Sage

David Dodge and John Manley helped bring Mark Carney into public service. Now they have a budget warning: borrowing to build a stronger economy could leave Canada with less room to respond to the next crisis. The former Bank of Canada governor and former deputy prime minister and finance minister, join hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon to examine Carney’s growth agenda. How much will Ottawa really borrow beyond what the deficit suggests? Can spending cuts succeed without deciding which programs to end? And will the investments generate enough growth to justify the borrowing? Drawing on the hard choices of the 1990s, they explain what they’ll watch on budget day—and why both favour taxing income less and consumption more. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Alberta voted decisively to stay in Canada. Stéphane Dion and Janet Annesley welcome the result. But both view the referendum a “sad exercise”? Former Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion and Alberta energy and public affairs adviser Janet Annesley join hosts Edward Greenspon and Allan Gregg in back-to-back conversations about what the vote exposed and what comes next. Can Ottawa address long-held grievances without rewarding separatist blackmail? Could separatists lose the referendum but still take over the United Conservative Party - and what happens then? And can Alberta channel its ambitions into a bigger role in leading Canada? Listen to this week’s Sage Podcast, and share it with your network. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

A pay raise feels earned. Higher prices feel like something being taken away. When incomes fail to keep pace, the consequences reach well beyond the household budget. Former B.C. cabinet secretary Don Wright joins host Edward Greenspon to explore how stagnant living standards undermine public confidence and feed the discontent reshaping politics in Canada, the United States and other democracies. Even through Trump’s threats and the trade war, Canadians’ affordability concerns have remained front and centre. With the U.S. midterms approaching, Sage examines how Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war have compounded the squeeze on Americans—and how voters’ frustration could change the political equation on both sides of the border. Listen to the latest Sage Podcast and share it with your network. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada is preparing to spend far more on defence, reopening some uncomfortable questions about how we protect ourselves. Why do we buy military equipment once a generation, then wait for it to fall apart before replacing it? Has our love of peacekeeping become an excuse to neglect defence? And how reliable are allied supply lines when everyone needs the same ammunition? Former deputy minister of national defence Jody Thomas and former deputy minister of foreign affairs Senator Peter Harder join host Allan Gregg to unpack what rebuilding Canada’s security will demand. Listen in to why allies will replenish their own forces first, why Thomas would direct almost all defence infrastructure spending to the Arctic, and why Canada needs diplomatic expertise in countries that haven’t yet become priorities. The conversation is about sovereignty: whether Canada can turn a bigger defence budget into the ability to protect its territory, keep its forces supplied, and exercise greater influence in an increasingly uncertain world. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada is heading into a revealing political month: elections in B.C. and Quebec, and an Alberta referendum that has revived familiar anxieties about national unity. But the deeper story may not be whether the country is breaking apart. It may be whether the federation itself is being renegotiated. Tonda MacCharles, Ottawa Bureau Chief for the Toronto Star, and Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, join hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon to unpack a volatile moment in Canadian politics: why Trump and Carney have frozen normal partisan lines, why Alberta’s separatist question may be less important than the other questions on the ballot, why Quebec could elect a sovereigntist government without a separatist majority, and why B.C.’s election may test the limits of Team Canada politics. The result is a conversation about power: who holds it, who feels excluded from it, and how much longer national unity can be sustained by crisis politics alone. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Opposition to Bill C‑39 has been portrayed as a battle between new investment and environmental protection and between collective bargaining rights and warding off strikes in essential economic services. But its most consequential changes may be the ones attracting the least attention. Unlike previous reforms under the Harper and Trudeau governments, the legislation reaches right into the permitting machinery that kicks in after a project receives its initial approval. Securing these permits under the Fisheries Act, the Navigable Waters Act and the Species at Risk Act can add years to wait times. Not only will permitting fall into the government’s single-window, one-year timeline, ministers are being directed “to consider technical, economic and practical feasibility when establishing, adding or amending conditions.” That means environmental consequences will have to be weighed against economic consequences - the first use of a proportionality test. Former federal and provincial deputy ministers Michael Keenan and Don Wright join hosts Edward Greenspon and Allan Gregg to examine the ambition—and the risks—inside Bill C‑39. They discuss everything from little-noticed micro changes with big effects to the possible impacts on employment and wages. They wonder if wage inflation may push project costs into the stratosphere or whether it actually constitutes a backdoor strategy to raise living standards. Oh yes, and an interesting digression into the B.C. election. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Trillions(!) of dollars came to Toronto last week—or at least the people who manage it did. Some 300 executives managing $120 trillion(!) in assets gathered for the federal government’s “inaugural” investment summit, where Canada sought to reintroduce itself to global capital and make the case that it can be that trusted supplier everyone is seeking. Turning interest into investment will require more than an appealing pitch, convivial surroundings and the speedy tax write-downs the government has proposed. Before investors pony up, as we hear on this week’s Sage Podcast, they will also want assurance of cost stability, quicker regulatory approvals, and confidence that changes in government won’t mean changes in policy. Canada, meanwhile, must decide how much public money it is prepared to put at risk and how it will structure that support. You may recall a trio of discussion papers published in the Spring. Well be prepared for their comeback. Hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon are joined by David Dodge, Martha Hall Findlay and Miville Tremblay to assess the summit, the government’s new “productivity mega-deduction,” the proposed Canada Strong Fund and the prospect of bringing private capital into Canadian airports. Listen to the latest episode of the Sage Podcast here or on Spotify or Apple. Share it with your network! Let us know what you think! And please join our growing Sage club by subscribing to the site where experience meets Canada’s future. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada and the United States appear trapped in a cycle of tariffs and counter-tariffs. But the Trump administration’s response this week to Canadian retaliation was more modest than feared. Does that signal an effort to contain the conflict — or is it merely a lull before the next storm? Meanwhile, the heavy hitters of global capital gather this week in Toronto to chew on 167 possible investments – a major test of Canada’s attractiveness as a place to do business in the unfolding world order. Senator and former federal deputy minister Peter Harder, Canada-U.S. relationship expert Scotty Greenwood, and former Bank of Canada and La Caisse executive Miville Tremblay join hosts Edward Greenspon and Allan Gregg to tackle all this and more – will the U.S. midterm elections weaken Trump’s hand or make him more unpredictable, how the trade war is shaping the Quebec election, and what it still takes to become more investible? Listen to the latest episode of the Sage Podcast here or on Spotify or Apple. Share it with your network! Let us know what you think! And please join our growing Sage club by subscribing to the site where experience meets Canada’s future. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada has spent more than half a century talking about diversifying its trade. Donald Trump’s assault on the Canada-U.S. economic relationship has made the old “Third Option” newly urgent – but the numbers remain sobering. Modelling discussed in this episode suggests that even a successful push would replace less than half the economic activity Canada could lose if CUSMA disappeared. Senator Peter Boehm and former B.C. cabinet secretary Don Wright join hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon to ask where Canada should place its bets—and what it must build to get there. They weigh the promise of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, the risks of China, the future of autos and energy, and the ports, pipelines, railways and trade corridors needed to turn agreements into actual trade. Diversification is essential, but it will take years. To smooth the transition to greater self-reliance, Canada must ironically preserve as much access to the U.S. market as possible. Listen to the Sage Podcast today, and share it with your network. Please consider subscribing to Sage and making a pledge so we can continue putting experience to work on Canada’s future. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada and the United States have gone over the tariff cliff. Was walking away really the only acceptable choice? Now can Canada retaliate without doing ourselves harm or alienating those American businesses and consumers who may be its best allies? And, will emergency support help vulnerable firms adapt—or merely preserve an economic set-up that may never return? Perhaps most importantly, can Team Canada hold together and what are the implications of division? Senator Peter Harder, former Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay and former Newfoundland and Labrador finance minister Cathy Bennett join host Allan Gregg to examine why the negotiations failed and what Canada should do next. They discuss the immediate threat to small and medium-sized businesses, the political calculation behind Canada’s response, the risks of using energy as leverage and the opportunity to turn a painful rupture into a more resilient, diversified and investable Canadian economy. Listen to the Sage Podcast today and share it. Sage adds highly experienced voices to the national conversation. Please think of subscribing and making a pledge to help finance our work. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

At what may be a make-or-break moment in the trade talks, Canada must decide how much it is willing to concede in exchange for greater economic stability. Would Ottawa accept some tariffs in return for more predictability on steel, aluminum and autos? How will Mexico and deeply integrated North American supply chains shape the outcome? And if the talks fail, should Canada walk away, retaliate, pursue a legal challenge or wait for the U.S. midterm elections? Canada-U.S. relations expert and former U.S. diplomat Scotty Greenwood, and Senator Peter Harder, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Senator Peter Boehm, former Senior Associate Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, join host Allan Gregg to discuss what Canada might gain, what it may have to give up and whether an agreement would provide a platform for moving forward—or merely another pause in an increasingly adversarial relationship. Listen to the latest episode of the Sage Podcast, and please share it with your network. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

With President Donald Trump’s August 19 tariff deadline just days away, Canadian negotiators have remained in Washington trying to avert a show-stopping escalation in the trade war. But despite the rightful attention, these are not yet CUSMA renegotiations. They are a narrower — and increasingly urgent — battle over steel, aluminum, autos, alcohol, dairy and other irritants. Will Trump delay the new tariffs while talks continue? Does Canada have more leverage than generally thought? And if the deadline passes without an agreement and perhaps with new tariffs, should Canada continue trying to grind it out, walk away or retaliate? Andrei Sulzenko, a principal negotiator of the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement, Marta Morgan, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Senator Peter Harder, also a former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, join host Allan Gregg to discuss Canada’s options at the tariff cliff—and why the real CUSMA negotiations may be better left for later. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canada’s universal healthcare system remains a major social and economic asset. But years of tightly controlling costs have also left it with too few beds, too little resilience, burned-out health professionals and patients rationed through wait times. We may have made health care financially sustainable, but is it still sustainable from the perspective of the people who depend on it? Sage contributors Peter Nicholson and Peter Wallace join host Allan Gregg to debate why reform has proved so difficult and what should come next. Can expanding the responsibilities of nurses, pharmacists and other health professionals improve access? Would private investment provide a much-needed safety valve—or merely siphon workers and easier cases out of the public system? And can AI and Canada’s vast stores of health data finally help spread better practices across hospitals and provinces? Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Canadians need to reckon with growing wildfire footprints, including more frantic evacuations, more community destruction, and smoke infesting urban areas and even crossing international borders. As wildfires dominate the headlines, Sage explores the decades of misguided fire suppression practices, the complications from climate change, and the policy solutions available to resilient societies to both manage and combat the blazes, Kelsey Winter, Executive Director at the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, and JP Gladu, an Anishinaabe leader from northwest Ontario educated as a forester, join Sage hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon to answer these questions and offer some surprising perspectives. Please listen now on the podcast provider of your choice. And please subscribe to Sage and share with your network. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

The affordability crisis goes well beyond the monthly inflation rate. It’s about cost of living, for sure, but also low productivity, stagnant wages, and wounded spirits. On the latest episode of the Sage Podcast, former Newfoundland and Labrador Finance Minister, Cathy Bennett and former B.C. Cabinet Secretary Don Wright join hosts Edward Greenspon and Allan Gregg to talk over this unfolding economic, social, and political tragedy, and the staying power of rebate and subsidy responses. While governments need to focus on geopolitical threats, they risk long-term generational unrest if they don’t also get with the program on affordability. Listen today to this essential discussion, and let your network know that Sage is digging into these big, hairy issues. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Six months after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s landmark Davos speech turned him into an international “rock star,” how well is the vision managing contact with reality? Janice Stein, Founding Director at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and trade and global-governance expert John Hancock join host Edward Greenspon to assess how the Davos vision is doing and probe its inherent contradictions and still-untapped potential. Can middle powers really work together—or is that idea actually “close to fantasy?” The conversation criss-crosses the globe, with stopovers in Washington, Beijing, Berlin, Paris, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Kyiv, Moscow, and back to Ottawa. We hear that we’re living in a world in which controlling chokepoints - the Strait of Hormuz, critical mineral processing, semiconductors, AI, etc. - confers real power. Where’s Canada’s leverage? How do we get more? Where do our interests really lie? Listen to a stimulating and scintillating conversation. If you enjoy the discussion - and you will - please share it with your friends and colleagues. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

NATO’s leaders left Turkey declaring unity—but did the alliance emerge stronger, or simply avoid disaster? As allies commit to historic defence spending and Canada embarks on its biggest military procurement in history, is the country finally becoming a serious defence player? And has Ukraine gone from needing NATO to becoming indispensable to its future? Sage contributors Kerry Buck, Canada’s former ambassador to the alliance, and Senator Peter Harder join host Edward Greenspon to unpack what the summit achieved, what it left unsaid, and what Canada’s growing defence commitments mean for the future of the alliance. In case you missed it, check out last week’s Sage Podcast, when Kerry Buck was joined by former Deputy Minister of National Defence and National Security Advisor Jody Thomas to discuss expectations ahead of the leaders’ summit in Turkey. If you enjoyed this, you may also like from Sage: Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

As NATO leaders gather for their annual summit, attention will be on defence production and procurement as a unifying theme. The North Atlantic alliance is managing not just Donald Trump’s erraticism but also massive changes in the nature of warfare as well as the enormous economic impacts on members of conflict far from its borders. Two Sage regulars, former Canadian Ambassador to NATO Kerry Buck and former National Security Advisor and Deputy Minister of Defence Jody Thomas, tell host Edward Greenspon that Canada comes to the table more committed and more appreciated than in decades. They argue that Canada’s greatest contribution lies in doubling down on our software strengths while the next step toward a 3.5% spending target needs to place greater emphasis on NATO’s role in defending the Arctic. Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

Nuclear power is back at the centre of Canada’s energy debate. AI is driving huge new demand for electricity, governments are racing to build, and Canada may have a rare advantage: CANDU technology, uranium, skilled workers, and decades of nuclear know-how. But can Canada turn that head start into a global industry? Can the public be brought along? And can nuclear become not just a source of power, but a nation-building project? Listen as nuclear experts Rick Anderson and Michelle Leslie join hosts Allan Gregg and Edward Greenspon to answer these questions and more! Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe

The G7 was built for a different world, but this year’s gathering showed it’s far from dead yet. Fifty years on, it still tries to manage the biggest global risks: China, Ukraine, Iran, AI, critical minerals and “the boss” in the room, Donald Trump. Is the summit still a serious tool of global governance — or just simply an opportunity for keeping disruption from spinning out of control? Sage’s own Peter Harder, Marta Morgan and Miville Tremblay join host Allan Gregg to tackle these questions and more. Listen now! Get full access to SAGE at sagecanada.substack.com/subscribe