Digger's $245 Million Hole, Russell Brand's Trial, and the Guilfoyle Allegations

MayaOkay, picture a movie that cost a fortune, and the theater is so empty you could practice your golf swing in the aisle.

DavidWait, are we talking about the same movie?

MayaProbably. Big budget, big problems. Plus, a trial that's just getting started and a political story that's still moving.

DavidSo a normal Monday.

MayaTotally. I'm Maya, and this is the Morning Rundown with David.

DavidHi. I'll be the one rolling his eyes at the studio accountants.

MayaThree stories today: the movie money mess, the Russell Brand trial, and the Guilfoyle allegations.

DavidWhich one's the most cheerful?

MayaMm, none. Zero. Not one. We'll keep it moving, but we'll be careful every time the word allegations comes up because that word matters.

DavidGood. I'd rather be boring and accurate than fast and wrong, especially when real people are named and nothing has been proven in court.

MayaLet's start with the story where the numbers are the whole story. Tom Cruise's Digger now stands to lose two hundred and forty-five million dollars.

DavidWait, really? That's the projected loss, not the budget?

MayaThe projected loss. Variety says the film fell about sixty percent in its second weekend.

DavidSixty? That's a cliff, not a slope.

MayaAnd the BBC ran with the same drop, saying it could become one of Hollywood's biggest flops, which is a big club to try to join.

DavidWhy does the second weekend matter so much though? Isn't the opening the big number?

MayaThe opening tells you who showed up on day one. The second weekend tells you whether anyone kept showing up. A drop of about sixty percent is the answer to that second question, and it's not a happy one.

DavidRight. So what's the actual take so far?

MayaFourteen point four million domestic. Worldwide, about thirty-five million.

DavidHm, and it opens to what?

MayaEight million domestic for a Tom Cruise movie.

DavidOh, ouch.

MayaPut those side by side. Fourteen point four million domestic is less than double that eight million opening.

DavidSo the film isn't building. It's mostly just the opening with a little added on top.

MayaThat's one way to read it. Here's the part that's actually reported. Variety's projection has it finishing near fifty million worldwide.

DavidWhich is about fifteen million more than the thirty-five it has now by simple subtraction.

MayaRight, and remember, that's the finish line they're projecting, not a floor.

DavidSo picture the money going out the door and fifty million coming back. That's not a dent, it's a crater.

MayaDigger digging. I mean, come on. The title wrote the joke for us.

DavidDon't. But here's a wrinkle I like. Warner Brothers had earlier expected a loss of one hundred and fifty to two hundred million.

MayaSo it's already worse than their own forecast.

DavidSo somewhere between forty-five and ninety-five million dollars if you subtract the old range from the new number. That's a big miss for a forecast.

MayaAnd a forecast is supposed to be the studio's own best guess. Okay, so now the part that gets people arguing.

DavidRight, and then there's break even. Variety says the film needs about three hundred and fifty million to break even.

MayaAnd Warner Brothers says no.

DavidA Warner Brothers spokesperson disputes that and says it's three hundred million.

MayaFifty million apart. That's a lot of movie.

DavidHere's what jumps out at me though. Even at the studio's lower number, fifty million coming back is only about a sixth of three hundred.

MayaSo the argument is over how deep the hole is, and neither number makes it shallow.

DavidOkay, follow the money for a second. Whose number is it, and who likes the lower one?

MayaThe studio, obviously. A lower break even makes the hole look shallower.

DavidMaybe, or Variety's higher number makes the story bigger. Everybody has a reason to prefer a number.

MayaFair, but I'm not gonna guess at motives here. We've got two figures and two names attached to them.

DavidTotally, and notice nobody's disputing that it's a flop. They're arguing about how deep.

MayaThat's the most Hollywood fight possible. Not whether it's bad, just how bad.

DavidWhat I keep coming back to is that none of these numbers are final. The projection could move, and so could the break even argument.

MayaRight, and that's why we keep saying projected and reported. Those words are doing real work.

DavidThe BBC's headline also says another film is struggling at the box office too, so this isn't only one movie having a rough stretch.

MayaWhich is a useful reminder that one flop is one flop. We're not going to build a theory about the whole industry out of it.

DavidAgreed. Variety also covers the budget and marketing spend, so there's more behind that number if you wanna go read it.

MayaWhich I will with more coffee. Anyway, that's the money story, and a box office loss is a bad week for a studio.

DavidSpeaking of bad weeks, we're about to go somewhere with much heavier stakes.

MayaYeah, from a box office loss to a courtroom where the facts are still to be tested. Okay, the courtroom. Russell Brand, who is fifty-one, arrived at Southwark Crown Court in London on Monday for day one of his trial.

DavidHow long are we talking?

MayaNBC News reported it's expected to run ten to twelve weeks. That's a long haul.

DavidHm, and AP News had him showing up at the court for the opening of the trial, so it's real, it's underway.

MayaRight, and before anything else, we need to be careful with the language here. He has pleaded not guilty.

DavidTo all of it.

MayaTo all of it. NBC lists three counts of rape, three counts of sexual assault, and one count of indecent assault. Those are allegations. Nothing has been proven.

DavidTotally. Seven counts, and a jury hasn't weighed any of them yet.

MayaYeah. Now the charges came in two waves. The Yahoo report on the trial lays it out. The April 2025 charges involve four women with alleged incidents between 1999 and 2005.

DavidSo that's a long stretch of time.

MayaIt is. Then in December 2025, there were charges involving two further women, and those alleged incidents date to 2009.

DavidOkay, so who decides?

MayaA jury of twelve people. Brand is on bail while this plays out.

DavidHmm. And what actually happens first? Because I think people picture opening day as fireworks.

MayaNot really. Yahoo's report says day one is mainly jury selection. Opening arguments are tentatively set for Wednesday.

DavidTentatively. So that could shift.

MayaIt could. Schedules in a big trial are rarely carved in stone.

DavidHmm. So this week is basically about getting 12 people in the box.

MayaRight. And with 10 to 12 weeks expected, this won't resolve in a news cycle. Neither of us is going to guess where it lands.

DavidQuiet moment, I think. Then we move on to a different story with its own set of allegations.

MayaYeah. This one's in Washington, and it may be headed for a decision. Okay, Washington. CBS News reported that a donor named Eric Deters says Kimberly Guilfoyle, the US ambassador to Greece, asked her to wire her $100,000.

DavidFor what exactly?

MayaTo pay her American Express bill before her confirmation hearing. And according to Deters, the deal was help reaching the Trump administration in return.

DavidWait, really? A credit card bill?

MayaThat's the allegation. And she denies it flat out. So everything we say here is alleged. Nothing's proven.

DavidRight. Which matters because a donor saying something and a court finding something are two very different animals. I mean, come on, donors have motives too.

MayaTotally. But CBS added a detail that's hard to wave off. It reported that sources told White House officials the text messages were real.

DavidSources, not named, not confirmed by us.

MayaRight. That's CBS's reporting attributed to sources, and we can't verify it from here.

DavidFair. Still, if I'm the White House, I'm not enjoying that phone call.

MayaNobody enjoys that phone call.

DavidAnd there's more. NewsNation, citing a Wall Street Journal report, says senior Trump administration officials are discussing her future.

MayaDiscussing her future. That's the polite version of it.

DavidAlways is. The report says a decision from the president is expected soon.

MayaSoon like this week or soon like Washington soon?

DavidDon't know. The report doesn't say, so I won't guess.

MayaSmart. What else is in there?

DavidNew claims that Greek businessmen paid for her luxury travel. Reported, unconfirmed.

MayaHold on. Businessmen from the country she's supposed to be representing us in?

DavidThat's what the claim is. And the same coverage describes a government watchdog probe.

MayaHmm. Okay.

DavidLook, this is where a lot of folks on the right get frustrated, and honestly, they should. Whoever's in power, the insider favor economy's the same: pay, access, a friendly ear. If any of this holds up, it deserves scrutiny from her own side first.

MayaAgreed. And if it doesn't hold up, she should get to say so and be believed.

DavidRight.

MayaMeanwhile, Hollywood is having a heyday. Variety wrote that John Oliver gleefully mocked her over all this on Last Week Tonight.

DavidOf course he did.

MayaEx-girlfriend of Donald Jr., current ambassador. Variety's description, not mine. That's a lot of material for a late-night guy.

DavidIt writes itself, but a punchline isn't evidence.

MayaTrue. So what do we watch for?

DavidFirst, that presidential decision. Second, whether anyone besides sources and donors goes on the record. And third, whether the watchdog probe produces anything public.

MayaGood list. We'll keep an eye on it.

DavidYep.

MayaOkay. That's the rundown for today, David. Time to wrap it up. Okay, so the through line, money, accountability, and a lot of things still unproven. A movie lost a fortune, and that part is just arithmetic.

DavidRight. Digger's number is a projection, Brand's trial is just getting its jury, and the Washington story is still a set of reports.

MayaDifferent stories, same through line. Thanks for spending the morning with us.

DavidAnd that's the rundown. Come back tomorrow.