of the same question all day today, isn't it? Who actually controls the money, the votes, the leverage?

DavidYeah. And overseas, that question gets a lot more dangerous.

MayaBecause if Congress can barely agree on a ballroom, what happens when the vote that matters is about sanctions on Russia or standing behind allies in the Gulf? So same question, different continent.

DavidSo The Wall Street Journal has this piece. Iran thinks it's got an opening to finally push the US out of the Gulf.

MayaWait, out? Like gone, gone?

DavidThat's the read, and follow the money here. The Strait of Hormuz carries something like a fifth of the world's oil traffic.

MayaMm-hmm. So if that's squeezed-

DavidThe price shows up at pumps here, same week, maybe same day.

MayaOkay, that's not abstract at all.

DavidNope. Every time Hormuz gets tense, you can watch it move in futures markets within hours.

MayaWhy now, though? Feels like there's always tension in that strait.

DavidA few things stacking up. US attention's split with Ukraine, chatter about thinner Gulf naval presence, and Iran watching how far Congress goes on Russia sanctions before its own oil trade gets squeezed next.

MayaSo it's opportunistic.

DavidThat's the working theory, yeah. Nobody's confirmed intent, but the timing isn't nothing.

MayaAll right. What about the Kyiv story? I saw that headline this morning, and it stopped me cold.

DavidYeah. BBC's Harry Sekulich reported another night of Russian strikes near Kyiv. Three dead, a child among them.

MayaGod.

DavidAnd Zelenskys warning Ukraines running low on missile interceptors. That's not a small detail to bury.

MayaNo, it's not.

DavidOn top of that, CBSs Olivia Gazis reported US intelligence thinks Putin might authorize something provocative-

MayaWow

David... aimed straight at NATO territory, testing the alliance.

MayaLike a probe, not an invasion.

DavidRight. More like poking the fence to see if it's electrified. Theyre not spelling out exactly what provocative means. That's a judgment call from intelligence agencies, not a confirmed plan. But flagging it publicly tells you something in its own.

MayaRight. They don't usually say that out loud for no reason.

DavidWhich lines up with the Senate news. Reuters reported the Senate passed the Russia sanctions bill named for the late Senator Lindsey Graham. House decides next.

MayaDo sanctions like that actually bite, or do they just make Congress look tough?

DavidDepends who you ask. Backers say it starves Russian energy revenue funding the war. Skeptics point out Russia's spent two years routing around sanctions through India, China, shadow fleets.

MayaBecause sanctions on paper and sanctions that actually choke off funding are two different animals.

DavidRight. Enforcement's the whole ballgame. Plenty of past sanctions packages had loopholes big enough to drive an oil tanker through.

MayaSo peace through strength or theater, maybe both.

DavidI wanna see if the House adds real enforcement or just waves it through.

MayaOkay, heavy stretch of the show.

DavidLittle bit.

MayaWhich is exactly why I'm thrilled we're closing on a guy in spandex.

DavidHard pivot, not even sorry.

MayaAfter Hormuz and Kyiv, half the country's buying popcorn for Spider-Man's opening weekend instead. Okay, deep breath. From missile interceptors to Spider-Man swinging into $140 million weekend.

DavidThat's what podcast segments are for, apparently.

MayaSo Anthony D'Alessandro at Deadline has Spider-Man: Brand New Day tracking for that $140 million number, and this new film, One Night Only, opened with $1.35 million in previews alone.

DavidPreviews making headlines now. People used to sneak into Wednesday shows. Now studios brag about it.

MayaRight? Tells you theaters aren't dead. They just need something worth leaving the couch for.

DavidWhich is apparently not live action Moana.

MayaOh, we're doing this. Dwayne Johnson actually responded to the mixed reviews, and Entertainment Weekly covered it.

DavidWhat'd he say?

MayaBasically stood by the work, said the fans will decide, not the critics.

DavidI get defending your own work, but audiences are getting tired of remakes, even the decent ones.

MayaYeah. It's less, "Is this bad?" And more, "Did we need this?"

DavidMeanwhile, Netflix is trying something for their summer slump. The New York Times ran a piece on a guy actually living inside a billboard on Sunset.

MayaWait, a real person living in the billboard?

DavidPromoting a movie, apparently. The Times called it a stunt for a slow season.

MayaThat's either brilliant marketing or a cry for help.

DavidCould be both.

MayaOkay, but my favorite story, Lily Ford at Hollywood Reporter had details on Tom Holland and Zendaya's wedding at an estate called Beaverbrook.

DavidWith, like, 250 guests, right?

MayaIncluding Timothée Chalamet and Robert Downey Jr.

DavidAh.

MayaThat's basically an Avengers reunion with cake.

DavidAnd the timing. His wedding news drops the same week his movie's about to clear $140 million?

MayaBest week of the guy's life, honestly.

DavidBack in Washington, though, that funding deal only buys until December.

MayaAnd the sanctions bill still has to clear the House.

DavidSo enjoy the popcorn while it lasts.

MayaBack to reality soon enough. Okay, so today, Senate ducks a shutdown, punts the real fight to December.

DavidAnd Trump's already teeing up round two on that ballroom ruling.

Maya$400 million for a ballroom.

DavidYeah. Follow the money. Washington just keeps kicking the can down the road.

MayaSo the takeaway, none of these money fights are actually over. They're just pushed to December.

DavidFile that away.

MayaIf you liked this one, subscribe and leave us a review. It really helps.

DavidMeans a lot to us. We'll catch you all tomorrow.

MayaThanks for hanging out with us. See you then.