Palisades Rebuild: The $90M Fee Waiver Bet

JordynBack to listing price. David, I've got the deal of the week. And get this, nobody's actually selling it,

DavidThat's a first for you.

Jordynright? 915 North Kagawa Street, Pacific Palisades. Just got its certificate

DavidWow.

Jordynof occupancy. The first fire rebuild in the Palisades to cross that finish line.

DavidTen months. Burnt lot to livable home in ten months.

JordynAnd it's a two-story showcase home from Thomas James Homes, sitting on a street where half the neighbors are still pouring foundation. patience.

DavidWhich is really the story of this whole episode: one house finished, 300 plus still under construction.

JordynExactly. So today we're asking what that finished house is worth compared to the raw dirt next door.

DavidAnd we're getting into Mayor Bass's fee waiver, that $90 million cap, and whether it actually moves the needle or just looks good on paper.

JordynSpoiler, David and I do not agree on that one.

DavidWe rarely do.

JordynTrue. We're also looking at whether all this permit speed is actually solving anything. thing. Or just shifting the bottleneck somewhere else.

DavidContractors, materials, insurance, the parts nobody waives the fee for.

JordynAnd by the end, we're getting into whether you're better off rebuilding from scratch or buying a finished Palisades home this year.

DavidBig questions. Let's start with the house on Kagawa.

Jordyn915 North Kagawa, first up. Okay, picture 915 North Kagawa Street. Ten months ago, ash; to day, fresh framing, a poured driveway, and the first Certificate of Occupancy issued for any Palisades fire rebuilt.

DavidAnd the builder, Thomas James Homes, is sitting there like an island, the rest of the block still empty lots.

JordynExactly." Mayor Karen Bass's office called it a "milestone," a real one.

DavidSeriously, here's the number that got me, though: once permitted, this thing went up in a Not in about six months.

JordynSix months for a from scratch rebuild after a total loss; the Thomas James CEO basically said this proves what's possible when the city and the crews move at the same speed.

DavidWhich-fair; but one house doesn't make a recovery.

JordynRight.

DavidIt's proof of concept, not proof of scale.

JordynOoh, David's not letting me have my victory lap.

DavidI'll let you have it. Thirty seconds, because behind Kagawa there are hundreds more permits stacking up. up; and none of them move without the paperwork getting cheaper and faster.

JordynOkay, real talk-that's the question I want to sit with: if the city's clearing the runway like this, what's a finished, code current house on that block worth now compared to the raw lot next door?

DavidThat's not a small gap. Land versus a done, insured, move-in ready structure: those are two completely different markets right now.

JordynOh, so which one's the smarter buy heading into the back half of the year? Here the dirt or the house that already survived the paperwork.

DavidDepends how much you trust the permit office, which, funny enough, just got a lot more interesting. Building on that timeline, the real reason six months is even possible comes down to paper, not hammers.

JordynOh, do tell!

DavidPalisades News reported yesterday that Mayor Bass signed an ordinance waiving permits and clearance fees for five fires. Palisades, Hearst, Kenneth, Archer, and Sunset. It took effect July 16th.

JordynWait, five fires? I thought this was a Palisades show.

DavidIt's citywide today, but the mechanics matter everywhere fire hit.

JordynOkay, so what's actually waived?

DavidPermit and clearance fees across Building and Safety, Fire, Planning, Public Works—gone as long as you rebuild at or below a hundred and ten percent of your original floor area.

JordynAnd if I want a bigger house than I lost?

DavidYou pay full fees on everything above that line. The Department of Building and Safety measures your original footprint-you don't get to inflate past it for free.

JordynOkay, that's actually smart. Rebuild close to what you lost, city eats the fee. Go big, you fund your own upgrade.

DavidRight." Palisades News put the estimated total waived around eighty six million dollars, with the ordinance capping relief at ninety million

JordynWow.

Davidover three years.

JordynNinety million capped. Does that reset or is that it for three years?

DavidThat's it. Once it's spent, it's spent.

JordynSo it's first come, first served on free permits.

DavidSort of, though most projects are pulling maybe fifteen, twenty grand in relief. That number's not blowing through Ninety million overnight.

JordynStill, thousands of structures burned, Ninety million split that many ways feels like a rounding error against total rebuild cost.

DavidSure, if you're pricing it against construction cost—that's not the trade the city's making, though.

JordynThen what is?

DavidThe goal is speed; Every month a lot sits empty,

JordynWrecked.

Davidthe city collects ZERO property tax on it.

Jordynversus a finished house back on the tax roll, paying again.

DavidExactly. Waive fifteen, twenty grand in fees now— Get that address paying taxes again in six months instead of two years, and a live construction market instead of a dead one.

JordynOkay, the city's math works; I'm still not sold it moves the needle for somebody staring down a million and a half dollar rebuild bill.

DavidThat's only the fee line. Total rebuild costs are separate.

JordynWhich is still real money in somebody's pocket during a brutal year.

DavidIt's a three year bet the city's making.

JordynAnd speaking of speed, that ties straight in to how into how fast permits are actually clearing right now. Okay, so the fee waivers are cool and all, but the number that actually stopped me mid-scroll is the construction count.

DavidWhich one, 340?

JordynThe 340. Mayor Bass's office says more than 340 rebuild projects are now confirmed under active construction in the Palisades.

DavidWhistle, and that's not even the wild part.

JordynRight, because behind those 340, there's over 1,300 rebuilding plans approved across roughly With 650 addresses.

DavidSo basically every other lot up there has Paper in hand.

JordynPretty much. And Permit issuance is running close to Three times the pre-Fire pace, according to that same City release.

DavidThree times?

JordynThree times. Plan check review down to about Six days.

DavidCompared to what, weeks?

JordynCompared to the old Standard, yeah, way longer than Six days.

DavidOkay, that's a real number. CalMatters has been tracking the Permitting backlog too, and their read is a little more sober than the Press release version.

JordynShocking, a Government Press release oversells itself.

DavidShocking. But even their more cautious count still shows meaningful movement, which Credit words do.

JordynAnd now there's the Standard Plan Pilot Program issuing its First approvals. Homeowners pulling pre-vetted, code-compliant designs off a public library instead of hiring an architect from scratch.

Speaker 3SCRATCH.

DavidThat's the part I actually like; you're not redesigning the wheel for every lot.

JordynRight; real talk,

Davidthough paperwork was never the whole problem. Meaning?

JordynMeaning you can hand someone a stamped set of plans in six days,

Davidbut if there's no framing crew, no lumber, no electrician available until spring... Interrupting, the permit is just sitting on a truck seat.

JordynExactly—it's the difference between clearing the paperwork bottleneck and clearing the actual build bottleneck. So the city fixed the part it controls.

DavidAnd left the...

JordynThe part it doesn't: labor,

Davidmaterials, contractor bandwidth for the market to sort out. materials, contractor bandwidth for the market to sort out.

JordynWhich, follow the money, is exactly why general contractors up there are quoting later start dates even with permits in hand.

DavidSo 340 active sites sounds like a recovery story.

JordynIt is a recovery story, it's just not a finished one.

DavidCute headline, Unnecessary Confidence.

JordynThere it is.

DavidBut okay, all this activity. 340 sites, 600 and... And 50 addresses with plans has to be moving what land is actually worth right now.

JordynThat's the fight I want to have next because I don't think you and I agree on that one at all.

DavidOh, we definitely don't. Building on that fight, let's talk dirt. Literally.

JordynRaw dirt.

DavidI've been tracking vacant lot listings myself, and it's wild-empty Palisades parcels have traded anywhere from one point six million to three point five million, depending on timing.

JordynThat's a huge range for one zip code.

DavidHuge. And get this-one Alphabet Street's lot on Galloway just closed at one point seven three eight million. Work the math, and you're at roughly two-sixty-seven a square foot. Foot just for land.

JordynTwo-sixty-seven for

Speaker 3Mm

Jordynscorched

Speaker 3-hmm.

Jordyndirt!

DavidScorched dirt with a view-that matters.

JordynSure, but Rinde Philippes's research puts the average land value across the Palisades closer to three thirty a square foot, except the spread is brutal-seventy-two dollars on one end, five twenty on the other.

DavidFlatness and ocean view-that's the whole spread right there.

JordynIf you're on a slope with a neighbor's

DavidYeah.

JordynBurned chimney still standing, you're at the low end. And flat with whitewater views, you're past 500.

DavidSo I'll say it: dirt is undervalued right now. Investors clearly agree.

JordynHere we go.

DavidSM Mirror and The Pride LA both reported investors bought close to 40% of the vacant lots sold in 90272 last year. That's not people flipping burgers; that's money betting on the finished home premium.

JordynThat's exactly my problem with the dirt argument, though. Forty percent being investors doesn't prove dirt is undervalued. It proves cash buyers can skip the part killing everyone else.

DavidWhich is what?

JordynInsurance: DWD Builders rebuilding guide runs FAIR Plan premiums running to thirty to sixty thousand dollars a year on these properties now.

DavidA year?

JordynA year. Lenders want proof of coverage before they'll even close, and that premium alone can wreck your monthly budget before you've poured a foundation.

DavidWhich is exactly why cash buyers are the ones scooping up lots. Lots!

JordynExactly; they skip that math at purchase entirely; so I'd argue the real premium isn't dirt versus finished house, it's a permitted fee waived lot versus everything else. Cleared entitlement is worth more than a blank parcel.

DavidI'll push back: a permit is paper; you still need a year plus and a contractor who'll actually show up.

JordynPaper that removes risk; buyers pay for certainty.

Speaker 4Buyers pay for a view, David.

DavidI've walked these blocks, flat pad, ocean glimpse past a burnt eucalyptus next door, and that lot sells itself before anyone mentions paperwork.

JordynWe are not settling this today.

DavidNo, we're really not.

JordynBut it does set up the actual question buyers are facing right now, with insurance numbers like that in the mix.

DavidOkay, before we let this go, the build timeline? 18 to 24 months permit to occupancy on a realistic rebuild right now.

JordynRight, and that's the number nobody puts in the fee waiver headline. You save maybe 40 grand in fees, but you're still two years out.

DavidFee waiver unnecessary wait.

JordynThere it is. But here's what changes my math. Redfin's tracking over 300 active lot listings in the Palisades right now.

DavidWait, three hundred? That's not scarcity, that's a glut.

JordynExactly. Redfin agents are on record saying supply is outrunning demand in the fire zone. So if you're a buyer with patience, you've got leverage the headlines aren't giving you credit for.

DavidSo the smart play might just be wait, let the panic sellers hit the market in six months.

JordynThat's my read too, actually. Rebuild only if you've got the insurance cash and zero urgency. See.

Speaker 4I disagree on where this lands, though. Three hundred and forty projects are heading toward Certificate of Occupancy this year. When those hit the market-

JordynYou think finished homes premium spike.

Speaker 4I do. Move-in ready is going to command a scarcity premium the second inventory's thin and buyers want in without the eighteen month wait.

JordynSkeptical. Let me push back. Once forty, fifty of those finished homes list at once, that premium compresses. It compresses fast, it's not a trickle, it's a wave.

Speaker 4Okay, official prediction time: my call, finished Palisades homes clear ten to fifteen percent above where they're pricing today by year end.

JordynAnd mine's the opposite: I think that wave of completions caps the premium, flattens it out by Q1 2027.

Speaker 4We are never agreeing on this neighbourhood, are we?

JordynNope. Ask us again in six months.

DavidOkay, so today's biggest takeaway for me is that Kagawa Street House went from ash to an actual Certificate of Occupancy in about six months.

JordynYeah, that's the first one issued for any Palisades fire rebuild. Still, proof of concept, not proof of scale.

DavidYou and your prove it energy.

JordynSomebody's gotta ask if the fee waivers actually move the needle or just look good on paper.

DavidFair, but real talk: watching one house go up gives the whole street hope. HOPE.

JordynAgreed; the bigger story is whether permits outrun materials and crews.

DavidThat's the thread we're pulling next week.

JordynNew episodes drop every Tuesday, so follow Listing Price wherever you're listening.

DavidAnd if you've got a deal or listing we should dig into,

JordynSend it our way.

DavidThanks for hanging with us through all the permit talk.

JordynUntil next time, keep watching those lots.

DavidBye, everybody.