Hormuz on the Brink, Trump's Court Fight, and a Late Summer COVID Bump

MayaGood morning, everybody. Welcome back to the Morning Rundown.

DavidGood morning. We've got a packed one today, so grab your coffee.

MayaSeriously, top of the show, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers got hit, and Trump's talking about calling the whole waterway US territory.

DavidWhich, yeah, we've got questions about what that actually means for gas prices.

MayaMm-hmm. Plus, a quick update on that earthquake off Indonesia.

DavidThen we're bouncing through DC, the ballroom fight's headed to the Supreme Court, and there's a wild story about conditions on the USS Abraham Lincoln.

MayaOh, and Luigi Mangione's back in the news too.

DavidThe thing is, though, the health segment might be my favorite today.

MayaRight? COVID's ticking up again. There's a study on hormone therapy and Alzheimer's risk that's kinda wild.

DavidAnd Claude users are canceling subscriptions over a watermark. Small thing, big reaction.

MayaSo much going on. Let's start where the tension's highest.

DavidThe Strait of Hormuz. Let's start there.

MayaTwo oil tankers just got hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did it, according to the UAE.

DavidTwo vessels tied to Abu Dhabi's state oil company. Fox News reported that morning, citing UAE officials.

MayaAnd Iran's not really denying it. Their statement said the strait remains blocked until their conditions are met.

DavidWhich is, I mean, what exactly? Nobody's spelled that out.

MayaNot yet, no. Meanwhile, Trump says the US is in what he calls total control of the waterway.

DavidWhich is, I mean, a pretty big claim for water that just got shot at.

MayaRight. And now he's saying he'll declare the whole strait US territory soon, according to Al Jazeera.

DavidSoon meaning after Iran's defeated. That's the actual wording. DW's Karl Sexton had that too.

MayaSo it's contingent, not happening this week.

DavidWhich tells you it's a threat, not a policy rollout. You don't file paperwork on a maritime chokepoint. You threaten to claim it and see what Tehran does.

MayaOkay, but why does Iran even want the strait closed? A fifth of the world's oil moves through there.

DavidSo who actually benefits from chaos in Hormuz? Not global buyers. Oil spikes hurt everyone, Iran's customers included. But Tehran gets negotiating weight. Every tanker hit is a message. We can make this expensive for you.

MayaAnd it is expensive.

DavidMm-hmm.

MayaShipping insurers are already pricing in war risk for anything crossing Hormuz. That premium lands on fuel costs.

DavidWhich lands at the pump. Trump told Americans this week to just accept higher gas prices. DW quoted him saying it directly.

MayaNot usually what a president says out loud during a gas price fight.

DavidNo, but it's honest. Close a route that carries a fifth of the world's oil, and it shows up on your receipt whether anyone announces it or not.

MayaCan he actually do it, though, declare a strait that belongs to Iran and Oman as US territory?

DavidLegally, there's no real mechanism for that. Practically, it's a signal that tells Tehran the posture isn't softening.

MayaFollow the money, follow the flag, I guess.

DavidSomething like that.

MayaSwitching gears, unfortunately. Overnight, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit off Flores, Indonesia.

DavidAt least two dead so far, according to Al Jazeera's reporting this morning.

MayaCNN had residents describing buildings shaking, people running into the street in the middle of the night.

DavidWith a quake that size, aftershocks are basically guaranteed for days.

MayaSearch and rescue crews are still working.

DavidWow.

MayaThat toll's expected to climb.

DavidYeah. Rough morning for that part of the world.

MayaIndonesia sits right on the Ring of Fire, so this isn't a one-off.

DavidNo, but a 7.7 is on the higher end. That's enough to do real damage, even in reinforced buildings.

MayaIt's something. This week, we've got a president talking about claiming a foreign strait.

DavidAnd asking the Supreme Court about something a lot closer to home.

MayaIf soon is the timeline for owning a piece of ocean, what's the rush look like when it's his own backyard?

DavidSpeaking of turf grabs, here's a smaller one closer to home.

MayaOh no, here we go. What now?

DavidThe White House ballroom. Trump's asking the Supreme Court to let construction keep going while the appeal plays out.

MayaWait, the $400 million one?

DavidThat's the one. AP News reporters Michael Kunzelman and Lindsay Whitehurst say Chief Justice Roberts gave the challengers until Tuesday to respond.

MayaWow. So basically, build now, argue later.

DavidPretty much. And I keep coming back to who's actually paying for it. Donors, not taxpayers, allegedly. Follow the money on that one, and you find some interesting names.

MayaI mean, a little on brand for this administration.

DavidEmergency docket for a ballroom.

MayaOkay, something heavier now. Sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln.

DavidYeah, I saw this.

MayaNine months deployed, and Axios reported families were raising alarms about conditions on board.

DavidMm-hmm.

MayaTrump brushed it off.

DavidThe New York Times had a similar rundown tying some of the strain back to attacks on a US base early in the war.

MayaNine months is a long deployment. I don't think that's a media pile-on invention.

DavidNo, but the timing helps critics too. Both things can be happening.

MayaRight. The readiness question doesn't go away just because he says it's fine.

DavidSpeaking of dismissing things, Luigi Mangione.

MayaYeah, he pled guilty to federal stalking charges today tied to the killing of the UnitedHealthcare CEO, Brian Thompson. CNN's Lauren Valle and the team covered the hearing.

DavidStill stuns me how much online support he's gotten.

MayaMm-hmm. It does. And I'll say it plainly, there's nothing to admire in an assassination. The fan accounts, the merchandise, the folk hero framing, it's disturbing.

DavidAgreed. No gray area there.

MayaSpeaking of which, last one. Trump was out stumping in the New York suburbs.

DavidRight, and The Washington Post piece on it basically says great for the base, rough everywhere else.

MayaThat's diplomatic.

DavidHe fires up the core voters, sure, but those swing districts are exactly where House Republicans need to hold seats next cycle.

MayaSo a rally that fires up the base might cost them the majority.

DavidNobody on that stage says it out loud, but it's the math Republicans have to live with.

MayaPoliticians dismissing inconvenient numbers. Noticing a pattern today. COVID's ticking back up this summer.

DavidEvery year, like clockwork.

MayaPretty much. NPR's Rob Stein reported cases are climbing again, even with everything else grabbing headlines right now.

DavidNew variant or just-

MayaMm-hmm

David... the usual summer travel and AC-blasted indoor gatherings?

MayaMostly the usual pattern, waning immunity plus travel season. Nothing that says lockdown.

DavidWait, do we know if this one's nastier or just louder?

MayaRob Stein's piece didn't flag anything worse. Standard seasonal drift, no new symptoms to worry about.

DavidSo what do people actually do with that?

MayaCheck if your home tests are expired, and if you're older or immunocompromised, this week's a decent time to ask about a booster.

DavidLow-key precaution.

MayaExactly. No need to spiral, just don't ignore the scratchy throat. Before I forget, good news on the health front. A Stanford study covered by Fox News' Melissa Rudy looked at menopause treatment and Alzheimer's risk.

DavidYeah?

MayaWomen on estrogen-only hormone therapy showed thirty-five percent lower Alzheimer's markers were brain and thirty-nine percent lower odds of dementia.

DavidThose numbers are strong.

MayaThey are, but it's estrogen only, usually just women who've had a hysterectomy, which is different from the combo therapy most menopausal women actually take.

DavidSo the moral is don't self-prescribe off a podcast.

MayaCorrect. But it's a promising sign for a treatment already prescribed for other reasons.

DavidSpeaking of things people should watch, has anyone noticed tech CEOs won't stop publishing giant essays about AI instead of fixing their own products?

MayaOh, the manifestos.

DavidMark Zuckerberg just dropped another one. BBC's Lily Jamali covered it, thousands of words on Meta's AI vision.

MayaMeanwhile?

DavidMeanwhile, Business Insider's Thibault Spirlet reported Claude subscribers are canceling over Anthropic's new AI watermark. Developers worried it'll flag their work as machine-made to clients.

MayaSo one company writes philosophy while the other's customers are hitting cancel.

DavidWrite the essay, skip the decision that's actually costing you subscribers.

MayaIf you're annoyed by that watermark, email Anthropic support directly. Companies notice canceled subscriptions faster than they notice ten-thousand-word memos.

DavidThat's the move.

MayaSo that's the Rundown. Tankers hit in Hormuz, a president talking territory, and Mangione finally entering that plea.

DavidYeah, that fan account stuff around Mangione still sits wrong with me.

MayaSame. If you take one thing from today, it's that gas prices and Washington drama are about to get tangled together.

DavidWorth watching.

MayaIf you liked the show, subscribe and leave us a review. It actually helps.

DavidTakes thirty seconds, means a lot.

MayaThanks for spending your morning with us.

DavidCatch you tomorrow.