What do economists think?

Immigration now decides elections across Europe. In 2026, Spain chose a policy that most governments avoid: it offered legal status and work permits to people who already lived in the country without permission. More than 1.1 million people applied. Spain has done this once before, in 2005. Joan Monràs studied what happened next to migration flows, to public finances, to native workers and to the migrants themselves. Lídia Farré studies who Spain's migrants are and the work they do. She also looks at what their arrival means for schools and for the careers of Spanish women. Tim Phillips asks them what the evidence shows, where the lessons of 2005 apply (and where they don’t), and why the migration debate so rarely starts with a clear objective. About the guests Joan Monràs is General Director of the Barcelona School of Economics. He is also a Professor of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra and an Associate Researcher at CREI. He is a Research Affiliate of CEPR, IZA and CReAM, and was a Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. His research focuses on the economics of migration and labor markets. Lídia Farré directs the Master's Program in Economics of Public Policy at the Barcelona School of Economics. She is a Tenured Scientist at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC) and a Research Fellow of IZA. Her research focuses on labor, public and gender economics, and migration. Concepts and events Spain's 2026 extraordinary regularization . Spain's Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration took applications from 16 April to 30 June 2026. It received 1,174,978 applications and had processed 609,737 by 2 July. Applications are not approvals, and no final number of grants has been published. In 2005, applicants needed a job contract. This time they did not ( Ministerio de Inclusión 2026 ). Spain's 2005 regularization . The Zapatero government took applications from 7 February to 7 May 2005. It received about 690,000. Applicants needed an employer who would give them a contract of at least six months, or three months in agriculture. The process came with a large program of workplace inspections ( Arango and Jachimowicz 2005 ). Magnet effect . This is the idea that a regularization attracts new migrants who hope for a future one. Scale and substitution effects . More workers let firms produce more, which increases demand for all workers (the scale effect). Cheaper workers can also replace other workers (the substitution effect). Which effect is larger depends on the sector, the time period and how firms adapt. Occupational segregation . Migrants are concentrated in some jobs and absent from others. In Spain they are over-represented in agriculture, construction, hospitality, cleaning, domestic work and care. Immigration surplus . This is the net gain to the economy as a whole from immigration. A surplus on average does not mean that every group gains. Research discussed Elias, Ferran, Joan Monràs, and Javier Vázquez-Grenno. 2025. "Understanding the Effects of Granting Work Permits to Undocumented Immigrants." Journal of Labor Economics 43 (3): 763-802. https://doi.org/10.1086/730122 Farré, Lídia. 2026. "Ser mujer e inmigrante en España: doble penalización." In La inmigración en España: retos, impacto y políticas , edited by Raquel Carrasco and Raymond Torres. Madrid: Funcas. https://www.funcas.es/libro/la-inmigracion-en-espana-retos-impacto-y-politicas/ Farré, Lídia, Libertad González, and Francesc Ortega. 2011. "Immigration, Family Responsibilities and the Labor Supply of Skilled Native Women." B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 11 (1): Article 34. IZA DP 4265 To find out more about the Barcelona School of Economics, visit bse.eu .

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