Iran Grabs the Strait, Google Loses in Court, and El Nino Comes for California

MayaMorning, everybody. Welcome to the Morning Rundown.

DavidOr afternoon, depending on when you hit play.

MayaFair. I'm on my second coffee already, so bear with me.

DavidSecond? It's barely eight.

MayaDon't judge. Today's a heavy one, though.

DavidYeah. Iran's claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz right after Trump floated the idea of the US just keeping it.

MayaWait, keeping it? The whole strait?

DavidThat's the headline. We'll look at what that actually means for oil.

MayaThere's also this wild story about unverified Israeli warnings tied to a threat against Trump himself. Wow.

DavidFile that away because it raises real questions about how allies actually share intelligence.

MayaThen we jump to tech. A federal judge just ordered Google to loosen its grip on Android.

DavidRight as they're racing out a brand-new AI model. Timing, huh?

MayaGoogle's having a week.

DavidAnd we close with the weather desk, a possible super El Niño plus a tropical storm bearing down on Hawaii.

MayaAnd Colombia's earthquake rescue window closing fast against how Venezuela's handling theirs.

DavidThat tracks with a lot we've seen this year.

MayaAll right. First stop, the Gulf, and the fight over who controls it.

DavidLet's go.

MayaOkay, so Iran is straight up saying the Strait of Hormuz belongs to them now?

DavidTehran's exact words, per CBS News, were that the strait is under Iran's control and management. That's the response to Trump floating the idea the US might keep it.

MayaWait, keep it? Like keep the Strait?

DavidThat's what he said, and twenty percent of the world's oil moves through that eleven-mile gap.

MayaTwenty percent. So if this actually closes?

DavidYou're looking at a gas price jump at the pump within weeks, not months.

MayaWow.

DavidEvery tanker headed to Asia or Europe runs through there.

MayaThat's wild, right? One waterway and suddenly my commute costs more.

DavidThere's no easy detour either. You'd have to route around the entire Arabian Peninsula, and insurance on those ships spikes before a single barrel even moves.

MayaSo is this actually happening, or is it just talk?

DavidIran flexes control of that strait every time tension rises. They haven't closed it, ever.

MayaSo Trump saying we might keep it, reckless or just matching their tone?

DavidI'd say the latter. Deterrence works when the other side isn't sure you're bluffing, and Iran's backed off every time actual shipping got threatened.

MayaFair, but speaking of things getting heavier...

DavidYeah. Reuters reported today US officials couldn't verify Israeli warnings about Iranian plots targeting Trump.

MayaWait, so Israeli flagged a threat, and we just couldn't confirm it?

DavidThat's what Reuters found. And remember, this is the same window CNN and CBS reported Trump got quietly moved out of Turkey. A plane switch, a catering truck involved.

MayaThat's not a small gap. If your closest ally hands you a threat and you can't verify it...

DavidYou've got a real problem in how intelligence moves between allies. Either Israel's withholding sourcing or US agencies are missing something Israel's picking up.

MayaHmm.

DavidNeither's a good answer.

MayaYeah.

DavidMoving pieces, though. Axios reported Kushner heads to Israel and Egypt next week for Gaza talks.

MayaWhat's realistic there versus what just gets announced with a photo op?

DavidProbably another hostage and aid phase, maybe a ceasefire extension. Axios says Netanyahu's stuck between political pressure at home and the deal itself. So don't expect a finish line.

MayaGot it. Speaking of leaders testing limits...

DavidPutin visited the Kuril Islands, seized from Japan at the end of World War II, so we're talking eighty years of Tokyo calling those theirs.

MayaHe just went there?

DavidFirst visit ever, and The New York Times reported Japan called it absolutely unacceptable. But Japan's not sending ships to stop him.

MayaSo it's a boundary test with basically zero cost.

DavidHe does it because nobody's made it expensive enough yet.

MayaAnd Ukraine's offering something to Russia now too.

DavidThe Guardian reported Kyiv floated a deal to stop attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea to reopen the grain corridor.

MayaDoes Russia actually want that?

DavidDepends what's on the table. Grain exports help Ukraine's economy more than Russia's right now, so Moscow's got less reason to say yes without something in return.

MayaSo everybody's drawing lines nobody's agreed to respect.

DavidRight. And that's not just happening on shipping lanes. It's happening closer to home. A judge just told one of the biggest companies on the planet where its authority actually ends.

MayaAnd now a court sets one too for Google.

DavidYeah. Judge James Donato had a line for ages. The Verge quoted him telling Google, quote, "That is not acceptable."

MayaTeacher voice.

DavidBasically, he's ordering Google to make it easier to install rival app stores. No more burying the option.

MayaOkay, but real talk. Does this change anything for me holding my phone right now?

DavidEventually, maybe. Here's the money part though. Google takes a cut, up to thirty percent on app purchases.

MayaMm-hmm.

DavidEvery rival storefront that gets easier to install chips at that.

MayaSo developers keep more.

DavidThat's the theory. Whether Google passes any of it to you, I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it.

MayaNoted.

DavidAnd Google's having a week because Reuters reported they just rolled out Gemini 3.7 Flash built for coding for these AI agent tasks.

MayaWait, didn't they just put out a Gemini model?

DavidThree weeks ago. They're sprinting while getting scolded, kind of a split screen.

MayaGet grounded by the judge, ship a product the same news cycle?

DavidFollow the money. The antitrust's fight's about the past business model. Gemini's the bet on the next one.

MayaSpeaking of new rules, Trump just told American companies they can hit back at hackers.

DavidThe New York Times had that one. Cyberattacks on their own systems. Retaliation basically greenlit under certain conditions.

MayaOkay, but who decides what's a legit target? Because if I'm a company that just got hit...

DavidYou don't exactly get to be judge and jury on the internet.

MayaRight. Like, what stops this turning into companies just blasting whoever they suspect?

DavidThat's the actual fight buried in the policy Years of ransomware groups operating with zero consequence. I get the frustration.

MayaRight.

DavidBut it gets messy fast if the wrong server gets hit.

MayaEspecially if it's, I don't know, a hospital's network that got hijacked as a relay.

DavidExactly the scenario people are worried about.

MayaOkay, on a smaller, scarier scale, Apple's sending out actual push notifications now when it catches government spyware targeting your phone.

DavidTechCrunch flagged that this week straight to your lock screen.

MayaAnd if you ever get one of those, do not brush it off as spam.

DavidRight. It's not some random phishing text. Apple's threat intelligence flagged your device specifically.

MayaSo what do you actually do?

DavidUpdate the phone immediately, and if you're a journalist, an activist, anyone with a reason to be targeted, get help from a digital security group. Don't just tap Dismiss.

MayaGood reminder that not every alert on your phone is noise.

DavidSome of them you actually need to read.

MayaWhich honestly brings me to the weather app because there's a warning worth reading this weekend too. This weekend's got one worth heeding.

DavidYeah? What have you got?

MayaThe Los Angeles Times says a super El Niño is now 95% likely to develop this year, per Rong-Gong Lin II's reporting.

David95%. That's basically California's winter locked in already.

MayaRight. And if your house sits near a burn scar from the last few fire seasons-

DavidMm.

Maya-now's the week to check sandbags, clear the gutters, know your evacuation route.

DavidWet winters stacked on dry burned hillsides, that's the exact setup for mudslides.

MayaEvery time. So Hawaii's got its own thing brewing this weekend.

DavidWhat's happening there?

MayaThe Washington Post is reporting a tropical storm could bring life-threatening flooding, damaging wind, and rough seas starting this weekend.

DavidIf you've got travel plans to the islands, that's not a maybe glance at the forecast situation.

MayaNo. Check it today. Now, Colombia, this one's heavier.

DavidYeah.

MayaReuters is reporting hundreds are still missing after the earthquake, and rescue crews are running out of time.

DavidAnd the comparison people keep drawing-

MayaIs with Venezuela. AP's Isabel DeBre wrote that Venezuelans watched their own government dig through rubble by hand for days after their last quake.

DavidWhile Colombia had equipment mobilized within hours.

MayaRight. At some point, it stops being about the earthquake. It's about whether a government shows up.

DavidMm-hmm. Yeah. That's what matters underneath it.

MayaOne more quick. The Ebola outbreak in the DRC just hit a sixth province.

DavidSix already. How fast is that moving?

MayaThe Guardian reports the WHO chief says it's on pace to be the deadliest outbreak on record. No need to panic, but containment speed matters before it becomes a travel headline.

DavidCatch it regional, it stays regional.

MayaExactly. So heading into the weekend, watch the California hillsides, watch Hawaii's coastline, and keep an eye on that Colombia rescue window.

DavidA lot riding in the next few days.

MayaIt always is. Okay, so today's big takeaway for me, that Hormuz standoff, no easy detour, and that hits gas prices before-

DavidMm-hmm.

Maya-one barrel moves.

DavidRight. And that Google ruling, Judge Donato's line, "That is not acceptable," pretty much sums up the whole week for big tech.

MayaYeah. No kidding. Also, keep an eye on Hawaii this weekend. That storm looks nasty.

DavidDefinitely. All right. That's the rundown for today.

MayaIf you liked it, subscribe and leave us a review. Seriously helps.

DavidThanks for spending your morning with us. See you tomorrow.