Week 44: The Morning After Plan

MaxThe people who write the December spending deal might be the exact people voters fire on Tuesday, or rehire. Nobody in that building knows which.

BlakeWhich makes them lame ducks either way, Max, just with different quacks.

MaxOkay, that's going on a mug.

BlakeHold on. We should say who we are first.

MaxRight. I'm Max, that's Blake, and this is The Common Thread, where we read the boring documents so your group chat doesn't have to.

BlakeElection Day is Tuesday. Forecasters give Democrats a strong shot at the House and a better than even shot at the Senate.

MaxAnd we're not predicting any of it.

BlakeNot a word. Forecasts are a coin with a nice font.

MaxOuch.

BlakeWe're planning instead. Whoever holds the pen on November fourth is a lame duck, and the incentives for everyone in the building flip depending on the result.

MaxFlip how, though? Because people say lame duck like it means nothing happens, and I don't think that's right.

BlakeOh, that's the fun part. Some people get more patient, and some get more desperate, but you can't see the flip without the clock.

MaxFirst, the calendar everyone is about to inherit. Okay, so the stopgap. The Senate extended last year's funding to December eleventh, and the Senate passed it ninety to six.

BlakeNinety to six? That's not a fright. That's a group hug.

MaxAnd the House went three seventy to forty-eight. Harvard's Office for Federal Relations wrote it up in September, and the point they make is that it dodged pre-election shutdown brinksmanship.

BlakeWhich sounds great. Nobody wanted a shutdown a few weeks before voting.

MaxRight. But the decisions about next year's budget didn't vanish. They got pushed into the lame duck.

BlakeHold on. So the big vote was a vote to not vote yet?

MaxBasically, yes. A very popular way of saying later.

BlakeAnd what's waiting on the other side?

MaxThe December deadline itself, the defense authorization bill for next year, the farm bill, and maybe a third reconciliation package.

BlakeMaybe a third. That's a lot of weight on a few weeks of work, and a few weeks is not much room.

MaxIt gets thicker. A Holland & Knight analysis calls December eleventh the key date and says other things pile up around it: the flood insurance program, surface transportation, parts of the farm bill.

BlakeFlood insurance.

MaxYep, and the Community Health Center fund expires December thirty-first.

BlakeOh, man, so a health clinic in a small town is sitting behind a Senate calendar fight.

MaxThat's the normal person version. Think of your own December: rent due, the car registration, the school fundraiser, the relatives arriving. Now imagine every bill lands the same week, and you're changing jobs.

BlakeFine, but I want to question the comfort in all this. The consensus view is that Congress would just get it done after the election. Everybody says the pressure clears the air.

MaxYou don't buy it.

BlakeI want to know where that comes from. WilmerHale's lawyers wrote that post-election sessions often promise more than they deliver.

MaxThey did, but they also said this year's session could be different.

BlakeCould. That's a hedge, Max, not a forecast, and the No Labels rundown reads like a to-do list with a due date next to every line.

MaxA long list, though. Government funding, the defense bill, the farm bill. It's all one pile.

BlakeRight, and a pile has a problem. Whatever you decide first eats the time for everything else. That's the part the comforting story leaves out.

MaxPlus, there's a menu on the funding piece. One big omnibus, smaller minibuses, another stopgap into early next year, or letting some agencies lapse.

BlakeLetting them lapse is a choice somebody has to make on purpose. Nobody gets to shrug and say it just happened to them.

MaxAnd who makes it depends on what happens Tuesday. With the calendar set, the real question is what each outcome does to the people holding the pen.

BlakeThen give me the first one.

MaxOkay. Outcomes. Newsweek ran a poll roundup ten days out, and it says Democrats are favored to take the House.

BlakeFavored, not locked.

MaxRight. But the same piece says eight tight Senate races could decide control of Congress. Eight.

BlakeThat's a lot of coin flips stacked in one room.

MaxAnd the Senate math is tighter than people think. The AP says Republicans hold fifty-three seats and can lose no more than three and still keep control.

BlakeBecause the vice president breaks ties.

MaxVance, yes. So lose three, you're at fifty/fifty, and he's the tiebreaker.

BlakeHmm. Lose a fourth, and that's gone.

MaxNow the cliff itself. Holland & Knight lays out the menu for December. One option is an omnibus or minibuses. Another is a CR into early twenty twenty-seven. The third is letting some agencies lapse.

BlakeFine. Now from here, it's us talking, not a source. This is our reasoning, and you can argue with it.

MaxPlease do. Scenario one, Democrats win both chambers.

BlakeThen Republicans who are about to lose the pen have a reason to finish, and Democrats have a reason to wait. Why cut a deal in December when you write your own in January?

MaxSo the CR into early twenty twenty-seven gets much more likely.

BlakeMuch. The omnibus gets less likely because the side with the leverage coming doesn't want to sign the old terms.

MaxOh, but the outgoing side might want one last omnibus to lock things in.

BlakeThey might want it. They'd need the vote, and the incoming majority has no reason to give them.

MaxSo who actually feels the pressure in that world?

BlakeMostly the outgoing side. They lose the most by waiting because every week of delay moves the pen closer to the other party's hand. The incoming side can afford to be patient, and patience is a form of leverage. That's inference, but it's the logic of the thing.

MaxFair. Scenario two, split Congress.

BlakeEveryone gets a veto, so nobody gets to wait it out. Neither side has a clean win coming.

MaxWhich pushes toward minibuses.

BlakeMinibuses, yes. Some bills get done because both sides can claim something. The omnibus goes up.

MaxBut not a sure thing.

BlakeNo, no. Some agencies lapsing also stays on the table because a split result tends to harden the fight over who blinked.

MaxWhy would lapsing be tempting if everyone already has a veto?

BlakeBecause when neither side can force the other, letting a deadline pass can look like the only way to show your voters you didn't cave. Again, that's our reasoning, not reporting, and it's the scenario where a lapse is most a choice instead of an accident.

MaxScenario three: Republicans hold both.

BlakeHere, the incentive flips again. The pen stays where it is, so there's less reason to wait and more reason to finish.

MaxOmnibus gets the biggest bump there.

BlakeIn my view, yes. A CR will still be the easy fallback, but with no change coming, there's no reason to punt.

MaxDoes finishing mean the result is any good, though?

BlakeNo. Finishing and finishing well are different things. A big omnibus can be a fast, unread pile. We're talking about incentives, not quality.

MaxSo waiting only pays when the other side is about to take over.

BlakeWhen waiting buys something, people wait. When it doesn't, they finish. That's our read. And again, it's analysis.

MaxAnd that's the weak spot in any of these maps.

BlakeRight. Each scenario needs a declared winner before anyone can act on the incentive. Waiting only pays if you know who you're waiting for.

MaxUh-oh.

BlakeWhat else?

MaxWhat if we don't? Okay, so picture Wednesday morning. Polls closed, coffee's cold, and the Senate is just unanswered.

BlakeWhich the cable panels are skipping. They want a winner by bedtime.

MaxRight. But Senate control could hang in limbo for weeks after election day, and the funding clock does not pause for that.

BlakeNo?

MaxNot for a minute. Oh, man, and Georgia is the obvious candidate to make it ugly.

BlakeWalk me through that. Georgia, how?

MaxA secondary explainer called Congress Countdown says that no Georgia Senate candidate wins a majority on November 3rd, a runoff is set for December 1st, 2026.

BlakeHold on. Secondary source. I'd want the state election officials to confirm that date before anybody puts it on a calendar.

MaxFair, and everyone should check it. But the same explainer notes Georgia decided Senate control by runoff in both 2021 and 2022.

BlakeTwice. So this isn't some exotic hypothetical.

MaxExactly. It's a thing that has already happened to that state back to back.

BlakeOkay. And what if nobody wins a majority but the race is just razor-close? Does a recount fix it?

MaxAP's decision notes for Georgia say there's no automatic recount. A candidate can request one if the margin is half a percent or less.

BlakeRequest. So somebody has to ask.

MaxSomebody has to ask, and AP says it may call a race that's subject to a recount if the lead is too big for a recount to change it.

BlakeHmm. So a call could come even with the recount hanging around.

MaxRight. But in a tight one, nobody gets that call.

BlakeWonderful. Weeks of suspense.

MaxNow, here's my own math, and it's inference, not reporting. Say a runoff lands December 1st. The funding deadline is December 11th.

BlakeThat's 10 days.

Max10 days. Everybody in the building knows the Senate's real majority gets settled with barely a week and a half left.

BlakeAnd who has leverage in those 10 days? My read is whoever's willing to let the clock run out. Waiting is cheap when nobody can say who's in charge.

MaxAnd the leadership sitting there has no clear mandate. Voters spoke, but the answer isn't in.

BlakeSo how does a lame duck leader cut a deal while the room is still deciding who they work for?

MaxCarefully or not at all, which is probably a problem.

BlakeLet's push on that. In limbo, what does leadership posture look like? Do you negotiate hard or hedge?

MaxMy guess, and it's only a guess, is hedge. If you might be the majority leader in January, you don't want to lock in terms you'd hate. If you might be in the minority, you want a deal done before you lose the room. Hedging is the natural move when your own job title is up in the air.

BlakeSo both sides could have a reason to stall and a reason to rush at the same time.

MaxExactly. Which is why I'd call it unstable rather than just gridlocked. And the committee side is murkier still. Nobody can plan who chairs what until the Senate settles, and that's inference, too. Neither is great for a deadline.

BlakeHmm. And that December date isn't even the only one hanging over this.

MaxNo. While control is unsettled, a deadline that has already passed is quietly waiting.

BlakeSection 702.

MaxSection 702, surveillance authority. It already lapsed on June 12th.

BlakeAlready. Past tense, and yet nobody's running through the streets.

MaxBecause it still works, for now. The Hill reported that it runs only on its FISA court certifications.

BlakeMeaning the engine's idling on leftover gas.

MaxPretty much. Those certifications expire March 27th.

BlakeThat's the date I'd circle. Not December, March.

MaxBut March isn't the working deadline. Intelligence officials want Congress to act by Thanksgiving.

BlakeWhy Thanksgiving if the certifications last into March?

MaxRecertification takes time. They want room to do it before the lights flicker.

BlakeOh, man, so the real deadline is a turkey dinner, and we're talking about a Senate that might not know who's in charge by then.

MaxDon't stack those on me.

BlakeI'm only reading the calendar.

MaxFair. Now, here's the part that surprised me. The Hill piece says Democratic support has dropped.

BlakeDropped how far?

Max42 Democrats backed the House three-year bill.

BlakeOut of how many?

MaxThe article gives the number only as a comparison. In 2024, it was 147.

BlakeWait, from one forty-seven to forty-two?

MaxYeah, yeah. That's a collapse.

BlakeHmm. So the bipartisan cushion that carried this before is mostly gone.

MaxAnd that's before anybody counts the election.

BlakeOkay, Max, here's what bugs me. Why does a lapsed authority feel like no emergency?

MaxBecause nothing visibly breaks. No shutdown, no checks bouncing, no closed parks.

BlakeRight, and that's the trap. When the cost is invisible, waiting looks free to everybody.

MaxSo where does the election come in?

BlakeThink about it as a constitutional question. Section seven-oh-two is a power Congress grants and can condition. If Democrats win a majority, a member who has doubts about warrantless collection may see more value in holding out for changes than in rubber-stamping before January.

MaxSo waiting becomes more attractive.

BlakeIt could. I'm not predicting votes, just describing the incentive. A new majority gets a stronger hand on the terms by simply running out the clock.

MaxBut the outgoing side sees the same clock and wants it done now.

BlakeExactly. Same calendar, opposite instincts, and the people who would pay for a miss are the analysts who need that authority renewed on time.

MaxIs there a constitutional reason this matters beyond the calendar?

BlakeI think so, and this is our view, not a legal ruling. A power that has to be renewed is supposed to force a vote in the open with names attached. When it lapses and keeps running on court certifications, that vote quietly doesn't happen. Limited government means a grant of power gets reaffirmed on purpose, not left to coast.

MaxSo coasting is almost the opposite of what the renewal is for.

BlakeRight, and either party can fall into it. Whoever is comfortable with the status quo is happy to let it drift because drifting takes no vote and nobody owns the outcome. I'd rather have a hard vote on the record than a quiet drift, whoever wins Tuesday.

MaxSurveillance is one item on a bigger pile. Okay, the farm bill's expired, the debt limit is out there, and there's a reconciliation push.

BlakeAnd the creator brief for this show lists all three as items whose fate hangs on the election result.

MaxRight.

BlakeI'll flex something. Our sources give no debt limit dates or dollar figures, so I'm not going to invent a deadline for you.

MaxFair. Qualitatively then, it's a fight where the winner Tuesday decides who has leverage.

BlakeThat's the debt limit's whole personality. Nobody wants to own a vote on it, so it tends to ride along with whatever else is moving. That's our read, not a figure from any source.

MaxAnd a reconciliation push is a different flavor. It's what a majority reaches for when it wants to move without the other side. Who holds the majority after Tuesday decides whether that's even on the table. Again, our inference.

BlakeMm. Farmers don't care about leverage, though. An expired farm bill means they plan next season without knowing the rules.

MaxOh, man, that one stings. Think of a kitchen table: mortgage, car payment, daycare, insurance renewal, and every bill is stamped the same Friday.

BlakeHeh. I know that table.

MaxYou can't pay them all, so you shuffle. Drop the farm bill on that table, throw a possible reconciliation package on top, and now somebody's lights go out.

BlakeWho decides which bill gets paid?

MaxWhoever blinks last, and the table gets worse when you can't tell who's sitting at the head of it.

BlakeSure. Every lame duck arrives with a wish list. WilmerHale said this session could be different, but nobody has touched the farm bill.

MaxPlainly, that's delay dressed as a decision. They picked the calendar over the vote.

BlakeAnd I'd say the same on whichever side of the aisle you sit.

MaxNo argument. Both parties had months to move the farm bill.

BlakeMonths. And the debt limit and the reconciliation fight don't get easier by sitting. Every week we spend not choosing is a week the pile gets taller, and the voters don't get to see who chose what.

MaxSo what is the single thread running through all of this? Okay, so the thread. Congress had a choice in September: settle FY twenty-seven before the voters weighed in or hand it to whoever shows up in December.

BlakeAnd they chose the second.

MaxEvery time. The stopgap pushed those decisions into the lame duck instead of resolving them first.

BlakeWhich means the people who duck the hard votes might be gone by the time the bill is due or back with a fresh mandate they never asked for.

MaxEither way, somebody inherits the mess on a clock.

BlakeMm, and that's my accountability problem. If I can't tell who owned the delay, I can't reward or punish anybody for it.

MaxFair, but the twenty twenty-seven policy window is the prize. Whatever gets settled in December decides what the new Congress even gets to start with.

BlakeRight. So plain rule, plan for three outcomes, not one.

MaxThree. Not a prediction, a spread. Democrats sweep, split Congress, Republicans hold both, and a plan for each of them on the shelf before Tuesday night.

BlakeWhere do you give leadership credit, Max?

MaxPassing the stopgap by wide margins. Keeping the lights on was the adult move. I'll give them that.

BlakeI'd give them credit there, too, grudgingly. What I won't credit is treating that as the finish line. A funding patch that buys time is a patch, and nobody gets a medal for the part they postponed.

MaxOuch. That one's going on the mug too.

BlakeWhere I'd give them credit later is if they name a plan before the results instead of after.

MaxSo never then.

BlakeNah, I'm an optimist about weird things.

MaxNow the one thing you can do this week. Okay, so the action. Call or email your own House member and both your senators this week.

BlakeAnd ask two things: What do they want done by December eleventh, and where do they stand on Section seven-oh-two?

MaxTwo questions takes five minutes. They're not trick questions, so a straight answer tells you plenty.

BlakeLess if you write them down first. Staff keep a tally of what constituents raise, so a short message counts.

MaxHeh. Blake, you've already drafted yours, haven't you?

BlakeBy hand, obviously.

MaxOf course. Then do the rest of it. Send this episode to one person who'd never sit through a cable panel.

BlakeEven a dodge tells the office someone is watching the calendar.

MaxSubscribe, and we'll be back Saturday with whatever Tuesday throws at us.

BlakePattern, one line: The deadlines don't move, and the people holding them might.

MaxYour town needs you in the room, Max. Same for everyone listening. Show up.