AI Economics Research Podcast

This episode breaks down a recent Federal Reserve research paper exploring who earns economics PhDs in the U.S. and the structural factors shaping access and success in the field. We delve into why U.S.-born students, particularly those from underrepresented backgrounds, face barriers and what pipeline programs and mentorship models can do to expand opportunities in advanced economics research careers. Read the full paper at https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/working-papers/2026/2026-13 and send your thoughts and questions to feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank - Federal Reserve https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2026-13 Keywords: Economics PhD, Higher Education, Career Pathways, Diversity in Economics, Underrepresentation, Mentorship

Dive into a new Bank of England research paper that unpacks how UK homeowners reacted to the September 2022 mini-budget's interest rate shock. This episode explains in plain English why many borrowers opted for shorter, pricier two-year fixed-rate mortgages, prioritizing flexibility and potential equity extraction over longer-term rate insurance. Join us to understand the complex decisions behind mortgage refinancing and the trade-off between rate protection and financial agility. You can find the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2026/locking-in-the-rate-or-staying-flexible-mortgage-refinancing-around-an-interest-rate-shock?utm_source=Bank+of+England+updates&utm_campaign=5b5679b3ad-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2026_08_28_09_07&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-5b5679b3ad-113607754. We'd love to hear your thoughts and questions at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Locking in the rate or staying - Bank of England Keywords: Mortgages, Interest Rates, Refinancing, UK Economy, Financial Stability, Central Banking

This episode delves into a Bank of England research paper exploring how monetary policy's effects on innovation and productivity can be surprisingly persistent. We break down findings showing that firms without access to cash flow-based borrowing—lending against earnings rather than physical collateral—cut R&D significantly more after interest rate hikes, leading to lasting impacts on economic output. Discover the crucial role of firm financing in the transmission of monetary policy and how expanding access to finance could mitigate these losses. For your thoughts and questions, email us at feedback@econpod.org, and find the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/innovation-financial-frictions-and-persistent-effects-of-monetary-policy.pdf. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Innovation, financial frictions, and - Bank of England Keywords: Innovation, Monetary Policy, Financial Frictions, Productivity, R&D, Cash Flow, Borrowing, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, Central Banking, Macroeconomics, Financial Stability, Firms, Business Finance, Persistent Effects

This episode delves into a new Federal Reserve Bank of New York research paper introducing "ordinal complementarity," a robust way to understand how inputs interact in production processes. We'll explain why this definition offers stronger, more reliable policy implications, particularly for social planner problems and the empirical study of cognitive skill formation in children. Read the full paper at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1199 and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Martín Almuzara | Martín García-Vázquez | Joseph Mullins Ordinal Complementarity - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1199 Keywords: ordinal complementarity, skill formation, economic policy, production functions, supermodularity, human capital

This episode unpacks a recent Bank of England research paper, "Productivity and Inflation Dynamics," explaining in plain English why higher productivity doesn't always guarantee lower inflation. We delve into how the timing of demand and supply responses, alongside central bank policy, determines whether productivity growth fuels or dampens price pressures. Send your feedback or questions to feedback@econpod.org, and find the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/productivity-and-inflation-dynamics.pdf. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Productivity and inflation dynamics Ludovica Ambrosino, Jenny Chan and Silvana Tenreyro - Bank of England Keywords: inflation, productivity, monetary policy, central banking, interest rates, macroeconomics

This episode dives into a new Bank of England staff working paper exploring how cloud outsourcing is impacting competition in the UK banking sector. We break down how banks' use of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) affects their costs, deposit growth, and the competitive landscape, particularly for smaller institutions, and how this interacts with capital requirements. Learn how this technological shift could be reducing barriers to entry and reshaping financial stability. For questions or discussion, reach out to feedback@econpod.org, and find the full paper at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/outsourcing-and-competition-in-the-banking-sector-the-rise-of-csps.pdf This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Outsourcing and competition in - Bank of England Keywords: Cloud Computing, Banking Competition, Financial Regulation, Central Banking, Digital Transformation, Financial Stability

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper on how monetary policy impacts the housing sector. It explores why rising interest rates cause house prices to fall while rents remain stable for extended periods, and reveals the crucial role of individual landlords' behavior in this transmission. For more details, read the paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/monetary-transmission-through-the-housing-sector.pdf, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Monetary transmission through the Daniel Albuquerque, Thomas Lazarowicz and Jamie Lenney - Bank of England Keywords: Monetary Policy, Housing Market, Interest Rates, House Prices, Rents, Central Banking

This episode breaks down a recent paper from the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS that reveals how job switching—known as employer-to-employer (EE) transitions—significantly influences inflation and impacts optimal monetary policy decisions. We explore why central banks need to consider job mobility alongside unemployment rates to accurately forecast price changes and set interest rates, with examples from the Great Recession and the Great Resignation. Dive deeper into the research at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/94640/102106 and share your thoughts with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.016 Keywords: Inflation, Monetary Policy, Job Mobility, Labor Markets, Central Banking, Interest Rates

This episode explores a fascinating research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, diving into the critical difference between programmable payments and programmable money. As central banks worldwide explore digital currencies, understanding this distinction is vital to ensure new monetary systems don't compromise the fundamental qualities of "good" money like uniformity and fungibility. Discover how a new framework clarifies this debate, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. Read the full paper at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1180.html. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Michael Junho Lee | Antoine Martin Programming Money Without Programmable Money - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1180 Keywords: Programmable Money, Digital Payments, Central Banking, Digital Currency, Monetary Systems, Financial Stability

This episode unpacks a Bank of England staff working paper by Jamie Lenney and Biagio Rosso, exploring how economic models can better reflect real-world human behavior. We dive into a new flexible approach that moves beyond traditional rational expectations, allowing for agents to overreact or underreact to economic conditions and news. Learn how incorporating these 'behavioural expectations' significantly improves the empirical fit of macroeconomic models, especially when forecasting inflation. We welcome your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org, and you can find the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/a-flexible-deviation-from-fire-in-the-sequence-space.pdf. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: A flexible deviation from FIRE in the Jamie Lenney and Biagio Rosso - Bank of England Keywords: Macroeconomics, Behavioural economics, Inflation, Monetary policy, Economic forecasting, Rational expectations

This episode dives into a Bank of England research paper by Eric Tong and Rennae Cherry, titled "Central bank communications that reach the public." We explore how central bank messages, as encountered through news media, actually shape households' inflation expectations, challenging the traditional view that central bank communication rarely reaches the public. Learn why measuring communication as the public experiences it is crucial for understanding its impact on financial stability and macroeconomics, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. Find the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/central-bank-communications-that-reach-the-public.pdf This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Central bank communications that Eric Tong and Rennae Cherry - Bank of England Keywords: central banking, inflation expectations, macroeconomics, financial stability, monetary policy, public communication, textual analysis, economic forecasting, media influence

This episode breaks down a new Bank of England research paper that explores how rapid innovation in digital payments and new private digital monies challenge the idea that all money should trade at par—a concept known as "monetary singleness." Discover when small deviations from par are efficient and why central bank reserves and cash are crucial for financial stability in an evolving digital landscape. Read the full paper at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/a-model-of-monetary-singleness.pdf, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: A model of monetary singleness - Bank of England Keywords: Monetary Singleness, Digital Money, Central Banking, Financial Stability, Payment Systems, Cash

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report that uses big data from foot traffic to uncover hidden demand shocks affecting businesses in New York City. We explore how retail, service, and health establishments experience highly varied and unpredictable changes in customer demand, challenging traditional economic assumptions. Hear the plain English explanation of this cutting-edge research and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: NO. 1191 Shocks from Foot Traffic Marina Azzimonti | David Wiczer | Yang Xuan - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1191.pdf?sc_lang=en Keywords: Foot Traffic, Demand Shocks, Retail Economics, Service Sector, Big Data, Economic Forecasting

This episode dives into a new Bank of England research paper exploring whether Large Language Models like GPT-3.5 Turbo can form inflation perceptions and expectations similar to human households. Using a clever quasi-experimental design, the study compares LLM outputs to survey data, revealing how AI responds to economic signals and its surprising sensitivity to food inflation. Discover the implications for economic forecasting and social science research, and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. Find the full paper here: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2026/inflation-attitudes-of-large-language-models.pdf This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Inflation attitudes of large Nikoleta Anesti, Edward Hill and Andreas Joseph - Bank of England Keywords: inflation, large language models, AI, economic forecasting, central banking, macroeconomics

This episode breaks down a recent Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper, offering a strategic economic analysis of narcoterrorism in plain English. We explore how terrorist groups extort drug farmers for funding, how developed nations use crop destruction as a counterterrorism tool, and the complex interplay of drug markets, terror financing, and international policy. For questions or discussion, email feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS A Strategic Analysis of Narcoterrorism: Counterterrorism, Terrorist - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2025/2025-032.pdf Keywords: Narcoterrorism, Counterterrorism, Drug Trafficking, Terrorist Financing, International Economics, Security Policy

This episode breaks down a research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, exploring whether different measures of the money supply are useful for forecasting US inflation. Using advanced non-linear techniques, the authors find limited support for monetary aggregates as reliable inflation predictors in the early to mid-2000s. Dive into the specifics of this intriguing macroeconomic study at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/10440/original and share your thoughts at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2009.030 Keywords: inflation, money supply, forecasting, monetary policy, central banking, macroeconomics

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper asking a crucial question: Do monetary aggregates actually help forecast inflation? We break down the paper's novel approach using neural networks and kernel regression to evaluate money's predictive power for US inflation in the early 2000s, explaining the findings in plain English. For more details, find the original paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/10440/original, and we welcome your feedback and discussion at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Does Money Matter in Inflation Forecasting? - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2009.030 Keywords: Inflation, Money Supply, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Central Banking, Neural Networks

This episode dives into a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis research paper that examines how to make economic forecasts more accurate, particularly in an environment of structural change. We break down how combining "recursive" (using all available data) and "rolling" (using only recent data) forecasting methods can significantly improve prediction quality. Learn about this innovative strategy and share your feedback at feedback@econpod.org, or read the full paper at https://fedinprint.org/item/fedlwp/9611/original. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Improving Forecast Accuracy by Combining Recursive and Rolling - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2008.028 Keywords: forecasting, macroeconomics, structural change, central banking, model averaging, forecast accuracy

This episode delves into an OECD research paper that challenges conventional wisdom on forecasting recessions. We explore how a "wisdom of crowds" approach, averaging predictions from multiple simple models, can be as effective as advanced machine learning techniques like Random Forests for predicting economic downturns in OECD countries. Do you have thoughts on the best forecasting methods? Share them with us at feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Harnessing the wisdom - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/harnessing-the-wisdom-of-crowds-to-assess-recession-risks-in-oecd-countries_d197200d/46880adc-en.pdf Keywords: Recession, Economic Forecasting, Macroeconomics, Machine Learning, Wisdom of Crowds, OECD

This episode explains a Bank of England Staff Working Paper, "Non-standard errors," by Albert J Menkveld et al., exploring how variations in researcher choices introduce significant "non-standard errors" into scientific findings. We break down their study of 164 teams testing hypotheses on the same data, revealing these errors are substantial, decrease with peer feedback, and are often underestimated by participants. Have thoughts or questions on how researcher bias impacts economic insights? Send them to feedback@econpod.org. This episode explains a real academic paper in plain English for a general audience. Source paper: Keywords: non-standard errors, research methodology, scientific uncertainty, economics research, central banking, data analysis