The Spillover

The Trump administration is pursuing a transactional style of U.S. foreign policy, leaving friends and adversaries uncertain about what Washington wants. This week on The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and Jim Steinberg, dean of SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, unpack how Washington’s deal-making approach is playing out in Ukraine, Taiwan, AI governance, and the Iran war, and what could replace the U.S.-led global order that has persisted for the past eighty years. Host: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: James Steinberg , Dean of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University Mentioned on the Episode: Stephen Sestanovich, “ Trump’s ‘Diesel Deal’ With Russia Was Just the Start ,” CFR.org Thomas Graham “ Trump’s Putin Overtures Deserve Criticism. But Outrage Won’t End the Ukraine War. ,” CFR.org Liana Fix and Daniel Fiott, “ Europe’s Defense Dilemma ,” CFR.org Michael Froman, “ The Victory of Asymmetry in the Iran War ,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large. Host: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Shannon K. O’Neil , Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Angela Pinho, “ 20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out ,” Diario de Comercio Adam B. Ellick, “ Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil ,” New York Times Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue. Host: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Henrietta Treyz , Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda Mentioned on the Episode: “ Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F ,” Economic Research Service USDA Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “ Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI ,” The Anthropic Institute Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “ Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms ,” Politico Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Adam Posen , President, Peterson Institute for International Economics Mentioned on the Episode: Adam S. Posen, “ China Still Has What America Needs ,” Foreign Affairs Adam S. Posen, “ Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography ,” Intereconomics Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Anne Applebaum , Pulitzer Prize–winning author; staff writer, The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University Mentioned on the Episode: Anne Applebaum, “ MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption ,” The Atlantic Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “ Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal ,” Reuters Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “ The AI Trilemma ,” Foreign Affairs Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen. Host: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Natasha Sarin , Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab Mentioned on the Episode: Natasha Sarin, “ No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea ,” New York Times “ Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’ ,” TradingView “ The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 ,” Congressional Budget Office Rebecca Patterson, “ What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market ,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in a Venezuelan oil company and how managing demand and boosting efficiency are critical for long-term energy security and climate progress. Host: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran , Philip D. Reed Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “ Why Nuclear Energy Is Making a Global Comeback ,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “ Crude Calculations: Why the Iran War Hasn’t Yet Caused an Oil Shock ,” CFR.org Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “ Geothermal’s Time Has Finally Come ,” The Economist Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran, “ Americans’ Electricity Bills Are Up. Don’t Blame AI ,” The Economist Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the risk to the financial market overblown? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, to discuss the threat AI debt poses to the U.S. bond market. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Torsten Slok , Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Mentioned on the Episode: Torsten Slok, “ A Slower AI Payoff Would Be Everyone's Problem ,” Apollo Torsten Slok, “ Monitoring the AI Trade: How Growing Debt Issuance Is Reshaping the Landscape ,” Apollo Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? This week, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby draw on Patterson's new chapter for the book Geopolitics of AI to guess at an eventual winner. The pair weighs the inputs of talent, capital, energy, and public support, and question popular assumptions about inevitable American success. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Geopolitics of AI , Johns Hopkins University Press Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby to examine how conflict in the Strait of Hormuz exposed the fragility of the world's maritime chokepoints, and revealed China as the quiet winner of the crisis. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen , Fellow for the Middle East and codirector of the Middle East Energy Roundtable, Baker Institute Mentioned on the Episode: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Jim Krane, “ Maritime Chokepoints and Risks to Global Shipping and Energy Security ,” Baker Institute “ China ‘Blockade Simulation’ Exposes $5 Trillion Global Danger ,” Bloomberg “ Crossroads of Commerce: How the Taiwan Strait Propels the Global Economy ,” CSIS Spencer Kimball, “ Oil in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Falls Below 300 Million Barrels, Lowest Since 1983 ,” MSN “ China Is Now the World’s Great Oil Power ,” The Economist “ The Middle East and Global Energy Markets ,” IEA Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American thinkers’ predictions for the twentieth century, an Irish murder mystery, and a Stanford student’s exposé on Silicon Valley venture capital and start-up culture. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Dave Walter, Today Then Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart, The Unanchored Central Banker Tana French, The Keeper Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, Abundance Theo Baker, How to Rule the World Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss AI progress and security, as well as the U.S.-China AI rivalry. Hosts: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jordan Schneider , Founder and Editor in Chief, ChinaTalk Mentioned on the Episode: Jordan Schneider, “ ChinaTalk ” podcast and newsletter “ DeepSeek: The Quiet Giant Leading China’s AI Race ,” translation of Liang Wenfeng’s interview with Waves Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers face in encouraging enough innovation to stay ahead of China while addressing public anxiety about AI. Drawing on Mallaby’s recent Foreign Affairs essay and his new book, The Infinity Machine, this episode explores the stakes of the AI race and how its trajectory will reshape economies, societies, and global politics. Host: Dan Kurtz-Phelan , Editor, Foreign Affairs Guest: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White House chief of staff, and President Joe Biden’s U.S. ambassador to Japan. The trio discuss Emanuel’s recent speech in Israel, the state of the U.S. Democratic Party, and the outlook for the upcoming midterm elections. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Rahm Emanuel, Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2022–2025), Former Mayor of Chicago (2011–2019), Former White House Chief of Staff (2009–2010) Mentioned on the Episode: Emma Graham-Harrison, “ Israeli Former Leaders and Security Chiefs Threaten Legal Action Over ‘Jewish Terrorism’ ,” The Guardian Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio of equity stakes in private companies, including a potential stake in OpenAI. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Jonathan E. Hillman , Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: Jonathan E. Hillman, “ Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments ,” CFR.org Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned its reputation as a store of value. Patterson defends gold’s centuries of institutional credibility and diversification track record, while Mallaby makes the bull case for bitcoin’s finite supply and upside potential. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mentioned on the Episode: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): The largest and most highly traded physical gold ETF, holding bullion in secure London vaults. It carries an expense ratio of 0.40 percent. This is just for information; it is not a trading recommendation. Rebecca Patterson, “ Gold as an Equity Hedge Requires Patience ,” Financial Times “ CLARITY Act Countdown: Crypto Bill Misses July 4 Target, August 7 Deadline Looms ,” Yahoo Finance “ Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 ,” World Gold Council Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and markets, and whether the republic can survive its own cultural divisions. Host: Sebastian Mallaby , Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Martin Wolf , Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Mentioned on the Episode: Martin Wolf, The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: A Diagnosis of Decline and Prescription for Repair Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and examine what may lie ahead for the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh. Hosts: Rebecca Patterson , Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Guest: Roger W. Ferguson Jr. , Steven A. Tananbaum Distinguished Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR); Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman (1999–2006) Description: On this episode of The Spillover, cohost Rebecca Patterson speaks with CFR Distinguished Fellow for International Economics Roger Ferguson about Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which played out largely as predicted. To bring in fresh perspectives, Warsh has created five task forces. They cover communication, the inflation mandate, productivity and jobs, data collection, and a balance sheet framework. Well-led task forces have historically moved the Fed forward, but progress will likely be uneven and slower than hoped. As Roger Ferguson notes, “This is the kind of thing where you want to measure twice, cut once. Once you make the change, you're gonna have to live with it for a period of time.” Current conditions point to a rate hike rather than an ease. Core inflation appears stuck above three percent, energy-driven price pressures from the Iran war remain unresolved, while labor market and financial conditions are resilient. The Fed works with blunt tools and within limited frameworks. Its single national interest rate cannot target individual sectors like housing or specific prices, and its goal remains controlling inflation rather than propping up housing, or equity prices. The Fed also never established a clear framework for when and how to use its balance sheet as a monetary or financial-stability tool, or how quickly to unwind quantitative easing. AI is currently acting as an inflationary force, not a disinflationary one. It is driving a surge in capital expenditures that should push market rates somewhat higher to balance increased demand for capital. Patterson and Ferguson discuss the life of Alan Greenspan—including his daily engagement with the U.S. economy for over fifty years, his habit of tracking unconventional indicators like railroad car loadings, and the fact that he was more often right than wrong on major issues. As Ferguson notes, Greenspan was part of a group of economic policymakers in the second half of the 20th century that helped the U.S. economy grow globally, overcoming the Soviet Union. Mentioned on the Episode: Sebastian Mallaby, “ Alan Greenspan Understood Power and Was Not Afraid to Wield It ,” The Washington Post “ Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement ,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released. The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.