Fireworks, Frontlines, and the Fight Over Citizenship

MayaGood morning and welcome back to the Morning Rundown.

DavidGood morning. We've got a full one today.

MayaThe full is putting it mildly. We're starting with the holiday weekend fallout,

DavidMm

Mayaincluding

David-hmm.

MayaTrump's Fourth of July speech.

DavidAnd overnight, Russia hit Kyiv really hard just hours before the NATO summit opened.

MayaPlus, China tested a missile launch from a submarine out in the South Pacific.

DavidWait, a submarine? Yeah, we need to get into that.

MayaWe will. And later, Trump's pushing NATO allies on loyalty. Beyond just spending numbers.

DavidSpeaking of which, we're also covering Congress, Speaker Johnson's moving on birthright citizenship and voter ID.

MayaPlus, a Senate primary shakeup out of Michigan that matters for 2026.

DavidThat's wild, right? All right, so much ground to cover.

MayaFile that away for now. Let's start with the weekend because it did not go quietly.

DavidNo kidding.

MayaOkay, so I woke up and just, the numbers from the weekend are rough. At least 25 people died from the heat alone.

DavidOver how many states are we talking?

MayaThe Guardian says more than 20 states hit triple digits. This heat dome basically sat on the whole eastern half of the country.

DavidThat's not a heat wave, that's a health emergency.

MayaAnd then Coney Island. Eight people shot at a Fourth of July cookout, four of them kids.

DavidFour kids?

MayaYeah, AP reported a 21-year-old woman was in critical condition, everyone else expected to survive, and that was just one of nine states with shootings that weekend.

DavidNine states on the one day we're supposed to be celebrating.

MayaI mean, come on. It's supposed to be barbecues and fireworks, not this.

DavidSo here's what struck me: with all that going on-the storms, the heat-they still ran the Mall celebration in D.C.

MayaWait, I thought they were evacuating people.

DavidThey were. The Washington Post reported officials had a plan to cancel the whole thing, and Trump overruled it.

MayaTrump just said no?

DavidYep, kept it running and then got up and gave the speech anyway.

MayaWhat did he even say with people getting soaked?

DavidNBC News covered it. He leaned into this.

MayaSo overnight, Russia hit Kyiv with basically everything. Missiles, drones, the whole arsenal. Right before NATO leaders even sat down for the summit.

DavidCBS News is reporting the death tolls at least 10 a day before the summit doors opened.

MayaTen people on a Monday. That's rough to just sit with for a second.

DavidYeah, and CBS notes every single ballistic missile Russia fired hit its target. That's the number Ukrainian officials keep pointing to. They need more Patriot interceptors fast.

MayaSo the timing wasn't subtle. Hit the Capitol, then everyone shows up to talk about backing Ukraine.

DavidThat's kind of the point, I think. Walk into the summit with a fresh crater as the backdrop.

MayaAnd it's not just Russia flexing muscle this week.

DavidOh, right. China.

MayaCBS News reported China test launched a long-range ballistic missile from a submarine out in the South Pacific.

DavidWait, from a sub? That's a different message than a land test.

MayaTotally. And CBS News says neighbors in the region already filed protests over it.

DavidEverybody's testing something this week. Missiles, patients, alliances.

MayaSpeaking of testing alliances, Trump's NATO ask.

DavidSo PBS ran a piece on NATO chief Mark Rutte, and basically Trump isn't just pushing allies on spending targets anymore.

MayaWhat's he pushing instead?

DavidLoyalty. That's the actual word being used. Not a spending number. Loyalty to the alliance itself.

MayaThat's an odd thing to have to ask for out loud.

DavidI don't think it's odd, honestly. If you're the country footing most of the bill, you'd want more than a box. Vox checked too.

MayaFair point.

DavidFollow the money on this one. The U.S. has carried an outsized share of NATO's actual defense spending for decades. Someone's funding those budgets, and it's mostly us.

MayaSo this isn't really about symbolism.

DavidNo, I'd say it's the opposite. Hitting a spending percentage on paper is easy. Showing up when it actually costs you something? That's harder to fake.

MayaAnd Reuters says he's not stopping at the group meeting either.

DavidRight, he's got one-on-ones lined up. Ukraine, Zelensky? Minsk and Syria's Al-Shara on the sidelines.

MayaTwo very different rooms to walk into back to back.

DavidDifferent leverage in each. Ukraine needs weapons. Syria needs the world to believe it's not the same country it used to be.

MayaThat's a lot riding on one summit.

DavidAnd it all circles back to the same question. Who's actually paying and what do they get for it?

MayaWhich, funny enough, is about to be the question back at home, too. Shifting gears closer to home now, Speaker Johnson's pushing to restrict birthright citizenship.

DavidYeah, he told reporters he wants Congress to move on it immediately. USA Today had that quote today.

MayaAnd the timing's kind of wild too, because polling's shifting, right?

DavidThe Bulwark's Sarah Longwell wrote about this. Voters are landing closer to Trump's position than people expected.

MayaWait, closer how?

DavidBasically, this stopped being a fringe position. It's a real debate now. Fifty-eight now, not just a talking point.

MayaThat's the part that gets lost. People assume it's settled law, case closed.

DavidRight, but the legal fight and the public opinion fight are two separate tracks, and the second one's moving.

MayaOkay, so Johnson's not exactly short on ambition this week. What else is he juggling?

DavidThe voter ID bill. CNN reported he's pushing it through budget reconciliation.

MayaIsn't that the process where a few Republicans already revolted?

DavidThat's exactly it. CNN said Johnson sent everyone home. He came home early after some GOP members stalled the floor.

MayaSo he's downplaying the drama and just trying again?

DavidPretty much—arduous was the word CNN used—he knows it's a grind; he's doing it anyway.

MayaI mean, come on; reconciliation is already a headache on a good day.

DavidFollow the incentive, though: voter ID polls well with the base; he's not walking away from that.

MayaAll right, one more, and this one actually surprised me.

DavidThe Michigan Senate race?

MayaMallory McMorrow dropped out. The Guardian had it. She's out of the primary entirely.

DavidHuh, that's a name Democrats were counting on.

MayaTotally—now it's just El-Sayed, the progressive, versus Stevens, who's more centrist.

DavidWhich turns a three way scramble into a real ideological fight for the party.

MayaIn a seat they can't afford to lose, no less.

DavidRight, that's not a small primary anymore, that's a preview of where Democrats actually stand.

MayaSo, between citizenship, voter ID, and Michigan, none of this is going away quietly.

DavidNot even close-these are the fights that'll define next year's ballots.

MayaAnd we'll be right here watching every twist.

DavidOh, for sure. Buckle up.

MayaOkay, so today we sat with some heavy stuff. The heat deaths, Coney Island,

DavidAnd Kyiv right before NATO even opened its doors.

Mayayeah. But also Trump refusing to let a storm canceled a Fourth.

DavidFollow the incentive, like I said.

MayaYou did say that.

DavidHonestly, the real takeaway is this. Leaders make choices about optics, whether it's a mall speech or a NATO summit.

MayaExactly. So if you liked digging into that with us,

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MayaWe read every single one.

DavidAppreciate you starting the Morning with us.

MayaWe'll see you tomorrow for the next Rundown.