More or Less

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before. But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Sound engineer: James Beard Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon

What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years. To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in various social situations such a pub quizzes, movie nights and awkwardly quiet lifts. From horses to the Harrying of the North, it's all here. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Tom Colls, Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Sue Maillot

How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave? Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year. “This is extremely hard to believe,” he wrote. We track down the – highly reliable – source of the claim, and look at the differences between countries when it comes to taking time of work with illness. To guide us through it all is Lukas Lehner - assistant professor at the University of Edinburgh. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Krista Beighton Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel. Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether bigger and - honestly - far less important question. “How much of the world surface actually doesn't belong to anyone?” he wondered. To try and answer Nigel’s question, we enlisted the help of Mark Cooper-Jones, one half of YouTube duo Map Men. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have a interesting statistical question like Nigel, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid agency, USAID - cancelling many of its programmes and absorbing the remainder into the State Department. This has caused controversy in some circles, with researchers estimating that the cuts could result in the loss of 14 million lives by 2030. Musk strenuously denies this, stating that cuts made by DOGE has resulted in 'zero' deaths. But who is right, and what are the problems with these sorts of estimates? We speak to Dr Hannah Ritchie to find out more. If you see numbers that you want us to look into contact moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it equate to as a proportion of all the wealth in the world? How much of all the money does Elon Musk have? We set about trying to figure this out, with the help of Robin Wigglesworth, author of A Fabulous Debt and journalist at the Financial Times. If you’ve seen a number in the news that you think we should take a look at, or have an interesting statistical question like Stephen, get in touch: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m. As you may or may not have imagined, this finding provoked outrage on Twitter, with people saying the UK appeared incredibly risk averse. “This is what’s wrong with Britain,” wrote celebrity polling analyst and More or Less interviewee Nate Silver. But is the result surprising, when you know a bit more about how people make decisions like this? BBC economics editor Faisal Islam explains why he thinks not. Image: Illustration of paper notes with a sterling pound symbol falling. Credit: Jamie Lawton/Getty Images Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound engineer: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’. But what does the data tell us? Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City Policing, has put together statistics that allow you to start to compare crime rates between cities around the world. That evidence shows London in a different light, in terms of murder and other violent crimes. If you see any stats you think need looking into, contact us at moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Andrew Garratt

As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and unpredictability in the beautiful game. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.uk CONTRIBUTORS: Ian Graham, former Head of Research at Liverpool FC David Sumpter, Professor of Applied Mathematics at Uppsala University Luis Nunes Vicente, Mathematician at Lehigh University CREDITS: Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Josh McMinn Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports. The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in many countries is expensive to play and so attracts wealthier players. Couldn't it be the players' socio-economic status driving the trend? We speak to medical statistician Adam Jacobs, to understand what the study in question can, and cannot, say for certain. If you see any stats that look too good to be true and want us to check them out, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound Mix: James Beard.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this? We interview someone from the IFS to explain all this. (06:32) A headline in the Independent suggests that Russian soldiers survive an average of 20 minutes when they get to the front line, citing a historian, citing Russian bloggers. Is the number a good one? We take a peek into the murky information ecosystem that surrounds the war in Ukraine. (15:00) A loyal listener has resent a burning question that - mortifyingly - he first asked us nearly three years ago: why is air travel cheaper than rail travel? We push our guilt deep, deep down then make it worse by challenging the premise of the question. (21:18) Is every shuffle of a deck of cards an unprecedented event in the history of the universe? It’s a bold claim, but maths YouTuber and comedian Matt Parker has done his homework. We invite him into the studio to make his case - and show off his shuffling skills. More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Guests: Luke Sibieta - Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Andrey Vladov - BBC Monitoring Mark Galeotti - author of Forged in War - A Military History of Russia from its Beginnings to Today Simon Calder - Travel Correspondent at the Daily Telegraph Matt Parker - Mathematician, comedian and YouTuber (Stand-up Maths) Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Josh McMinn Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Siobhan Reed Sound Engineer: James Beard

The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a bright moon can influence human actions is one that many believe. But what does the data tell us? We spoke to Professor Eric Chudler, who has looked at crime rates and lunar cycles to discover whether the moon truly is the ultimate crime puppeteer. If you spot any suspicious numbers in the news or life and want us to investigate, please email in to: moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Presenter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard Production coordinator: Siobhan Reed

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic miracle can be fully believed, and how much credit he deserves. (10:09) As our towns and cities get hotter, would turning to air conditioning really drive outside temperatures up by 10 to 12 degrees celcius? We learn about the fascinating world of ‘urban heat islands’. (15:40) We turn to homophones in an attempt to continue a running joke. This week, we follow six items about Wales with an item about whales - are our cetacean friends the carbon sinks of our dreams? Will we ever write a stranger paragraph? (22:10) Cult director and maths fanboy Werner Herzog has been waxing lyrical about the intruiging mysteries of prime numbers. Tim cracks out a surprisingly decent impression and we learn about one of the most inscrutable problems in mathematics - what’s not to like? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Guests: Paul Swinney - Chief Economist at The Data City Liam Sides - Associate Director at Oxford Economics Dimple Rana - Heat Resilience Leader at Arup Sue Grimmond - Professor of Meteorology, University of Reading Dr Olaf Meynecke - Marine Ecologist, Griffith University James Grime - Mathematician and star of YouTube channel Numberphile Special Guest Appearance: The Voice of Werner Herzog Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it. (09:09) As the heatwave rises to a crescendo, people are saying that wet bulb temperatures could hit critical levels. Utterly mystified? So was our editor, so we made this item to explain all to him (and you). (14:34) In a tournament with so many teams, we’ve had to consult a university professor to understand the mysterious mathematical workings of the World Cup Draw. It’s even more complicated and confusing than VAR! (OK, it’s not that bad.) (19:00) Welsh comedian Elis James has a superpower - finding mutual connections with his fellow countrymen and women. So let’s add to the fun by providing a statistical framework upon which to understand his achievements. That’s how comedy works, right? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in the news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Guests: Eduin Latimer - Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Dr Chloe Brimicombe - climate scientist and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford Dr Kat Phillips - innovation research associate at the University of Warwick and a digital maths communicator under the name ‘KatDoesMaths’ Oliver Johnson - Professor of Information Theory, the University of Bristol Returning Special Guest appearance: Elis James: comedian and well-connected Welshman Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from malnutrition than China and North Korea. The rate in the US was 2.8 deaths per 100,000 compared to just 1.7 deaths per 100,000 for North Korea. From what we know about the two countries this seems unlikely, so what’s going on here? We talk to Dr Krstina Newport, chief medical officer for the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Care Medicine to find out more. If you have seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Sound engineer: Duncan Hannant Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver bullet? (06:59) Sainsbury’s are making the switch from brown to white eggs, on the basis of claims about their carbon footprint - but how do you work this out? We talk to an egg man about eggs. A lot. (13:56) Are Conservative MPs frit? That’s what a Labour MP thinks after a recent PMQs saw no Conservative backbenchers ask a question. Are they really afraid to ask Keir Starmer a question? Or is it just probability? (19:20) In a series full of Welsh twists, another Welsh twist; have we been guilty of drastically underestimating the area of Wales by failing to account for its majestic mountains and plunging valleys? Topography is top of mind for our top team. More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Guests: Gary Ford - policy advisor at the British Free Range Egg Producers Association Dr Laura Graham - computational and spatial ecologist at the University of Birmingham Dr Jen Visser Rogers - statistician and chief scientific officer at Coronado Research. Special guest appearance: Elis James Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand about the crash in numbers, from ticker-tape running hours behind plunging stock prices to crucial metrics that sound the alarm bells before a financial crisis. Are they sounding today, in the middle of an AI stockmarket boom? Andrew's new book is '1929: Inside the Crash'. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. (08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in… (16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores? (21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades? More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk . Guests: Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe? We look into what the data actually tells us. If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Sound engineer: Dave O'Neill Editor: Richard Vadon