Iran, Elections, and a Trillion-Dollar IPO: Your Tuesday Morning Rundown

MayaGood morning, and welcome to the morning rundown. I'm here with David, and honestly, today's lineup is a lot.

DavidYeah, like a lot. We've got active military strikes, a governor's race nobody can call, and Elon Musk potentially becoming the world's first trillionaire.

MayaI mean, come on, that's a Tuesday.

DavidThat's just a Tuesday, apparently. So let's start with the Middle East, because the BBC and CBS News are... Both reporting fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, and Iran hitting Kuwait with missiles and drones. Trump says talks are still going on, but...

MayaIt sure doesn't look like it.

DavidNo, it really doesn't. Rubio also testified before Congress for the first time since this whole thing started. A lot to unpack there.

MayaThen we're looking at last night's primaries. Six states voted. California's governor race, according to the Guardian, still too close to call this morning. thing.

DavidAnd Spencer Pratt is apparently in the mix in LA, so that's something.

MayaThat's wild, right? And then we've got SpaceX targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation in what Reuters is calling a record IPO. Plus, Microsoft internally calling their new AI tool a way to get users addicted.

DavidGreat word choice, guys.

MayaAll right, let's get into it. Middle East first. Alright, so here's where we start this morning: The U.S. is bombing Iran, Iran is bombing back, and Trump is telling reporters that talks are going on continuously. All of that is happening at the same time.

DavidYeah, that's the part that's hard to square. You've got active military strikes and active diplomacy running in parallel. That doesn't usually happen.

MayaRight, like, how does that work exactly?

DavidSo here's the thing, though. According to Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio Libya was up in front of Congress today, first time since the administration launched this war on Tuesday, and he laid out what the U.S. actually wants – no nuclear weapons program, full verification, and Iran has to stop funding proxy groups across the region.

MayaWhich, I mean, Iran's not going to just hand that over.

DavidProbably not. And CBS News reported this morning that even while Trump was insisting talks are ongoing, Iran fired a missile and drone salvo at At Kuwait,

Speaker 3Wow.

Davidone person was killed.

MayaWait, Kuwait? So this already spread beyond Iran and the U.S.?

DavidThat's the thing people need to understand. When Iran retaliates, it doesn't just retaliate against us directly. It goes after U.S. bases and partners in the Gulf. Kuwait, Bahrain, these countries are getting pulled in whether they want to or not.

MayaThat tracks, and it explains why lawmakers are getting impatient. The Washington Post had Rubio testifying publicly today, and apparently Congress is not thrilled with how this is going. going.

DavidRight. You've got members on both sides asking how long this lasts, what the exit looks like. Rubio's answers were essentially, we're working on it. Not exactly reassuring.

MayaWe're working on it is not a strategy.

DavidNo, it is not. But here's what's actually interesting about Trump's posture. He's not walking away from diplomacy. He said on Fox News that a deal is not a simple thing, which honestly is more measured than a lot of people expected.

MayaHmm. So he's keeping the door open while the bombs are still going.

DavidExactly, and there's a logic to that, even if it's uncomfortable. The strikes are pressure, the talks are leverage. Whether Iran sees it that way is a different question.

MayaI mean, Iran attacked Kuwait while Trump was literally saying talks are ongoing. That's not exactly a signal that they're ready to negotiate in good faith.

DavidNo, it's not. And that's been the pattern with Iran for decades,

MayaMm

Davidright?

Mayahmm.

DavidThey negotiate. create and escalate at the same time they use military pressure as a bargaining chip too

MayaSo what does a deal actually look like here? Because Rubio's demands sound like pretty much everything, which

DavidYeah, that's the hard part. Full dismantlement of the nuclear program and to proxy funding, that's not a negotiating position. That's a terms of surrender. Iran is not going to agree to that at the table.

Mayameans either the U.S. softens those demands. And or this goes on for a while.

DavidOr Iran's economy gets squeezed to the point where the regime has no choice. That's the theory, anyway.

MayaAnd in the meantime, people are dying in Kuwait, in Iran, probably elsewhere we haven't heard about yet. The BBC reported fresh U.S. strikes on an oil tanker, too. So this is spreading in ways that are going to ripple through oil markets through the whole region.

DavidFollow the money, and in this case follow the oil. Any escalation near the Strait of Hormuz gets expensive fast for everyone.

MayaOkay, so that's the picture. A war with diplomatic windows still technically open, but Iran's actions are making those windows look pretty small right now.

DavidThe U.S. has a strong hand, but strong hands don't automatically end conflicts.

MayaNot quickly anyway. So we're watching. Meanwhile, back here at home, six states went to the polls yesterday. Day. And the question of who holds power in Washington got a little more interesting. Which party's voters actually showed up? And what does that tell us about November? Okay, shifting to the states now, six of them voted Tuesday and the one everyone's watching is California.

DavidYeah, and the governor's race there is a mess in the best possible way. The Guardian reported it's too close to call, with Steve Hilton, Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer all showing up in the early results.

MayaSteve Hilton in the mix is genuinely interesting. Former Fox News host, conservative outsider, runs well against the kind of sec- of Sacramento establishment fatigue that's been building for years.

DavidRight. And California uses the top two primary. So it's not just about who wins the nomination. It's about who's standing at the end. Two candidates advance regardless of party.

MayaWhich means you could get two Democrats or, you know, a Democrat and a Republican heading into November.

DavidExactly. And that downstream effect on House districts is the real story. Reuters noted that California House primaries could actually tip the balance in Congress. We're talking about seats that could flip the majority.

MayaSo California, of all places, might be the state that determines whether Republicans keep the House. That's wild, right?

DavidI mean, come on, the irony there is real. Democrats actually redrew the congressional map trying to protect their seats. PBS reported on this. The primary is sort of a live test of whether that redraw actually pays off.

MayaAnd early indications is it's not a clean sweep for them. Some of those redrawn districts are still genuinely competitive. competitive.

DavidYeah, NBC had a piece specifically on Iowa, where two Republican-held battleground House districts set their ballots Tuesday. Those races go to...

MayaNovember, and they matter.

DavidIowa and California in the same breath. That tells you this is a national picture, not just a West Coast story.

MayaYeah, New Jersey, South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana also voting. The Guardian had live coverage running through the night. The results are still coming in on a lot of these.

DavidSo what do you actually watch for as results finalize over the next few weeks?

MayaTurnout numbers, specifically which party's base showed up more energized. If Republican primary turnout in California's competitive districts is higher than expected, that's a real signal.

DavidAnd watch the Hilton result closely. If he consolidates the conservative vote and advances, it changes the shape of the whole race.

MayaWrite a credible Republican on the November ballot in California is not something Sacramento is used to planning around.

DavidKaren Bass, by the way, punched her ticket for November in the L.A. mayor's race. Case CNN had that early, she advances. Spencer Pratt was in second, which is either a punchline or a wake-up call, depending on how you look at it.

MayaYeah, I'll let the listeners decide that one.

DavidSo, votes still being counted, maps still being drawn. Meanwhile, Wall Street didn't wait for any of it.

MayaThe S&P hit a new high today, and the biggest story driving market confidence right now might be a number so big it barely feels real.

DavidAnd speaking of markets moving fast, the S&P hit a new high Tuesday, which feels almost unremarkable until you see what's driving the mood.

MayaRight, so Reuters dropped a pretty wild number today. SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for its IPO. That would be the largest IPO in history by a lot.

DavidWait, $1.75 trillion?

MayaYeah, and to put that in context... Investor's Business Daily confirmed the share price is set at $135, with SpaceX planning to sell around 555 million shares, raising $75 billion in the offering alone.

DavidOkay, okay, okay. I knew SpaceX was huge, but I was not ready for that.

MayaOh, nobody was. And here's the thing, though. The 1.75 trillion figure includes a green shoe option, but even without it, we're talking about a company valued a... Above most countries' GDPs. That's not a tech company. That's a geopolitical actor with a stock ticker.

DavidA geopolitical actor with a stock ticker? I mean, come on, that's almost too real.

MayaAnd NBC News is reporting that Musk is expected to cross a trillion dollars in personal net worth when the shares go public, which is projected for around June 12th, first person in history to hit that number.

DavidThat's wild, right? Like, we've talked about billionaires forever, and now we're genuinely- Genuinely saying trillionaire with a straight face.

MayaWith a very straight face. And look, NBC also noted Democrats are sharpening attacks over that milestone. But the market doesn't seem too concerned. The S&P posting a new high while all this is priced in says something.

DavidIt says confidence. Private sector doing big things. Markets responding.

MayaIt does.

DavidThat story kind of tells itself.

MayaAnd before we leave the tech space entirely, there was one other thing I... I couldn't ignore-404 Media got their hands on an internal Microsoft document.

DavidOh no! What did it say?

MayaThe strategy for their new AI assistant called Scout is, and I am quoting here, "to make people addicted to the tool before rolling out more features.

DavidThey wrote that in a document!

MayaApparently the plan is hook first, feature roll later, which I mean, at least they're being honest internally.

DavidThat's one way to look at it. The other way is that's a little alarming written down explicitly.

MayaBoth can be true. It's a real tension in the AI space right now, engagement versus utility. Companies want sticky products, and sometimes sticky and good are the same thing. Sometimes they're not.

DavidSo the market's up, SpaceX is about to be worth more than most countries, and Microsoft is literally writing, make them addicted in their strategy docs. Just a normal Tuesday.

MayaJust an absolutely normal Tuesday. The world is moving fast today.

DavidUm, that's the rundown for today. A lot to sit with, honestly.

MayaYeah, the Iran situation stuck with me. Bombing and negotiating at the same time, and then Kuwait gets hit while Trump's saying talks are ongoing. That's a lot to process.

DavidRight. And California might end up deciding the House majority, which, you know, nobody saw coming.

MayaFile that away.

DavidExactly. Look, if you got something out of today's episode, subscribe and- and leave us a review. It genuinely helps.

MayaIt really does. Thanks for spending your morning with us.

DavidWe'll be back tomorrow. Stay curious out there.