Prop 40: Who Fills LA's $20M Buyer Gap?

JordynOkay, so get this. Larry Page just dropped $101.5 million in a Miami mega-mansion.

DavidWhoa, that's not a house. That's a zip code.

JordynBanyan Ridge, four and a half acres, 13 bedrooms, its own private dock. Google money doesn't do modest.

DavidAnd he's not even the only one. Brin's out there too.

JordynRight. Combined, it's real money leaving California soil.

DavidNothing says, "I'm fleeing a tax," like a private dock.

JordynThis is Listing Price. I'm Jordyn.

DavidI'm David. And Jordyn, nine episodes.

JordynNine straight episodes on ULA, all seller side, all here's what it costs to sell.

DavidZero on who's actually writing the check.

JordynExactly. Somebody's buying the $20 million-plus stuff in this town, and we've never once asked who.

DavidSo if the Pages and the Brins are packing for Florida-

JordynAnd the Thiel crowd's eyeing Nevada-

DavidWho's left standing in Bel Air with a checkbook?

JordynThat's the mystery we're chasing today.

DavidAnd it's not just idle curiosity. Nobody's actually run the numbers on who fills that gap.

JordynWhich is exactly why we're doing it this week instead of serving up ULA rundown number 10.

DavidBefore we get there, though, we've got a tax to sort out.

JordynRight. Before we get to who's buying, let's get straight on what this thing actually does because the headlines and the ballot language are not telling the same story. So the ballot language. Prop 40 qualified for November 3rd, and it's one time, a nickel on every dollar for anyone who was a billionaire on January 1st, 2026.

DavidOne time, not annual?

JordynOne-time, due in 2027, but the LAO's office says you can spread it out over five years if you want.

DavidWait, so it's not a wealth tax forever. It's a single haircut.

JordynA single 5% haircut. Yeah. And here's the part that matters for this show. Real estate is carved out. Your house doesn't count toward the number.

DavidNeither do pensions or retirement accounts, right?

JordynRight. Those are excluded too. It's aimed at stock, at founder equity, at the stuff that made these guys billionaires in the first place.

DavidSo the mansion itself isn't the target.

JordynNope. The mansion's just where the money that avoids the tax ends up living.

DavidOkay, that's a little poetic for a Tuesday.

JordynI contain multitudes. But seriously, the LAO says this thing could raise tens of billions, and it's mostly earmarked for healthcare.

DavidTens of billions is a huge range.

JordynIt is, because nobody knows exactly how many billionaires stay put long enough to get taxed, which plot twist is kind of the whole fight.

DavidWait, so nothing actually happens right away. This thing doesn't kick in until 2027, correct?

JordynCorrect, and that gap matters for real estate specifically. Anybody who's debating whether to sell now or wait has almost a full year before a single dollar changes hands. That's not nothing when you're talking about a house that takes months to market anyway.

DavidSo no fire sale rush on Bel Air listings this fall because of Prop 40 alone.

JordynNot from this alone. The pressure builds a lot slower than the headlines make it sound, and the five-year installment option stretches it out even further for anyone who qualifies.

DavidWhich changes the calculation for a lot of people who might have panicked back in July.

JordynExactly. This isn't a cliff. It's a slope.

DavidThis is a union-backed initiative, isn't it?

JordynA California union is behind it, funding healthcare, and it has drawn some very loud, very specific enemies.

DavidNewsoms not a fan.

JordynNewsoms come out against it, and so has a chunk of Silicon Valley, which sure, of course they have.

DavidShocking. Billionaires don't love the billionaire tax.

JordynI know. Groundbreaking journalism over here. But it tells you the fight isn't theoretical anymore. It's on the ballot. It's got institutional money on both sides, and it's got a real filing date.

DavidAnd it raises the question we actually care about on this show.

JordynWhich is whether this exodus story, the Florida moves, the Nevada moves, actually means the buyer pool for LA's $20 million-plus homes is shrinking.

DavidBecause if it's shrinking, Beverly Hills and Bel Air have a real problem.

JordynIf it's not shrinking, somebody else is writing those checks, and that's the question nobody's actually answered yet.

DavidOkay, so that's the mechanics. Now let's follow the money and see exactly where it's actually going.

JordynOh, you're gonna love where it lands. Okay, so Page and Brin didn't just buy one house and call it a day.

DavidNo.

JordynFortune actually mapped the whole scramble, everybody racing the January 1 cutoff.

DavidAnd it's not just those two. Zuckerberg's in there. Howard Schultz too.

JordynWait, Schultz, the coffee guy?

DavidThe coffee guy. Fortune's piece names him right alongside Zuckerberg as part of this wave.

JordynOkay, that's a name I did not expect on this list.

DavidAnd before any of them, you had Bezos, Thiel, Ken Griffin, Larry Ellison already gone.

JordynSo this isn't new behavior. It's just accelerating.

DavidRight, and here's the number that got me. Fortune is projecting this tax could actually raise $100 billion.

JordynHold on, 100 billion?

David100 billion. That's the state's own estimate blown way past. We said tens of billions last time. This is Fortune's outside number, and it's roughly the GDP of a small country.

JordynWhew. So either the state's lowballing it or Fortune is wildly optimistic.

DavidSomewhere in between probably, but it tells you how much money is actually in motion here.

JordynSpeaking of money in motion, Page and Brin didn't just buy one house each.

DavidNo. Combined, they dropped 225 million in Miami property.

JordynTwo hundred and twenty-five million between the two of them

DavidIncluding the place we already talked about.

JordynRight. We're not doing that math again.

DavidNo, we covered it, but it's the scale that matters. This is a buying spree, not a one-off.

JordynAnd it's not just Florida either.

DavidThat's the other thread. There's a realtor quoted describing accelerating ultra-high net worth moves to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe.

JordynWait, Tahoe? People are fleeing to a lake?

DavidThe Nevada side specifically. No state income tax, same lake view, just cross the line.

JordynOf course, there's a tax-free side of a literal lake.

DavidAnd Ellison's part of that story too. He sold a San Francisco mansion for forty-five million and relocated to Nevada.

JordynForty-five million. That's what? A decent Bird Street spec house at this point?

DavidPretty much. So you've got billionaires leaving in three directions: Miami, Tahoe, and wherever Ken and Griffin landed.

JordynThree different directions, same trigger. That's not three unrelated guys making unrelated decisions. That's one policy shockwave hitting people who all had the option to just leave.

DavidMost of us don't get that option, but it's worth sitting with how fast the destinations pick a lane. No state income tax is the common thread running through every single one of these moves.

JordynFlorida, Nevada, different climates, different real estate, same logic underneath.

DavidWhich tells you this was never really about Miami or Tahoe specifically. Those are just where the map happens to have zero income tax and a coastline or a lake.

JordynSo when people call it a billionaire exodus, they're describing a tax map, not a lifestyle preference.

DavidExactly. Nobody's chasing better weather here.

JordynOkay, so that's the exodus everyone's been writing about.

DavidRight.

JordynPlot twist, the buyer pool might not actually be shrinking.

DavidMeaning what?

JordynMeaning somebody's still writing checks at the top of this market, and it might not be who you think. Okay, but if the buyer pool isn't shrinking, who's actually stepping into it?

DavidThe Real Deal reported foreign buyers are flocking to LA luxury homes right through this whole tax fight.

JordynWait, while billionaires are supposedly fleeing?

DavidSame window, same market, completely different direction.

JordynWild.

DavidAnd it's not new money testing the waters. Realtor.com data showed foreign search share for LA luxury listings peaked at eighteen point two percent in December after January twenty twenty-five wildfires.

JordynWildfires drove that?

DavidScarcity does that. Fewer intact trophy homes, more people circling the ones still standing.

JordynDid that cool off at all?

DavidA little early this year.

JordynDemand dipped slightly.

DavidBut? But global buyers are still targeting the trophy stuff. The dip's a blip, not a retreat.

JordynOkay, give me a name. Whos actually writing these checks?

DavidNicole Plaxen, Sothebys. She recently toured homes with a Brazilian family carrying an Eighty million dollar budget.

JordynEighty million just to look around?

DavidJust to look, and she closed a separate deal with a Japanese investor.

JordynNot the same buyer.

DavidDifferent buyer, different continent, same price tier.

JordynSo this isn't one lucky agent catching a whale.

DavidHer overseas clients typically come in at Fifty million or more. That's her floor, not her ceiling.

JordynFifty million as a floor? I need that floor.

DavidAnd it's not one segment of overseas buyers either. Brazil, Japan, different continents, same appetite for trophy addresses.

JordynWhich makes it harder to write off as a fluke. This isn't one whale collector. It's a pattern showing up across an agent's whole client list.

DavidRight. And none of them are shopping with financing contingencies at that level. Fifty million-plus tends to mean cash, which moves faster than anything tied to a mortgage approval.

JordynSo while a seller's waiting on a domestic buyer's loan to clear, a Sotheby's agent's already got a wire ready to go.

DavidRight. And none of these buyers are subject to Prop 40. It's a California resident tax.

JordynOh, that's the part everyone keeps skipping.

DavidA Brazilian family, a Japanese investor, the tax doesn't touch them at all.

JordynSo the exodus is real for a specific list of tech names we already ran through.

DavidBut the vacuum they leave behind isn't staying empty.

JordynIt's Beverly Hills. It's Bel Air.

DavidIt's trophy inventory absorbed by people who were never gonna pay this tax in the first place.

JordynSo it's not fewer buyers at the top of the market.

DavidIt's a different passport on the buyer side.

JordynThat's almost funnier than the exodus story.

DavidIt's the same headline flipped. The billionaires leaving made the news. The families quietly closing at fifty, eighty million, that's the part nobody covers.

JordynBecause a Larry Page listing photographs better than an escrow file.

DavidSure does.

JordynSo the buyer pool isn't vanishing.

DavidIt's rotating. Different money, same addresses.

JordynWhich raises the actual question, is LA even expensive by that money's standards?

DavidThat's what I wanna check. Let's zoom out and see where LA actually sits on the national price map for buyers writing checks like that.

JordynSecond, not first. Second nationally.

DavidSecond on the whole luxury market? Who's number one?

JordynThat guide on LA luxury real estate doesn't say. It just calls us the country's second priciest market for luxury homes.

DavidSecond. Not bad for a city that just watched half its billionaires drive to the airport.

JordynRight. And that's the part that should mess with your head a little.

DavidNo neighborhood by neighborhood breakdown in that ranking, though?

JordynNope. It's a market-wide slot, not a street-level receipt. Don't ask me to rank Holmby Hills against the Bird Streets off one line in a guide.

DavidFair, but if we're the runner-up nationally, that explains a lot about why the foreign money doesn't flinch at the price tag.

JordynRight. If you're coming from New York or Hong Kong or even Aspen at ski season?

DavidLA math barely registers.

JordynExactly. Twenty million here reads like a rounding error to someone who almost bought a place in Manhattan first.

DavidSo the exodus doesn't actually touch the price floor.

JordynIt doesn't. Page and Brin packing up doesn't move LA's tier one inch. The market's still priced like it's fighting for the top spot, whoever's holding it.

DavidWhich puts the foreign buyer and the guy fleeing Prop 13 shopping the same shelf.

JordynSame shelf, different currency. One's leaving because of a tax bill. One's showing up because the exchange rate still works in their favor.

DavidDoes that mean actual competition for the same address, or are they just swapping places?

JordynMostly swapping. Inventory at the very top is thin enough that whoever's got cash ready gets first look. The seller isn't waiting around for a better offer.

DavidAnyone actually watching days on market up there, or is everything moving so fast we can't tell?

JordynThe guide doesn't break it down that granular. It's a tier ranking, and the price floor holding steady says plenty on its own.

DavidThin at the top tracks with everything we've said about Bel Air and Beverly Hills specifically.

JordynAnd it means sitting at number two isn't bragging rights. It's why nobody is cutting a check writer a discount just to keep him in the state.

DavidNo discount, just a line behind him.

JordynPretty much. You leave, somebody with a different passport is already in the driveway.

DavidFor somebody actually shopping right now, what's that mean in practice? A shorter window to decide?

JordynPretty much. If you're circling a place in the Bird Streets and hesitate a week, there's a real chance somebody else closes it first. Thin inventory doesn't wait for you to sleep on it.

DavidDoes the second-place ranking hold up even with all these departures piling up at once?

JordynA market-wide number doesn't care about any one seller's story. It's measuring the whole tier, not individual exits.

DavidSo even if every name on our list this episode moved out tomorrow-

JordynLA is still sitting at number two. The tier doesn't reshuffle because a handful of guys bought lake houses

David... which says more about the buyer pool than the sellers.

JordynIt does. Somebody's always ready to pay LA prices.

DavidAll right, so bottom line, LA holds its tier no matter whose name ends up on the wire transfer.

JordynEvery time. Ranking's settled. Now let's turn around and actually name whose name that is in 2026. So who's actually cutting the twenty million dollar checks in this market right now?

DavidThat's the real gap in the coverage. Tech money's the headline, but nobody's put a number on entertainment cash or family offices.

JordynRight. We've got Page, we've got Brin, we've got the foreign wave.

DavidBut nobody's tracking the studio heads, the producers, the private equity guys running money through an LLC.

JordynWait, so the brief admits that part's a blank?

DavidPretty much. Tech wealth pulling back, foreign capital stepping up, and entertainment plus family office money just unaccounted for. Nobody's sourced it yet.

JordynThat's wild for a market this size.

DavidIt is. And here's the other wrinkle. Not everybody's actually leaving.

JordynMeaning what?

DavidThe Legislative Analyst's Office leaves out that installment option. You can spread the tax payment over five years instead of writing one check in 2027.

JordynSo you could just stay.

DavidStay, spread it out, keep the house in Bel Air.

JordynOkay, that changes my read on this whole thing.

DavidHow so?

JordynBecause I've been treating the exodus like it's permanent. But if you can finance your way out of leaving, some of these guys were never actually going anywhere.

DavidI don't buy that moves the needle much. The ones who bought in Miami already bought.

JordynSure, but the next wave, the ones still deciding, an installment plan is a real reason to just not sell.

DavidMaybe. I still think the foreign buyer wave is doing more work here than the exodus story gets credit for.

JordynPush back on that, though. If the foreign wave is doing more work, why does every headline still lead with Page's dock and not with Plaxen's Brazilian family?

DavidBecause a coffee guy moving to Florida is a better story than an escrow closing quietly in Bel Air. That doesn't mean the escrow matters less.

JordynSure, but coverage shapes perception, and perception shapes how a seller prices a listing. If everyone thinks billionaires are the only buyers leaving, sellers might underprice for a pool that isn't actually shrinking.

DavidThat's fair. There's real money left on the table if an agent assumes the only buyer left is scared off by Prop 40.

JordynWhich is why I keep coming back to the idea that the exodus story and the buyer story need to run side by side, not one replacing the other.

DavidAgreed there. I just don't think the installment option changes enough behavior to matter as much as the foreign capital does.

JordynSee, I think we're overselling the exodus and underselling how thin this whole buyer pool actually is.

DavidFair. Twenty-plus doors a year tops across the whole city.

JordynTwenty doors, and every buyer type from this episode elbowing for a spot on the list.

DavidSuitcase cash, studio deals, installment plans, pick your fighter.

JordynAnd every one of them's getting fought over by somebody with a suitcase, a studio deal, or an installment plan now.

DavidThat's the sentence I'm putting on a T-shirt.

JordynShip it.

DavidSo that's the buy side nobody's been covering.

JordynNobody's covering it because nobody's agreed on who's actually in it.

DavidJordyn, take us out.

JordynSo who's actually signing the twenty million dollar check in 2026?

DavidSomebody with a foreign bank account and zero interest in California's ballot measures.

JordynBrutal, but fair.

DavidThe house doesn't care whose name's on the wire.

JordynTrue. Bel Air Hill still sells. Bel Air still sells.

DavidAnd the tour buses still stop at the same gates either way. Nobody's rerouting a tour route over a ballot measure.

JordynDifferent tenant, same view. That's basically the whole episode in one sentence, honestly.

DavidShouldve just led with that line and saved everyone twenty minutes.

JordynProbably. But then what would we talk about next week?

DavidJust fewer local badges on the paperwork.

JordynAll right, before we go, new episodes drop every Tuesday.

DavidFollow Listing Price wherever you're listening right now.

JordynAnd if you've got a deal or a Listing we should be covering, send it our way.

DavidWe read everything.

JordynWe do, even the weird ones.

DavidEspecially the weird ones.

JordynSee you next week.